Preseason Roundtable #1

Maurile Tremblay: There are a few teams for which the distribution of carries by the running backs is particularly hard to predict. Which teams do you think are most likely to end up in a running-back-by-committee situation?

Marc Levin: I think the teams where the RB1 and RB2 are most likely to finish fairly close in value are Tennessee, Dallas, Green Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, New Orleans, and San Francisco. In some cases, it will be a true running-back-by-committee, where the RBs will rotate during the course of a game. In other cases, there might be a featured runner in any given game, but his identity may change from week to week.

Maurile Tremblay: You didn't list Indy. Does that mean you think Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai will not rotate?

Marc Levin: Right. I am banking on Addai making enough of an impact early in the year that, even if it starts out as a committee situation in the first few weeks, Addai will be the main man for the majority of the season.

Will Grant: Indy is one of a few teams where I think you're going to see a rookie split time with a veteran in some fashion - along with the Saints, Patriots, and Panthers. If I had to guess, I'd say that Addai and Rhodes will split carries somewhat evenly for the Colts. On the other hand, I like Reggie Bush to get more touches than Deuce McAllister in New Orleans, and Laurence Maroney to get more touches than Corey Dillon in New England. So I think we'll see a few rookie running backs having a big impact this year. In Carolina, it's kind of a toss-up because you never know how long DeShaun Foster will remain healthy. Carolina would love to make DeAngelo Williams their guy and call it a day, but I think that's more likely to happen in 2007 than in 2006.

Jeff Pasquino: I agree with Will that several rookies will make a big impact this year. In particular, I think both Laurence Maroney and DeAngelo Williams could end up winning the starting jobs in New England and Carolina outright. Of the two, I like Williams more because Carolina seems to favor the run a lot more than the Patriots do with Tom Brady.

Maurile Tremblay: I like the Carolina running game as well, but every indication I've seen is that DeShaun Foster will be the starter heading into the season. There's always a question of whether he'll remain healthy, but as long as he does, I think the job is his. Even if Williams outplays Foster early in the season (and that will not be an easy task, as Foster is a talented runner when he is healthy), that doesn't mean he'll be given the starting job. If last year is any indication, the starting RB in Carolina will remain the starter as long as he is healthy, even if the backup is better. Last year, Foster outperformed Davis all season long on the limited carries he got, but Davis kept getting the majority of the work until he was injured.

Jeff Pasquino: I still like DeAngelo Williams. There are going to be 500 carries in Carolina. Someone will have 300 and someone will have 200. My money is on Williams to have more than Foster by the end of the year, even if the unlikely happens and Foster doesn't get hurt.

Marc Levin: I'm not sure that is correct, Jeff. They have not had 500 carries in Carolina since 2003, Fox's second year. Fox's teams in Carolina have averaged 470 rush attempts per year. He realizes he needs a balanced offensive attack and a solid defense to get to the Championship Games in January - although, of course, he did go to the Super Bowl with over 500 carries in 2003!! But even if the team as a whole has over 500 rush attempts in 2006, about 100 of those will likely be spread among the QB, WRs, and other RBs besides Foster and Williams. (Hoover and Goings, for example, will each get some carries.) That leaves probably around 375-400 carries to divvy between Foster and Williams. As long as Foster stays healthy, the distribution is likely to be around 275 for Foster and 125 for Williams, in my opinion.

Jeff Pasquino: Okay, I'll give you that. I see the team approaching 500 carries, with the top two backs getting around 400 carries between them. But I still like Williams to get the majority of those 400 carries. Foster has never really lived up to his talent, and he is an injury waiting to happen.

Marc Levin: I agree that Foster is injury-prone. If you get Foster, I would recommend taking Williams as a handcuff.

Maurile Tremblay: How do you guys see the situations in Dallas and Green Bay shaking out?

Will Grant: I think both teams will end up looking like RBBC situations based on the final numbers at year end, but in any given week you'll see one guy get the bulk of the work. In Dallas, Julius Jones will be featured as long as he's healthy, but odds are he'll be banged up at some point and Marion Barber III will take over in relief. Same thing goes for Ahman Green and Samkon Gado, respectively, in Green Bay.

