Jason Wood's Thoughts

Drew Bledsoe’s inaugural season at the helm of America’s Team was an unquestionable success by fantasy standards. He completed more than 60% of his passes, threw for 3,639 yards and 23 touchdowns. Bledsoe finished the season as the 6th best fantasy quarterback, his first top-10 season since finishing 5th in 2002.

While his full season production was excellent, there is a cautionary underpinning that bears scrutiny. As the season wore on, Bledsoe’s play fell off considerably. Take a look at his passer rating, sorted by month:

• 103.7 – September
• 93.1 – October
• 77.1 – November
• 71.4 – December

Why did his performance suffer as the season wore on? The offensive line went from adequate to below par. LT Flozell Adams succumbed to a season-ending injury and the Cowboys had precious little depth behind him. Any quarterback would suffer the consequences of an increased pass rush, but Bledsoe is more susceptible than most because of his limited mobility.

The good news for Bledsoe (and his fantasy owners) is the Cowboys made efforts to fortify the offensive line this offseason.

• LT Flozell Adams, the anchor of the line, is healthy
• OG Kyle Kosier was added in free agency via Detroit
• RT Jason Fabini (a former Parcells favorite) was signed in free agency via New York

Right about now many of you are saying…”The offensive line is important, we know that…but when are you going to talk about Terrell Owens?” Fair enough. The big news this year in Dallas is the addition of Terrell Owens; arguably the league’s best receiver. When Owens is properly motivated (i.e., paid and on good terms with his coaches), there is no greater combination of size, speed and red zone efficiency at the position. Any way you slice it, a healthy Owens is a game changer.

Every QB that’s played with Owens enjoyed their best fantasy season when Owens was at his best:

• Steve Young (1998) – Young’s 422 fantasy points (2nd all time) came in Owens’ breakout year, when he caught 67 receptions for 1,097 yards and 14 touchdowns
• Jeff Garcia (2000) – Garcia finished as the 2nd best fantasy QB scoring almost 400 points. Owens caught 97 passes for 1,451 yards and 13 TDs
• Donovan McNabb (2004) – McNabb scored 350 fantasy points, finishing as the 3rd ranked fantasy QB. Owens caught 77 passes for 1,200 yards and 14 TDs in just 14 games

So with a healthy, happy Owens in the stable, it would be foolhardy to think Bledsoe isn’t in line for a consecutive top-10 fantasy season, at a minimum. Remember, the Cowboys have other weapons at their disposal, and Owens’ presence makes them all more effective. Defenses won’t be able to double team Terry Glenn (who is coming off a career year). Jason Witten will have more space to make plays over the middle (as Owens stretches the field and draws more zone coverage deep). And defensive fronts won’t be able to put 8 men in the box against the Cowboys running attack.

Positives

• Terrell Owens fortifies an already potent receiving corps
• The offensive line has added depth and Flozell Adams returns to anchor the line
• When given protection, Bledsoe is among the league’s best pocket passers

Negatives

• Bledsoe’s performance suffers materially when he’s not given adequate protection
• Terrell Owens can be a quarterback’s worst nightmare if they butt heads; and Bledsoe has shown an unwillingness to placate WR egos in the past
• Bledsoe flourished in his first year in Buffalo and then regressed terribly in subsequent years; might we all be too optimistic about his 2nd season in Dallas?

Final Thoughts

As long as Terrell Owens stays healthy, and the offensive line holds up, I find it hard to believe Drew Bledsoe won't be one of the league's better fantasy quarterbacks. Certainly you shouldn't overpay for him on draft day, but if you look to stockpile RBs and WRs in the early rounds, Bledsoe should be on your short list in the mid rounds of your draft.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Wade:
The loss of a "Parcells Guy" in Keyshawn Johnson is a big hit to the offense, but adding elite WR Terrell Owens should more than make up for it. Last year, Keyshawn Johnson had 11.8 yards per catch and one touchdown every 12 receptions. Over the last three years (with two different teams) Terrell Owens has averaged 15.2 yards per catch and one touchdown every 7 receptions. Granted, Owens hasn't played but one complete season in the last seven years, but for the 14 or so games he does play, he should give the Dallas passing offense (and Bledsoe) increased potency.

jurb26:
Everyone and their mother has been pimping Drew since the signing of TO. Bledsoe is no secret at all. He is coming off a very stronge season and his team just added maybe the best WR in the league. We have already seen what stud WR talent like TO can do for a QBs numbers. I still worry about Bledsoe's sever lack of mobility in his older age and slow release of the ball though.

Here's what I take from the predictions made in this post so far:

- No one has predicted Bledsoe will throw for fewer TDs than last year
- Only one person has predicted he would throw for less yards (about 100 yards less than last year)

For a 34 yo QB who played in all of his teams games and who was #6 in FBG scoring, I find that fairly remarkable.

Drew Bledsoe Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3800	25	17	20	0
Message Board Consensus	3870	27	16	43	1