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Week 6 Sleeper ReportThis article is a weekly look at player generally ranked outside the realm of every week starters. The players covered here usually fall into two categories: those with a good matchup or those who have an opportunity to start because of an injury to a teammate. On the other hand, sometimes a player may be considered if they are normal a starter, but have a bad matchup. Each position is covered with in descending order beginning with the players who are better gambles and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome.
Quarterback Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
It’s hard to have much confidence in Bledsoe after watching him struggle badly against the Eagles this past week, but he’s been doing this same sort of hot/cold routine for years. The key to Bledsoe has always been not starting him bad situations, like any combination of a road game, poor weather or against a team with a strong pass rush. Follow that script, and Bledsoe can be a productive member of your very own QBBC. Stray from it, and you’re bound to get burned. This week, looks like a “go” week for Bledsoe. He’s facing a Texans defense that’s allowed more fantasy production to QBs through the first five weeks than any other team. In four games, every opposing QB (McNabb, Manning, Brunell and Culpepper) has thrown for a minimum of 249 yards and 1 TD (Culpepper setting the low marks there). It averages out to 306 yds/gm and 2 TDs/gm with only one interception.
Last week, we tried the “start ‘em all” approach to the Lions defense and it didn’t work very well. That’s why they play the games. Let’s look more closely at the numbers here. Losman has thrown at least 1 TD in the last four games. Since the Bears are MUCH tougher than the Lions, let’s compare his performance against the Vikings and Jets, for the sake of projecting his numbers this week. Losman threw for 328 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT (23-for-38) against the Jets while producing 222 yards and 1 TD (23-of-32) against the Vikings. By contrast, all five QBs that faced the Lions so far threw for at least 201 yards and only Hasselbeck didn’t throw a TD. The Lions are the 3rd best matchup statistically – allowing 275 yds, 2.2 TDs and 0.2 INTs per game with an average of 25-of-34 passing (more than 70% completion rate). Ouch.
The key to using Rivers is predicting whether the Chargers will be challenged enough to be in a position where Rivers actually has to throw enough passes to be useful. The Chargers defense is playing excellent football. That’s great if you’re a fan, but not if you own Rivers and you’re counting on him for production. Witness Monday night, Rivers had to throw more frequently for the Chargers to win that game – and he came threw with 242 yards and 2 TDs. Opposing QBs average 241 yds, 2 TDs and 0.8 INTs per game against the 49ers. The last two weeks are good measuring sticks comparing the production of Damon Huard and Andrew Walter. Let’s assume we all agree that Rivers _should_ easily produce more than these two. Huard went 18-of-23 for 208 yards with 2 TDs. Walter (and Tuiasosopo) combined for a stat line of 18-of-32 for 216 with 2 TDs (and 4 INTs). Apply this to Rivers and it’s reasonable to believe that he can produce around 225+ yards with 2 TDs. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Last week, perhaps unfairly, Brunell had lofty expectations against the Giants defense on the road. This week, Brunell and the Skins are back at home facing a Titans defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to QBs: 20-of-29 for 214 yds, 1.4 TDs and 0.4 INTs per game. The strange thing about those numbers is that both Peyton Manning threw for just 166 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT against them – at home in Indy, too. Yet, Chad Pennington threw for 319 yards and 2 TDs and Philip Rivers went for 235 yards and a TD against them. It doesn’t add up. What it means is that Brunell is no better than a gamble this week - a roll of the die. Brunell has thrown for 200+ yards or at least 1 TD in 2 out of 5 games, but the good thing is he’s thrown only two interceptions in those games.
In the last three games, Pennington has quickly fallen back to the pack statistically after beginning the season with back-to-back 300 yard games. Granted, the Bills, Colts and Jaguars are all better than average pass defenses. Miami isn’t that good, but their not terrible either. Three of the five QBs have thrown for 200+ yards against Miami, all of them threw at least 1 TD and 3 of them scored 2 or more TDs. Last week, Tom Brady only produced 140 yards with 2 TDs (no INTs). David Carr threw for 230 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT each, and a rushing TD. Kerry Collins produced 269 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs. J.P. Losman did nothing against Miami, but Charlie Batch threw for 209 yards and 3 TDs in the season opener.
