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Week 9 Sleeper ReportThis article is a weekly look at player generally ranked outside the realm of every week starters. The players covered here usually fall into two categories: those with a good matchup or those who have an increased opportunity or role this week due to injury or a coaching decision. Occasionally, a player is included here despite having a bad matchup, but for other reasons. Each position is split into categories with players listed in descending order of perceived value. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to provide some data analysis that will give you more information to make tough decisions with your starting lineup each week. Good luck and please feel free to provide feedback. Your comments are welcome.
Quarterback
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Romo looked great on Sunday night leading the Cowboys to a 25-point 4th quarter on the road. He threw for 270 yds, 2 TDs and an interception. This week’s matchup, the Redskins, has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Vince Young had one of his best performances thus far against Washington in week six while Byron Leftwich threw for 289 yards and 3 TDs against them in week four. Young is the only QB who didn’t throw for 200+ yards and a TD. If Romo can sustain his level of play exhibited in his first “two” games, this might be his last appearance in this column. He could be a solid top 10 option the rest of the season, if not slightly higher.
It’s hard to get excited about the possibility of starting J.P. Losman in your lineup regardless of the competition. But this isn’t just any week. This week, the Bills face the Green Bay Packers – the team that has allowed the most fantasy points to QBs this season. The game is also in Buffalo so no worries about crowd noise and playing on the road. Opposing QBs are averaging the following stat line against GB: 21.4 for 37.6, 291 yards, 1.7 TDs, 1 INT, 11 yds rushing, 0.3 TDs.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
McNair bounced back from a few poor outings in a row with a solid game against the Saints last week. This week, against the divisional rival Bengals, McNair is looking to sustain his performance with another strong game. Michael Vick cut through the Bengals defense like a hot knife through butter last week with 291 yards passing, 3 TDs and 55 rushing yards to boot. The Bengals have allowed 2+ passing TDs in four straight games. For the season, opponents are averaging 226 passing yds/gm and 1.4 TDs/gm.
Bruce Gradkowski made his first NFL start on the road in New Orleans about a month ago. He completed 20-of-31 for 225 yards with 2 TDs and no interceptions, while adding 19 yds rushing. Last week, Steve McNair completed 17-of-23 for 159 yards with 2 TDs, no interceptions and scored his first rushing TD as a Raven along with 23 yards rushing against the Saints. Opponents are averaging 243 yds, 2.1 TDs and 0.6 INTs with 28 yds rushing and 0.3 TDs against the Saints this year. This time around, Gradkowski has the benefit of playing at home. Whether he can match his previous results remains to be seen.
Johnson is coming off his worst performance of the season in a MNF home loss to the New England Patriots in which he was picked off three times. The good news is that we expect Johnson to rebound quickly, especially against a 49ers defense that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy point to opposing QBs this year. Opponents are averaging 258 passing yds, 2.1 TDs and 0.6 INTs per game and a 65% completion percentage. Keep in mind, Johnson is more of a game manager than a gunslinger at this point in his career. Temper any enthusiasm you might have accordingly.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Titans are allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year, which is better than in years past. After a poor start, the Titans pass defense appeared to be improving after they held four straight teams under 200 yds passing including Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Daunte Culpepper and Mark Brunell. Then last week, the Texans benched David Carr after he lost two fumbles and threw an interception, but Sage Rosenfels came to the rescue with 186 yards and 3 TDs. The two QBs combined for the following stat line: 33-of-46 for 299 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs and 13 yds rushing. Last year, Leftwich completed 22-of-38 for 258 yds, 3 TDs, no INTs, plus 9 yds rushing and a TD against Tennessee in week 11. In week 17, the Jaguars had already clinched a playoff spot and David Garrard didn’t play the whole game. Garrard produced 128 yards on 10-of-16 passing while Quinn Gray went 8-of-14 for 100 yards with 2 TDs.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Harrington might get sacked 6 times and throw 5 interceptions against the Bears defense, but he could also throw for 250 yards and a couple TDs, too. If you’re in a league that doesn’t subtract points for turnovers, then strangely, Harrington might be a valid reach. Excuse me if we have to say that a few times for it to sink in. Harrington against da Bears? Harrington is averaging 304 passing yds, 1 TD and 2.3 INTs per game in his first three starts as a Dolphin this year. The Bears have allowed two QBs to throw for 200+ yards this year (out of 7) and they’ve allowed 4 passing TDs in the last three games – none before that.