Jeff Pasquino: I think Dallas wants to have a featured back. In 2004, Julius Jones had at least twenty carries in each of the last seven games. He had eight games of at least 20 carries last year; and when he couldn't go, the Cowboys gave more than twenty carries to another running back in an additional four games (including two games featuring Marion Barber). So I agree with Will that Parcells wants to have a feature back. The question is whether Julius Jones will stay healthy enough to fill that role all season, or if Marion Barber will be called upon to take over at some point.

Maurile Tremblay: Do you think Ahman Green will be effective if he is healthy? He was pretty bad last year before he got hurt. Sometimes older RBs tend to lose it all at once instead of gradually. Is that what happened with Ahman Green last year, or is it premature to write him off at this point?

Marc Levin: If Green is healthy, I like him a lot in PPR leagues. While Gado is the seemingly obvious choice near the goal line, the Packers don't seem to use their RBs as much as other teams in the red zone, and Green has, in the past, been pretty good down there. I agree that it is an RBBC situation, but a healthy Green has an incredible history of busting off long runs - he certainly was best with more than 300 carries, but if he is healthy enough to get 225-250 carries and 40 receptions, he is probably the better fantasy choice.

Maurile Tremblay: What about in Chicago? Thomas Jones has played well for the Bears in each of the past two seasons, but Cedric Benson is probably the team's future at RB. How will things play out there?

Will Grant: Until Benson learns to block on passing downs, or they figure out how to get Grossman and Griese to wear a suit of armor and still throw the ball, Jones is going to see the field. Benson can run with the first team all he wants... if he can't block, he won't play every down. Now his sprained shoulder suffered in last Friday's practice is an additional complication. It looks like he will miss at least the first couple preseason games, which won't help his case to open the season as the starter.

Marc Levin: I don't think Chicago will end up in a RBBC situation. Either Jones or Benson will establish himself as the workhorse.

Maurile Tremblay: I can't see them not using Cedric Benson this year, and I also can't see them not using Thomas Jones. If both of those guys are healthy, I think they'll each get at least 10-15 touches a game. Otherwise -- which one rides the pine?

Jeff Pasquino: Before the injury this was a tough call. It would be hard to see Thomas Jones benched after his successful 2005, but he has had a touch-and-go offseason with both contract and now health issues. The job was Benson's to lose on Day 1 of camp, but now the arm/shoulder injury throws a big wrench in the mix. Health may determine the starter, but it does seem that Lovie Smith does prefer to ride one back vs. two. Chicago gives the number one RB 20+ carries more often than not. Last year the Bears' number one RB had 20+ carries in 11 games, up from nine in 2004. Contrast this to Denver, where 2005 saw this happen just six times, down from 10 games in 2004.

Maurile Tremblay: Speaking of Denver, does anybody want to try to untangle that situation?

Will Grant: Shanny likes to hold Tatum Bell to around 20 touches or so per game. In his mind, this gives Tatum the best chance to break away a long gain. Unless Tatum shows that he can carry the ball more than that, expect RBBC in Denver again this season, and it may be a three-headed monster with Tatum Bell, Mike Bell, and Ron Dayne all getting a share of the action.

Maurile Tremblay: I think Tatum Bell is probably the most talented RB on the roster. But so far we've seen Ron Dayne, and more recently Mike Bell, running with the first team in training camp. As long as that's the case, I would not spend a high pick on Tatum Bell. This one probably will be RBBC. I definitely see Tatum Bell having a role, even if it's only 10-15 touches a game. But I think either Dayne or Mike Bell will probably get most of the work in the second half when the Broncos are trying to protect a lead by sustaining drives. Unfortunately, it may be difficult to predict their relative workloads from week to week. Mike Bell could get most of the work one week, and then Tatum Bell could get you some long TD runs the next week. The situation could give fantasy owners headaches, but there's also some fantastic potential here for people who guess right - particularly if Mike Bell remains a low-round fantasy pick. Although if he keeps working with the first team throughout the preseason, we'll probably see his average draft position skyrocket.

