|
Top 24 at the RB Position Over a Five-year Period
|
|
Posted 8/19 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
|
Every fantasy football owner out there knows how important it is to land running
backs who can finish as viable starters for their fantasy league. Finding running
backs capable of finishing top-three, top-twelve and even top-twenty four can
help an owner emerge with the glory, the money and the accolades that only a
title can bring. As easy as it sounds in theory though to emerge from your draft
with two legitimate fantasy starters, the reality is that the top of the running
back board changes year to year making it quite difficult to pinpoint which
players will stay at a high level, which will tumble from their perch and which
players will emerge as new fantasy football threats.
The tables below display the top-24 running backs in fantasy football since
the 2001 season (both in total fantasy points scored and fantasy points per
game).
Total Fantasy Points Scored
|
2005
|
|
Rk
|
Running Back |
Tm
|
GP
|
FP
|
FP/G
|
|
1
|
Alexander |
sea
|
16
|
363
|
22.7
|
|
2
|
Johnson L. |
kan
|
16
|
335
|
20.9
|
|
3
|
Tomlinson |
sdg
|
16
|
318
|
19.9
|
|
4
|
Barber T. |
nyg
|
16
|
305
|
19.1
|
|
5
|
James |
clt
|
15
|
268
|
17.9
|
|
6
|
Portis |
was
|
16
|
244
|
15.3
|
|
7
|
Johnson R. |
cin
|
16
|
227
|
14.2
|
|
8
|
Jordan |
rai
|
14
|
224
|
16.0
|
|
9
|
Jones Th. |
chi
|
15
|
202
|
13.5
|
|
10
|
Anderson M. |
den
|
15
|
201
|
13.4
|
|
11
|
Jackson |
ram
|
15
|
197
|
13.1
|
|
12
|
Dunn |
atl
|
16
|
188
|
11.8
|
|
13
|
McGahee |
buf
|
16
|
173
|
10.8
|
|
14
|
Droughns |
cle
|
16
|
172
|
10.8
|
|
15
|
Parker |
pit
|
15
|
172
|
11.5
|
|
16
|
Dillon |
nwe
|
12
|
169
|
14.1
|
|
17
|
Davis D. |
htx
|
11
|
167
|
15.2
|
|
18
|
Westbrook |
phi
|
12
|
165
|
13.8
|
|
19
|
Williams C. |
tam
|
14
|
162
|
11.6
|
|
20
|
Brown C. |
oti
|
15
|
160
|
10.7
|
|
21
|
Jones J. |
dal
|
13
|
151
|
11.6
|
|
22
|
Bell |
den
|
15
|
151
|
10.1
|
|
23
|
Brown R. |
mia
|
15
|
144
|
9.6
|
|
24
|
Foster |
car
|
15
|
143
|
9.5
|
|
2004
|
|
Rk
|
Running Back |
Team
|
GP
|
FP
|
FP/G
|
|
1
|
Alexander |
sea
|
16
|
307.0
|
19.19
|
|
2
|
Barber T. |
nyg
|
16
|
300.0
|
18.75
|
|
3
|
Tomlinson |
sdg
|
15
|
288.0
|
19.20
|
|
4
|
Martin C. |
nyj
|
16
|
278.0
|
17.38
|
|
5
|
Davis D. |
htx
|
15
|
262.0
|
17.47
|
|
6
|
James |
clt
|
16
|
257.0
|
16.06
|
|
7
|
Dillon |
nwe
|
15
|
252.0
|
16.80
|
|
8
|
Johnson R. |
cin
|
16
|
226.0
|
14.13
|
|
9
|
McGahee |
buf
|
16
|
208.0
|
13.00
|
|
10
|
Westbrook |
phi
|
13
|
206.0
|
15.85
|
|
11
|
Portis |
was
|
15
|
202.0
|
13.47
|
