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Week 7 Sleeper Report
Quarterback
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
After playing the Bears on Monday Night Football, facing the Raiders this week will seem like a leisurely walk in the park for Matt Leinart. Granted, the Raiders problems are less on the defensive side of the ball, but one of the biggest reasons opponents haven’t produced a lot of passing numbers against them is that they simply didn’t need to throw much to beat them. The Raiders pass defense, for those reasons, rank #1 in passing yards allowed, but note that they’ve allowed 1.6 TDs per game and have a league low 6 sacks. If Leinart has time, he should pick the Raiders apart and he has a very good chance to produce numbers that are starter-quality.
Leftwich and the Jaguars had two weeks to prepare for this game. The Texans are the #1 matchup for opposing QBs allowing 285 yds/gm, 2.2 TDs/gm and just 0.2 INTs/gm (just 1 INT in 5 games). Opposing QBs are completing 68.6% of their passes against Houston. Given the extra time to prepare and the great matchup, Leftwich could be one of this week’s top performers at the position.
The Lions are allowing 263 passing yds/gm with 2.2 TDs and just 0.3 INTs per game. They rank as the 3rd best matchup for opposing QBs. The Lions are allowing a league-high 70.6% completion percentage. The Lions LBs are fast, but often are out of position. A savvy veteran like Pennington, when given time to make his progressions, should have no problems finding open WRs and dissecting the Lions defense this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
The Seahawks are the 5th best matchup for QBs allowing 265 yds, 1.8 TDs and 1 INT per game. Last week, Marc Bulger threw for 360 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT against them. In previous weeks, Rex Grossman (232, 2, 0), Eli Manning (275, 3, 3), Kurt Warner (231, 1, 1) and Jon Kitna (229, 0, 0) were all productive (to varying degrees) against the Seahawks. Johnson has thrown for 200+ yards in 4 of the Vikings 5 games with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. A reasonable expectation this week would be in the 220 yard range with 1-2 TDs and probably an INT, too.
Tracking Drew Bledsoe from week to week is like reading “A Tale of Two Cities”. He has been horrible in games featuring good defenses, yet he produces quality numbers against lesser opponents. Such is the case this week against a Giants defense that, quite frankly, has looked good and bad themselves in different games. In the last two games, the Giants played well defensively limiting the Redskins and Falcons production. Of course, Matt Hasselbeck’s huge game against them skewed their matchup numbers, which might make them something of an anomaly at this stage. They are currently the 6th best matchup for QBs allowing 223 yds, 1.6 TDs and 1 INT per game. Running with Bledsoe is akin to running with bulls in Pamplona. You run the risk of being gored or you could escape unscathed, and you just might get a couple TDs and 200+ yards out of him.
If two games were an adequate sample size, then the Bucs rookie QB would be given carte blanche status as a viable fantasy QB. Despite being a rookie 6th round pick who has been forced into action; Gradkowski is playing more like a poised veteran after leading the Bucs to a come-from-behind victory last week against the Bengals. The Eagles, while an aggressive and dangerous opponent, have allowed 265 yds, 1.3 TDs and 1.3 INTs per game to opposing QBs. They are the 7th best matchup coming into this game.
The Browns aren’t ranked among the best matchups, statistically speaking, for QBs (206 yds, 1.2 TDs and 0.8 INTS per game), but those stats are padded having played the Raiders, who produced an abysmal 68 yards against them in week four. As a better comparison, consider that Steve McNair threw for 264 yards and 1 TD against them in week three. Carson Palmer threw for 352 yards with two TDs (and 2 INTs) in week two. Plummer hasn’t exactly been a model of productivity himself. Don’t expect a lot here, but he should be able to produce at least as many stats as Drew Brees (176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT) in week one and Jake Delhomme (170 yards, 1 TD) in week five. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
It looks like a safe bet that Joey Harrington will start for the Dolphins when they play host to the Green Bay Packers this week. Green Bay is the 2nd best matchup for opposing QBs allowing 293 yds, 1.8 TDs and 0.6 INTs per game. All of the starting QBs that have played the Packers have thrown for 220 or more yards and all but one tossed 2 TDs. Harrington wasn’t particularly impressive last week and it’s hard to get behind the guy for fantasy purposes, but he did throw for 266 yards with a TD and 2 INTs. In two starts this year, Harrington has just 1 TD and 4 INTs with 498 yards. If your league penalizes you for INTs thrown, then Harrington is more of a risk. If not, he’s actually a decent reach.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Patriots defense is allowing 241 passing yds, 0.8 TDs and 0.6 INTs per game to opposing QBs. J.P. Losman is obviously a major reach. He threw for 164 yards with no TDs, but no INTs either, in New England to open the season. He might produce 200 yards and a TD or two, but let’s not overextend ourselves. Losman is not a guy to excited about – even in this matchup.