Opposing QBs are averaging 243 yards, 1.8 TDs and 0.4 TDs per game against the Redskins (6th most). All of the QBs to face Washington have topped 200 yards and thrown at least 1 TD. Granted, streaks are meant to be broken, but that’s a good sign for Young’s potential this week. The Redskins haven’t faced a QB as inexperienced as Young yet, but Brad Johnson, Drew Bledsoe, David Carr and Byron Leftwich also aren’t your typical top 10 fantasy QBs either. With Shawn Springs out, the Redskins secondary is more vulnerable. By the same token, it sure would be nice if Drew Bennett is healthy and able to play this weekend, too. At this point, Young is worth a gamble, especially if you’re without a starter this week due to the bye and have other injuries complicating your decision. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
When Carson Palmer threw four TDs against Pittsburgh in week 3, we might have written if of as, well, Carson freaking Palmer doing his thing. Yet even Daunte Culpepper threw for 262 yards (though he didn’t throw a TD and had 2 INTs) and Byron Leftwich beat the Steelers with 260 yards (but no TDs and 1 INT). Fast forward to last Sunday night when Philip Rivers completed 24-of-37 for 242 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT against the Steelers. While the Steelers are allowing some passing yards and TDs, they’re pass rush appears to be as effective as ever. The positive note for the Steelers is that this game is at home, where the defense usually “brings the noise”. On the other hand, Huard has been unusually productive since replacing the injured Trent Green. In the last two games, he’s completed 44-of-61 for 496 yards and 4 TDs with no picks. That run will probably come to a halt this week, but don’t be surprised if he manages around 200 yards with a 1-2 TDs – also expect at least 1 INT and a few sacks, too. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
This is definitely not a “good matchup” angle here. The Bengals are a ball-hawking team defensively that can frustrate opposing QBs and force them to make mistakes. Gradkowski did well on the road last week making his first start in the NFL. He went 22-of-37 for 245 yards with 2 TDs, no picks and 19 yards rushing. Expect an interception of two in this game from Gradkowski, but don’t be at all surprised if he manages to produce 200 to 225 yards with 1-2 TDs either.
Running Back Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Each of the last two RBs to face the Raiders ran for 100 yards. The Raiders
are the 2nd best fantasy matchup for RBs allowing an average of 141 rushing
yds, 46 receiving yards and 1 TD per game. Last week, Frank Gore rambled his
way to 134 rushing yards and 38 receiving yards. Maurice Hicks added a 33
yard reception for a TD, too. Bell is ranked around 23rd-24th in PPG, so
he’s right on the cusp of a fantasy starter. He has rushed for 100 yards in
2 of the 4 games he’s played, but he’s yet to score a TD. Look for that to
change this week. 100+ yards and a TD are in the forecast given this week’s
matchup – at home – against the Raiders.
Last week, we suspected that Cadillac might break out of his season-long funk with his first useful game of the year. One down. This coming week, Williams faces a Bengals defense allowing 115 rushing yds, 4.8 receptions, 52 receiving yards and 1.5 TDs per game to opposing RBs. That makes them the 3rd best matchup for RBs compared to 23rd for the Saints (last week’s matchup). Even with last week’s effort, Williams is the 36th ranked RB (PPG basis, FBG scoring). The last two backs scored 2 TDs each and ran for 133 yards (Willie Parker) and 125 yards (Laurence Maroney) against the Bengals. That said, Williams looks like a safe start this week with hopefully a strong outing similar to last week, if not better perhaps.
