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Week 5 Sleeper Reportby Bob Henry, Exclusive to Footballguys.comThis article is a weekly look at player generally ranked outside the realm of every week starters. The players covered here usually fall into two categories: those with a good matchup or those who have an opportunity to start because of an injury to a teammate. On the other hand, sometimes a player may be considered if they are normal a starter, but have a bad matchup. Each position is covered with in descending order beginning with the players who are better gambles and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome.
Quarterback Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Johnson’s job will be a lot easier this week. The Lions defense is the best
possible opponent for opposing receivers. Marc Bulger and Brett Favre topped
300 yards with three TDs and no interceptions in the last two weeks against
Detroit. Rex Grossman went for 289 yards, 4 TDs and no picks in week two. In
four games, Johnson has thrown for an average of 232 yards per game, but he
has only two TDs against three interceptions. In the two games when Johnson
faced the Lions last year, he went 15-of-22 for 136 yards with 2 TDs (week
9) and 17-of-23 for 256 yards and 2 TDs (week 13). If Johnson is your backup
it would be excellent planning, or some great luck, if your starter is on
the bye this week (Palmer, Hasselbeck and Vick).
J.P. Losman threw for 222 yards and a TD against the Vikings last week. Rex Grossman produced 278 yards with a TD and two interceptions the previous week against the Vikings. Those two were productive from a fantasy perspective while Jake Delhomme (181-0-0) and Mark Brunell (163-0-0) were not as productive. Granted, they were without Steve Smith and Clinton Portis, too. Kitna is averaging 270 yards, 1 TD and 0.8 INTs per game. He’s topped 229 yards every week and he’s completing around 65% of his passes (98-150). If Kitna stays healthy, he’ll probably finish among the top 10 fantasy QBs in most scoring systems.
Leftwich isn’t much of a sleeper since he’s currently 7th in scoring amongst QBs. He’s been around 18th and 19th in each of the past two years, so he’s still on the verge of establishing himself in the more elite company of fantasy QBs. He’s averaging 223 yards with 1.3 TDs and 1.3 INTs per game so far. Leftwich’s opponents, the Jets, are allowing 254 yards, 0.8 TDs and 0.8 INTS per game. Ironically, J.P. Losman threw for 328 yards with 1 TD, 1 INT against the Jets while Peyton Manning and Tom Brady threw for 217-1-0 and 220-1-1. Leftwich should be in the neighborhood of 225+ yards with 1-2 TDs and likely an interception, too.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Matt Hasselbeck threw for 227 yards and 5 TDs against the Giants in week three. They’ve allowed the second most points to opposing QBs. Grading the Giants this early is probably a bad idea though, considering they’ve only faced Hasselbeck, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb this year. They should rank near the top of points allowed. That said, Brunell has thrown for 590 yards, four TDs and one interception in the last two games against Houston and Jacksonville. Brunell is 15th heading into this game, so he’s a solid gamble to produce top 10 numbers if you use him in this spot.
All four QBs to face the Eagles thus far have thrown for 200+ yards and, save for Brett Favre, all have thrown at least 1 TD. Bledsoe faced the Eagles twice last year throwing for 289 yards and 3 TDs in Dallas, but only producing 196 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in Philadelphia – which is where this game will be played. Heading into this game, Bledsoe is 17th (FBG scoring) among QB in fantasy pts/game. The Eagles secondary is decimated by injuries, but it didn’t hurt them against the Packers on MNF. The Cowboys have more firepower, but Bledsoe may struggle against the Eagles aggressive pass rush and the backdrop of the Eagles home crowd empowering them. Bledsoe is a decent gamble, but he’s still a bit of a reach on the road in a hostile environment, not to mention Terrell Owens’ return to Philly could be a catalyst or a hindrance.
He’s not looking very good out there, but at least he came up with a good enough performance last week to warrant consideration going forward. He threw for 249 yards and a TD against the Texans. Frankly, we expected more in that matchup, but you’ll have to take what you can get with Culpepper right now. The Patriots secondary is injury riddled once again. They’ve allowed good numbers to the last three QBs to face them – Carson Palmer 245-0-0, Jake Plummer 256-2-0 and Chad Pennington 306-2-1. Now, Culpepper isn’t playing as well as Palmer or Pennington, but if Plummer can be productive then there’s hope for Culpepper, too.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Smith hopes to bounce back against the Raiders this week after his first poor outing of the season last week. For comparisons of how other QBs fared against the Raiders, let’s start last week with Charlie Frye, who completed 22-of-32 for 192 yards, 3 TDs and 2 interceptions. That’s good compared to Steve McNair’s 143 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in week 2 or Philip Rivers 8-of-11 for 108 yards with a TD in week one. In all fairness to Rivers, the Chargers didn’t even need to throw all 11 of those passes. The Ravens didn’t need to throw much either. Like the Browns, the 49ers should win this game, but they’ll need to throw more than the Ravens or Chargers. Smith should bounce back and he’s a solid gamble this week with the potential for 200 to 220 yards with at least a TD.