Any quick comments on Minnesota, Atlanta, or San Francisco?

Will Grant: In Minnesota, it looks like Chester Taylor will get the majority of the work. In Atlanta, Warrick Dunn should get the majority of the work, but will probably see less production this season than he has in the last two. San Francisco . . . this RB combo scares me, and I would recommend avoiding it unless you're really desperate for a running back.

QBs Changing Teams

Maurile Tremblay: Several established starters at QB will be changing teams this year: Daunte Culpepper to Miami, Drew Brees to New Orleans, Aaron Brooks to Oakland, and Steve McNair to Baltimore.

Which guys do you see as the most likely to succeed, and which do you see as the most likely to struggle? Every move seems to be an upgrade at QB for the new team. Do you bump up these teams' receivers because of that?

Jason Wood: From an NFL perspective, I believe Steve McNair will have the most success. The Ravens have truly been a solid QB short of title contention the last few years; and while he steps into a new situation, he has Derrick Mason on board and the team will run the ball a ton. He just has to convert first downs and manage the game.

From a fantasy perspective, perhaps I'm a glutton for punishment but my vote goes to Aaron Brooks. Before last season, he was consistently a top-10 fantasy QB and goes to a team with a ton of weapons. The Raiders defense, much like the Saints for many years, should be awful thus ensuring that Brooks gets lots of garbage time production. If he's healthy, and Randy Moss is back to form, I can't see how Brooks doesn't provide top-10 production, for a fraction of the cost.

The dark horse here is Daunte Culpepper. If he really is back to start the season, he could be extremely valuable. But he tore not one, not two, but three knee ligaments. I just don't know how he'll be 100% in September no matter what the media and coaching staff say.

The guy I'm avoiding like the plague is Drew Brees. A bum shoulder would be reason enough, but he's going to a new team, I have questions about Sean Payton and Doug Marrone, his receiving corps is suspect especially with Joe Horn coming off a bad year and pushing 34 years old, he has no one close to Antonio Gates anymore to make him look good in the red zone. Don't touch Brees as a top 15 QB in any way, shape or form.

Marc Levin: I wish I could add much more, but I don't think it is possible for me to agree more with Jason.

I love Brooks this year, regardless of the negativity coming out of Oakland about him having to fight for a starting gig. For the exact same reasons that Jason gave.

I am more optimistic, however, on Culpepper -- not that he will start the season, but that he will be very valuable from week 7 or so on. I think the Dolphins will be smart with their investment, they will sit him for the first month of the season, they will return him to the field in week 5 against Detroit at home, and they will check him out in the bye week (week 6). I think week 7 or 8 forward, he will be huge and owners should look out for teams with Culpepper to be making a big run late in the fantasy season.

I am in full agreement on McNair being an NFL smash - probably a strong candidate for NFL comeback player of the year, actually - but not as great a fantasy success. I think he will be fine as a backup QB for fantasy purposes, but will have too many of those 200-250 yard, 1 or 2 TD games that simply won't help you much. But he will have a low interception rate, and he will make the big play for Baltimore and will lead them in comeback efforts better than any QB in the past. I foresee either a division title or a wild card berth for Baltimore this year, just because of the addition of McNair.

Shawn Culcasi: The one thing that I can't get out of my head regarding Drew Brees is the labrum injury and the effects it had a few years back on Rich Gannon. At 27 Brees certainly has age on his side, as Gannon was 38 when he was injured (and subsequently forced out of the game), but the Saints are putting a lot of stock into a bum shoulder.

As Wood stated, Steve McNair appears to be the QB who's in line for the most NFL success. With an established running game and being reunited with Derrick Mason, McNair's ability to manage a game should once again make Baltimore a team to watch.

Chambers with Culpepper? Moss with Brooks? The player who I think may benefit the most here is Todd Heap. The tight end position over the last nine years in Tennessee has averaged 90-885-5 and McNair won't have to look far to hook up with one of the top pass catching tight ends in the game.

Maurile Tremblay: Like I said, I think every one of these moves benefits the new team that each QB is going to.

