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This article is a weekly look at player generally ranked outside the realm of every week starters. The players covered here usually fall into two categories: those with a good matchup or those who have an opportunity to start because of an injury to a teammate. On the other hand, sometimes a player may be considered if they are normal a starter, but have a bad matchup. Each position is covered with in descending order beginning with the players who are better gambles and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome. Quarterback Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
If you’re a Bledsoe owner, then the glass is looking half-full this week. Bledsoe played poorly in the season opener against a tough Jacksonville defense that also caused Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger problems. In week two, Bledsoe rebounded with a 237 yard effort with 2 TDs. By contrast, the Titans have allowed the 5th most production to opposing QBs in the first three weeks. Chad Pennington and Philip Rivers had strong games against the Titans while Daunte Culpepper was mediocre at best, but a rushing TD saved his bottom line. Whether Terrell Owens plays or not remains to be seen, but Bledsoe looks safe to use this week against the soft Titans secondary.
Culpepper had a strong matchup last week (at least on paper), but he still didn’t light up the scoreboard against the Titans. He completed 17-of-26 for 168 yards. Not impressive, but he didn’t commit any turnovers and he added a rushing TD to boost his fantasy stats. This week, it’s do-or-die time for C-Pep. The Texans are allowing 325 passing yds/gm with 7 TDs against just one interception making them the #1 matchup for QBs through the first three weeks. If you’ve been riding Culpepper like a jockey cracking that whip and hoping for more production, sit tight and hope this is the week he answers the call. If not, you should seriously consider your other options going forward.
Statistically, the Raiders defense appears to be an anomaly. They “allowed” only 108 passing yards in week one to San Diego (8-of-11 with 1 TD) and Steve McNair only threw for 143 yards with a TD and an interception in week two against them. However, both of those games were lopsided and both of those teams ran the ball extensively after jumping out to early leads. On the other hand, Frye has been incredibly productive in the first three games. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are quickly emerging as legitimate big play targets and the Browns are getting every thing they can get out of Frye’s talents. He’s ranked among the top 10 of fantasy QBs despite having seven turnovers to his credit, so he’s worth a gamble knowing he’s produced against much tougher foes like Baltimore and Cincinnati. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Don’t look now, but David Carr has quietly putting together some solid stats after three games. He’s thrown for more than 200 yards in each game with 6 TDs against 1 INT. That’s good enough for a top 10 ranking (PPG) using FBG standing scoring. By contrast, the Dolphins defense allowed 269 passing yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs to Kerry freaking Collins last week. Charlie Batch threw for 209 yards and 3 TDs against them in week one. As an added bonus, the Texans pass defense has been beaten repeatedly, which means the Texans figure to give up a lot of points this year so Carr will have ample opportunity to throw the ball and continue producing some decent stats at the end of each day.
The Rams defense was a solid target for QB matchups over the past few seasons, but the tide may be turning this year under new defensive coordinator Jim Haslet. The Rams intercepted Jake Plummer and Kurt Warner 3 times while applying a constant pass rush in all three of their games thus far. The Lions offensive line isn’t pretty, so the Rams will get to Kitna and probably force a couple of turnovers in this game, too. On the positive side, Kitna fared reasonably well in the stat sheet against Seattle (21-of-37, 229 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) and Chicago (23-30-230-0-0 with a rushing TD). Against the Packers, Kitna fared much better (25-40-342-2-1). It’s Mike Martz’s return to St. Louis, too. The Lions may not look pretty, but Kitna should produce solid stats. If your leagues penalizes for interceptions, then take that into consideration. If it doesn’t, then use Kitna with a bit more confidence.
The Redskins aren’t one of the best matchups of the weeks, but they aren’t a bad matchup either. In three games they’ve allowed 223 passing yards and 1 TD to Brad Johnson, 237 yards and 2 TDs to Drew Bledsoe and 208 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT to David Carr. Leftwich is arguably as good as, or better than, each of those quarterbacks. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Only six other teams have allowed more fantasy production to QBs than the 49ers through three weeks. The 49ers are allowing an average of 261 passing yds/gm with 2 TDs/gm (and no interceptions) to opposing QBs through three games. Huard is a risky option, but his numbers aren’t completely horrible in the last two games and as a reach, I’ve seen much worse. After replacing Trent Green, Huard completed 29-of-43 for 273 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions over the Chiefs last two games.
