Chris Smith's Thoughts

Over the past several years, quarterback Aaron Brooks while inconsistent as an NFL quarterback has been very good as a fantasy football option. Up until last season's disappointment (although he still averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game), Brooks consistently put up big fantasy numbers each year ranging from a low of 294.8 to a high of 315.4.  Now Brooks has moved on to the Oakland Raiders and he will be slinging passes to star receiver Randy Moss, gifted # 2 receiver Jerry Porter, running back LaMont Jordan and receivers Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel.  The question that needs to be answered is this...

Can Brooks regain his swagger and his confidence that made him not only a viable fantasy option but a high in demand one?

Reasons for optimism in Oakland

Brooks is a fearless quarterback that loves to attack down the field.  Add to that, Moss has been plagued by injuries over the past couple of seasons and is looking to re-establish himself as a legitimate star in the NFL this year.  Moss has the ability to come down with the football whenever it is near him and Brooks will be able to put up good numbers by just getting the ball in the vicinity of Moss throughout the season. Moss turns decent quarterbacks into great ones with his ability to make big plays.

If Brooks only had Moss to lean on, you would see defenses slide over to triple cover Moss but the fact is, this Raiders offense is beginning to look like a juggernaut that will be difficult to slow down.  Jerry Porter will start on the other side of the ball and he is one of the more gifted #2 receivers in the entire NFL.  If defenses attempt to slide away from his side, he has the ability to make them pay for that decision in a huge way.  He should find lots of room to work his magic this season.

Deeper down the depth charts, the Raiders also have a sick combo of Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel backing up the starters and both have the talent to start on other teams.  When the Raiders come out in four receiver sets, you can expect defenses to be struggling to cover all four of these guys well.  Somebody is almost certain to come open.

Finally, from the backfield, LaMont Jordan has really cemented himself as a legitimate starting running back in the NFL.  He has great hands which helped him to be quite valuable in the passing game a year ago and he is a gifted enough runner to help keep the pressure off of the passing game.  He will likely getting 20 carries per game this year which helps to keep the defenses honest.

Why did Aaron Brooks fail in New Orleans?

It appeared that Brooks turned the corner in his development in 2003 when he began to cut down on the silly mistakes and made better decisions on the field.  He tossed 24 touchdowns that year against only 8 interceptions and he was headed for stardom.  However he regressed in 2004 by tossing 16 interceptions and his inconsistent play hurt the squad more than helped them.  The wheels truly fell off last season when he couldn't get on track and tossed only 13 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.  He was benched through the final few games and his time in New Orleans had come to a close.

He seems to get confused by defenses too often at this stage in his career and his inconsistent play can be terribly frustrating for his coaches and teammates alike.

Positives

• Good physical tools
• Has proven in the past he can be an upper-echelon fantasy quarterback
• Excellent offensive skilled position players surround him

Negatives

• Has been extremely inconsistent game-to-game and week-to-week
• Is still in a battle just to emerge as the # 1 quarterback in Oakland
• His confidence may be shaky after a terrible 2005 season

Final Thoughts

Art Shell and the Raiders organization has said that the quarterback position is up for grabs but does Aaron Brooks really have anybody in his way this season on his way to the starting job in Oakland. Let's get real here, Andrew Walters is almost certainly not ready to elevate his game to a starting position and Marques Tuiasosopo has yet to show anything of substance at the professional level. Brooks is clearly the most experienced and most talented signal-caller the Raiders have and he'll almost certainly get a chance out of the gate. He may continue to struggle with consistency but at the same time, he should have no problem racking up fantasy points within an offense that could be amongst the most explosive in the entire NFL. Don't be afraid to target Brooks in round six or later in your fantasy draft as he could certainly elevate into a top five placing this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

nshelat1:
I wont debate that their schedule gets exponentially harder as weeks progress but taking a look at the first four weeks- theres a serious chance for great numbers here and at this point early in the season, he probably wont be fearing losing his job. In my opinion, he could easily be a top-5-10 fantasy qb comming out of week 5- and the possibility that they are .500 is significant. Personally I think he will lose his job somewhere down the line but if youre looking to get value out of a late round pick, Aaron Brooks might be a great spot start any of the first 5 weeks (4 games)

menobrown:
To me, losing his job is the only thing that is going to keep him from posting monster numbers. I'd also like to add he can put up huge stats and still lose his job. Big difference between a good fantasy QB and a good QB and I suspect Brooks is more the former.

toxicbees:
Aaron Brooks put up great stats for the Saints but was killing them at the same time. If the Raiders lose a bunch of games early under Brooks, you can bet they'll make the change to Walter around their bye week. Oakland only won 4 games last season, and if they start heading in the same direction this year they'll give up on Brooks and try to rebuild with Walter. My prediction for Brooks this year:

Aaron Brooks Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Chris Smith	3723	24	16	160	1
Message Board Consensus	3841	26	16	268	3