Fantasy information, fantasy Fantasy news, Fantasy articles, Fantasy rankings           Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players


Forums
News
Login / Signup  
  Home  
Articles
•  Forecast  
•  Humor  
•  Links  
•  Players  
•  Stats  
•  Tools  
•  Updates  
 
PPR Myths and Reality
Posted 8/14 by David Shick, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Typical Fantasy draft:

  • 1.01 RB
  • 1.02 RB
  • 1.03 RB
  • 1.04 RB
  • 1.05 RB
  • 1.06 RB
  • 1.07 RB
  • 1.08 RB
  • 1.09 RB
  • 1.10 RB
  • 1.11 RB
  • 1.12 RB
  • 2.01 QB

Ooooooh. Ever see a draft start with twelve straight running backs? Well, yeah, all the time. Big deal. The 2006 Fan Ex draft started this way. Ever see a draft that didn't start with at least nine or ten running backs in the first round? Not so much. We participate in a hobby that's running back crazy. Why? Let's save that for another day. The reality is that running backs are a premium in fantasy football, almost regardless of your scoring system and lineup requirements. Yes, I know some folks have adopted a system where this isn't the case. Congrats to the two percent of those leagues who have evolved beyond the rest of the Neanderthals like me. I don't mind the running back mayhem. I'm used to it. I understand it. Call me inflexible.

Hey! Here's an idea. Let's add a point for every reception. It will increase the value of the wide receivers and tight ends. Even though the running backs catch a few balls too the stereotypical pass catchers pull in more. Right? Sure they do. Don't they?

Note: I'm not interested in debating how we can best level all the positions so running backs don't dominate your first round. Again, I don't mind it so much. I'm interested in looking at what happens with adding PPR to your league. It exists. How do we best take advantage of it?

Hey again! Let's look at the data. The numbers. Thanks to our Dr. Drinen for helping me pull this all together quickly. I actually wrote a similar article on this topic back in 2001. I had to grind all the numbers out myself. Took hours and hours and hours and hours. What can I say? I like Excel and had lots of free time. Yeah. You didn't need to know that and it might detract from that uber-cool persona I exude on the message board. Ummmm. Yeah.

WHAT I DID

  • In order to come up with an average season, I averaged the top scoring players at QB, RB, WR, and TE spanning the 1996 to 2005 seasons data based on a points per game basis. Focusing in on the data of just a season or two seems sort of narrow and short sighted.
  • Using a performance based scoring system I examined overall points and VBD value numbers based on last available starter as a baseline with and without 1 point per reception so I could compare the changes.
  • Scenarios revolve around a 12 team league with the following scoring system:
    • Passing TD = 4 pts
    • 30 yards passing = 1 pt
    • Rush / Rec TD = 6 pts
    • 10 yards rush / rec = 1 pt
    • Reception = 1 pt & 0 pt (Did scoring twice, once with each case)
    • 2 pt pass/rush/rec = 2 pts
    • Teams expected to start:
      • 1 QB
      • 2 RB
      • 3 WR
      • 1 TE
      • PK and DT? Meh. There's always one Richard willing to be the first to take a PK and DT. Don't be a Richard.

IDEAS TO INVESTIGATE

  • The WR and TE positions should benefit the most, but how much? Using VBD concepts we can put a numerical value on this.
  • What happens to the quarterbacks? Well, their scoring won't change, so we should expect nothing to change. Duh.
  • The running back? Lots of running backs get a ton of catches. Brian Westbrook is solid gold in this scoring format. Chris Perry has been a viable option on lots of weeks when you start giving a point per reception. What I expect to happen is RB values will increase, but not as much as the WR and TE. But how much?
  • After I put all these numbers into my cheat sheets, what will my draft look like? Sample cheat sheet please? I am your humble servant.

