Jason Wood's Thoughts

I'm a seller of Drew Brees this year, and am somewhat surprised by the positive expectations I've seen floating around the fantasy world. Don't get me wrong, I'm not going to dismiss what Brees accomplished in the last few seasons. But there is far too much risk in drafting him this year for my tastes.

The Shoulder -- Do we know the shoulder is OK? He says he'll be fine, but we heard that song and dance with Chad Pennington a season ago. Yet he hasn't taken a hit yet, he hasn't had to air a deep pass out to convert a third and long, and he hasn't had to fend off a pass rush while scrambling out of the pocket to make a play. Football is a game of injury, how can you possibly put yourself behind the 8-ball by drafting a guy who is more risky than normal?

The Supporting Cast -- Joe Horn can't be considered a "can't miss" commodity any longer. If he's healthy, he should demolish last year's numbers but at 34 years old, coming off a 654-yard, 1 TD season, he is no longer one of the league's better WR1s. And then who does Brees have beyond Horn? Donte Stallworth is coming off a career season yet the team has tried to trade him all offseason. Devery Henderson, Bethel Johnson and Mike Hass as the primary backups have uncertain value. And most importantly, his tight ends combined couldn't equal the talent of Antonio Gates. About the only asset Brees has in his offensive arsenal is his RB corps: Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush and Michael Bennett. But that's a double-edged sword because the Saints RBs will amass a ton of carries, which in turn takes away passing attempts from Brees.

The Coaching Staff -- In a year when 10 NFL teams changed head coaches, the Saints have one of the least inspiring hires. Sean Payton, who apprenticed under Jim Fassel and Bill Parcells, is hardly an accomplished offensive mind. In both Dallas and New York he had his play-calling duties taken away! His offensive coordinator, Doug Marrone, has never called plays at the NFL level. Good luck with that Saints fans.

The Offensive Line -- The offensive line has the potential to be solid, but it's far from a foregone conclusion. Jeff Faine is a serviceable center, but he's no replacement for LeCharles Bentley. At tackle, the Saints have new starters on both sides, as Jammal Brown has moved from RT to LT, and Jon Stinchcomb steps into RT. Not exactly Jon Ogden and Jon Runyan we're talking about here folks.

The Schedule -- You would think the Saints would have an easy schedule coming off a dismal 3-13 season; and yet, according to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Saints QBs face the 2nd most difficult schedule in terms of projected fantasy points allowed.

The Contract -- I've seen people point to Brees mammoth contract as evidence of the Saints commitment to him, and yet, the contract is actually a one-year deal with a multi-year team option. With a rebuilding team and new coaching staff, don't think for a second the team won't pursue other options after the season if Brees struggles. He has no job security.

The bottom line is, when healthy, Drew Brees was a better quarterback than people gave him credit for. But he's gone from an enviable situation to one of the league's most uncertain. The coaching staff is at best new and inexperienced. He has one proven receiver, who is getting older and coming off an awful year. He has no one remotely approximating Antonio Gates, who made Brees look brilliant in the red zone. Combine that with a bum shoulder and one of the toughest fantasy schedules, and you have to let someone else draft Brees this year.

Positives

• Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister should take pressure off Brees as outlet receivers who can break plays after contact
• The Saints offensive line should be above average
• The Saints defense is likely to struggle again in 2006, meaning Brees will have plenty of chances to win games in a shoot out

Negatives

• Brees' shoulder is untested and far too risky to bank your fantasy season on
• His schedule is brutal
• His receiving corps is questionable, and he has no one like Antonio Gates to make him look good in the red zone

Final Thoughts

Drew Brees finished 11th and 7th among fantasy passers the last two seasons. His current ADP of QB15 has a lot of people screaming VALUE PICK!..yet they couldn't be further from the truth. The key to winning a competitive fantasy league is mitigating risk when possible. In Brees case, he brings all kinds of risk with very little upside. Shoulder + New Team + New Scheme + Unproven Coaches + Questionable WR Corps + Tough Schedule = Let someone else draft him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Winning IS Everything:
Brees will be a question mark this season coming off the rotator cuff injury. That said, he has really performed well the last few years. He seems to have all the intangibles to make him a top tier QB. New Orleans has averaged about 3650 passing yards and around 23 TDs the last four years and I can see those type of numbers again this year. Brees will be a top 10-15 QB with some upside if he can play 16 games.

ShotGunStyle:
The offensive line is a mess in New Orleans. They lost their only Pro Bowler in LeCharles Bentley in the offseason, and traded their veteran LT Wayne Gandy for a safety. With the exception of Jammal Brown, who was just arrested for beating his wife, the Saints have no other solid starters on the line. IMO Drew Brees is going to find out first hand why QBs in New Orleans have never had any consistent success in the 40 year history.

Drew Brees Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3100	20	14	75	1
Message Board Consensus	3167	18	16	80	1