Marc Levin's Thoughts

Since taking over the full time job as the Patriots' starting QB, Tom Brady has been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks in the game. In 2002, he finished 9th. In 2003, he finished 11th. In 2004, he finished 10th. Moreover, his per game consistency during that stretch was remarkable - especially in 2004. He rarely had games below 15 fantasy points (7 in 2002, 5 in 2003, 3 in 2004), yet he also rarely had games with more than 25 fantasy points (4 in 2002, 4 in 2003, 1 in 2004). Then, in 2005, Brady leapt to the #2 overall fantasy QB while his consistency remained the same (he had only 4 games under 15 fantasy points and only 4 games over 25 fantasy points in 2005).

One of the most interesting questions to analyze with Brady is "why the jump?"  Was it a "bum year" for QBs? Quite a few QBs suffered serious injury in 2005 and several failed to finish the season as their team's starter. Was Brady a product of others falling off?  I mean, he DID finish ahead of Peyton Manning, for gosh sakes. Or, did Brady have a career year?  If he had a career year, will that trend continue? Or, will the 2006 season find Brady regressing to his 2002-2004 numbers?

The best place to start looking for the cause of Brady's statistical deviation is in his numbers. Brady is a classic pocket passer - he has an efficient 61.8% completion percentage for his career and he has pinpoint accuracy on his deep ball. He leaves the pocket to throw, not run. His 2005 rushing numbers were similar to prior years. He threw more TDs in both 2002 and 2004 than 2005, and he threw fewer INTs in 2001 and 2003. He had more pass attempts in 2002 than 2005, and he had a similar number of pass attempts in 2003. So, it was not an increase in rushing production, pass attempts, or pass TDs that caused Brady's numbers to spike. Two other statistics stand out: (1) Brady's 4110 passing yards in 2005 are significantly higher than prior years; and (2) his 7.8 yards per attempt (YPA) in 2005 matches 2004, but is significantly higher than his career YPA of 7.1.

Now we are getting somewhere. Seems that Brady's leap was primarily due to completions going for longer yardage. Well, why was that?  Nothing stands out when looking at Brady's or the team's numbers. There was a significant drop in the efficiency of the running game, but the numbers were not as bad as 2002 and 2003, when Brady threw for fewer yards per attempt. Moreover, the Pats had a very good run game in 2004, and Brady's YPA that year is identical to 2005. While the Patriots ineffective running game in 2005 caused Brady to throw significantly more than in 2004, he was doing so as efficiently, and for as many yards per attempt, as 2004, a year in which Brady had the support of a decent run game. Even more perplexing is that both Deion Branch and David Givens actually saw their yards per catch DROP in 2005 from the two prior years.

So what?  Well, the "so what" is that we can expect Brady to be as efficient as ever, and to throw for the same YPA, regardless of his run game support - and regardless of how many times he is required to throw the ball. Brady embodies the Pats winning formula - he gets the most out of what is available, and he takes advantage of any opportunities or mistakes provided by the opposing team. That is why I do not believe the Patriots' turnover at receiver (the team lost three receivers to free agency, most notably David Givens) is a sufficient reason to downgrade Brady.  He will make do. Brady has dependable receiving threats in TEs Daniel Graham and Ben Watson, who both cause mismatches underneath, and in WR Deion Branch. Branch is adept at separating from hid defender and he gets downfield quickly. Branch is Brady's favorite target and he finally played a full 16 game season in 2005. That said, Brady could be in trouble if he loses any of those receivers to injury.

After analyzing Brady's statistical leap in 2005, I conclude that Brady is equally likely to approach those numbers as he is to regress to his statistical average. The deciding factors will be the success (or failure) of the running game and the continued health of his top three receiving threats. The running game is important because, if it is successful in 2006, Brady will face fewer 2nd or 3rd and long situations. His YPA would probably come down a bit, thereby affecting his passing yardage. Or, if the run game is effective and Brady's YPA stays high, Brady may have fewer pass attempts and touchdown passes. If the run game does not significantly improve, Brady's 2006 numbers are likely to mirror his 2005 numbers.