THE AVERAGE SEASON (1996-2005)

Scoring (+0 PPR)
Scoring (+1 PPR)
Rk
QB
RB
WR
TE
Rk
QB
RB
WR
TE
1
24.2
22.8
14.9
9.7
1
24.2
26.4
21.5
14.7
2
22.4
19.6
14.0
8.2
2
22.4
23.2
20.2
12.6
3
21.2
18.4
13.0
7.2
3
21.2
21.8
19.1
11.4
4
20.4
17.7
12.5
6.6
4
20.4
20.7
18.3
10.3
5
19.8
16.8
12.0
5.9
5
19.8
19.8
17.8
9.6
6
19.4
15.9
11.8
5.6
6
19.4
18.9
17.2
9.1
7
19.1
15.1
11.7
5.3
7
19.1
18.3
16.9
8.8
8
18.7
14.7
11.3
5.1
8
18.7
17.9
16.6
8.5
9
18.4
14.3
11.2
5.0
9
18.4
17.4
16.3
7.7
10
17.7
13.9
10.9
4.8
10
17.7
16.7
16.1
7.4
11
17.3
13.6
10.7
4.5
11
17.3
16.3
15.9
7.1
12
17.1
13.3
10.4
4.4
12
17.1
15.6
15.4
6.9
13
.
13.1
10.2
.
13
.
15.4
15.3
.
14
.
12.8
10.1
.
14
.
15.1
15.1
.
15
.
12.3
9.9
.
15
.
14.7
14.8
.
16
.
11.9
9.7
.
16
.
14.4
14.7
.
17
.
11.6
9.6
.
17
.
14.1
14.4
.
18
.
11.4
9.4
.
18
.
13.6
14.1
.
19
.
11.2
9.3
.
19
.
13.3
13.9
.
20
.
10.9
9.2
.
20
.
12.9
13.6
.
21
.
10.7
8.9
.
21
.
12.8
13.4
.
22
.
10.4
8.7
.
22
.
12.5
13.3
.
23
.
10.1
8.6
.
23
.
12.3
13.2
.
24
.
10.0
8.5
.
24
.
11.9
13.0
.
25
.
.
8.3
.
25
.
.
12.8
.
26
.
.
8.3
.
26
.
.
12.5
.
27
.
.
8.2
.
27
.
.
12.3
.
28
.
.
8.1
.
28
.
.
12.1
.
29
.
.
7.9
.
29
.
.
12.0
.
30
.
.
7.9
.
30
.
.
11.8
.
31
.
.
7.8
.
31
.
.
11.7
.
32
.
.
7.6
.
32
.
.
11.6
.
33
.
.
7.5
.
33
.
.
11.4
.
34
.
.
7.4
.
34
.
.
11.3
.
35
.
.
7.3
.
35
.
.
11.2
.
36
.
.
7.2
.
36
.
.
11.0
.

Meh. Tables suck. Lets take a look at a graph or three.

  

In terms of points being scored, the quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers are pushed much closer together in a +1 PPR league.

Sure, players are scoring more in the +1 PPR league, but how much more. Let's take a look at the difference.

  

Yippee! Wide receivers and tight ends are seeing the largest gains! Success! Or is it? What happens to Value numbers? What's a value number? If you're unsure what this means you should stop immediately and go read Joe Bryant's seminal article entitled "Value Based Drafting" right now. I'll wait. Really. I have to go out another one of Joe T's alias accounts anyway on our message board.

SO WHAT ABOUT VBD VALUES?

baseline = last available starter

I'll spare you the table of data and jump right to the graphs.


Uh oh. Top running backs still have the highest value numbers. In fact, those suckers are looking pretty close to the same.

Another random thought: If you understand the concept of slope in mathematics you'll notice that the drop-off at the wide receiver position is far less than the other positions (not as steep). Translation? Your receivers will wait. Hmmm. I might need to ponder that a bit more.

Another random thought (take 2): It's worth noting where the pink (RB) and yellow (WR) lines cross in each graph. In a +0 PPR league RB14 and WR14 are approximately equivalent in value. Adding the +1 PPR drops that down to RB10 and WR10.

What if we take a quick gander at the increases in value?

Success? That depends on your goal. If you wanted to increase the value of receivers, you bet. Adding +1 PPR increases the value of receivers. It also increases the value of the top few tight ends in comparison to the running backs. Fine. This is all well and good, but what happens if you try to apply this data to a real draft using a VBD drafting philosophy?