Running Back
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
If you own Fred Taylor, then you’ve probably had this game circled on your schedule since the beginning of the season (hoping Fred stays healthy long enough to cash in). The Texans are the #1 matchup for RBs allowing 139 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards per game with 1.6 TDs/game. In Taylor’s last game against Houston (2005, week 16) he ran for 101 yards, caught an 11-yard pass and scored a TD.
DeShaun Foster needs a big game and this might be the matchup for it to happen for him. The Bengals are allowing 113 yds/gm to opposing RBs on the ground and 50 yds through the air along with 1.2 TDs/gm. Last week, Cadillac Williams ran for 94 yards on 19 carries (almost 5 yards a pop) and in the previous two games Laurence Maroney ran for 125 yards and 2 TDs (Dillon added 67, 1) while Willie Parker ran for 133 yds and 2 TDs (Haynes added 24 yds, too). Needless to say, this will be a telling game for Foster’s owners. He needs a big game here.
Edge has been a disappointment in the desert, but it’s not all his fault. This week, maybe he can provide a spark for those teams who burned a first round pick on him. The Raiders are the 2nd best matchup for opposing RBs allowing 130 yds on the ground per game, 39 yds thru the air and a combined 1 TD per game. Three of the five starting RBs who have faced them ran for 100+ yards. Edge needs touches to be effective and the Raiders are allowing more rushing attempts per game than any team in the league (32.8 to RBs alone).
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
It’s not happening for Jordan and the Raiders so far this year, but he has produced 128, 71 and 60 yards rushing in the last three games with 1 TD. His opponent, the Cardinals, ranks as the 10th best matchup for RBs allowing 89 rushing yds, 61 receiving yds and 1 TD per game.
The Bills are allowing 110 rushing yds/gm and 49 receiving yds/gm to opposing RBs with 1 TD/gm. Laurence Maroney is now the stud in the Patriots backfield, but Dillon is still a viable fantasy option, too. He’s rushed for 73, 80, 16, 67 and 45 yards this year with 2 TDs. This is a slightly better than average matchup (Bills are 9th in Pts allowed to RBs) so expect a solid outing from Dillon. In the season opener, Dillon combined for 95 yards against the Bills.
Miami is allowing 28 rushing attempts per game to opposing RBs. While the Dolphins defense is doing a good job of limiting the yards/attempt, Green has a good opportunity to run the ball this week, but what they do with that opportunity is open to debate. The Packers offensive line is slowly improving so Green might be a decent yardage play – just don’t expect any TDs as the Dolphins have been stingy in that area allowing just 1 TD to RBs in the first 5 weeks. Green is expected to start this week, but if he suffers yet another setback with a hammy, then look for Noah Herron to be productive in his stead.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Texans are the #1 matchup for RBs allowing 139 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards per game with 1.6 TDs/game. Fred Taylor will get some love this week, but there should be enough such that Jones-Drew can get in on the fun, too. Interestingly, the Texans have allowed the 4th most rushing TDs and the 3rd most receiving yards to RBs. Those numbers play right into Jones-Drew’s strengths and his role within the Jaguars backfield.
Washington is getting more work each week, but he’s still not the starter. Kevan Barlow could be a decent reach this week now that Shaun Rogers is suspended and Shaun Cody is injured. Washington figures to benefit as well. However, don’t be surprised if Barlow doesn’t get as many touches as Washington does in this game. The Lions defense started out strong against the run this year, but have faded since and without Rogers and Cody, the Jets should be able to exploit them for some big plays on the ground. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
See Leon Washington. The Lions defense is vulnerable with both of their starting DTs out this week. Barlow remains the “starter” for the Jets at RB, but that’s not something you want to hang your hat on at the end of the day. At least Barlow is consistent. In five of the six Jets games, Barlow ran for 31 to 45 yards with 11 to 14 carries. He also scored 4 TDs; crossing the goal line in three of the Jets first four games. With Leon Washington working his way into a larger role, Barlow is more of a long shot, but given the matchup he just might be a decent reach after all.
Wide Receiver Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Could Michael Clayton make it two strong weeks in a row? We’ll find out. The Eagles are allowing 12.3 receptions, 172 yards and 1.2 TDs per game to opposing WRs. Last week, Joe Horn produced his best game of the season (6, 110, 2) against Philly while rookie Marques Colston had four catches for 40 yards and a TD.
The Seahawks are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs – 12.6 receptions, 183 yards and 1.8 TDs per game. They’ve allowed the most TDs to receivers in the league. Last week, Torry Holt scored 3 TDs and produced 154 yards against them. Granted, that’s Torry Holt and we’re talking about Troy “hands of stone” Williamson and Travis Taylor, but you get the point. In the last three games, the Seahawks have allowed 8 TDs to opposing WRs.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Mike Furrey has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners who grabbed him off waivers a few weeks ago. He’s produced a few big games and this week he could do the same. The Jets allowed 50+ yards to three different Dolphins WRs last week (Chambers, Hagan and Welker). Overall, the Jets are the 8th best matchup for WRs allowing 13 receptions, 176 yards and 0.7 TDs per game.