Let’s be clear. This is not a good matchup, whether it’s Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner starting. The Falcons have not allowed a passing TD in three games but they’ve intercepted four passes. Chris Simms threw for 313 yards, but most of that came playing “catch up” ball against a more relaxed Falcons defense. Drew Brees and Jake Delhomme were held under 200 yards. Even though Warner’s play has been mostly terrible, it’s hard to imagine him throwing for less than 200 yards just knowing he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin as targets. Still, this is a major reach from a fantasy perspective and I wouldn’t recommend playing Russian Roulette with Warner in this situation. Denny Green may have Warner on a short leash, so if he gets off to a rocky start here, then Matt Leinart could see action. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
If you’re actually pondering whether to start Andrew Walter or not, then we all sympathize with you. The Raiders offense is stuck in the ditch right now. On the bright side, there are some good signs to hang your hat on if you look long enough. The Browns defense is allowing 264 passing yds/gm in the first three weeks. Steve McNair threw for 264 yards and a TD with no INTs last week. Walter has struggled badly since taking over for the injured Aaron Brooks, so don’t expect McNair-like numbers here. On the other hand, Walter should fare better than he did against the Ravens defense (10-of-27 for 162 yards, 3 INTs).
Running Back Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The Titans actually did a decent job defending the run last week holding the
Dolphins Ronnie Brown to 90 yards rushing on 26 carries (100 combined
yards). However, the previous week the Chargers rolled up on Tennessee for
209 yards, 2 TDs with 10 receptions and 69 yards between LaDainian Tomlinson
and Michael Turner. The Cowboys running game isn’t nearly as lethal as the
Chargers, but it’s about as good as the Dolphins, perhaps better since they
have two backs to lean on. Unfortunately, that hurts Jones more than it
helps his bottom line.
It is now Wednesday and the Colts are still trying to figure out how to stop Maurice Jones-Drew. The Colts are allowing a ridiculous 153.7 rushing yds/gm to opposing RBs through three games – not to mention 5+ receptions and 44.7 receiving yds per game to backs. The Jets aren’t very good on the ground, but the Colts interior defense is struggling and Barlow may be able to take advantage of that to produce his best game of the year this week. Only two other teams have allowed more fantasy points to RBs (Houston and Oakland).
Opposing RBs are averaging 151 yds/gm rushing against the Raiders with 3 TDs. Droughns was inactive last week, so let’s make sure he’s a go before using him in this situation. However, if it looks like he’ll start, then he is worth using as a RB2 or flex option. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Morris gets the starting nod with Shaun Alexander sidelined for a month or longer with a broken bone in his foot. Unfortunately, his immediate opportunity to produce is diminished by a super tough matchup against the Bears (followed with a bye next week). The Bears have not allowed a TD to an opposing RB yet in three games, but Ahman Green enjoyed some success in week 1. Chester Taylor combined for 89 yards on 20 carries and 3 catches last week, so Morris is still worth a gamble if you’re needy.
Until one of the Colts running backs takes control of the RBBC situation, it will be extremely difficult relying on either one for consistent production. However, if the matchup is strong, then you should consider using each one as a RB2/RB3/flex option. The Jets defense allowed 151 rushing yards to the Bills and Willis McGahee last week and 148 yards to the Patriots RB combination the previous week. The Titans struggling offense even managed 86 yards and 2 TDs against the Jets. Rhodes and Addai could both get scoring opportunities here and there’s a chance that both could produce enough combined yards to warrant a risky start as a RB2 or RB3. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Corey Dillon was sidelined last week. If he’s limited in this game, then bump
Maroney up from a “solid reach” to a “prime cut”. The Bengals allowed 157
yards rushing to the Steelers last week as Willie Parker ran wild in a
losing effort. They did a great job on Larry Johnson in week one as the
Chiefs RBs managed just 68 yards on 17 carries in that game. Keep an eye on
Dillon’s status. Even if he plays, Maroney has more value, but if he sits,
then start Maroney and don’t look back.
Depending on the Chris Brown’s status, Henry could be a solid play this week, especially in PPR leagues. If Brown is in the lineup, then expect fewer carries and yards out of Henry, but he remains the Titans short-yardage and goal line option, so there’s a good chance he could get into the end zone. The Cowboys have done a good job stuffing the run, but opposing backs have caught 15 passes for 126 yards in two games against them.
