Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
| ||||
|
|
Login / Signup |
|
 |
Pre · 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10 · 11 · 12 · 13 · 14 · 15 · 16 · 17 · P1 · P2 · P3 · P4 |
This article is a weekly look at player generally ranked outside the realm of every week starters. The players covered here usually fall into two categories: those with a good matchup or those who have an opportunity to start because of an injury to a teammate. On the other hand, sometimes a player may be considered if they are normal a starter, but have a bad matchup. Each position is covered with in descending order beginning with the players who are better gambles and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome. Quarterback Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The Titans defense may be just what the doctor ordered for Culpepper owners this week. They allowed Philip Rivers to complete 25 of his 35 pass attempts for 235 yards and a TD last week. Chad Pennington threw for 319 yards and two TDs on 24-of-33 passing in week one. Culpepper’s play has been disappointing, but this is a prime-time matchup. If he’s going to rebound quickly, then this is just the spot for him to do so.
The Packers allowed 353 yards and 2 TDs to Drew Brees at home last week. Rex Grossman threw for 262 yards and a TD in week one against Green Bay. Kitna hasn’t looked great in the first two weeks. The blocking up front continues to be poor, but he has completed 65.7% of his passes and thrown for 459 yards in two games (with no TDs). Kitna is worth a reach this week against the soft, beatable Packers secondary.
The Colts allowed Eli Manning to throw for 247 yards on 20-of-34 passing with 2 TDs and one interception in the season opener. This past week, the infallible David Carr completed 22-of-26 for 219 yards with 3 TDs and no interceptions on the road in Indy. Leftwich threw for 300 yards in both games against Indy in 2004, but last year he managed only 198 yards and no TDs. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
After a wretched start, Favre is looking for his second solid outing in a row against the Lions at Ford Field. The Lions allowed Rex Grossman to throw for 288 yards on 21-of-28 passing with four TDs this past week. They held Matt Hasselbeck down to just 210 yards in week one, but he still completed 25-of-30 passes. Favre is anything but reliable these days and his production against Detroit was less than desirable in 2005 - 48 for 75 for 371 yards with no TDs and 3 INTs in the two games combined. In 2004, his stats were on the opposite end of the spectrum. To quote our great Doug Drinen, “splits happen”. As such, I would look more closely at the Lions most recent matchups as opposed to past matchups with Green Bay. The bottom line is you should only use Favre if you clearly understand the risk that comes with the territory. He’s not without significant risk these days.
The Ravens aren’t going to become a pass-happy team this year. Their defense is playing excellent football and they simply don’t need to throw a whole lot to sustain drives and beat their foes so far. That might not change this week either, but the Browns corners are beatable and this is just might be the right spot for McNair to find the end zone a couple times. It’s unfair to judge the Browns defense by how they fared against an elite QB like Carson Palmer, but he did complete 24-of-40 passes for 352 yards with a pair of touchdowns last week. Drew Brees is a better comp. He threw for 176 yards with a TD and an interception.
For the third straight week the Eagles will face a quarterback who was drafted #1. David Carr was their week one opponent. He completed 18-of-27 for 208 yards and a TD. Last week, Eli Manning led the Giants on a huge 4th quarter comeback as he wound up completing 31 passes in 43 attempts for 371 yards with 3 TDs and an interception. He would’ve had a 4th TD had Plaxico Burress not fumbled the ball at the goal line. Smith has outperformed expectations in the first two weeks, so look for him to extend his “streak” with another solid outing here. The Eagles secondary is stretched thin due to multiple injuries. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Through the first two games, Mark Brunell hasn’t thrown a TD pass and he’s been limited to just 360 yards passing with one interception. The Texans have allowed 714 passing yards, 6 TDs and 1 interception in their first two games. Granted, it’s a small sampling and the Texans just happened to face Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, so take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Carr has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners in the first two games. He’s still not playing up to the expectations that befit a #1 overall pick, but at least he’s been serviceable. Meanwhile, the Redskins allowed Brad Johnson to throw for 223 yards on 16-of-30 passing for a TD in the season opener. In week two, Drew Bledsoe rebounded nicely against the Redskins following a poor opener. He threw for 237 yards and two touchdowns. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Playing only part of the game, Young actually produced some decent fantasy stats for the Titans last week. Kerry Collins remains the starter heading into this week, but Young is expected to play once again, perhaps extensively. He’s not starting in most leagues, but he could be worth reaching for in leagues that require two starting QBs. The Dolphins secondary is a bit shaky right now. They allowed 209 yards and 3 TDs to Charlie Batch in week one, but J.P. Losman produced only 83 yards on 11-of-18 passing with one TD in week two.
Running Back Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Jones is definitely catching the football more this year than ever before. The Saints RBs combined for 13 catches and 123 receiving yards last week against Green Bay. Deuce McAllister also scored a pair of TDs. If you bought into Jones this year, then you’re still looking for that elusive first breakout performance of the year. This may not be a breakout for Jones, but it’s certainly a decent matchup and he’s got a reasonable chance to top 100 yards and score.