THE DRAFT

QBs
RBs
Key
WRs
TEs
+0 PPR
Round
+1 PPR
Val #
Pick
Pick
Val #
12.9
1
One
1
14.5
9.7
2
2
11.3
8.4
3
3
10.5
7.8
4
4
9.9
7.7
5
5
9.3
7.2
6
6
8.8
6.9
7
7
8.1
6.8
8
8
7.9
5.9
9
9
7.8
5.8
10
10
7.4
5.3
11
11
7.2
5.3
12
12
6.9
5.3
13
Two
13
6.9
5.2
14
14
6.4
4.8
15
15
6.3
4.8
16
16
6.0
4.6
17
17
6.0
4.4
18
18
5.7
4.3
19
19
5.7
4.1
20
20
5.4
4.1
21
21
5.4
4.0
22
22
5.4
3.9
23
23
5.2
3.8
24
24
4.9
3.7
25
Three
25
4.8
3.6
26
26
4.6
3.5
27
27
4.5
3.4
28
28
4.4
3.4
29
29
4.4
3.2
30
30
4.1
3.1
31
31
4.1
3.0
32
32
3.9
2.9
33
33
3.7
2.8
34
34
3.7
2.8
35
35
3.5
2.8
36
36
3.5
2.7
37
Four
37
3.5
2.5
38
38
3.4
2.4
39
39
3.2
2.3
40
40
3.2
2.3
41
41
3.0
2.2
42
42
2.8
2.2
43
43
2.7
2.1
44
44
2.7
2.1
45
45
2.6
2.0
46
46
2.5
1.9
47
47
2.5
1.7
48
48
2.4
1.7
49
Five
49
2.3
1.7
50
50
2.3
1.5
51
51
2.2
1.5
52
52
2.2
1.4
53
53
2.1
1.4
54
54
2.1
1.4
55
55
2.0
1.3
56
56
1.9
1.2
57
57
1.7
1.1
58
58
1.6
1.1
59
59
1.6
1.1
60
60
1.5
1.0
61
Six
61
1.4
0.9
62
62
1.4
0.9
63
63
1.3
0.9
64
64
1.2
0.7
65
65
1.1
0.7
66
66
1.0
0.7
67
67
0.9
0.7
68
68
0.8
0.7
69
69
0.8
0.6
70
70
0.8
0.5
71
71
0.7
0.5
72
72
0.6
QBs
RBs
Key
WRs
TEs

For your viewing pleasure here's a table of how many players were selected in each draft by round.

+0 League
Round
+1 League
QBs
RBs
WRs
TEs
QBs
RBs
WRs
TEs
2
6
4
0
One
1
6
4
1
1
4
5
2
Two
1
3
7
1
2
4
5
1
Three
1
4
5
2
2
2
7
1
Four
2
3
6
1
2
3
5
2
Five
3
2
4
3
1
3
4
3
Six
2
3
6
1

CONCLUSIONS AND GENERAL MEANDERING THOUGHTS

  • If the running back insanity bothers you, adding +1 PPR won't change much. In fact, the only real change I notice is that this system slightly devalues each quarterback by about one round. Value of a player is based on how he scores in relation to the other players at his position. Sure, we're increasing the scoring of the #1 wide receiver, but we're increasing the scoring of the #36 wide receiver too. The overall affect isn't as dramatic as most perceive it to be.


  • If you want to impact some serious change in your league, consider changing the lineup requirements. Requiring only one running back instead of two would be my first suggestion. That being said I would never do it. I like that fact that running backs are scarce. I feel like I have a decided advantage over the rest of the members in my league with regard to information around the NFL. Further, I understand my scoring system well and know how it impacts values of each position.


  • If you're league is using a flex position a lot of what I'm saying can be thrown out the window. Lumping the positions together and recalculating from a combined baseline to find value changes things. In a +1 PPR League RB15 is approximately equivalent to WR15. After that point the wide receivers are more valuable. However, if you're still starting two running backs along with a flex position they'll still be flying off the board in round one.


  • The numbers above come from season ending statistics. It's not too difficult to predict how the points will be spread out amongst the positions, but near impossible to guess which players will fit into which slots. I feel the running backs are far more predictable than the wide receivers. It's no trick to find value at the wide receiver position late in your draft regardless of scoring systems. Running backs? Not so much. I always chuckle inside at almost every running back drafted after the seventh round. This is the reasoning that will force me into taking my running backs early and often.


  • PPR leagues are becoming more popular. Back in 2001 when I first examined this topic the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) was just preparing for its inaugural year. The WCOFF was one of my main reasons for examining the topic because that league utilizes the +1 PPR. Now the WCOFF is an established institution. I posted a poll in on the Footballguys message board that received 223 votes. 161 of the responses (72%) voted that they utilize some sort of PPR system in their league. I'm starting to think that PPR is becoming the standard.
Contact Us  | Login / Signup

©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved.