Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

With the departure of David Givens to the Titans, Deion Branch is now the clear number one receiver in the prolific New England Patriots passing offense. Branch is coming off career bests in receptions, yards, and touchdowns last year, but still finished as only the 22nd best fantasy WR. Branch has never had a 1,000-yard season, but that unsurprising given how Tom Brady spreads the ball around to so many different receivers. In fact, the Patriots have not produced a 1,000-yard receiver at all since Brady opened his first season as the starting quarterback.

This year could be different, however, as Brady will not have as many proven targets to spread the ball around to. With David Givens gone, the starting WR opposite Branch will likely be either Reche Caldwell or Chad Jackson. Caldwell, a five-year veteran coming over from the Chargers, has never caught 30 passes in a season. Jackson is a rookie. The Patriots do have a couple of talented pass-catchers at the tight end position in Ben Watson and Daniel Graham; but for the first time since Troy Brown’s heyday, the Patriots may feature a single wide receiver this year much more heavily than the rest, and that receiver is Deion Branch.

Branch is a smallish receiver with excellent hands and quickness, and is a very good runner after the catch. He has a good understanding of the Patriots’ offense, and is adept at finding soft spots in zone coverage. He also gets out of his cuts quickly in intermediate routes and can get separation against man coverage. Unlike some other small receivers, however – such as Steve Smith and Santana Moss – Branch does not play with great strength or aggressiveness, and will not generally outmuscle defenders for the ball in traffic.

Positives

• Patriot WRs as a group have averaged 2,500 yards a season with Tom Brady at quarterback, and Deion Branch is positioned to get the largest chunk of that yardage this season.
• Branch has increased his TD production every year he has been in the league.
• He is coming off his best season as a pro and has the momentum to build on that in 2006.

Negatives

• Since Brady has taken over at QB, there has been no such thing in New England as a “featured WR.”
• Branch has not proven to be very durable. In his four seasons as a pro, he has missed eleven games.
• Branch has never posted a 1,000 yard season, and has only four 100-yard regular-season games in his four-year career.

Final Thoughts

It is natural to think that Branch will improve on his 2005 stats this season. He is entering what should be the prime of his career, and for the first time is the clear number one receiver on the Patriots. He finished as the #22 fantasy WR last season, and is being drafted pretty close to that so far this offseason. That seems to make him a pretty safe pick unless you think there’s a decent chance he’ll regress this year – but that seems unlikely. Another thing to note is that Branch’s regular season stats, which are what most people point to when evaluating a player, do not adequately capture Branch’s true level of performance since many of his best games have come in the playoffs. He has two of the top seven performances in Super Bowl history, and was the league’s leading receiver in the 2004 playoffs. He’s gone over 100 yards four times in 53 regular season games, and another four times in eight playoff games. While playoff games don’t count for fantasy purposes, they do partially reflect a player’s talent and ability, and should not be ignored when evaluating a player’s future fantasy potential. Taking everything into account, I see a lot more value than risk in drafting Deion Branch at his current average draft position (WR21 as of 6/30).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Musesboy:
The Patriots are one of the best teams when it comes to attacking the weakness of an opponent. Givens played in 13 games last year and he and Branch both had six games in which they received the most targets with one tied. If the WR2 has a better match up, Brady is not afraid to exploit it.

Branch also had a bad second half to his 2005 season. After producing 45/587/3 in the first eight games, he followed up with 33/411/2 over the second half. His targets dropped from 69 to 56. The Patriots improved from 4-4 in the first half to 6-2 in the second half (including a week 17 loss in a fairly meaningless game). Bruschi will start the season in 2006 and is an important part of the defense. Harrison will be back at some point. I expect the Patriots to have a better year.

nerangers:
Branch is the #1 WR on a team that loves to spread the ball around. He is in his last year of contract, and is looking to be resigned getting #1 WR money. Personally I think this will get done, in about the 5 Million a year range (don't see the Pats paying more than that since #1 WR for the Pats do not put up high numbers). Will he take it though is the question.

He has two situations going for him, which should motivate him.
1. He signs up with the Pats and wants to prove he is worth the money
2. He does not sign and wants to prove to the rest of the league he will be worth #1 WR money next year.

mlball77:
I think it will be interesting to see how the passing game shakes out in NE in 2006. The addition of Caldwell and Chad Jackson give Brady solid options to replace what NE lost at the WR position. Honestly, I expect the same old Brady... spreading the ball around with cunning efficiency. Branch should be the primary threat for NE, but due to the aforementioned reason, I think his numbers aren't likely to improve much upon what we witnessed last season.

Deion Branch Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Maurile Tremblay	0	0	83	1163	5
Message Board Consensus	0	0	80	1028	6