At this point in the preseason, the Patriots have a healthy offensive line, a healthy Corey Dillon, and an exciting rookie RB in Laurence Maroney. The signs point to an improved run game and, consequently, a reasonable likelihood that Brady's passing yardage numbers regress a bit towards his statistical averages. Brady is deadly in the red zone. His 28 TD passes in 2004 show that an effective running game will probably not affect Brady's passing TD numbers.

What a fantasy owner needs to decide before drafting Brady is whether he is worth his current ADP as the QB3 and 43rd overall player. Consider Brady's statistical averages from 2002-2004 as his floor. Consider Brady's QB2 finish last year as his ceiling.

If a fantasy owner wants an elite QB, spending a mid-fourth round pick on the third most desirable QB would be a good decision. While Matt Hasselbeck has a slightly lower ADP and a slightly higher probability of returning as a top-5 fantasy QB in 2006, the next four QBs below Brady's ADP carry significant risk, though some may have a higher ceiling than Brady. In 2005, Eli Manning had a poor completion percentage, the second most interceptions in the league, and a horrendous final three games - right in time for the FF playoffs. Donovan McNabb is coming back from a serious injury and his receiving corps is questionable. Mark Bulger is an annual injury risk and how new head coach Scott Linehan's offense will affect Bulger's fantasy numbers is a viable question. The risks surrounding Daunte Culpepper are self explanatory given the severity of his 2005 injury and his change of scenery from Minnesota to Miami. The QB9, according to current ADP, is Jake Delhomme as the 73rd overall player - 30 slots below Brady. A QB9 finish is close to Brady's floor.

If an owner is willing to assume the risks involved with the QBs between Brady's and Delhomme's ADP, then Brady is overvalued as the QB3 and the owner should wait another round before taking a QB. Brady is not overvalued for the owner who wants an elite QB, but does not want to risk a high pick on a player who might finish out of the top-12. Brady is as safe a bet as they come to finishing in the top-10, and 2005 showed he can be an elite QB from both an NFL and a fantasy perspective.

Positives

• 2005 numbers prove that Brady can generate elite QB numbers
• Consistently produces QB1 numbers and has never missed a game
• Running game should be noticeably improved in 2006 over paltry 2005 numbers

Negatives

• Much higher ADP than in previous years
• Could revert to statistical norms of the 9th or 10th best QB rather than an elite, top-5 QB
• Questionable corps of receivers means that an injury to WR Deion Branch, or to either TE, could devastate Brady's numbers

Final Thoughts

Brady is a rock at the quarterback position. He proved that he can produce elite fantasy numbers. He also proved that he can lead his team deep into the playoffs using just his arm if the running back wheels break down. It is tough to find a more consistent fantasy scorer, a more accurate and efficient quarterback, or a more effective team leader than Tom Brady. Even though he carries a relatively high ADP compared to prior years, he is worth the fourth round draft pick because he is a plug and play QB who matches up well against all other fantasy QBs. The QBs with ADPs down to Brady's floor of the QB9/QB10 come with significant risks (though, admittedly, potentially higher upside). While waiting until very late to address the QB position is a viable strategy with such a deep QB class, grabbing Brady after Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer are selected is just as smart a play.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Andy Dufresne:
SSDS - Same stats, different season

Scorehoard:
As a Brady owner I would love to throw out my projections but at this point in time I refuse. Lets just say I'm a bit fearful statistically for him this season. No Givens was not a top notch playmaker but did have nice chemistry and made big catches. Now that is in the hands of a rookie.

Jason Wood (FBG Staff):
On his way to three Super Bowl rings, Tom Brady has evolved from a game day manager to a highly productive fantasy commodity. If you're not going to target Peyton Manning, Tom Brady could very well be the next best option; particularly enticing considering you can land him in the 4th round or later in many leagues.

Tom Brady Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Marc Levin	3815	26	14	72	1
Message Board Consensus	3720	27	14	45	0