Huard could produce solid, useful fantasy stats for the second week in a row. This matchup against Arizona, on the road, isn’t a slam-dunk, but it’s not a particular bad or scary matchup either. Marc Bulger threw for 309 yards with a TD and Alex Smith had 288 yards and a TD against them. Huard has been reasonably efficient since taking over for Trent Green. He’s 47-of-66 for 481 yards, 3 TDs and no interceptions in 2+ games. Against the 49ers, Huard was 18-of-23 for 208 yards with 2 TDs. Similar numbers this week wouldn’t be a total surprise, but it’s definitely a bit optimistic.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
By no means is this a good matchup. Quite the contrary. The Steelers and
Chargers both have strong defenses, so this could turn into a similar game
to the Chargers-Ravens matchup this past week. Rivers hasn’t distinguished
himself yet as a good fantasy QB even though his numbers are decent –
48-of-68 for 488 yards (7.2 yard avg) with three TDs and one interception.
The likelihood of Rivers throwing more than 25 passes is about 1:3 if not
slightly less. Other quarterbacks have thrown for good yardage, but Carson
Palmer is the only one to throw a TD – and he threw four. Leftwich was
26-of-39 for 260 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT on MNF in week 2 and Daunte
Culpepper threw for 262 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs in week 1. Rivers is more
likely to throw for 160 to 190 yards with 1 TDs with perhaps a turnover or
two.
With three appearances and one start under his belt, Young has thrown for 288 yards on 52 attempts, completing 24 of them with two TDs and three interceptions. If there’s one thing that’s just about a certainty with the Titans game this week, it’s that the Colts will score (probably a lot0 and the Titans will need to throw if they want to catch up or keep up. The Colts opponents are averaging 195 passing yards, 1.8 TDs and 1 interception per game against them. Young produced 155 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs this week against Dallas. He should do better in this game, but not by much.
There’s not much hope for the Raiders or Andrew Walter, but if you want something to reach for or cling onto, then consider that Damon Huard went 18-of-23 for 208 yards and 2 TDs against the 49ers last week. Kurt Warner threw for 301 yards and 3 TDs against them – the same Warner that has melted down in the last two games. So, there is at least a small ray of hope for Walter and the Raiders in this game. It’s minute, though, not just small. Opposing QBs are averaging 248 yards with two TDs per game against San Francisco. Just try not to think about Walter’s abysmal 21-of-55 completion rate, or his 4.7 yards per attempt, or his 4 interceptions.
Running Back Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The opposing starting RB in the last three games has run for 100+ yards against the 49ers. Edgerrin James is the only one who didn’t and he still combined for 86 yards and a TD. Jordan and the Raiders have been bad this year, but not bad enough that Jordan can’t find some way to work it out this week on the field. This is a prime matchup for a Raiders offense looking to get on track for the first time this year. With Andrew Walter behind center, the defense will probably load up against Jordan, so it won’t be easy, but it’s his best shot so far this season to really get something going.
The Jets are allowing 31 rushes, 136 rushing yds and 1.5 TDs per game to
opposing RBs. In just four games, six different backs have rushed for 60 or
more yards against them, five of them scoring TDs. Willis McGahee’s best
performance this year came against the Jets (26-150-0). Taylor’s overdue for
a breakout game, so maybe this is the week he produces the big plays and not
backup Maurice Jones-Drew. Then again, maybe they both get into the groove.
In the first two games of the season, the Panthers run defense allowed significant yardage to Warrick Dunn (29-132-0) and Chester Taylor (24-113-0). Contrast that by the Panthers defensive efforts in their last two games – Cadillac Williams ran for only 48 yards and 1 TD, Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister combined for 61 rushing yards and 1 TD (but added 56 receiving yards). Overall, the Panthers rank 11th in most fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. Droughns was eerily quiet during the first three weeks of the season, but he came to life last week against the Raiders rushing for 100 yards. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Not only are opposing RBs having plenty of success against the Titans, but opposing RB tandems, like Addai and Rhodes are quite productive. For example, Michael Turner produced 155 yards to LaDainian Tomlinson’s 122 yards and 2 TDs. Julius Jones ran for 122 yards and a TD while Marion Barber produced 73 yards and a TD. Even Tyson Thompson got into the act with 18 yards and a TD. Addai and Rhodes both scored last week and produced solid yardage despite splitting touches. As long as the matchup is good, and it is this week, then both deserve consideration as a RB2 or flex option.