The Rams enter this week as the 11th ranking for fantasy points scored by opposing RBs, but when you look closely they are more of an upgrade than a neutral matchup. All five starting RBs to face the Rams so far have rushed for 93+ yards and all but one (Tatum Bell) scored, but Mike Bell scored so that almost doesn’t count either. Look no further than Noah Herron’s 20 rushes for 106 yards, five receptions for 20 yards and a TD last week against the Rams. That’s probably the best comparison because Herron is also a backup RB, not the team’s normal starter. Morris should get the bulk of the work this week as long as Alexander doesn’t have a “miracle” cure between now and Sunday.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Entering this week, Deuce McAllister is ranked 11th in FBG scoring for PPG while Reggie Bush is 34th. If you change the criteria to a PPR scoring format, then it’s quite different and Bush is easily amongst the top 15 or 20 backs. Taking a look at how opponents have fared against the Eagles this year, let’s focus solely on targets and receptions since that’s Bush’s sweet spot. Opposing RBs are averaging 7.2 receptions per game for 43 yards against the Eagles. Vernand Morency, Frank Gore and Tiki Barber caught 6, 6 and 7 passes respectively against the Eagles. If you’re considering Bush as a starter in a non-PPR league, this is a better than average matchup for Bush to produce 85 yards (his average in 5 games). Whether he scores his first TD of the year from scrimmage remains to be seen.
Lewis is the 37th ranked RB (FBG scoring) on a PPG basis after five weeks. So
far, it’s not exactly the renaissance season that his fervent backers were
expecting. Lewis looks good running the ball, but the Ravens offensive line
isn’t nearly as good as it was when he rushed for 2000 yards. This week’s
opponent, Carolina, enters the game as a neutral matchup allowing 109
rushing yds, 35 receiving yds and 0.4 TDs per game to RBs. Warrick Dunn and
Chester Taylor both ran for 100+ yards against the Panthers in the first two
weeks. Since then, Cadillac Williams ran for 48 yards and a TD, Deuce
McAllister produced 39 yards and a TD and Reuben Droughns managed only 65
yards last week. It’s safer to compare Lewis to these last three and set
your expectations accordingly. The game’s in Baltimore, so that should help,
but Lewis and the Ravens may struggle to generate much push up front against
a strong Panthers front seven. That’s probably the biggest difference
between the first two opponents and the last three for Carolina. Minnesota
and Atlanta’s offensive lines are much better than those in Tampa, Cleveland
and New Orleans. The Ravens are somewhere in between.
As a sleeper play, Henry is more about opportunity than the matchup this week. Early reports indicate that Henry will remain in the starting role when the team goes to Washington with Chris Brown remaining inactive and LenDale White in the backup role. That’s good news for Henry’s owners. The Redskins have been at least average, if not slightly better than average, against RBs this year, but Tiki Barber burst their bubble last week with 123 rushing yards. Facing the Jags and Texans possibly helped them pad their stats, too. Julius Jones ran for 94 yards (Barber chipped in 39 yards and a TD) and Chester Taylor combined for 131 yards against the Redskins. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Cowboys face the Texans this week, who just happen to be the #1 matchup for opposing RBs. Julius Jones is a great start, obviously, but Marion Barber deserves consideration, too. Barber has scored a TD in three straight games and he’s averaging 53 combined yards per game on the season with about 8-10 touches each week. For comparison’s sake, consider the Colts tandem of Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. Addai combined for 104 yards and a 1TD while Rhodes produced 59 yards and a TD. The Redskins had even better production. Portis produced 164 yards and 2 TDs. Ladell Betts turned out 151 yards and 1 TD.
There are two main reasons why Benson is worth a look in a starting capacity
this week despite not starting for his own NFL team – the Bears. This week’s
opponent (Arizona) is the 4th best matchup for RBs allowing 98 rushing yds,
68 receiving yards and 1.2 TDs per game. For his part, Benson has at least
10 rushing attempts in each of the Bears four games this season. If you’re
looking for signs that his role could increase then look at this week’s box
score. Benson scored his first TD of the season – scoring twice – and he
caught his first two passes on the year, too. This game could get ugly
early, so don’t be surprised if Lovie Smith gets Benson an opportunity to
pad his stats in the second half.