Running Back Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The Patriots dynamic duo are looking like great plays against the soft Colts run defense this week. The Colts are allowing 5.4 yards per carry to opposing RBs this year. Last week, Mike Bell took over the running duties for an ailing Tatum Bell and ran wild against the Colts to the tune of 15 carries, 136 yards and 2 TDs. The previous week, Clinton Portis ran for 43 yards and caught 4 balls for 21 yards before leaving midway through the game. Ladell Betts finished the game with 10 carries, 52 yards and 5 catches for 41 yards. In week five, Travis Henry trampled over the Colts for 123 yards on 19 carries while LenDale White combined for 55 yards in a backup role. In week 3, Fred Taylor had 73 yards while Maurice Jones-Drew tallied 135 total yards and a TD.
Lewis enters this week’s game ranked 34th amongst RBs using FBG scoring. After his touches were dwindling amidst complaints of not getting the ball enough, HC Brian Billick canned their offensive coordinator and assumed the play-calling duties himself. The result? Lewis carried the ball 31 times this week for 109 yards against the Saints, who have defended the run much better this year compared to the Bengals. Granted, the Bengals did a good job of limiting the Falcons and Panthers running attacks in the past two games, but prior to that, the Bucs, Patriots and Steelers had strong games against them. If Lewis gets the rock 20+ times this week, he should be productive enough to be your RB2 or flex starter.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Despite being a backup to Fred Taylor, Jones-Drew actually ranks 23rd amongst RBs in FBG scoring after eight weeks. This week, the Jags face a Titans defense that is allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Just looking at what they’ve allowed to backup RBs, you can get a good idea of what to expect this week from Jones-Drew – 9 carries, 44.6 yds rushing, 1.6 catches and 13.6 yards receiving. This includes two games where the backups produced almost no stats what-so-ever. Look for another strong outing from Taylor and Jones-Drew as the Jags likely will continue to pummel their opponents on the ground as their passing game has struggled because of injuries to their key players.
Tatum Bell’s status this week is the primary question. If I had to guess right now, I’d say that I wouldn’t expect much from Tatum given that he has a sprained big toe on both feet (turf toe). Mike Bell became the featured runner in the 2nd half of the Broncos game on Sunday and he ran wild against a poor Colts run defense. Granted, the Steelers are much better than the Colts, but monitor the situation this week. It would be a minor miracle if Tatum’s turf toe problems clear up before Sunday. So, expect to see more Mike Bell this week. Having an opportunity if half the battle, but what he can do against a tough Steelers run defense remains to be seen.
Portis did not practice on Monday because of a sprained ankle he suffered in the Redskins week 7 game against the Colts. He was in a walking boot last week. Portis did some light work on the side, but unless he improves the rest of the week, we may see more of Ladell Betts than of Clinton Portis against the Cowboys. In week 2, Betts started for the Redskins against Dallas. He ran for 40 yards on 11 carries and he had 7 catches for 57 yards. He may not have as many touches this time around, but he’s a worthy sleeper in the event that Portis remains limited come Sunday.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Vernand Morency has been ruled out of this week’s game against the Bills. Ahman Green is back and playing well, but the Packers are doing their best to give him plenty of breathers and get their other backs involved in games to keep Green fresh. Herron will be the #2 back this week. As for the matchup, the Bills have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Two of the last three starting RBs topped 100 rushing yards and they’ve allowed 5 TDs in those three games. Cedric Benson ran for 48 yards and 2 TDs against them while Laurence Maroney only managed 30 yards.