McNair in Baltimore appears to be the biggest upgrade. Brian Billick, I think, has been itching to put the ball in the air since he left Minnesota for Baltimore . . . but he hasn't had the offensive weapons to do it. After importing the McNair-Mason duo from Tennessee (albeit in stages), I think he does. Expect McNair to exploit any defenses that overplay the run.

Meanwhile, I think Brees may see the biggest drop-off in production, in part because of his torn labrum, and in part because he no longer has Tomlinson and Gates to bail him out of trouble. To be sure, Reggie Bush is every bit as talented receiver as Tomlinson is, but he probably won't be the rushing threat that Tomlinson is, so other teams will not have to devote as much attention to stopping the run (thus opening up the passing lanes).

Jeff Pasquino: I guess I'm going to be the one to disagree on Brees. He's always put up solid numbers. Yes, he is coming off of a torn labrum, but for me that's about the only negative that I can find for him. He loses Tomlinson and Gates, but his wide receivers are definitely an improvement with Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth over Eric Parker and Keenan McCardell. The Saints give Brees not just one but two good pass-catching running backs with Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. I won't dare compare Gates and Zach Hilton, but Hilton as the fifth option and an adequate TE receiver doesn't exactly represent a bad target across the middle.

Sean Payton is going to find ways to utilize all the talent here, and the central figure in distributing the ball in Drew Brees. He has thrown 51 touchdowns over the last two seasons, and I think conservatively he will get 20 again this year. Of course he has to be in shape and recovered, but every single report that I've heard has him ready to go - including throwing the ball 60+ yards as camp opens.

As for who is most likely to struggle, I actually think it is McNair. I like the move to Baltimore, but he has the shortest time of them all to learn the new playbook and get acclimated to his new team. The Ravens opened camp on a Friday, unusual for HC Billick who favors a Monday start to camp, so that McNair can have three extra days to work on the offense. With his past injury history and its effect on his practice time, McNair has to stay healthy and get as many reps as he can to get used to the Ravens' offense. Reuniting with Derrick Mason helps, but timing with Mark Clayton and Todd Heap has to be a concern.

Camp Injuries

Maurile Tremblay: Two major news items from the first few days of training camp are the injury to Browns center LeCharles Bentley, and the retirement of Chiefs LT Willie Roaf. How does Bentley's injury affect the rest of the Browns' offense? How much do you drop Reuben Droughns in your rankings, if at all? Same question for the Chiefs. Is this a huge blow to their offense, or will they not miss a beat?

Marc Levin: I think people drastically underestimate the importance of offensive lineman to the entire offense. This is a blow to both squads - and both runners. Bentley and Roaf were not only Pro Bowl quality players, but leaders on the line. Without that in-game leadership, the offensive line's cohesion takes a hit. It is no less an impact on the offense than the impact to the defense if either team lost a starting CB or DL. Luckily, both teams have all of training camp and preseason to overcome the loss, so I am not going to significantly downgrade either running back for now.

Jeff Pasquino: The loss of Roaf in KC is a hit to Tony Gonzalez. Last year he was forced to block more and not run as many routes when Roaf was out, and his numbers dropped accordingly. That could easily happen again this year. On the other hand, Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker stand to benefit of increased targets for Trent Green, who always finds a way to throw for 4,000 yards.

Jason Wood: I really think this Roaf thing is a non-issue. He's a guy that's never liked camp, and with the NFL's new policy of fining players that hold out, I think this is simply his way of sitting out camp. The team is holding onto his papers; he's not pressing them to file them; heck, he hasn't even had a formal press conference announcing his retirement. He'll suit up for KC this year. Don't get too worked up about this.

As to Bentley, that's an entirely different situation. The Browns targeted Bentley and Schaffer as keys to upgrading their O-line. Once Bentley was on board they let Jeff Faine go; who was arguably their best lineman the year before. Now with Bob Hallen's retirement, the team is looking at Rob Smith at center. YIKES. That's going to be a big blow, particularly for Reuben Droughns who already has problems scoring touchdowns.