Turner is averaging just over 10 carries per game, almost *7* yards per carry
and 70+ combined yards per game serving as a change-of-pace to LaDainian
Tomlinson. Last week, Justin Fargas broke loose for 63 yards on eight
carries against the 49ers – the Chargers opponent this week. In the 49ers
three previous games they allowed 100+ rushing yards to all three backs –
124 combined yards to Steven Jackson, 164 yards and 3 TDs to Brian Westbrook
and 142 yards and 2 TDs to Larry Johnson. The Chargers could have this game
securely in hand by halftime giving Turner ample opportunity to generate
some solid numbers like he did against Tennessee in week 2 (155 combined
yards, 2 TDs).
White is getting more touches as the season wears on and it’s common thought that he will, at some point, take over the starting job from Henry/Brown as the Titans keep losing games. He’s carried the ball 8-9 times in 3 of their four games averaging ~ 40 yds/gm. The Redskins have allowed some moderate production to backup RBs, too. Brandon Jacobs combined for 41 yards on 11 touches last week. Maurice Jones-Drew produced 56 yards and a TD on 6 touches. Marion Barber produced 65 yards on 9 carries. You might consider White if you’re reaching for straws with injuries and six NFL teams on the bye this week. As far as NFL backups go, he’s got a solid chance to outperform in this spot.
This is a little bit out of the norm for this column, but keep an eye on the status of Kevin Jones when looking ahead to this week’s games, especially if you’re reaching hard for a solution at RB. Jones got his bell run hard last week in Minnesota and his status has not been declared for next week yet. If Jones is limited or held out of this game, then Calhoun would be a player you may target on the waiver wire to insert him right into your lineup against the Bills. Buffalo is the 12th best matchup for RBs allowing 105 rushing yards, 50 receiving yards and 1 TD per game. If Jones ends up being fine, then no need making a move on Calhoun, unless you own Jones and you want to protect your backside.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Make no mistake about this situation. It’s a bad matchup. The Dolphins, despite their woes this year, remain a stout defense against the run checking in as the 4th toughest matchup in terms of fantasy points allowed for RBs. The key to Washington is his growing role in the Jets offense. He went from almost no touches in the first two games to 9 touches for 77 yards in week 3 to 10 touches for 41 yards in week 4 to 24 touches for 109 yards last week against a tough Jags defense. The Dolphins are probably not as tough as the Jags, but using Washington has to be entirely based on the chance that Eric Mangini will use him similar to the way he was used last week. That game was a blowout, this game might not be. If not, Barlow could see more touches, but that’s the risk you’ll have to take until their roles are more clearly defined.
Wide Receiver
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The Seahawks are coming off a bye to face the St. Louis Rams, who just happen
to be the 4th best matchup for opposing WRs allowing 12+ receptions, 192
yards and 1 TD per game. The extra week gives Branch more time to work into
his role on the Seahawks and develop some rapport with Matt Hasselbeck. To
help his cause, Bobby Engram has been slowed this week due to some
illness/sickness which could affect his role this weekend. If Engram isn’t
better by Sunday, Branch could get his first start with Seattle. Regardless,
expect Branch to play a larger role this week. Given the matchup, he could
produce some strong numbers. Four straight WRs have gone over 100 yards
against the Rams. In two of those games, the team’s other starting WR caught
a TD or two. Needless to say, Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch look great
this week.
Kennison enters this week as the 40th ranked WR using FBG scoring (PPG basis). The Steelers are the 3rd best matchup for opposing WRs allowing 14.5 catches, 182 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. Kennison was targeted just 7 times in the first two games, but 17 times in the last two games producing 10 catches for 154 yards and a TD. Eric Parker looked good against the Steelers on Sunday night as he caught 5 passes for 86 yards. In week three, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry each caught 2 TDs against them and, the previous week, Reggie Williams produced 8-95-0 and Matt Jones 6-73-0. If you’re on the fence with Kennison, come on down this week and start him with more confidence than usual.
