Jason Wood's Thoughts

Shaun Alexander went from a "can't miss" fantasy prospect to a "historic" performer last year. On the way to winning the league's MVP, Alexander had the 5th best fantasy season by a RB in league history.

• 370 rushes
• 1,880 yards
• 5.1 YPC
• 27 rushing TDs
• 15 receptions
• 78 receiving yards
• 1 receiving TDs
• 364 fantasy points

Those numbers were enough to carry Alexander to a league rushing title, a league MVP award and a Super Bowl appearance. Combined with his excellence the last few years, Alexander is in the conversation for some big-time NFL records.

• His 89 rushing TDs put him 12th all-time -- In the last five years, Alexander has rushed for no less than 14 TDs. Were he to match that mark in 2006, he would have 103 career rushing TDs; which would be good enough for 6th ALL TIME (passing contemporaries Curtis Martin, Marshall Faulk and Jerome Bettis). Another season or two of healthy output and Alexander will trail only Emmitt Smith in career rushing TDs.

• His 100 combined TDs (rushing/receiving) ranks 16th all-time -- Alexander has no less than 16 TDs in any season over the last five. Were he to match that output in 2006, he would be tied with John Riggins for 8th all-time.

The bottom line is that Alexander is not just a good fantasy back, he's a great NFL back. Say what you will about his "effort" but I don't know how anyone can assail his productivity; or his steady improvement.

• His carries have gone up four straight seasons (to a league-leading 370 in 2005)
• His rushing yards have gone up four straight seasons (to a league-leading 1,880 yards in 2005)
• His yards per rush has improved four straight seasons (from 4.0 to 5.1)
• He hasn't missed a game in his career

On the risk side of the ledger, the big news is the loss of Steve Hutchinson. Hutchinson signed a 7-year, $49mm contract with the Minnesota Vikings. There's no question that Hutchinson is irreplaceable; he is after all the league's best offensive guard. HOWEVER, I think it would be a grave mistake to overstate the value of any one offensive lineman, particularly an interior lineman. Whoever the Seahawks put at LG, he won't be Hutch's equal, but the Seahawks line will still be among the NFL's best. Walter Jones is a perennial All-Pro, and the rest of the line is proven and deep. Projected backups Chris Spencer, Tom Ashworth, Ray Willis and Rob Sims could (and would) start for many teams.

So are you saying not to expect a fall-off this year?

ABSOLUTELY NOT! No back coming off a historic season should be expected to match those numbers in the following year; Alexander included. But, for the sake of argument, let's project Alexander's numbers to fall across the board by varying percentages and see where that would rank over the last five years:

Alexander scored 364 fantasy points last season (using FBG scoring):

• Assuming a 15% Reduction -- 309 fantasy points would been no worse than RB5 and would've averaged RB3 over the last five years
• Assuming a 25% Reduction -- 273 fantasy points would been no worse than RB6 and would've averaged RB5 over the last five years
• Assuming a 35% Reduction -- 237 fantasy points would been no worse than RB10 and would've averaged RB8 over the last five years
• Assuming a 45% Reduction -- 200 fantasy points would been no worse than RB18 and would've averaged RB13 over the last five years

What more could you ask for? If Shaun Alexander's numbers fall by a third, he would still be a top 10 back in virtually any circumstance. Meanwhile, he's scored no less than 262 fantasy points over the last five seasons. Barring injury, Steve Hutchinson or not, Alexander is the closest thing to a "can't miss" runner this crazy sport allows.

Positives

• Alexander has finished no worse than 6th among fantasy backs in the last five seasons, and has been the top-rated fantasy back each of the last two seasons
• The Seahawks offensive personnel return largely intact including All Pro QB Matt Hasselbeck, WRs Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram and TE Jerramy Stevens; which means that Alexander should continue to get plenty of running room and chances in the red zone
• The offensive line remains one of the NFC's best, with or without Hutchinson

Negatives

• Alexander's increasing rushing production has coincided with a steady decline in his receiving totals
• Alexander is going to cost you a top-3 pick in redrafts, so you can ill afford for the wheels to come off if you plan to remain competitive
• The Seahawks armed Alexander with a long-term deal that gives him financial security; will he have the hunger he displayed prior to getting his windfall?

Final Thoughts

Shaun Alexander is one of the "Big 3" this year joined by LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson as the guys atop everyone's drafts. Ultimately if you have the 1st overall pick, it comes down to choosing between these three studs. I believe compelling arguments could be made for all three, but if you're trying to minimize your downside, I believe Alexander is the way to go. Larry Johnson has a new coaching staff, the retirement of LT Willie Roaf, and a limited history of production (nine games last year) working against him. LaDainian Tomlinson has a questionable offensive line, first year starting QB, and a weaker supporting cast meaning defenses can key on LT game in, game out. Draft Alexander with the knowledge that, barring injury, you're virtually assured of top-10 production; and that's if he has a down year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

diesel7982:
I expect we'll see the SEA offense more closely resemble the relatively pass heavy offense we saw in the 2nd half of last year, rather than the run heavy offense we saw in the 1st half. That said, SAlex still has one of the easiest schedules in the league, and is still one of the premier backs in the game.

Banger:
I don't think it's a stretch to say SA's #'s will go down but his floor is way above most RB's ceiling. The Hawks still have a good balanced offense, have a good line (maybe not the best anymore), play in an awful division, have a good defense, he's the unquestioned #1, he never misses a game, do I need to go on? He's as solid as solid can be and I can see taking him anywhere among the top 3 but no later.

eriadoc:
Every year, posters find some reason to say why Alexander is going to have a down year or not be worthy of the #1 pick overall. The man has scored 98 TDs in five seasons. No one else in the history of the NFL has ever scored 98 TDs in a five-year span.

Shaun Alexander Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	330	1500	15	25	165	1
Message Board Consensus	340	1610	17	25	171	2