Robinson took advantage of a goal-line fumble and subsequent injury to Frank Gore last week to rush for two 2 TDs and most likely take over the goal-line role moving forward. Robinson is a strong runner with soft hands and a good opportunity this week. Maurice Hicks sprained his ankle last week and Gore has sore ribs, so don’t be surprised if Robinson picks up some extra touches this week and provides some useful stats as a RB3/flex option. The Chiefs allowed 118 combined yards and 2 TDs to the Bengals backs (mostly Rudi Johnson) and 31 carries for 131 yards with 5 catches and 44 yards to the Broncos (Tatum and Mike Bell). If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Dolphins run defense is allowing just 91.7 rushing yds/gm to opposing RBs with no TDs. Ron Dayne is set to start for the second week in a row, but look for the Texans to give more carries to Samkon Gado this week. That means you probably shouldn’t expect much more than 50-to-60 yards from Dayne and probably a little less from Gado.
Wide Receiver Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The Patriots have allowed 4 TDs to opposing WRs in the first three games and Henry is like a TD magnet. He went 5-113-0 against Cleveland last week and he caught 2 TDs this week (5-69-2). The Jets allowed two TDs to Javon Walker last week. In week two, the Jets produced two long TDs (Coles and Cotchery). T.J. Houshmandzadeh is back in the starting lineup, but Henry is just as dangerous out of the slot with presumably better matchups.
The Eagles secondary is a great matchup for opposing WRs having allowed a
collective 13.7 receptions, 197.7 yards, and 1.3 TDs per game. Jennings has
scored in two of the Packers three games. Coming off two strong games in a
row and with a strong matchup against the Eagles banged-up secondary,
Jennings is a solid option this week.
With Donte’ Stallworth inactive last week and recovering from a tweaked hamstring, look for Reggie Brown to continue playing a larger role in the Eagles offense against the Packers. Green Bay is allowing 182 yds/gm and 1.3 TDs/gm to opposing WRs in their first three games. Brown produced 102 yards on five catches last week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Look for Eddie to get back on track this week against the 49ers. Kennison has
just three catches for 53 yards in the Chiefs first two games. The good news
is the 49ers allowed Reggie Brown 5 catches for 106 yards last week. Torry
Holt had 5 catches, 30 yards and a TD the previous week and the Cardinals
dynamic tandem produced 9-133-0 (Fitz) and 4-62-1 (Boldin). Kennison or
Parker could score in double digits this week, but if you had to choose it
would be Kennison first, Parker second.
The Texans defense is an easy target allowing 13 catches and 201 yards per game and 4 TDs to opposing WRs (Reggie Brown, Stallworth, Stokley, Randle-El). There’s due pressure on Daunte Culpepper to deliver the goods this week and Booker’s value is hitched to Culpepper’s wagon – a shaky proposition. Chris Chambers catches most of the TDs, but Marty Booker and Wesley Welker are good reaches if you’re shaky at WR this week. Four different receivers have scored TDs in 3 games.
The Rams did a great job on Jake Plummer and the Broncos passing attack in the first week of the season. The next week, Antonio Bryant (4-131-1) and Arnaz Battle (3-78-0) both had solid games. Last week, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald both produced strong games and Bryant Johnson caught a 54-yard pass against them. Furrey has been targeted 6, 8 and 7 times producing 14 catches for 160 yards. The former Ram should have a good game for the Lions playing back in St. Louis on the turf.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
If Reggie Wayne doesn’t return to the team and play this weekend, then either
Brandon Stokley or Aaron Moorehead will start for the Colts this week. The
Jets have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing WRs through
three games (14.3 receptions, 207 yards and 0.7 TDs per game). Most of the
WRs who started against the Jets in the first three games were productive.
All of them had at least 50 yards or a TD. If Stokley can go this week, he’s
worth a gamble, but if not then Moorehead could be a decent waiver wire
special for one week.
Parker has been targeted 10 times in the first two games compared to Kennison’s three, but he’s only produced 7 catches for 61 yards. The good news is their opponent this week, San Francisco, allowed Reggie Brown to catch 5 passes for 106 yards last week. Torry Holt had 5 catches, 30 yards and a TD the previous week and the Cardinals dynamic tandem produced 9-133-0 (Fitz) and 4-62-1 (Boldin) in the opener. Kennison or Parker could score in double digits this week, but if you had to choose it would be Kennison first, Parker second.
The Texans defense is an easy target allowing 13 catches and 201 yards per game and 4 TDs to opposing WRs (Reggie Brown, Stallworth, Stokley, Randle-El). There’s due pressure on Daunte Culpepper to deliver the goods this week and Booker’s value is hitched to Culpepper’s wagon – a shaky proposition. Chris Chambers catches most of the TDs, but Marty Booker and Wesley Welker are good reaches if you’re shaky at WR this week. Four different receivers have scored TDs in 3 games.