The Redskins, Tennessee’s foe this week, are the 10th best matchup for opposing WRs allowing 11.6 catches, 155.8 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. Obviously, none of this matters if Bennett isn’t healthy enough to play, so be sure to check his status before using him. If he’s not able to go, then keep Brandon Jones in mind as a deep sleeper. Bennett has some obvious factors working against him – his healthy being foremost, but also Vince Young’s inexperience. Bennett was targeted 17, 6 and 10 times in the first three games compared to 2 times in week 4. Last week he was targeted once, but he didn’t play the full game either. Every week one of the opposing WRs topped 75 yards against Washington. If Shawn Springs is out again, then Bennett (or Jones) looks even better.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Moulds enters this week as the 37th ranked WR on a PPG basis using FBG
scoring. The Cowboys have done a solid job, mostly, against opposing WRs,
but last week Hank Baskett beat them for a 87-yard TD en route to a 112-yard
game. Reggie Brown caught four balls for 79 yards and a TD. The Cowboys put
a lid on the Titans and Redskins WRs in the previous two games, so Moulds is
definitely not a safe play by any stretch. Going back to game one, however,
the Jaguars WRs all produced 50+ yards or scored a TD. Andre Johnson is
definitely the guy to start from Houston, but Moulds has been targeted 21
times (6, 4, 5 and 6) catching at least 4 passes in every game producing 68
yards and a TD, 59 yards, 27 yards and 76 yards. That means just one poor
game, two average/mediocre games and one good game.
The Dolphins play the Jets in New York this week. Not a great matchup on
paper, but Welker simply deserves to get into someone’s lineup, especially
in PPR leagues, because of his week-to-week consistency and production.
Welker’s targets and actual production through five games look like this: 8
(4-67-0), 5 (5-41-0), 6 (5-59-0), 7 (4-55-0) and 12 (9-77-0). With Marty
Booker possibly out of the lineup this week, Welker could be leaned on more
heavily like he was last week (notice the up-tick in his targets and stats).
If he’s still on your waiver wire, pick him up and play him if you’re in a
pinch.
See Eddie Kennison. Parker enters this week as the 71st ranked WR using FBG scoring (PPG basis). The Steelers are the 3rd best matchup for opposing WRs allowing 14.5 catches, 182 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. Parker has been targeted 19 times in four games. He caught his first TD of the season last week, but he’s still yet to produce more than 37 yards in a game. Opposing #2 WRs have been successful against the Steelers. Eric Parker looked good on Sunday night with 5 passes for 86 yards. In week three, T.J. Houshmandzadeh (#2) and Chris Henry (#3) each caught 2 TDs against them and, in the previous week, Reggie Williams produced 8-95-0 and Matt Jones 6-73-0. Parker isn’t a slam dunk starter, but this looks like a good spot to use him, especially in a PPR league.
The Chargers face the 49ers this week. As a fantasy matchup, the 49ers are the 6th best allowing 12 catches, 163 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. Parker was largely invisible in the first two games with just 2 catches on 3 targets. In the last two, he’s come alive with 13 targets producing 9 catches for 123 yards (5-86-0 last week). If you need any further signs of encouragement, then consider the Raiders got solid production from both Randy Moss (5-52-1) and Ron Curry (4-94-0) last week with Andrew Walter tossing the rock. The week before, Eddie Kennison (6-86) and Dante Hall both caught TDs. In week three, sans Dante Stallworth, Reggie Brown produced 5-106-0. The Chargers WRs are hard to predict. Keenan McCardell’s name is barely called these days while Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson have caught 3 TDs – compared to 0 for Parker and McCardell. Parker seems to be the hot hand right now, so given the matchup, you might want to roll the dice with him and hope he can sustain the momentum or even kick it up a notch.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Giants are the 7th best matchup for opposing WRs, but most of the numbers they allowed were all in one game (at Seattle – 18 catches, 184 yards, 4 TDs). Beyond that game, they’ve allowed only 2 TDs and only three WRs to go over 40 yards (in three games). Lelie is really a boom-or-bust play. His career average is 18 yards per catch. In his last two games, Lelie caught a 48-yard pass against the Saints and a 51-yard pas against the Cardinals. Eventually he’s going to make good on one of those and score a long TD.