Travis Henry was the first starting RB not to gain 100 total yards against Houston. Jacobs isn’t starting, but he does get all of the touches near the goal line where he’s punched in four TDs. The Texans defense has allowed seven rushing TDs in as many games. Jacobs has a TD in each of the Giants last three games and 40+ yards in four straight games.
Norwood’s role continues to grow as the season progresses. In his last four games, Norwood’s yardage totals look like this: 70, 69, 11 and 106. He’s produced 50+ yards in five out of seven games played. The Lions, this week’s matchup, are without Pro Bowl DT Shaun Rogers again this week. In their last game, they allowed 178 rushing yds to Leon Washington and Kevan Barlow, not to mention 3 TDs. Norwood should get around 10 touches this week and produce 50 or more yards with an outside shot of scoring a TD.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Shaun Alexander has been ruled out of this week’s game against the Raiders, so Morris has at least one more shot to produce something for those of you who grabbed him off waivers over a month ago. As far as the matchup goes, the Raiders aren’t a pushover, despite their poor W-L record. They’ve actually defended the run well of late – holding the Steelers, Cardinals and Broncos to an average of 21.7 carries, 68.3 yards and only 1 TD. Earlier in the season, the Raiders allowed 100+ rushing yds to three of the first four RBs who played against them, but it appears that they’ve shored up some of their weakness so Morris isn’t a slam dunk to perform well in this game by any means. In his five starts, Morris is averaging 15.6 carries, 40 yards and 1 catch for 3.4 yards with no TDs. That’s not exactly a confidence builder, now, is it?
LaMont Jordan (back) isn’t healthy and most likely he won’t be 100% going into this week’s game against Seattle either. That means we should see more from Justin Fargas, and to a lesser extent, Zack Crockett. In the last two games, Fargas has 41 carries for 121 yards. Not great, but at least he’s getting around 20 touches per game in Jordan’s absence. This week, Fargas may be able to find more running room against the Seahawks. In the last two games, Seattle’s run defense has been obliterated by Larry Johnson (39-155-3, 2-26-1) and Chester Taylor (26-169-1, 4-19-0). At the very least, if Fargas handles the bulk of the work, he should do better than he’s fared in the last two games.
Wide Receiver
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Jump on this cat while you can. Henry has 3 TDs in his last two games and he’s been targeted 30 times in the four game he played, averaging 4 catches for 64.5 yards. The Ravens defense has allowed eight TDs and four 100 yd games to opposing WRs in their last five games. Opposing WRs are averaging 8 targets, 4.1 catches, 72 yards and 0.6 TDs against Baltimore on the season. Henry isn’t starting, technically, but he’s arguably their best weapon in the red zone.
Ok, I realize Furrey isn’t exactly a sleeper in the classic sense. He’s ranked 24th using FBG scoring. That said, he’s facing the Falcons this week, who just happen to have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year. No. 1 WR Roy Williams will likely be engaged in a battle with DeAngelo Hall, so look for Furrey to be targeted frequently producing better numbers than usual.
Kennison is ranked 32nd (YTD) using FBG scoring, so he’s another WR who probably is one grade above the classic sleeper definition. That’s fine. The point here is that Kennison is facing a Rams defense that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Four different WRs have gone for 100 yards while six have scored TDs against them. Three of those players mentioned scored and produced 100 yds. Kennison is the Chiefs top WR, so expect good production this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
The Bills face the Green Bay Packers at home this week. The Packers are the 2nd best matchup for WRs based on fantasy points allowed. Three different WRs have gone for 100+ yards against them while 10 different WRs have scored against them. Lee Evans will draw the most attention from the Packers secondary, so don’t be surprise if Price or Josh Reed make some plays and produce useable fantasy numbers in this game. One last stat for you: The Packers D has allowed 32 completions for 20+ yards and 7 completions for 40+ yards – leading the league in both categories.