The Browns have allowed 150+ rushing yards (collectively) to opposing RBs in each of their first two games. Last week, Rudi Johnson ran rampant over them on his way to 2 TDs. Lewis should have his best game of the young season this week with a good chance to top 100 yards and score.
The Colts have allowed 284 yards rushing to opposing RBs on just 47 carries with one TD in the first two games – that 1 yard shy of 5 yards/carry. RBs have also caught 11 passes for 98 yards in those two games. Taylor had mixed results against the Colts last year. In week two, he combined for 99 yards on 18 carries and 3 catches. In week 13, Taylor didn’t have as much luck rushing for just 19 yards on 10 carries. Taylor ran hard against a tough Steelers defense on MNF gaining 121 combined yards (22 carries and 3 catches). The Colts defense isn’t looking as good against the run this year, so look for Taylor to have another strong performance in this game. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
The Dolphins numbers weren’t stellar against the Bills, but they averaged well over 4 yards per carry. In the first game, Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon led the charge as the Patriots RBs combined for 180 yards rushing on 36 carries and they caught three passes for 39 yards and a TD, too. Barlow isn’t a strong option, but given the matchup he’s definitely worth a flyer. He emerged as the Jets lead back last week and if he continues in that same role – as we expect him to do – then he could easily be a solid RB2 option this week.
The Bucs vaunted defense is looking rather ordinary in their first two games. The Falcons look like they could run the ball on anyone though. Their RBs combined for 179 yards rushing and two receptions for 16 yards and a TD last week. The Ravens RBs combined for 109 yards rushing with a TD in week one. Foster needs a strong outing to stave off the challenge presented by rookie DeAngelo Williams. Foster didn’t produce much in either game against Tampa last year, so he’s no slam dunk. In fact, he’s a bit of a reach. We shall see if the Bucs defense wakes up this week. If not, Foster could be a decent sleeper this week. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Clinton Portis is expected to play this week, so it's hard to predict exactly how many touches Betts will get against Houston. The Texans allowed 123 yards rushing to the opposing RBs in each of the last two weeks – not to mention a total of 4 TDs. Betts should see a fair amount of action even with Portis back on the field, so use him if it makes sense (especially as a flex option).
The Broncos defense has been surprisingly beatable on the ground in the first two games. The Rams RBs combined for 201 yards (128 rushing, 72 receiving) in week one and the Chiefs combined for 186 yards (145 rushing, 41 receiving) last week. Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney have been splitting time almost equally, so it’s difficult to project either one having a stellar day, but both could be serviceable.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Gary Kubiak could give Gado a larger role in the Texans offense this week. Wali Lundy fumbled the ball and Ron Dayne didn’t stand out, while Gado made a few big plays on runs. Kubiak will probably give each of these three an opportunity this week, but Gado could wind up getting more carries than last week and eventually squeeze Lundy and Dayne out of a committee approach.
The Ravens are hoping to get back to what they used to do routinely against the Browns - run the ball down their throats with great success. Smith’s role has grown substantially since the beginning of training camp and the Browns, while not as soft as in year’s past, remains very beatable on the ground making Smith a decent player to reach for if you’re in dire straights.
Wide Receiver
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Brown tweaked his hamstring in Sunday’s game, so be sure to check his status on the injury report before using him. Let’s hope it’s not a Steve Smith-like injury, but something that will allow him to suit up this weekend. Brown has an excellent matchup if he’s able to go. The 49ers held the Rams WRs in check last week (14 receptions, 128 yards and 1 TD) but the Cardinals had a field day in the opener (17-261-2). The Eagles like the throw the ball around, so if Brown is well enough to start, then he’s a good gamble. If Brown is not able to go then consider Hank Baskett as more of a reach, but certainly someone with some potential to score.
Last week, Amani Toomer repeatedly beat the Eagles secondary for big play after big play. He caught 12 passes for 137 yards and a pair of TDs. This week, with Antonio Bryant drawing more coverage, Battle has a chance to produce nice statistics as well. He produced 78 yards on three catches against the Rams – including one reception that covered 56 yards. The Eagles corners are banged up with Lito Sheppard sidelined and his replacement – Rod Hood – also hurt. Battle figures to have the best matchup in this game, so use him if it makes sense.
Not only has Colston found the end zone in each of his first two starts in the NFL, but he’s TE-eligible in some fantasy leagues giving his value a tremendous boost. The Bucs WRs, while playing from behind, caught 20 passes for 276 yards last week. With Colston, you might as well strike while the iron is hot. He’s being targeted frequently each week and the Saints could be in a similar situation to the Bucs and the Panthers before them – passing often and playing catch up football.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
In his first start last week, Furrey produced six catches for 67 yards (most of
which came in the first half). The Packers have allowed the 5th most fantasy
points to WRs through the first two games. They allowed 151 yards on seven
catches with a TD to the Bears WRs in week one. Last week, the Saints WRs
produced 12 catches for 197 yards and 2 TDs against the Packers.