The Lions are the ninth best matchup for opposing WRs. Until last week, they were being beaten with regularity, but somehow they pulled it together against the Vikings to stop the bleeding. In the previous two games, they allowed three WRs to go for 100+ yards and four different WRs to score TDs. Price and Reed have both been semi-productive this year. Lee Evans is the one to play, obviously, but Reed and Price might be worth a look if you’re hurting for a player to grab this week. You might be able to get either one off waivers as an short-term solution this week.
The Titans are allowing 1.2 TDs/gm to opposing WRs and they rank as the 11th
best matchup overall. Randle-El is always a good player to gamble, but the
Redskins passing game has been inconsistent this year. Randle-El has been
consistently targeted 3-to-5 times each game and he’s caught 2-to-5 passes
in each game. Those aren’t good fantasy stats by any stretch, but
considering that Brandon Lloyd has been like vapor in a uniform, Randle-El
seems like a better bet. Last week, Brandon Stokley (Colts No. 3 WR) caught
5 passes for 57 yards. Wesley Welker produced 5-59-0 in week 3. Vincent
Jackson caught a TD in week 2 against Tennessee.
Curtis scored a TD last week, but it’s usually not a good idea to chase stats in the box scores, so that alone isn’t a good reason to warrant using Curtis. Add in a strong matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 5th best in fantasy points allowed to WRs and you have a better reason to make that leap. The Hawks are allowing 1.5 TDs/gm to opposing WRs (tied for 2nd most).
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Redskins, Tennessee’s foe this week, are the 10th best matchup for opposing WRs allowing 11.6 catches, 155.8 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. If Drew Bennett doesn’t play this week, then consider using Brandon Jones. He took over for Bennett last week and caught three balls for 40 yards on 6 targets. Every week one of the opposing WRs topped 75 yards against Washington. If Shawn Springs is out again, then this becomes an even better situation to consider using Jones.
The Chargers face the 49ers this week. As a fantasy matchup, the 49ers are the 6th best allowing 12 catches, 163 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. Both Randy Moss (5-52-1) and Ron Curry (4-94-0) were productive against the 49ers last week with Andrew Walter tossing the rock. The week before, Eddie Kennison (6-86) and Dante Hall both caught TDs. In week three, sans Dante Stallworth, Reggie Brown produced 5-106-0. The Chargers WRs are hard to predict. Despite starting, Keenan McCardell has been a non-factor this year. Meanwhile, Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson have caught 3 TDs while Parker and McCardell have none. It’s a real stretch counting on either of these 6’ 5” mammoth WRs, but with 2 TDs for Floyd in his last two games and one for Jackson, there’s a reasonable chance one of them could go for 6 again this week.
Tight End Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Opposing TEs are averaging 5.2 catches and 50.5 yards per game with 1 TD
after five weeks against Houston. Witten’s numbers have been disappointing
in the first quarter of the season (13-148-0). This could be the game where
he gets back on track. Randy McMichael used the Texans for his own
resurgence in week 4 (4-54-0). Chris Cooley caught four balls, but for only
18 yards in week 3. Dallas Clark (3-26-0), Ben Utecht (1-26-0) and Bryan
Fletcher (2-15-1) combined for some good production for the Colts and L.J.
Smith produced 6-56-0 in week one. Last week, Witten was targeted six times
catching four balls for 51 yards – his best day of the season. He could
carry that momentum forward against the Texans.