Porter returned to the Raiders starting lineup last week catching one ball for
19 yards. This week, they face a Seahawks team that has struggled defending
the pass. Seattle has allowed the 2nd most passing yards in the league, not
to mention 12 passing TDs. They are the 3rd best matchup for WRs. It’s a
hard to get behind Porter at this stage with just one game under his belt,
not to mention just one catch, but it’s a great matchup, so he may be worth
a gamble.
The Rams defense that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Eddie Kennison gets most of the targets and production and now Tony Gonzalez
is back to his usual production, so one has to wonder if there’s enough love
to go around for Parker. It’s a legitimate concern. His production has been
spotty, at best, but he’s sort of a regular in this column and the matchup
is simply screaming for him to be included again. We don’t want to let him
down, so here he is. The bottom line is that Parker is a gamble. He’s
capable of being productive, but he’s only the 3rd or 4th option in the
Chiefs passing game, so some days he’ll get it done and other days he won’t.
This game could be 21-0 in the first quarter. In other words, the Dolphins will be throwing the football a lot in this game. The Dolphins are averaging 300+ passing yds/gm since Harrington replaced Culpepper. The Bears have allowed four TDs to opposing WRs in the last three games. Starting WR are averaging 8.6 targets, 5.1 catches, 58.7 yards and 0.3 TDs against the Bears. Welker is the consistent, safe option. Booker is less consistent, but he will occasionally have a big game. He’s coming off a seven catch, 110 yards, one TD game against the Packers.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Packers are the 2nd best matchup for WRs based on fantasy points allowed. Three different WRs have gone for 100+ yards against them while 10 different WRs have scored against them. Lee Evans will draw the most attention from the Packers secondary, so don’t be surprise if Price, Roscoe Parrish or Josh Reed make some plays and produce useable fantasy numbers in this game. One last stat for you: The Packers D has allowed 32 completions for 20+ yards and 7 completions for 40+ yards – leading the league in both categories. Parrish injured his hamstring in week 6. He was active in week 7, but he didn’t record a catch. Coming off the bye week, we’re expecting Parrish to be closer to 100%, but check his injury status before considering him in your lineup just to be safe.
In the last four games, Ashley Lelie’s targets have increased slowly, but steadily – 2, 3, 5 and 6. He has produced 55+ yards in three of those four games, but he’s yet to find the end zone. The Lions have allowed the 2nd most passing TDs in the league (14). Eight of those went to WRs (all different WRs). Lelie caught a 28-yard pass on the first play of last week’s game and he’s the ideal big play WR for a QB like Vick who can extend plays and get the ball downfield with his strong arm. Don’t be surprised if Lelie breaks into the scoring column this week.
Greg Jennings missed last week’s game and may miss this week’s game with a high ankle sprain allowing Martin to make his second start in a row for the Packers. He was targeted four times in the last two games each. He’s produced 2-25-0 and 2-60-0. The Bills have allowed five TDs to opposing WRs in their last three games. If Jennings doesn’t go this week, Martin is worth a shot in deeper leagues.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Lions have allowed the 2nd most passing TDs in the league (14). Eight of those went to WRs (all different WRs). White seems to be losing ground on Ashley Lelie as the team’s No. 2 WR, but he remains a talented young player who has the ability to make a big play at any time. Of course, we all know what Falcons WRs are like as fantasy WRs – inconsistent and unreliable. That said, White could be a decent reach in this game knowing the Lions are vulnerable over the top and White – along with Lelie and Michael Jenkins – could certainly be good for a big play in this spot.