Ahman Green’s status may not be determined until later in the week and Vernand Morency filled in reasonably well against the Eagles on Monday night rushing for 99 yards on 26 carries with six catches for another 19 yards. Kevin Jones had his best game, by far, this season with 93 yards and 2 TDs. Edgerrin James produced his best game, too, with 94 yards and 1 TD. Tatum Bell and Frank Gore both ran for 100+ yards in the Rams first two games. If Ahman starts, he’s a good play for sure. If not, don’t hesitate to use Morency in this spot.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Frank Gore fumbled once against last week, but it doesn’t look like it will cost him his starting job. That said, he did give way to Robinson for two goal line plunges the previous week. This week, against the Raiders, the 49ers figure to have more opportunities to score and Robinson could certainly be in line for those carries. Other backups have been productive against the Raiders, too. Mike Anderson ran for 34 yards and a TD in week 2 and Musa Smith had 24 yards in the same game. Michael Turner produced 37 yards and a TD in week one.
With Cedric Houston sidelined for 2-to-4 weeks, look for Washington’s role to
increase even more this week. Last week, he carried 9 times for 33 yards and
caught an 8-yard pass. The previous week he combined for 77 yards on seven
carries and two receptions. The Jags run defense is strong, but they’re also
slowed by some key injuries, primarily run-stuffing DT Marcus Stroud. Last
week, the Redskins RBs combined for 149 rushing yards and 38 receiving
yards. If Washington gets another 9-10 touches this week, he could produce
40 to 50 yards easily. That’s not great for fantasy production, but it’s
better than being kicked in the shins.
The Jets are allowing 31 rushes, 136 rushing yds and 1.5 TDs per game to opposing RBs. Here is how other backs who in a RBBC or backup role fared against the Jets this year. Travis Henry scored 2 TDs (9-22-2). Laurence Maroney ran for 65 yards and a TD. Last week, Joseph Addai (20-84-1) and Dominic Rhodes (15-75-1) had strong performances while splitting carries. Jones-Drew is more of a backup or change-of-pace runner, as opposed to a committee back at this point. He had 17 touches in week 3, but 6 or fewer in the other three games. That’s the key to his production – getting touches and making the most of them.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
This is the classic conundrum of having a rookie QB making his first NFL start in a noisy, road game against a defense with a strong pass rush. The Saints defense will probably load up to stop the run, knowing they can get after Gradkowski and likely force some turnovers. How does this affect Williams, you ask? The Bucs may do something similar – using more max protect, try to establish the run and alleviate pressure from Gradkowski by getting Williams going early. That’s why this is a classic gamble, and it’s not necessarily a good gamble either. As far as the matchup goes, the Saints allowed 105 rushing yards and a TD to DeShaun Foster last week (and 62 additional yards to DeAngelo Williams to boot). Contrast that with their first home game, when they sufficiently snuffed out the Falcons high powered running attack limiting Dunn to 44 yards and no TDs. I’d be hard pressed to recommend Caddy this week, but you may not have any better options.
The only team that didn’t run the ball effectively against the Colts was the
Houston Texans. That’s no coincident since the Texans don’t have much of a
rushing attack. The Titans don’t really have one either and it’s incredibly
difficult trying to predict whether Chris Brown, LenDale White or Travis
Henry will handle the bulk of the load, or if Henry will be inactive. White
is the most intriguing figure in the Titans backfield because of his high
draft pick, size, ability and the likelihood that he’ll be the team’s back
of the future. With Vince Young already starting at QB, the future could
become the present and Brown’s carries are likely to diminish as the season
progresses. The Colts are allowing an average of 29 carries, 146 rushing
yards, 37 receiving yards and 1TDs per game. If the Titans can come anywhere
near those numbers, not likely, then White could be sneaky plays this week.
Brown could still be a decent reach, but he’s clearly losing traction while
White’s production is increasing. Brown has not been productive with his
carries and White just hasn’t been given enough opportunity yet. Wide Receiver Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The Vikings have given up a fair amount of production to opposing WRs despite not facing any major threats – outside of Santana Moss, who they did a good job against. Roy Williams will receive the bulk of the Vikings attention leaving Furrey to continue getting a lot of balls thrown his way. He’s quickly developing into a player that deserves weekly consideration as a WR3 in your lineup. If he produces again this week, it’s doubtful that he’ll appear in this column again.
