Mark Wimer's Thoughts

When Edgerrin James defected to Arizona, it signaled a new era for the Indianapolis Colts. They entered the NFL draft with Dominic Rhodes penciled in as their starter for 2006, but bolstered the RB stable with the addition of Joseph Addai (30th pick overall), a product of LSU. Addai is the guy that the Colts look at as their RB of the future, a player with the potential to do all of the varied things an Indianapolis back must do. As well as rushing, the Colt's RBs must be able to block in passing situations and have good receiving skills - it takes a well rounded RB to play in the Indianapolis offense. Heading into 2006, though, the Indianapolis back-field looks like it will be a running back by committee, at least in the early weeks of the season.

Dominic Rhodes, who threw down for 233/1104/9 rushing (a NFL record for an undrafted rookie RB) and 34/224/0 receiving in his first year, 2001, has the advantage of lots of repetitions in the Colts' offense and 5 years of NFL experience. Rhodes will get a hefty share of the carries unless Addai really explodes in the pre-season. Said Bill Polian after drafting Addai: "You wouldn't expect a rookie to step into a team like this ... a team that has been winning big. You'd expect him to play some but not have to carry the whole load. We've been spoiled here. We see this as a two-man position now."

That said, though, Addai has looked very strong during the spring mini-camps and organized team activities - his team-mates on the defense have been impressed with his size, burst/acceleration, and quickness during the workouts. Rhodes was less-than-impressive during 2005, averaging a mere 3.0 yards per carry and only 6.8 yards per reception (a career low in rushing yards per carry - prior to 2005, he'd averaged 4.7, 4.2, and 4.8 yards per rush and 6.6, 10.3 and 12.0 yards per reception during the other years he's played for the Colts). There are indications after Addai's showing in the mini-camps that he could step into the featured role fairly quickly, if he proves that he's assimilated the offense during training camp. The Colts love his ability to take a short dump-off pass and turn it into a big-gainer. However, we haven't seen Addai play at full speed with the pads on yet, so right now his potential as a featured back remains just that - potential. Not many backs can do what Edgerrin James did as a rookie (James scored the most fantasy points of any NFL RB during his rookie campaign with the Colts, back in 1999).

Positives

• The Colts' offense is fueled by the superlative Peyton Manning, and an outstanding cadre of pass-catchers at WR and TE. There is no way for opposing defenses to stack the line against the Colts, ensuring whichever Colt back that ends up carrying the ball will find some seams to run through.
• The Colts' offensive line has suffered no significant subtractions during the off-season, ensuring continuity in the trenches - that's a luxury that few NFL teams have from year to year, and should help the offense continue to play at a high level as a whole.
• Rhodes has proven his ability to play at this level in the past, and has a shot at seizing the top spot in Indianapolis - this circumstance should provide plenty of motivation for him to play at the top of his abilities during 2006. Addai has a chance to become a starting NFL running back if he plays well, and is likely the future for Indianapolis. Both players have a lot at stake during the coming year, which should keep their intensity at a high pitch.

Negatives

• If the situation in Indianapolis remains mired in a running-back-by-committee, which is a likely scenario, then neither Rhodes nor Addai is going to be a top-shelf fantasy RB during 2006.
• The Colts' offensive line, while enjoying continuity from 2005 to 2006, was sub-par when it came to run-blocking last year, averaging 3.7 yards per carry as a team (24th in the NFL). That's not good enough to generate top yardage statistics from week to week - the Colts were 16th in rushing yards last season, with 1,703 as a team.
• Addai is a rookie prospect, and was not a featured back during his tenure at LSU. It remains to be seen if he can handle a full slate of 25+ touches per game for the length of a 16 game season - and he still has a steep learning curve to overcome when it comes to learning the Colts' complex offense.

Final Thoughts

The Colts' offense figures to be a powerhouse again during 2006, and if the team settles on either Rhodes or Addai as their featured back, that guy will be a fantasy force (especially in point-per-reception leagues, as the Colts' backs catch a lot of balls). However, heading into training camp the running-back-by-committee option looks like a real possibility, especially early in the season while Addai gets his feet under him at the NFL level. It may be awhile before we see an established, featured back in Indianapolis, which will mean limited fantasy production from the Colts' RBs as individuals this year. Fantasy owners will want to watch this battle as it develops in training camp - if either guy runs away with the position, then a fantasy gem could be waiting for savvy owners in Indianapolis this season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

BlueOnion:
To be honest, I don't know as much about Joe Addai as I do other rookie running backs, but Polian does have a knack for being successful with first round picks. Having said that, the Colts are a high-end offense and look no further than the franchise player Peyton Manning. So much of the Indy offense revolves around Peyton Manning and more pointedly, his protection. The current book on the Colts is to blitz their offense early and often (see San Diego & Pittsburgh of 2005). Reading blitzes, picking up blitzes and being on the same page as the offense will take precedent over any pure running back skill Rhodes or Addai bring to the table. I suspect Rhodes will get 2/3 of all the snaps (at worse), largely because he has played within the Colts offense so long, will make minimal mistakes when reading and picking up the blitz.

djcolts:
I think they will split carries in the first half of the year, and Addai will eventually get a bigger share as the season goes along. What little I've seen in the press about Addai since the draft is an AP article on Manning - with Manning implying heavily that Addai is going to be the main guy at RB, and an AP article saying that Colts defenders say that Addai is faster and stronger than expected.

The Ref:
This is a classic situation where I think we, as serious FF players, get ourselves in trouble. Most of us do not draft until late Aug, well into the pre season. Making projections are a very good tool to get yourself ready for the upcoming season. But at the end of the day (well today anyway) it's much too early to make any sort of real projection on this situation. The only thing you can do at this point is promise yourself to keep an open mind. I have seen to many situations where someone will try and make a bold projection now, only to stand by said projection when it comes draft time and end up making a bad pick when the evidence closer to the regular season shows you should have either selected the other guy or stayed clear altogether.

Family Matters:
IMO-Indy clearly did not feel comfortable with Rhodes as their RB. If they did they wouldn't have drafted a RB in the 1st round. They could've waited until later in the draft but they didn't. And there must be a reason for that. The only back they liked better was Maroney from what I've read.

With that said, they have raved about what they've seen in him so far. He has handled himself quite well. He runs well. He blocks well. He catches well. He picks up the blitz well. How many first round RB's do teams keep on the bench? How many times has Indy found gold in their first round RB's in recent history with say Edge and Faulk? I'd say they have a good track record.

Joseph Addai Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Mark Wimer	110	500	4	12	180	1
Message Board Consensus	178	860	6	24	237	1