Booker has six catches for 97 yards through the first two games facing a pair of better than average secondaries (Pittsburgh and Buffalo). This week, the matchup looks much better on paper as the Dolphins face the Titans at home in Miami. Tennessee has been abused over the last couple of years through the air. In their first two games, they were shredded by the Jets WRs to the tune of 17 catches, 265 yards and a TD. In week two, the Chargers WRs combined for 9 receptions, 107 yards and 1 TD. Chris Chambers should benefit the most, but Booker and, to a lesser degree, Wesley Welker could also see more targets and better numbers.
Branch is expected to see the field this week while splitting time with No. 2 WR Nate Burleson. He’s a risky play not knowing how he’ll fit in immediately, but the Giants have allowed more than 150 yards receiving to opposing teams (WRs) in each of the first two games. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Henry will continue to be a regular in this column until T.J. Houshmandzadeh returns to the starting lineup. Henry is simply too talented to ignore when given a larger role due to Housh’s injury. Plus, Chad Johnson may be less than 100% this week (check the injury report for the status on both players first). This could be the week for Henry to get into the end zone. Last week he broke free for several big plays, but never scored. The Steelers secondary has allowed a surprising amount of production to opposing WRs so far. 13 catches for 204 yards to the Dolphins WRs and, last week, 18 catches for 195 yards to the Jags WRs.
Opposing WRs have produced solid numbers against the Colts through two weeks, but not as much as one might expect. In 2005, the Jags WRs combined for the following stats against the Colts: 9-120-0 at Indy in week 3, 16-178-1 at home in week 14. Neither Reggie Williams nor Ernest Wilford produced TDs in those games, but both are co-starters in 2006 alongside Matt Jones. Both are capable of producing good numbers, but neither one should be expected to produce top 20 stats by any means. It is worth noting, however, that Reggie Williams leads the Jags with 14 receptions for 142 yards and 1 TD after two games, while Wilford has 7 catches for 85 yards with no TDs.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
The Packers WRs combined for 15 catches, 224 yards and a pair of TDs against the Saints last week. Lelie could see extended playing time this week if Roddy White isn’t 100%. Lelie is definitely a stretch, but the Saints can be beaten deep, especially once Vick starts running around and extending plays for his receivers to break loose down the field.
Through two games, Lloyd has a grand total of one catch for 6 yards. It would be better to let him produce in a few games before using him, but if you’re hard-pressed, he might be a decent gamble given the inviting matchup. The Texans have allowed 27 receptions, 474 yards and 3 TDs to the Eagles and Colts WRs in the first two weeks of the season
Tight End Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
The Bengals have played two teams with productive TEs in their first two games,
so it’s tough to compare them to other teams fairly. They allowed 10
receptions for 81 yards and a TD to Tony Gonzalez in the first week and 6
catches for 55 yards to the Browns (Winslow, Heiden) last week. Miller had a
huge game one, but he caught just one pass for 11 yards this week. Look for
Miller to play a bigger role this week.
In the last five times that Green Bay played Detroit, Bubba Frank caught either three or four passes – but in only one of those games did he catch a TD pass. The later is the key to gambling on and starting Franks. It’s worth noting that the Bears beat the Lions over the head with their TEs in the red zone last week to the tune of three TDs and seven catches for 93 yards overall. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
L.J. Smith enjoyed a solid game in week one against Houston (6-56-0) and the Colts TEs combined for good production last week (6-67-1). Cooley has been remarkably quiet this year, but we expect that to change. With only three catches in two games, Cooley might be considered a risky start so if you have better options than consider them. If not, stick with Cooley and hope he can produce similar numbers to Smith and the Colts’ TEs.
As a rookie, it’s hard to have any real expectations for Daniels as a consistent fantasy producer. He didn’t catch a pass in the first game on two targets, but last week he broke through with 4 catches for 45 yards and a TD on 5 targets. The Redskins allowed seven catches for 84 yards to the Cowboys TEs and six catches for 37 yards to the Vikings TEs in week one. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
The Panthers opponents have thrown a TD pass to a tight end in each of their first two games. Smith has been transparent in the first two games with only two catches for 18 yards (no catches in week 2). He’s obviously a risky play, but given the production the Panthers have allowed so far, he might be worth a gamble. Smith was expected to play a larger role in the Bucs offense this year, but as a whole, they’ve struggled out of the gate so maybe Chris Simms can get them back on track this week and Smith will be useful.
Wrighster has caught 3 balls in each of the team’s first two games. At some
point, we expect Marcedes Lewis to emerge and surpass Wrighster on the depth
chart and with respect to production, but don’t expect that to happen this
week. The Colts have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to TEs through two
games, so Wrighster is worth a gamble if your other options are weak or if
your starter is on a bye week (Gates, Gonzalez, Witten). |
|
|
Site Map | Contact
Us | Login
/ Signup
©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved. |