The Bengals are the third best matchup for TEs allowing 6 catches, 60 yards
and 0.5 TDs per game. Granted, Tony Gonzalez skewed those numbers with his
10-81-1 season opener performance. Since week one, the Bengals defense has
done a better job. Kellen Winslow produced 4-42-0, Heath Miller 3-34-0 and
Daniel Graham 4-34-1. As for Smith, he started slowly but his production has
been solid in the past two games – 4-72-0 and 5-16-1. Bruce Gradkowski
targeted him six times last week.
The Chargers are a decent matchup for TEs (9th overall) allowing 3.5 catches, 42 yards and 0.5 TDs per game, but this isn’t about the matchup as much as it is Johnson’s increased production with Vernon Davis on the sidelines. Since Davis got hurt in the third game, Johnson has been targeted 22 times (in three games) catching 13 passes for 124 yards and a TD. In each of the last two weeks, he caught three passes but produced only 14 and 23 yards respectively. The 49ers will probably need to throw more than usual in this game, so Johnson could see an increase in targets and overall production. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
The Redskins are the 5th best matchup for opposing TEs allowing 5.2 catches, 52 yards and 0.4 TDs per game. Troupe’s production has been disappointing with just seven catches for 105 yards and a TD in five games. He has caught more than 2 passes just once (3-39-1 against Dallas). In three of the last four games, the Skins opponents have combined for solid numbers though – last week the exception. In week four, the Jaguars George Wrighster (5-53) and Marcedes Lewis (2-40) combined for seven catches and 93 yards. The week before, the Texans threw 2 TDs to their TEs (Mark Bruener and Owen Daniels). In week two, Jason Witten (4-45-0) and Anthony Fasano (3-39-0) had solid games. Starting Troupe is a reach these days, but maybe this is one of those weeks that he puts it together.
Last week, we informed you that Conwell might be a solid gamble. He went
without a catch in the first three games. He was targeted just once. In week
four, he was targeted seven times, caught 5 balls for 37 yards. Against the
Bucs last week, he delivered making the most of his four targets by catching
a TD amongst 2 receptions and 14 yards.
For the second year in a row, Baker caught a TD in the season opener, and then he disappeared only to resurface every so often – just enough to sustain some interest and perhaps maintain a roster spot in some leagues. Baker produced 4-34-1 in week 1 and 3-15-1 in week 3. Otherwise, he’s caught two balls for 11 yards in the other three games. Ouch. This week, he faces a Dolphins team that has surrendered 2.8 catches, 48.4 yards and 0.4 TDs per game to TEs (8th best matchup). Each starting TE, except for Robert Royal, produced 33 yards or more against Miami in four games. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Redskins are the 7th best matchup for TEs, who are averaging 5.2 receptions, 52.2 yards and 0.4 TDs per game against them. Just when we thought Scaife was becoming reliable, he pitched a goose egg last week with just one target. In the three previous games, he caught three balls for 53, 53 and 40 yards with 1 TD. He was targeted 4, 4, 3 and 5 times in the first four games before last week’s “shut out”.
The Panthers are allowing the sixth most points to opposing TEs – 5.6 catches, 54.4 yards and 0.4 TDs per game. In each of the Panthers’ games, there has been TE production. They allowed TDs in each of their first two games to TEs. In the next three, Alex Smith went for 4-72-0 followed by Ernie Conwell’s 5-37-0 and Kellen Winslow’s 8-55-0 last week. The Ravens like to use their tight ends frequently and certainly, QB Steve McNair is no stranger to the TE dump off. Wilcox is major reach, but this is a good situation for McNair and his TEs to bounce back. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Lions have allowed three different TEs to score TDs against them (4 TDs
in all). Opposing TEs are averaging 4.6 catches, 50.6 yards and 0.8 TDs
against the Lions. The sub-header says, “If you’re desperate”. We mean
REALLY desperate in this case. After all, Royal has only four catches for 50
yards in 5 games. Then again, the Lions have allowed the most fantasy points
to opposing TEs, so if there’s a week you’d ever use him, this would be that
week. |
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