Shawn Culcasi: The Chiefs will fill the sting of losing Willie Roaf. If you compare the ten games they played with Roaf last year to the six games they played without him, it is evident that his absence made a difference. With Roaf, they were 7-3 and averaged 27.4 points per game. Without Roaf, they were 3-3 and averaged 23.2 points per game. The drop-off in rushing (from 4.6 yards per rush to 4.55 yards per rush) was not as great as the drop-off in passing (from 9.2 yards per attempt to 6.6 yards per attempt). So Roaf's retirement could end up hurting Trent Green more than it hurts Larry Johnson.

Tight End Philosophy

Maurile Tremblay: There seem to be more worthwhile tight ends now than there were a few years ago. How does this affect your draft strategy at that position? Does it still make sense to grab a stud early - for example, Gates in the third round? Or do you wait several rounds knowing that you can still get a very good (Witten, Crumpler or so) TE several full rounds later?

Comparing VBD values with average draft position seems to suggest that TEs are undervalued in general. Do you agree with this, and if so, do you see a way to exploit it?

Marc Levin: If you do not spend a high pick on Gates (maybe on Gonzo if you are a believer that he can come back with Edwards as head coach), don't spend a high pick on a TE. There are nine TEs who should see a tremendous amount of opportunity this year, and after that there is virtually no advantage to taking a TE until every other team has selected one. Those nine TEs are: Gates, Gonzo, Heap, Shockey, McMichael, Crumpler, Cooley, Witten, and, bringing up the rear, LJ Smith.

After that, we start seeing starting TEs being selected who have virtually no NFL experience or, like Heath Miller, whose numbers are extraordinarily TD driven - habitually a poor kind of fantasy TE for consistency.

Of the list above, unless you can get the guy you love from the top five for value, I say wait until that last 6-9 TEs are being selected and look to jump on LJ Smith; the guy had over 100 targets in 2005. A few more TDs than the three he had last year (a year without a healthy McNabb), and we would be talking about him as a top five TE. Nothing about his situation has deteriorated and, in fact, it has become better.

I love LJ Smith's value, and I fully expect him to break into the top five TEs this year. I could see him topping or matching last year and bumping his TDs: 65 catches, 700 yards, and 5-7 TDs are possible, which would vault him into the top five. If you are in a point-per-reception league, look for TEs with high target and catch numbers. That means weekly fantasy points for your team.

If you don't take a top five guy, and don't want to go for LJ in the next tier, then you should wait until the late rounds and grab two TEs from your sleeper list. I like Ben Watson, Ben Troupe, Jerramy Stevens, Dallas Clark, and, even later, Alex Smith or Zach Hilton. It is better to rely on a pairing of those two in the late draft than to jump on a rookie like Vernon Davis or a loose cannon like Kellen Winslow II just to have one of the top twelve ranked TEs.

Ben Watson is an interesting story - we are high on him here at Footballguys.com, and collectively, we have a decent eye over the years for TEs to grab late, but the rest of the world is still sleeping. He's the TE13 on our unified ADP list. Watch for the buzz on Watson to explode in preseason and he won't be a sleeper anymore; he could easily become a 10th TE to add to the list I made above.

Oh, by the way, it makes lot of sense to grab Gates in the third. Just look at his VBD numbers and expected production. But, it does not make anywhere near as much sense to grab the second, third or fourth TE in your draft.

Jason Wood: Gates won't be the top fantasy tight end this year, so I'm confident that people will overpay for him in virtually every draft (since he'll be drafted as the top TE in most leagues). With that in mind, I think this is the year to target either Todd Heap or Jeremy Shockey, my two choices to finish at the top spot.

Beyond those guys, I have questions about all the other "can't miss" guys. Jason Witten now has to contend with the best scoring WR in the league; Terrell Owens. Tony Gonzalez' skills have started their inevitable downturn and, if Willie Roaf really has retired, he's going to have to block a lot more. Alge Crumpler's shoulder would keep me at bay.

Bottom line is you pass on Gates, target Heap or Shockey, and if you don't get them, I would comfortably wait until the later rounds and grab some combination of Winslow, Troupe, Watson, etc.