Wilford was targeted 5, 6 and 6 times in the first three games. He has 10 catches for 117 yards on the season. The Redskins are mostly a neutral matchup, but Andre Johnson exploded for 11-152-0 against them last week. Marcus Robinson, Patrick Crayton and Terry Glenn have scored TDs against the Redskins. Wilford’s chance of scoring is enhanced by Matt Jones being less than 100%. Reggie Williams has been the better option so far, but Wilford is perfectly capable of catching TDs.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
If Reggie Wayne doesn’t return to the team and play this weekend, then either
Brandon Stokley or Aaron Moorehead will start for the Colts this week. The
Jets have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing WRs through
three games (14.3 receptions, 207 yards and 0.7 TDs per game). Most of the
WRs who started against the Jets in the first three games were productive.
All of them had at least 50 yards or a TD. If Stokley can go this week, he’s
worth a gamble, but if not then Moorehead could be a decent waiver wire
special for one week.
Davis broke free for the go-ahead TD in the 4th quarter last week against the Vikings. Seattle has allowed 13 receptions and 161 yards per game with 4 TDs to opposing WRs. Much of that damage came last week when the Seahawks blew out the Giants. It’s hard to expect consistent production here with Muhammad and Berrian being targeted most frequently and TE Desmond Clark being leveraged heavily. That said, Clark hurt his foot last week so the Bears could use their WRs more and their TE less giving Davis more opportunity.
Hurd is an insurance policy this week for Terrell Owens. If, for any reason, Owens doesn’t play, then Hurd would likely start opposite Terry Glenn, not Patrick Crayton. HC Bill Parcells said he would not switch Crayton to the other side, giving Hurd an opportunity to start against the Titans. Tennessee did a good job against the Dolphins last week limiting Chambers to 4-39-0. Vincent Jackson scored and Keenan McCardell produced 58 yards in week two and the Jets starting WRs had the most success (Coles 8-153-0 and Cotchery 6-65-1). If Owens plays, then don’t consider Hurd and look to Patrick Crayton as a worthwhile reach. He’s the team’s No. 3 WR.
Tight End
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Here’s a player that is simply too talented to not produce for this long. He’s been eerily quiet this season (6 catches, 59 yards in 3 games). The Texans have allowed the following in their three games: 6-56-0 to the Eagles (L.J. Smith), 6-67-0 to the Colts (Clark, Utecht, Fletcher) and 4-18-0 to the Redskins (Cooley). Let’s just say McMichael is likely to outperform his average of 2 catches and 19 yards this week.
Opposing TEs have combined for 5 or more catches in each of the Colts first three games. In two of those three games, they scored a TD (3 total). The only tight end they’ve faced of any significance is Jeremy Shockey, so Baker could be good for 3 or 4 catches and 30 or 40 yards this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Wrighster has been semi-consistent this season catching three of more balls in all three games played so far. The Redskins are allowing 5.3 catches per game, 45.7 yds/gm and 2 TDs to opposing TEs, but it’s not exactly a great matchup knowing Sean Taylor is roaming the secondary serving as a menace to opposing receivers.
If the Bengals TEs can combine for three catches and 44 yards against the Browns, then Anderson has a fighting chance – considering how infrequently the Bengals TEs get balls thrown their way on a passing friendly team. Last week, the Ravens Todd Heap and Daniel Wilcox combined for 6 catches, 46 yards and a TD against the Browns. Starting any of the Raiders is a reach and Anderson has just 3 catches for 35 yards in two games.
Franks is overdue for his first TD of the season. Eric Johnson had a great game against the Eagles last week and the Eagles defense has a few key defenders out due to injury (Sheppard, McCoy and Kearse). Franks has six catches for 57 yards in three games – all of which came in the last two games.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Texans rookie tight end caught his 2nd TE of the season last week and this week he faces a Dolphins defense that allowed 5 receptions, 94 yards and a TD to the Titans TEs (Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe). It’s difficult to compare the Bills TE production because they don’t typically target them often in the passing game. In week one, you may remember Heath Miller of the Steelers getting behind the Dolphins defense for a long TE – as they racked up 101 yards on three catches against Miami. Daniels isn’t consistent enough to warrant starting consideration in most leagues yet, but he’s developing nicely and this looks like a good spot to use him if you’re regular starter is hurt or on the bye. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Packers TEs combined for 5 catches and 79 yards against the Lions last week. In week 2, the Bears Desmond Clark and John Gilmore combined for 7 catches, 93 yards and 3 TDs. Klopfenstein only produced anything useful in week 2 and did nothing in weeks 1 and 3, so he’s definitely a major reach, but the Lions have the tendency to bring out the best in TEs.
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