Chris Smith's Thoughts

What we have learned over the past ten years is that the running back position in Denver is for the most part interchangeable. We have seen Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis and Reuben Droughns all have considerable success at different times over the past decade. With Mike Anderson having moved on to the Baltimore Ravens this season, there is an opportunity for a new running back to step into the limelight this year. The battle will be fierce between former first-round bust Ron Dayne who looked good in limited action last year, Cedric Cobbs a promising youngster who has yet to have an impact in the NFL and Tatum Bell who has terrific quickness and explosiveness but has yet to showcase the maturity and consistency necessary of a full-time player. This is the season that Bell must take the proverbial 'bull by the horn' but is he capable of elevating his play? That is the million dollar question as whoever emerges as the guy this season will almost certainly be an upper-echelon fantasy producer.

Background on Tatum Bell

Bell emerged as a legitimate prospect in 2002 with the university of Oklahoma State when he rushed for 1,096 yards and scored 11 touchdowns. He followed that up with a 1,286 yards and 16 touchdown performance the following year and his stock continued to climb.

When Bell was drafted by the Broncos in 2004, many experts and fantasy owners alike were convinced he was on the fast track to success. Much of his collegiate career appeared to mirror what Clinton Portis did at that level and everyone knows the success that Mike Shanahan running backs have enjoyed over the years. He has ideal size, excellent quickness and is pretty good at hitting it up in the hole.

He had the occasional flash of brilliance as a rookie including a 123-yard, 2 touchdown performance against the Miami Dolphins in week fourteen but by and large was disappointing in year one and didn't seem to have the drive and maturity necessary to be a full-down back.

Last year, Bell once again teased us all with flashes of greatness. From week five to week eight, he had three 100-yard games and scored 5 touchdowns and had fantasy owners everywhere scrambling to pick him up. However after week eight, he fell off the map once again and rumors of a poor attitude began to circulate.

Looking ahead to this year

You have to believe it is now or never for Tatum Bell to emerge as the man in Denver. He only has to beat out the enigmatic collegiate great but professional disaster Ron Dayne and Cedric Cobbs who has done nothing in the NFL to stake him claim as a fantasy gem.

However there have been rumblings throughout this offseason that the Broncos have soured on him and were exploring trade options. It is obvious that he has disappointed his current coaching staff with his effort and consistency but that isn't to say he can't turn it around in 2006. Here is what he had to say in regards to his winning the starting job.

"I feel like I can be the man. This year, I am not taking no for an answer. If I stay healthy, I feel like I'll be the man, that's just how I see it." However the roster has another candidate for the job, this time it's RB Ron Dayne. "I know there is a lot of talk about how it doesn't matter who starts because we're both going to split time. But I don't want it to be like that. I want to be the guy, come out when I need a blow. I would like those carries."

It's encouraging to see him confident and having his sights set on earning the starting nod in 2006. However you wouldn't expect him to say anything else at this point in the season and there is no question he is in a dogfight with Ron Dayne when it comes to touches.

Positives

• Great mix of size, speed and quickness
• Broncos' system is known for producing high-end fantasy running backs
• Still young enough (25-years old) to turn his career around

Negatives

• Has been very inconsistent throughout his first two seasons
• Was rumored to be on the trading block this off-season
• His work-ethic and maturity has been called into question

Final Thoughts

It is so tempting to pick him up this year with a 4th to 5th round pick as his upside could greatly exceed that draft slot. You look at who he has to beat out to earn the starting nod and you can't help but feel he has a great chance to do so. Ron Dayne did look good with limited touches last year but he simply doesn't have the explosiveness and ability to take it the distance at any time that Bell does and Bell's worst case scenario at this point seems to put him in a 10-15 carry per game role with the club. Build your fantasy roster with solid players in the first few rounds and then look at a Tatum Bell type of player that can push your fantasy roster over the top. High-risk, high-reward can often result in a championship campaign.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Pony Boy:
Everything coming from the Broncos decision makers have said is that Bell is a situational RB. The DEN beat writers have confirmed exactly that. Bell has an injury history that is significant for a 2nd year RB, and his production really falls off the table after 10 carries. Everything supports what the DEN coaching staff & management is saying - he'll be limited in his touches despite his home run ability. Dayne is number 1 on the depth chart, and despite Bell's going public & complaining nothing is changing.

SSOG:
Shanahan and Sundquist say that Dayne is the guy and Bell will be limited. That could change if Bell or Sapp or Mike Bell or someone steps up their game, but they've had a lot of time to evaluate these players, and this is where they stand at the moment. Personally, I'd rather bet on how things are than how they might one day be.

Demons:
Tatum Bell is a great situational back. If you try to make him something he is not, such as a full-time starter, you will lose his production to injury sooner rather than later. Look no further than Quentin Griffin to find an example of what happens to a Denver RB that is made to do things his body can't handle. Some guys Bell's size can handle the wear and tear, Bell isn't one.

JAA:
Tatum could be a 1500/17 guy or a 900/8 guy. I like him somewhere in the middle for a safer bet. I will say, that while I have made a projection here for posterity, I do think he will be closer to the 1500/17 guy than 900/8.

moleculo:
Bell does not have the power to gain the short yardage, and he does not have the hands to be a reliable receiving threat out of the backfield. He does have the speed to convert a clever draw, or some other handoff when the D is expecting something completely different, but that's about it.

Tatum Bell Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Chris Smith	220	1080	7	23	190	1
Message Board Consensus	173	912	7	22	173	0