Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Once upon a time, Tiki Barber would fall into the second or third rounds of a redraft league and be a wonderful present to a patient drafter.  Unfortunately, those days are long gone.  Now everyone knows just how big of an offensive force that Barber is in the NFL.  Tiki Barber may be on the wrong side of 30, but he shows no signs of slowing down. 

Barber has been a Top 15 fantasy running back for six consecutive years, and he has improved to finish in the Top 4 in three of the past four seasons.

There are many reasons to like Barber once again this season.  First, he has proven to be extraordinarily durable.  He has not missed a game in over four years, missing two games in 2001, and those two games were the only he has missed since his rookie year in 1997.  He contributes to the offense as a runner and as a receiver, averaging over 5 yards per carry and just under 10 yards per reception last year.  Barber is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and has become a staple of the Giants offense.  He is a workhorse, racking up over 2,400 touches for his career including over 400 last season.

That workload is part of the worry if you draft Barber for your team this season.  At age 31, there are far more examples of running backs who have experienced steep declines beyond age 31 than there are success stories.  Only three rushers over 31 (John Riggins, Curtis Martin, Walter Payton) have scored over 250 fantasy points in a season, and even that number represents a significant decline from Barber’s 301 points in 2005.

Another concern regarding Barber is the workload.  He will surpass 2,500 touches this year, and again only five running backs have finished in the Top 5 running backs following that milestone (Curtis Martin, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Walter Payton and Marcus Allen).

Lastly, Barber lost a lot of touchdown chances last season to rookie RB Brandon Jacobs.  Once again the Giants decided to bring in a big running back to take some of the workload from Barber, but Jacobs struggled to be much more than a goal line specialist.  Despite his limited role, Jacobs took seven rushing touchdowns of five yards or less away from Barber.

Positives

• Durability – Barber has missed just two games since 1997, an incredible streak. He has not missed a game in over four seasons.
• Consistency – he has finished in the Top 15 of NFL running backs for six consecutive seasons, and now has finished in the Top 4 in three out of last four years.
• The Giants continue to improve their offense under QB Eli Manning. As he matures and progresses the passing game, the run game will see more opportunities and running lanes.

Negatives

• RB Brandon Jacobs was brought in last year to shoulder some of the workload for Barber, but all he really did was vulture away seven short yardage touchdowns. That trend may very well continue this season.
• The Giants have a much tougher schedule this year than last season, which may adversely impact Barber’s production.
• Barber’s age (31) and workload (approaching 2,500 touches) represent milestones that typify the decline for many running backs.

Final Thoughts

There is little doubt in my mind that the 2005 version of Tiki Barber would be worth a selection in the middle of the first round.  The bigger question I have is if he will approach those numbers again this season, regress to his historical averages, or decline due to age or lost carries to Brandon Jacobs.  Historically he has been perfectly healthy and productive, but at some point he has to slow down. 
The New York Giants rode his production to the division championship last season, but that was against an easier schedule and division than they are slated to face this year.  While my projections have Barber scoring just 10 rushing touchdowns, even that number frightens me.  The Giants gave Brandon Jacobs seven scores last year, five of which were from the one yard line, and Jacobs was not exactly prolific in punching the ball in from short yardage. 

My projections are based upon a healthy Tiki Barber against a tougher schedule.  Those statistics would produce 280.5 fantasy points (330.5 with PPR) and place him again in the Top 5 overall for running backs in either scoring system.  With an ADP of #5 overall, Tiki Barber will be worth a selection in the Top 5 if and only if he approaches last year’s numbers.  The probability of Barber being more productive than last season is much smaller than the chances of him failing to reach that level.  What that tells me is that taking him as the fifth overall choice is hardly a slam dunk.  I would consider other options at this spot, but the other running backs at this draft position all have risks. 

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

H.K.:
This is it. This is finally the year that Tiki gets the love he so richly deserves. Let's look at all the positives:

1) The Giants have nobody else to play at RB. Ward and Jacobs are grinders that sorely limit the offense when they are on the field. Barber will get a huge workload again this season.

2) Potent offense keeps defenses from keying on Tiki. Eli, Burress, Shockey, Toomer, a fine OL, all mean tons of room for Barber to operate.

3) Barber is indestructible. He has missed only 2 games in eight seasons and none in the past four years. His off-season training regimen has improved his strength and conditioning, and he is just now entering his prime.

4) He does it all, catches passes, runs inside, outside, short-yardage, goal line, etc. so he scores from anywhere on the field, at any time.

lawyer:
In 2005, Barber finished only 21 yards away from winning the rushing title, with 1860 yards. It was a stellar year for him, and I can only think of a few things that could hamper his success this year.

Cons:

1. Age - Entering his 10th year in the NFL, and at 32 years old, durability could become a concern for Tiki this year. However, over his entire career he has only missed 6 out of 144 games, so he's definitely a strong, durable guy.

2. Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs is definitely Coughlin's goal line back of choice, as evidenced by his 7 TD's in only 38 attempts last year. I don't see Jacobs as a threat to Tiki between the 20's, but once they get near the goal line, Jacobs will get the call. If Tiki had gotten those goal line carries and the TD's, he would have had 16 rush TD's, which would have put him at 4th in the NFL, behind only Alexander, Johnson, and Tomlinson.

Pros:

1. Maturation of Manning (MOM) - Last season, Eli Manning showed a great deal of improvement in the area of maturity and poise. That can only be expected to improve as he gets older, and while this may hurt Tiki's reception numbers (due to Manning's declining reliance on him as a safety valve), but it also increases Manning's ability to stretch the field and force opposing defenses to respect what he can do. This spells open gaps for Tiki, and he's one of the best in the game when he's in the open field.

2. The Plax Factor - To go along with the MOM theory, the Plax Factor will stretch the field and force opposing defenses not to stack the box against Barber, which can only mean good things. Shockey is also a legitimate deep ball threat, and once again, that can only be good for Tiki.

Musesboy:
Tiki Barber has been one of the most undervalued fantasy players for several seasons. Some have pointed to his lack of goal line carries, others have claimed that his age will slow him down, and many thought that Eli Manning would be so ineffective last year that teams would be able to concentrate on stopping Barber. Wrong, wrong and wrong. Last year, Barber accumulated the second-highest number of yards of any RB in the history of the NFL with a total of 2390.

The only thing that can possibly cause Barber to drop in drafts yet again is his age: He is 31 years old. It is all too easy to cite examples showing how quickly RBs decline once they reach the age of 30.

Tiki Barber Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jeff Pasquino	310	1525	10	50	500	3
Message Board Consensus	315	1481	8	51	488	2