|
12
|
Holmes |
kan
|
8
|
198.0
|
24.75
|
|
13
|
Green A. |
gnb
|
15
|
197.0
|
13.13
|
|
14
|
Droughns |
den
|
16
|
196.0
|
12.25
|
|
15
|
Dunn |
atl
|
16
|
194.0
|
12.13
|
|
16
|
Pittman |
tam
|
13
|
192.0
|
14.77
|
|
17
|
McAllister |
nor
|
14
|
184.0
|
13.14
|
|
18
|
Bettis |
pit
|
15
|
181.0
|
12.07
|
|
19
|
Jones Th. |
chi
|
14
|
180.0
|
12.86
|
|
20
|
Taylor F. |
jax
|
14
|
175.0
|
12.50
|
|
21
|
Jones K. |
det
|
15
|
167.0
|
11.13
|
|
22
|
Goings |
car
|
16
|
164.0
|
10.25
|
|
23
|
Smith E. |
crd
|
15
|
163.0
|
10.87
|
|
24
|
Brown C. |
oti
|
11
|
157.0
|
14.27
|
|
2003
|
|
Rk
|
Running Back |
Team
|
GP
|
FP
|
FP/G
|
|
1
|
Holmes |
kan
|
16
|
373
|
23.3
|
|
2
|
Green A. |
gnb
|
16
|
345
|
21.6
|
|
3
|
Tomlinson |
sdg
|
16
|
344
|
21.5
|
|
4
|
Lewis J. |
rav
|
16
|
311
|
19.4
|
|
5
|
Portis |
den
|
13
|
275
|
21.2
|
|
6
|
Alexander |
sea
|
16
|
269
|
16.8
|
|
7
|
McAllister |
nor
|
16
|
264
|
16.5
|
|
8
|
Taylor F. |
jax
|
16
|
236
|
14.8
|
|
9
|
Williams R. |
MIA
|
16
|
232
|
14.5
|
|
10
|
James E. |
clt
|
13
|
221
|
17.0
|
|
11
|
Henry |
buf
|
15
|
216
|
14.4
|
|
12
|
Davis St. |
car
|
14
|
208
|
14.9
|
|
13
|
Williams M. |
min
|
16
|
187
|
11.7
|
|
14
|
Davis Dom. |
htx
|
14
|
186
|
13.3
|
|
15
|
Barber T. |
nyg
|
16
|
186
|
11.6
|
|
16
|
Faulk M. |
ram
|
11
|
177
|
16.1
|
|
17
|
Barlow |
sfo
|
16
|
175
|
10.9
|
|
18
|
Martin Cu. |
nyj
|
16
|
169
|
10.6
|
|
19
|
Johnson R. |
cin
|
13
|
164
|
12.6
|
|
20
|
Westbrook |
phi
|
15
|
161
|
10.7
|
|
21
|
Duckett |
atl
|
16
|
153
|
9.6
|
|
22
|
George E. |
oti
|
16
|
149
|
9.3
|
|
23
|
Pittman |
tam
|
16
|
147
|
9.2
|
|
24
|
Thomas A. |
chi
|
13
|
142
|
10.9
|
|
2002
|
|
Rk
|
Running Back |
Team
|
GP
|
FP
|
FP/G
|
|
1
|
Holmes |
kan
|
14
|
373
|
26.6
|
|
2
|
Williams R. |
MIA
|
16
|
324
|
20.3
|
|
3
|
Tomlinson |
sdg
|
16
|
307
|
19.2
|
|
4
|
Portis |
den
|
16
|
289
|
18.1
|
|
5
|
Alexander |
sea
|
16
|
272
|
17.0
|
|
6
|
McAllister |
nor
|
15
|
270
|
18.0
|
|
7
|
Barber T. |
nyg
|
16
|
264
|
16.5
|
|
8
|
Henry |
buf
|
16
|
259
|
16.2
|
|
9
|
Garner |
rai
|
16
|
256
|
16.0
|
|
10
|
George E. |
oti
|
16
|
226
|
14.1
|
|
11
|
Taylor F. |
jax
|
16
|
220
|
13.8
|
|
12
|
Lewis J. |
rav
|
16
|
219
|
13.7
|
|
13
|
Green A. |
gnb
|
14
|
217
|
15.5
|
|
14
|
Faulk M. |
ram
|
14
|
209
|
14.9
|
|
15
|
Staley |
phi
|
16
|
205
|
12.8
|
|
16
|
Dillon |
cin
|
16
|
203
|
12.7
|
|
17
|
Bennett M. |
min
|
16
|
201
|
12.6
|
|
18
|
Martin C. |
nyj
|
16
|
188
|
11.8
|
|
19
|
Dunn |
atl
|
15
|
184
|
12.3
|
|
20
|
Hearst G. |
sfo
|
16
|
183
|
11.4
|
|
21
|
Shipp |
crd
|
15
|
179
|
11.9
|
|
22
|
Stewart J. |