The Lions have allowed three 100-yard receivers in their last two games, and
all three scored TDs, too. Both starting receivers for the Packers and Rams
caught TDs against the Lions, as did Bernard Berrian in week two. Williamson
is the best bet because of his big play abilities and speed to get behind
the defense, but he still has to catch the football (a problem sometimes).
Taylor is also a good play this week, but he’s not as explosive as
Williamson is nor is he as likely to catch a TD as the Vikings #3 WR Marcus
Robinson.
Gabriel caught a TD pass in each of the last two games. He’s quickly emerging as a go-to receiver for Tom Brady in lieu of their recent turnover at WR and need for one of their new faces to emerge from the pack that included Gabriel, Reche Caldwell and top pick Chad Jackson. Gabriel seems like the best bet given his size and big play ability. Heading into this week’s game, Gabriel has 10 catches for 122 yards with 2 TDs (41st amongst WRs, YTD). The Dolphins secondary is still getting healthy (Travis Daniels is near 100% and back in the lineup), but overall this isn’t a real matchup play. It’s a neutral matchup, but for reference, Eric Moulds produced four catches for 76 yards and Andre Johnson 9-101-1 against the Dolphins last week. Drew Bennett had 5-84-0 in week 3 and Josh Reed 4-39-1 in week 2. The Patriots still spread the ball around making it hard to rely too much on any one of their WRs from week to week, but Gabriel is a solid bet to use in this spot as a WR3 or flex player given his upside and recent indications that he’s emerging as one of Brady’s go to guys in the red zone.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Derrick Mason is the well established “go to” guy for Steve McNair. The two have a strong rapport, but in recent weeks we’re beginning to see more targets going to Mark Clayton, and in crucial game situations. Perhaps it’s because defenses are shifting their coverage more to Mason and Todd Heap. Regardless, McNair’s confidence level in Clayton is growing and with Champ Bailey likely covering Mason, and even Heap, more in this week’s game we expect Clayton to once again see plenty of targets. The opposing #2 WR has been reasonably productive against Denver this year, but not exactly stellar either. Isaac Bruce produced 5-64-0 in week one, Samie Parker had 5-37-0 in week two and Troy Brown had 4-41-0 in week 3.
The Giants are allowing the most fantasy points/game to opposing WRs in the NFL after the first four weeks. Hasselbeck torched the Giants completing TDs to three different receivers – Jackson (2), Engram and Burleson. Both of the Eagles starting receivers, Donte Stallworth (5-81-1) and Reggie Brown (1-23-1), caught TDs against New York. If Brandon Lloyd had just one good week to hang your hat on before making the call on him this week (if you need him). At least Randle-El caught a TD and provided a few big plays. Lloyd has been targeted 15 times in four games (4, 2, 4 and 5). Randle El was also targeted 15 times (5, 4, 3 and 3). Flip a coin here. It’s just as likely that Santana Moss will hog all the stats and fantasy love from the Giants.
Matt Jones may not play this week according to the early reports this week, but obviously, that could change. If Jones doesn’t play, then Wilford deserves consideration as a potential starter this week. Leftwich doesn’t look his way as much as David Garrard did last year, but he’s still worth a look given his size. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Robinson is playing on borrowed time with a 1-year suspension likely coming at some time in the near future. Robinson saw extensive action on Monday night following an injury to Robert Ferguson’s foot. The Rams have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing WRs so far and to make matters worse, or better for Robinson’s owners, Donald Driver is questionable (ribs/hip) and Robert Ferguson is doubtful (foot). Starting WRs have fared extremely well against the Rams. If Driver is limited and Ferguson out, then Robinson should fill in as the #3 WR at worst, but possible in a semi-starting capacity depending on Driver’s health and status. Robinson is still a major reach, but as a last resort, he’s definitely worth a look this week.
See Troy Williamson and Travis Taylor. The Lions are being abused by opponents through the air and Robinson is an inviting target in the red zone with his size, strength and good hands. Historically, Robinson has done next to nothing in his last four games against the Lions. Then again, Robinson has 2 TDs in three games this year – all of which were against much tougher pass defenses than Detroit’s.