Sigmund Bloom: I'm one of the people who advocate taking Gates in the third round in most leagues, or even in the late 2nd in point-per-reception, TE-required leagues. There is no reason to think that the pecking order in the SD passing offense is going to change at all this season. The gap between Gates and the rest of the pack in both talent and opportunity is greater than the gap between Peyton Manning and the rest of the QB pack, and no one bats an eye at Peyton going in the 2nd, or even late first. I do not understand this inconsistency. No other TE is so clearly the number one weapon in his team's passing attack as Gates is, and no one TE is more able to live up to that billing.

If you don't get Gates, I think there are two strategies to go with:

Take whichever TE from the second tier falls the farthest - most likely LJ Smith, Chris Cooley, or Randy McMichael. I would guess that one of these guys will be available in the 7th or 8th.
Take multiple breakout TE candidates. This would include Ben Watson (my favorite), Heath Miller, Kellen Winslow, Ben Troupe, Zach Hilton, Vernon Davis, and Alex Smith. You can get two of these guys and only have to burn two double-digit-round picks in most leagues. I also advocate getting one of these guys no matter what because they will be excellent trade bait (or make your more reliable TE trade bait) if they do break out.

TEs are undervalued in general, and I think the best way to exploit this is taking Gates plus a breakout candidate later on. Decrease the supply of viable TEs and lock in that advantage. If the league awards a point for receptions and allows TE at a flex position (especially with a TE premium), I would advocate taking 3 of the top 15 TEs. I emphasize that strategy even more in larger leagues. People generally underestimate the value of TEs in large leagues because they do not understand how scarce the producers are at the position. Dependable TEs can carry huge trade value in 16 team leagues. I like hoarding them when I can.

Shawn Culcasi: Regarding Jason's statement that Gates won't be the top fantasy tight end this year, I'm not sure that this is the point in him being so highly sought after. I bring up the LT reference and his spot as the #1 overall selection (although that is also debatable). Tomlinson is not likely to finish as the #1 running back this year, but his downside appears limited. Similarly, Antonio Gates appears to be the safest bet to finish in the top three among tight ends even with a new quarterback.

That being said, I really like Todd Heap's value this year and have targeted him when he falls to a palatable position, especially in point-per-reception leagues. Waiting until rounds 10-11 to address your tight end situation is always an option because there will be quality available, but I don't see them having near the upside of Gates, Heap and possibly Shockey.

Marc Levin: Echoing Cracker, even if Gates is not likely to finish as the number one fantasy tight end, doesn't he at least have a better chance than any other TE does?

Under our standard scoring system of 4 points per passing TD, Peyton Manning has never been the #1 fantasy QB, but we do not bat an eye at him being drafted a few rounds before any other QB. Why? Because he has the BEST SHOT of any QB of being top three every year.

That's why Gates is worth so much - not because he will definitely be the #1 TE, but because he is so likely to be among the top few fantasy TEs. All the other candidates, including Heap, Gonzo and Shockey, have greater questions about their potential to be number one this year than Gates does.

In my opinion, Gonzo dominated the TE landscape for years, and now Gates is going to be the dominant fantasy TE, with some others coming at him each year -- but Gates will be the player consistently at the top of the end-of-year stats.

I'm not disagreeing that a third round pick is a high price to pay, but I am also not agreeing that spending a pick a round or two later on Heap or Shockey makes more sense.

Plus, while their ADPs may say different, with TEs, it is almost always a matter of runs - someone will crack the seal on tight ends by picking Gates in the third round and, within 12-15 picks, at least two of Gonzo, Shockey and Heap will be gone and, within 5 more picks, the last one will be gone. In other words, it is unlikely that you can pick up more than a round and a half if you pass on Gates and want to have one of the other top four TEs; and if you pass on Gates at the end of the third, you could potentially see all the top four TEs gone before you pick again.

Jason Wood: I think everyone is summarily underestimating the debacle that will be the San Diego Chargers this year. Rivers may be good someday, but I don't see him being good this year.