det
|
14
|
171
|
12.2
|
|
23
|
Smith A. |
nwe
|
16
|
171
|
10.7
|
|
24
|
James E. |
clt
|
14
|
152
|
10.9
|
|
2001
|
|
Rk
|
Running Back |
Team
|
GP
|
FP
|
FP/G
|
|
1
|
Faulk M. |
ram
|
14
|
341
|
24.4
|
|
2
|
Holmes |
kan
|
16
|
277
|
17.3
|
|
3
|
Green A. |
gnb
|
16
|
264
|
16.5
|
|
4
|
Alexander |
sea
|
16
|
262
|
16.4
|
|
5
|
Martin C. |
nyj
|
16
|
248
|
15.5
|
|
6
|
Dillon |
cin
|
16
|
231
|
14.4
|
|
7
|
Tomlinson |
sdg
|
16
|
220
|
13.8
|
|
8
|
Williams R. |
nor
|
16
|
218
|
13.6
|
|
9
|
Smith A. |
nwe
|
16
|
213
|
13.3
|
|
10
|
Davis St. |
was
|
16
|
194
|
12.1
|
|
11
|
Rhodes D. |
clt
|
15
|
187
|
12.5
|
|
12
|
Hearst G. |
sfo
|
16
|
185
|
11.6
|
|
13
|
Thomas A. |
chi
|
14
|
178
|
12.7
|
|
14
|
Barber T. |
nyg
|
14
|
168
|
12.0
|
|
15
|
Smith L. |
MIA
|
16
|
168
|
10.5
|
|
16
|
Mack |
jax
|
16
|
164
|
10.3
|
|
17
|
Garner |
rai
|
16
|
160
|
10.0
|
|
18
|
Alstott |
tam
|
16
|
157
|
9.8
|
|
19
|
George E. |
oti
|
16
|
152
|
9.5
|
|
20
|
Staley |
phi
|
13
|
147
|
11.3
|
|
21
|
Bettis |
pit
|
11
|
142
|
12.9
|
|
22
|
Pittman |
crd
|
15
|
141
|
9.4
|
|
23
|
Dunn |
tam
|
13
|
136
|
10.5
|
|
24
|
Smith M. |
atl
|
16
|
135
|
8.4
|
Noteworthy tidbits from the above table...
- Shaun Alexander has finished inside the top six for an amazing five straight
seasons
- LaDainian Tomlinson has finished inside the top eight for five straight
seasons
- Tiki Barber has had five straight seasons inside the top-15
- Portis has had four straight seasons inside the top-12
- Alexander, Tomlinson, Barber, Corey Dillon and Warrick Dunn are the only
RBs who appear in both the 2001 and 2005 top twenty-four chart
From the 2001 to 2002 season:
- Only four of the top-12 players in 2001 managed to finish inside the top-12
the following season. However, 10 of those 12 players managed to finish inside
the top-24. One of those 12 missed due to injury (Stephen Davis) while the
other (Dominic Rhodes) dropped because the true starter (Edgerrin James) returned
from injury. Only two of the top-12 failed to finish inside the top-24 the
following season.
- Of the players ranked 13th to 24th in 2001, three managed to jump into the
top-12 while seven dropped out of the top-24 entirely.
- So a total of 9 out of the 24 players failed to finish inside the top-24
the following year
From the 2002 to 2003 season:
- An impressive nine running backs in the top twelve in 2002 managed to stay
top-12 in 2003. Only one dropped out of the top-24 entirely
- Of the players ranked 13th to 24th in 2002, only two managed to jump into
the top-12 while eight dropped out of the top-24 entirely.