After watching Tom Brady and the Patriots shred the Vikings defense on Monday night like they weren’t even on the field, Arnaz Battle became a late addition to this week’s column. The Vikings were previously more of a tough matchup than a good matchup, but one game on national television can sway one’s mind. Granted, the 49ers aren’t the Patriots and Alex Smith isn’t Tom Brady, but they are an improving, young team and this game is in San Francisco. The Vikings need a wake up call after Monday’s loss, but the 49ers might not play the patsy. Antonio Bryant could be very productive, but Battle could be useful, too… especially in a PPR format.
Wilford has been a non-factor this year and a consistent non-performer who has (stubbornly) graced this column several times. It’s hard to keep waiting for it to happen. At this point, going with Wilford is literally taking a wild guess and hoping that he scores a TD. He did that in both games against Tennessee last year. Wilford is averaging 4.7 targets, 2.4 catches and 33 yards per game with no TDs. The Titans are the eighth best matchup for WRs.
Tight End
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The opposing TE scored a TD in five of the 49ers’ seven games. Tight ends are averaging 4.6 targets, 3.4 receptions, 43.1 yards and 0.9 TDs per game against San Francisco. Wiggins is 21st in FBG scoring, averaging 4.3 targets, 3.1 catches and 26.3 yards per game with 1 TD. Expect him to outperform his YTD average production in this game.
Daniels is coming off a career-game for a tight end (9-99-2). He now has five TDs for the season. The Giants are 8th in terms of most fantasy points allowed to TEs. In seven games, six different TEs produced 40+ yards or scored a TD against the Giants. Look for Daniels to continue producing this week.
Martin is a great sleeper, not because of the matchup, but his increased playing time and targets due to Greg Jennings’ sprained ankle. The Packers are depleted at WR, so Martin is on the field more as they use more TEs (4-48-1 last week). Four TEs have produced 50 yards or scored a TD against the Bills in seven games (Jermaine Wiggins, Ben Watson x2 and Chris Baker). Martin is the Packers’ most productive TE, surpassing Bubba Franks. He’s a solid waiver wire pickup and start option if you can still get him. Important: There is one caveat with Martin - he suffered a jaw injury last week, so check his availability before putting him into your lineup. If Martin is questionable or worse, then consider Donald Lee as a solid alternative. He's next on the Packers depth chart and he contributed when called upon last season.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Smith has now appeared enough times in this column to become a card-carrying member. That’s not all good either. Smith scored a TD (5-16-1) four weeks ago when these two teams last met. They are the fourth best matchup for TEs. Seven different TEs have produced 40 yards or scored a TD against them in as many games. TEs are averaging 7.2 targets, 5.2 catches, 44.5 yards and 0.7 TDs per game against the Saints.
Stevens returned to the lineup and he finally made an impact last week. The Raiders are tough on tight ends ranking as the 4th toughest in fantasy pts allowed. Stevens caught a TD from Seneca Wallace last week (3-20-1). Maybe Wallace will continue looking for his super-sized TE this week, too. He’s a sleeper based more on opportunity, than because of the matchup. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Bengals have allowed 4 TDs in their last three games to opposing tight ends. Heap is almost a lock to score, but Wilcox isn’t a bad reach in deeper leagues. The Bengals have allowed the third most fantasy points to TEs on the year. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Ernie Conwell is hurt and Mark Campbell is replacing him in the starting lineup. Campbell caught four balls for 42 yards against the Ravens last week. He has 5 catches for 49 yards in the last two games. The Bucs are the ninth best matchup, but consider that Ernie Conwell scored a TD against them in week 5. Luck? Coincidence? Maybe Campbell does, too.
The Steelers are still a below average matchup statistically, despite Alge
Crumpler just shredding them last week for 6 catches, 117 yards and 3 TDs.
Scheffler had 2 catches going into last week’s game, but he finally had his
first “breakout” performance. He caught four balls for 51 yards on four
targets. Scheffler is a major reach, but he could finally be working his way
into the offensive flow. As a rookie, he’s just as likely to disappear
again. |
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