Marc and Cracker certainly bring up a valid counterargument, but given the depth at TE this year, I simply can't stomach drafting someone as the first player at his position if I don't believe he'll be the top player at that position.

Regarding Manning: (a) I never draft him; and (b) If I did take him as the first QB off the board, it would be because I expect him to finish as QB1.

In Gates' case, plenty of folks are going to expect him to finish TE1 and, thus, all I'm really saying is I can't see rostering him in nearly any situation because I won't be willing to pay his current ADP.

Lastly, VBD for TEs is misleading because of their average points production. There's too much randomness week to week. Mark Campbell could have one catch for a TD and either match or exceed your high fantasy TE in a given week.

David Yudkin: I don't often vehemently disagree with Jason, but in this case we are farther apart than the Patriots are with Deion Branch.

Jason is almost describing Rivers as a green, low-level rookie when in fact he was a highly touted blue chip QB prospect that has had two years to learn. Non-rookie QBs with limited experience have actually not fared poorly at all in recent years. (See my face-off on Rivers for more details.)

The other thing to remember is that many times inexperienced QBs take over horrendously bad offenses. The Chargers, on the other hand, ranked top five in points scored in each of the past two years.

Looking back to last season, if Gates had a twenty percent reduction in his fantasy production, he still would have ranked as the #1 overall TE. Had Gates not missed the first game of the season, he may have outscored the #2 TE by thirty percent.

The other question is what to expect from the Chargers this year with first-time starter Rivers. And I'd say that the Chargers' QB position is actually more stable than that of a lot of teams. A quarter of the league this year has its starting quarterback trying to return from injury. Many other teams are dealing with new coaches, new offensive systems, or substantially new personnel. The Chargers, meanwhile, will run the same offense they've run since Rivers was drafted two years ago, and they return a remarkable 21 of 22 starters from last season (with Drew Brees being the only starter to leave).

While I don't think Gates will match his totals from the past few years, I do see him getting enough to rank as the number one TE.

Shawn Culcasi: I believe it still makes sense to draft Gates in the third round, although I'd stretch that to include Shockey and Heap by round six. There's a myth that's been floating around for some time that, if you bypass drafting one of the upper echelon tight ends early in the draft, you can easily make up for the production with a player drafted a full 5-6 rounds later.

Ben Watson (82.4 projected fantasy points, 11.01 ADP) is the hot topic this year, along with LJ Smith (77.6, 9.07) and Kellen Winslow (74.4, 9.06). Compared to Shockey (117.9, 4.12) and Heap (112.1, 6.02) we're looking at about a 30% drop in production (30-40 FP).

A quick glance at wide receivers shows a drop of approximately 20% over the same ADP range (comparing Deion Branch versus Jerry Porter).

Assuming the ADPs are correct, which duo would you rather have? Heap/Porter or Branch/LJ Smith? I believe the popular selection here would be Branch and Smith, leaving 5% production on the board.

Will Grant: I seem to be pretty close to everyone else here with their thinking.

Gates or Shockey would be worth a high draft pick... but I'm still not going to pay a third-rounder for either of them unless it's a late third rounder. If I'm drafting at the top of round three, I'd rather take the best available RB/WR and go with 'second tier' TE later on.

I think there are plenty of quality TEs to be had in the 10-12 range, depending on when you draft and how the draft is flowing.

Maurile Tremblay: My view on this is that I think Gates anywhere in the third round is nice value. He's almost certain to get 800 yards and a bunch of TDs if he stays healthy, and 1000 yards isn't out of the question. I don't have nearly the same comfort level with anybody else.

Part of what I'm getting when I draft Gates is the benefit of not having to draft a TE2 at all. If Gates is injured, I'll scramble for a TE. But if he's not injured, he's starting 16 games for me, so I really don't need a backup. (I'll either use a waiver wire guy or leave the position blank during Gates' bye week.) So that gives me an extra shot at a sleeper QB, RB, or WR late in the draft.

If I don't draft Gates in the third, I am looking at Ben Watson or Jerramy Stevens late in the draft. I'm comfortable with either of those guys, and both are going pretty late. I've also seen Randy McMichael fall pretty low in a few drafts. If he slides, I'd take him as well.