- Again this time, 9 of the top-24 failed to reach this standard the following
year
From the 2003 to 2004 season:
- Only five of the top-12 running backs during the 2003 season managed to
say inside the top-12 in 2004. Eight of the players stayed inside the top-24
while four players dropped out entirely
- Of the players ranked 13th to 24th in 2003, five managed to make the jump
into the top-12 while five dropped out entirely
- A familiar number is surfacing as for the third straight time, 9 of the
24 players failed to reach the top-24 in the following season
From the 2004 to 2005 season:
- Six of the top-12 running backs in 2004 managed to finish inside the top-12
in 2005. Only two players dropped out entirely
- Of the players ranked 13th to 24th in 2004, only two managed to leap into
the top-12 in 2005. An ugly 8 players dropped out entirely
- This time 10 out of 24 failed to reach the top-24 level the following year
2001 - 2005 summary:
- In total, only 59 out of 96 players managed to stay within the top-24 from
one year to the next
- The 2003 season had nine running backs repeat as top-12 performers. In the
other three years, only 15 of the 36 managed that feat showcasing that it
is difficult to do
- However, 81.3% of the running backs in the top-12 in a year managed to finish
inside the top-24 in the following season. Only 11 players failed to finish
inside the top-24
- Ten new players appeared in the top-12 from 2002 to 2005 (meaning 25% of
the top-12 list is populated by new players on average)
- Running backs managed to go from top-24 in one year to top-12 the following
season only 12 of 48 players made the transition.
- 58.3% of the running backs who finished 13th to 24th in one season, dropped
out of the top-24 in the next season.
Why did they drop out? (top-12)
- 24 running backs finished in the top-12 one year only to drop out of the
top-12 the next. Of those players...
- 7 failed to reach that level due to injury
- 1 failed to reach the mark due to a starter returning from injury (Dominic
Rhodes in 2002)
- 1 retired the following season (Ricky Williams in 2004)
- 4 had age catch up to them, limiting their effectiveness the following
season
- 11 simple had a regression back to the mean and their numbers slipped
- For the most part it appears that injuries and aging has a big impact on
players being able to reach the top-12 one season and failing to do so the
next
What it means for this season?
The past five seasons tell us that on average...
- 61.5% of the players within the top-24 one season repeat the following year...
(roughly 15 players per year)
- 50.0% of the players within the top-12 one season repeat inside the top-12
in the following year (6 players per year)
- Only 41.7% of the players ranked 13th to 24th one season repeat as top-24
in the next year (5 players per year)
- Only 25.0% of the time do players elevate from 13th to 24th one season to
top-12 in the next (just 3 players per year)
- Only 18.7% of the players in the top-12 one season fail to reach the top-24
in the following season (just 2 players per year)
Top 24 players from the 2005 season
|
Rk
|
Running Back |
TM
|
GP
|
FP
|
FP/G
|
Comments |
|
1
|
Alexander |
sea
|
16
|
363
|
22.7
|
Should remain top 12 |
|
2
|
Johnson L. |
kan
|
16
|
335
|
20.9
|
Should remain top 12 |
|
3
|
Tomlinson |
sdg
|
16
|
318
|
19.9
|
Should remain top 12 |
|
4
|
Barber T. |
nyg
|
16
|
305
|
19.1
|
Should remain top 12 |
|
5
|
James |
