Marc Levin's Thoughts

After a Pro Bowl rookie season, WR Anquan Boldin experienced a slump in his sophomore season, which ultimately ended with a knee injury. The hard working Boldin erased any questions about his recovery from that injury with a stellar 2005 season that practically mirrored his rookie output. Boldin has a career 60% catch percentage and is an excellent third down receiver. With a 13.7 yards per catch average in 2006 and 68 of his 102 catches for first downs, Boldin's first down percentage on third down plays was 82.1%. Even with the emergence of 2005 Pro Bowl WR Larry Fitzgerald (the third overall pick in the 2004 draft), Boldin's numbers did not suffer. He was targeted 51 times on third down and Fitzgerald saw 41 third down passes.

The Arizona Cardinals' 1-2 punch at receiver is reminiscent of some of the best tandems in NFL history. There is ample historical support to show that two outstanding fantasy receivers can emerge from the same team. Considering the remarkable similarity in Boldin's and Fitzgerald's 2005 numbers, there is a strong possibility both receivers will repeat as top-10 fantasy receivers in 2006. While the taller and faster Fitzgerald has the inside track to emerge as a top-5 fantasy receiver, an owner could be just as happy with Boldin's fantasy production - especially in point per reception (PPR) leagues. One touchdown to Boldin over Fitzgerald was the only real difference between the players' 2005 fantasy numbers. They share similar liabilities for repeating their TD performances in 2006, but Fitzgerald was the third overall pick in the 2004 draft and he is primed to become the team's primary receiver.

Neither receiver caught more than one TD in any game in 2005, so their fantasy numbers were yardage driven. Boldin actually had more 100 yard games (8 versus 7) and fewer games with less than 10 fantasy points (3 versus 5). For you PPR league owners, he also had more 8+ catch games (10) than Fitzgerald (6).

The impact of the Cardinals' free agent signing of RB Edgerrin James must be considered before projecting Boldin's 2006 numbers. Indianapolis Colts WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne were strong fantasy players even with James' 361 touches in 2003, 385 touches in 2004, and 404 touches in 2005. Harrison never fell out of the top-10 for fantasy receivers. Wayne, however, was the #20 receiver in 2003 and the #21 receiver in 2005. His #8 finish in 2004 was the result of QB Peyton Manning's record setting passing TD year (Wayne caught 12 TDs). QB Kurt Warner is no longer a TD machine, even if the porous Cardinals' offensive line can keep him upright.

James' presence is likely to create a significant reduction in the Cardinals' passing numbers (the team led the league in 2005 with an astounding 670 pass attempts, 419 completions and 4723 passing yards). James' most damaging impact, however, could be on Boldin's receiving TDs. All but one of James' TDs in 2003 through 2005 came from inside the 20. A more subtle impact could come from James' efficiency on first and second down. If James creates a significant number of short yardage situations on third down, the necessity to throw on third down is reduced. Moreover, nearly 40% of Boldin's 2005 targets were on first down. With James' presence, throwing on first down will become the rarity rather than the rule.

On the other hand, the Cardinals are not expected to sport a particularly tough defense and they play quite a few potent offenses - they will play Seattle and St. Louis twice and they drew the AFC West and NFC Central as their out of division opponents. James' effect on the passing game could be minimal whenever the Cardinals face an opponent who jumps out to an early lead. Come back efforts and shoot out games are often a receiver's best friend for fantasy numbers.

The final consideration with Boldin is Warner's health. Warner is aging and brittle. If he is injured in 2006, it will likely be rookie Matt Leinart manning the QB position. The potential woes for a WR with a rookie QB are too apparent to list. Currently, Boldin is, on average, being selected as the 8th WR and the 24th overall player in fantasy drafts. The open questions regarding Boldin's fantasy numbers make selecting him at his current average draft position (ADP) a risk.

Positives

• In two full seasons of play, Boldin was targeted 336 times for 203 catches, 2779 yards and 15 TDs
• The Cardinals' pass offense was one of the league's best in 2005
• With a Pro Bowl receiver Larry Fitzgerald as the other starter, Boldin is unlikely to see an inordinate number of double teams
• Boldin's per game fantasy scoring was extraordinarily consistent in 2005

Negatives

• Signing James is highly likely to create a significant reduction in passing situations for the team
• James is a red zone machine who could steal TD opportunities from Boldin
• Fitzgerald, who is the taller and bigger receiver, had more receiving TDs (10) than Boldin (7) in 2005, and the changes to the team make it unlikely that Boldin will see an increase in his TD opportunities for 2006

Final Thoughts

It is difficult to see an increase in Boldin's TD totals for 2006. It is also easy to imagine fewer targets and a lower YPC average when James' impact on the team is considered. While Boldin will probably remain a significant fantasy player, Fitzgerald is the receiver who is more likely to emerge as the team's big receiving threat. That could easily result in Boldin being relegated to a possession receiver role with a significant reduction in his YPC (Edge creating shorter third down situations would result in a possession receiver more like Hines Ward or Marty Booker than Marvin Harrison). With a projected reduction in targets, YPC, and TDs, Boldin is a distinct risk with a second or third round selection in a 12-team draft. In PPR leagues, Boldin's value is significantly closer to his projected draft position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Rev:
I think it's safe to say that Fitz is Denny's favorite, ever since he was the ball boy back in Minnesota. But Boldin demonstrated a shocking level of power, speed, and toughness last year, especially after the catch. I just don't see Fitz overtaking him. IMO, Boldin demonstrated that he is the #1 when healthy, although long term, Fitz' youth and talent make him valuable.

Aabye:
Even if the Cards throw considerably less (dropping from 42 to 35 attempts per game), and Boldin loses 2 targets per game, his targets still only drop from 171 last year to 163 in 2006. I'm anticipating a slight dropoff in targets per game, similar reception and YPR numbers, and similar TD numbers.

Dancing Bear:
I do not think that folks are not giving Boldin enough credit here. He had the same stats as Fitzgerald in 2 less games. He was their "go to" receiver when they needed a First Down. All but one of his TD's was 20 yards or greater; Fitzgerald had only 4 TD's of 20 yards or greater.

Frenchy Fuqua:
What worries me most about spending an early pick on Boldin, Fitzgerald or Edge is the health of Kurt Warner. The Cards had McCown to replace him last year and he did a respectable job. Leinart should be bigtime someday but not yet. I just don't see Warner staying upright for 16 games.

Anquan Boldin Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Marc Levin	0	0	92	1232	6
Message Board Consensus	0	0	93	1285	8