Welker’s been so consistently productive this year that he’s becoming a prime target in this column, especially when the matchup is good as it is this week. The Patriots are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing WRs. For the third season in a row, they’ve been forced to use Troy Brown as a nickel back due to injuries. Welker is targeted frequently enough to use him with some confidence this week as a WR3. Plus, other #3 WRs have been reasonably productive working against the Patriots – Kelley Washington 3-28-0, David Kircus 2-36-0, Justin McCareins 4-51-0 and the Bills’ Roscoe Parrish 2-20-0 and Josh Reed 3-40-0 both produced something as did Peerless Price 3-25-0. Now, these numbers aren’t what we typically look for in a fantasy #3 WR, but Welker is more productive than all of those WRs on a consistent basis, so he could be a bit more productive than usual. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Steelers corners are small and give up a huge size advantage to the 6’ 5” Jackson in this matchup. The Steelers did a solid job limiting the Dolphins, but quite honestly, if Culpepper was more accurate in that game Chris Chambers’ numbers would have looked much better. Palmer certainly was accurate in week 3 and the Bengals made the Steelers pay with 2 TDs passes to Chris Henry and T.J. Houshmandzadeh each. Granted, the Chargers don’t throw that much, so it’s always going to be risky using any of their WRs in a starting capacity. The difference this week is the Steelers should be able to score against the Chargers, so perhaps we’ll see Rivers throw a few more passes and maybe Jackson will be on the receiving end of those.
The Cowboys aren’t necessarily a great or even good matchup for opposing WRs, but this is all about opportunity. Lewis caught 2 TDs against the Packers (good matchup) on MNF. He also benefited from both of the Eagles starting WRs leaving the game due to injuries. Both could be limited again this week, so Lewis is a player you might be able to yank off the waiver wire and roll the dice on if you’re in a tight spot this week. Lewis has 9 catches for 155 yards on the season.
Tight End Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The Giants have allowed most fantasy points to opposing WRs and TEs. The Colts Dallas Clark produced 3-29-1 and backup Ben Utecht had 3-21-0. L.J. Smith, who has been hot in the first quarter of the season, torched them for seven catches, 111 yards and no TDs. Will Heller, the Seahawks third TE who was forced into action due to injuries, caught three balls for 28 yards and a TD. Last year, Cooley’s numbers against the Giants looked like this: 3-19-0 (week 8) and 5-41-1 (week 16). Cooley came alive last week and there’s a good chance he could make it two weeks in a row given this strong matchup.
If you’ve read this article in it’s entirety so far, then you’re probably saying, “Ok, I get it. Start all your Vikings. It’s the Lions”. Indeed, that’s the point. The Lions pass defense, in particular, has struggled in the first quarter of the season. Tight ends are getting in on the fun as much as the receivers and quarterbacks, but naturally to a lesser extent. None of the Lions opponents heavily involve TEs in their offense, so it stands to reason they wouldn’t be as productive as if they played Kansas City, San Diego and Baltimore. That being said, the following players have scored TDs against the Lions so far: Joel Klopfenstein, Desmond Clark and John Gilmore (2). Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
The Raiders have allowed four TDs to opposing TEs in just three games. They have not allowed a lot of yardage or catches, so it remains to be seen if the TDs are a fluke or just happenstance because of their opponent’s play calling in the red zone. Whatever it is, Norv Turner is probably taking notes and looking to exploit it this week.
Smith’s production has been sparse in the first three games, but he did produce four catches for 72 yards in week three. It’s hard to compare the Saints track record so far given that they’ve played against some talented TEs who are leveraged consistently in their offenses. Kellen Winslow produced 8-63-1 in week one and Alge Crumpler finished with 5-49-0, despite dropping a TD in the end zone. A better comparison is the Packers in week 2. Bubba Franks caught three balls for 18 yards while backup David Martin recorded six catches for 44 yards. The risk involved here involves rookie Bruce Gradkowski making his first NFL start. That seems like an inhibiting factor, but it could also lead to more check-downs and targets for Smith as a safety value. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Ben Utecht start last week’s game nursing a groin injury and left the game with a tight back. He may be limited this week and the Colts have been using two TE sets predominantly this year. Fletcher benefited last week and we expect that to continue this week as well.
In the last two games, opposing TEs haven’t produced anything noteworthy against the Colts, but in the first two games they allowed 3 TDs to three different TEs – Jeremy Shockey, Owen Daniels and Mark Bruener. Scaife has been remarkably productive and consistent thus far despite the presence of Ben Troupe. He’s not a great start, but he’s definitely a guy worth reaching for if you’re in a deeper leagues or lack better options. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Conwell didn’t catch a pass in the Saints first few games, but he came alive
last week with five catches for 37 yards. The Bucs have done a good job
against the TE this year limiting the Panthers and Falcons (Alge Crumpler)
to one catch, but the Ravens were not as easily contained. Todd Heap and
Daniel Wilcox combined for 8 receptions, 98 yards and 1 TD in the season
opener drubbing of the Bucs. Given that Conwell didn’t produce a single
catch in three games, he’s obviously a major reach, but in the “What have
you done for me?” category, Conwell looks like a decent gamble, albeit one
of desperation. |
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