The Steelers, perhaps surprisingly so, are the 6th best matchup for opposing WRs this year allowing 13.8 receptions, 176 yds and 1 TD per game. Interestingly, none of the opposing WRs have topped 100 yards receiving against Pittsburgh. Jenkins has been the most reliable amongst the Falcons WRs with 27 targets in five games (no less than 4, no more than 6). So, at least he’s consistent. elie has been coming on in recent weeks for the Falcons as a deep threat, but as we all know, the Falcons WRs are not targeted frequently enough to be consistent for fantasy purposes. At least with Lelie we know he’s good for a couple deep passes per game. Maybe he can connect with Vick for a TD in this one.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Like Matt Jones, Wilford has been a sleeping giant this year. He’s just disappeared from the fantasy landscape while Reggie Williams emerged to the forefront. The Texans, who Wilford dominated in two games last year, have allowed the 2nd most points to WRs - 13 receptions for 183 yards and 1.6 TDs per game to WRs. Last year, Wilford produced 4-89-1 and 4-118-1 against Houston. Could he resurrect some of that charm this week?
Hagan almost scored a couple TDs last week in his first NFL start, but he came away empty on those passing plays. He still wound up catching 6 passes for 66 yards, not bad at all. Seven different WRs have scored TDs against the Packers in five games. Overall, the Packers are the 7th best matchup for WRs allowing 10 receptions, 170 yds and 1.6 TDs (2nd most) per game. Hagan could get the starting nod again this week if Marty Booker’s shoulder isn’t sufficiently healed. Look for the Dolphins rookie to be a solid reach if he’s starting.
The Seahawks are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs – 12.6 receptions, 183 yards and 1.8 TDs per game. They’ve allowed the most TDs to receivers in the league. Scoring touchdowns are Marcus Robinson’s specialty. If you’re in reaching for a long shot this week, look for Robinson. He’s arguably still the Vikings best red zone threat and the Seahawks have a real vulnerability against the pass right now.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Patriots are allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year – 13.4 receptions, 185 yards and 0.8 TDs per game. In their first meeting this year, Reed and Price produced 3-40-0 and 3-25-0 respectively. Last week, Roscoe Parrish broke off a long TD, but later injured his hamstring and left the game. If he’s slowed this week, then Reed and Price have a slightly better chance of producing something noteworthy. It’s a snow ball’s chance in hell, but it’s still a chance just the same.
Tight End Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
-The Giants are the 2nd best fantasy matchup for opposing TEs, so Witten is definitely a guy to start this week. He’s been inconsistent this year – like the rest of the Cowboys passing game – but the Giants are allowing more yardage to TEs than any team in the league (63.4). Witten had mixed results against the Giants last year. In week 6, he produced 5-56-1 and in week 13 he had a paltry 1-5-0. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Baker has three games with usable fantasy stats and three clunkers. This week, we’re leaning on the productive side of the Chris Baker gambling experiment. The Lions are the 5th best matchup for TEs allowing 4.2 receptions, 44.2 yards and 0.8 TDs per game. We went with the great Robert Royal to score against the Lions last week, when in fact, it was the #2 TE on the Bills (Ryan Neufeld) that scored. Look for Baker to be a decent reach this week.
The Redskins are allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing TEs – 4.5 receptions, 44.5 yards and 0.3 TDs per game. Unfortunately, they were ranked much higher until the last two games when they did a good job of limiting the Giants and Titans TEs to almost no production. The Redskins could be a tougher matchup than those averages indicate, but Clark is almost always worth the gamble knowing Peyton Manning is chucking the rock to him. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Cardinals rookie tight end is slowly emerging as the team’s best TE and it might not be too long before he’s making more of a name for himself in fantasy leagues. The Raiders are the 10th best matchup for TEs allowing 3.2 receptions and 23 yards per game, but the tell-tale statistic is 0.8 TDs per game. Four different TEs have scored TDs against them in five games.
The Texans are allowing 4.8 receptions and 43.8 yards per game to opposing TEs (though just 1 TD in five games). Wrighster is averaging 5.4 targets per game and 3.4 receptions for 28.2 yards per game with just 1 TD. He’s definitely a long shot and we suspect he’ll begin to lose some stats to Marcedes Lewis, the team’s talented rookie TE and first round pick. For now, anyway, he’s still worth a reach if you’re other options are thin. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Michael Gaines dropped what could’ve been a long TD pass last week against the Ravens. This week, we’ll see if he or Kris Mangum can hold onto the ball and possibly score a TD or make a couple big plays with the Bengals committing their coverage to stopping Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson (not to mention the run). The Bengals are the 3rd best matchup for TEs allowing 5.6 receptions, 52 yards and 0.6 TDs per game.
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