clt
|
15
|
268
|
17.9
|
Could fall to 13-24 |
|
6
|
Portis |
was
|
16
|
244
|
15.3
|
Could fall to 13-24 |
|
7
|
Johnson R. |
cin
|
16
|
227
|
14.2
|
Should remain top 12 |
|
8
|
Jordan |
rai
|
14
|
224
|
16.0
|
Could fall to 13-24 |
|
9
|
Jones Th. |
chi
|
15
|
202
|
13.5
|
Could drop out of top 24 |
|
10
|
Anderson M. |
den
|
15
|
201
|
13.4
|
Should drop out of top 24 |
|
11
|
Jackson |
ram
|
15
|
197
|
13.1
|
Should remain top 12 |
|
12
|
Dunn |
atl
|
16
|
188
|
11.8
|
Should drop out of top 12 |
|
13
|
McGahee |
buf
|
16
|
173
|
10.8
|
Could leap into top 12 |
|
14
|
Droughns |
cle
|
16
|
172
|
10.8
|
Drop out of top 24? |
|
15
|
Parker |
pit
|
15
|
172
|
11.5
|
Should remain 13-24 |
|
16
|
Dillon |
nwe
|
12
|
169
|
14.1
|
Drop out of top 24? |
|
17
|
Davis D. |
htx
|
11
|
167
|
15.2
|
Drop out of top 24? |
|
18
|
Westbrook |
phi
|
12
|
165
|
13.8
|
Should remain 13-24 |
|
19
|
Williams C. |
tam
|
14
|
162
|
11.6
|
Should leap into top 12 |
|
20
|
Brown C. |
oti
|
15
|
160
|
10.7
|
Drop out of top 24? |
|
21
|
Jones J. |
dal
|
13
|
151
|
11.6
|
Drop out of top 24? |
|
22
|
Bell |
den
|
15
|
151
|
10.1
|
Should stay in top 24 |
|
23
|
Brown R. |
MIA
|
15
|
144
|
9.6
|
Could rise into top 12 |
|
24
|
Foster |
car
|
15
|
143
|
9.5
|
Drop out of top 24? |
Revised top-24 list for this season:
|
Rk
|
Running Back |
Team
|
'05 (top 24)
|
|
1
|
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD
|
3
|
|
2
|
Larry Johnson |
KC
|
2
|
|
3
|
Shaun Alexander |
Sea
|
1
|
|
4
|
Tiki Barber |
NYG
|
4
|
|
5
|
Steve Jackson |
StL
|
11
|
|
6
|
Ronnie Brown |
MIA
|
23
|
|
7
|
Rudi Johnson |
Cin
|
7
|
|
8
|
Clinton Portis |
Was
|
6
|
|
9
|
Cadillac Williams |
TB
|
19
|
|
10
|
Kevin Jones |
Det
|
NR
|
|
11
|
Willis McGahee |
Buf
|
13
|
|
12
|
Reggie Bush [r] |
NO
|
NR
|
|
13
|
Edgerrin James |
Ari
|
5
|
|
14
|
Brian Westbrook |
Phi
|
18
|
|
15
|
LaMont Jordan |
Oak
|
8
|
|
16
|
Warrick Dunn |
Atl
|
12
|
|
17
|
Chester Taylor |
Min
|
NR
|
|
18
|
Willie Parker |
Pit
|
15
|
|
19
|
Tatum Bell |
Den
|
22
|
|
20
|
Cedric Benson |
Chi
|
NR
|
|
21
|
Jamal Lewis |
Bal
|
NR
|
|
22
|
Fred Taylor |
Jac
|
NR
|
|
23
|
DeShaun Foster |
Car
|
24
|
|
24
|
Marion Barber III |
Dal
|
NR
|
Players who were dropped out include...
- Thomas Jones, Bears (9th)
- Mike Anderson, Ravens (10th)
- Reuben Droughns, Browns (14th)
- Corey Dillon, Patriots (16th)
- Domanick Davis, Texans (17th)
- Chris Brown, Titans (20th)
- Julius Jones, Cowboys (21st)
- Two top-12 players dropped out of the top-24 entirely (Thomas Jones and
Mike Anderson)
- Five players ranked 13th to 24th last year dropped off of my list (Droughns,
Dillon, Davis, Brown and J. Jones)
- Three top-12 players last season dropped to 13th to 24th this season (James,
Jordan and Dunn)
- Three 13th to 24th players last season elevated to top-12 this season (R.
Brown, C. Williams and W. McGahee)
- One rookie slid into the top-12 (Reggie Bush)
Obviously the most difficult thing to do is to determine which of the players
each season will slide off the list. You may or may not agree with whom I bumped
off of my top-24 for the upcoming season so feel free to tweak based on what
you think will happen in 2006.
I hope you found this article helpful. If you have any thoughts, questions
or general comments on it, feel free to contact me at smith@footballguys.com.
Thanks for reading.
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Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players