But I will generally not spend a fourth-through-eighth round pick on a tight end. If I can't get Gates, I don't think the value of Witten/Heap/Shockey/Gonzalez/Crumpler over Stevens/Watson is great enough to justify the several-round difference in their ADPs.

Shawn Culcasi: I'll add a note on Tony Gonzalez A hot topic in Kansas City is the retirement of Willie Roaf and the effects it will have on Tony Gonzalez (as well as Larry Johnson). It was highly speculated a year ago that when Roaf left the lineup, Gonzalez was forced to stay in and help block at the line of scrimmage, decreasing his opportunities as a receiver. The interior of the Chiefs offensive line remains intact entering 2006 with Brian Waters, Casey Weigmann and Will Shields. Jordan Black should slide over to left tackle, leaving right tackle as a position in flux. John Welbourn started nine games last year but also retired, leaving the job to Kyle Turley and/or Kevin Sampson.

The Black/Sampson combo doesn't look promising for Gonzalez as he was unproductive during the only game in which it started, catching two balls on three targets in week four. In general, with Willie Roaf out of the lineup (6 games), Gonzalez posted 55 targets with 34 receptions and 327 yards. His YPC and TDs were cut dramatically compared to his career averages, but his overall numbers during those six games were very respectable.

On the surface it appears that Tony Gonzalez should not be affected much by the loss of Willie Roaf, although I guess we should see how the right tackle situation washes out before passing too much judgment.

Marc Levin: There is one thing to consider with these upper-tier TEs. In a twelve-team league, Gates is a nice value in the mid-to-late third round. But keep in mind that spending a third-round pick on a tight end means giving up another valuable starting spot. The drop from the middle of the third round to the middle of the fourth round can be pretty severe. Loads of valuable starting RB2s, and the remaining valuable starting WR1s, will come off the board then.

Maurile Tremblay: Yes, this is the quandary of drafting a top-tier TE in the third or fourth round. You can still get a quality starting TE a few rounds later, but it's very hard to get a quality starting RB or WR then.

It's a little bit of the same issue with drafting one of the top QBs.

In both cases, I think a lot depends on how much you like any of the semi-sleeper RB candidates who will be available in the middle rounds -- the Frank Gore / Ron Dayne / LenDale White / Thomas Jones types. If you really like one or two of those guys, it makes more sense to grab a top TE and then come back to one of those semi-sleepers. But if you think every RB after Reuben Droughns and Warrick Dunn kind of stink this year, you better load up on RBs early and take your TE (and QB) in the middle/late rounds.

Shawn Culcasi: Exactly. One of the few times that I drafted a QB early was last year with Daunte Culpepper (nice call there). Looking at the team afterward it appeared to be missing something, an early round runner or receiver. You tend to overlook the high end QB and TE when evaluating your team even though their value is apparent during the season.

Marc Levin: Excellent point, Shawn. People tend to overvalue RBs when looking at the strength of a team during the preseason, which is understandable. But, when in-season head to head play begins, those topnotch TEs and QBs that live up to their early draft picks certainly give their owners an advantage.

Jeff Pasquino: My tight end philosophy is a bit different here. I am looking solely at opportunity and supporting cast. I want a TE that is going to be the first or second target in the offense, and I want to avoid a TE that has had a surrounding personnel change that will adversely impact his targets. This is why I have a guy like Chris Cooley so low on my rankings. I also think Terrell Owens going to Dallas hurts Witten enough to have him slip down my list.

I'm also opposed to grabbing Jason's top two candidates this year in Shockey and Heap. Both have good wide receivers and decent receivers out of the backfield, and both also tend to get nicked early and have to play through injuries. I expect them to have similar seasons to 2005, but I think there are bigger downside risks to where you would have to grab these two.

I like most of Marc's remaining list of Gonzalez, Gates, McMichael, Crumpler, and especially LJ Smith. Taking one of the last three here as your starting TE for 2006 will likely get you a 60-75 catch, 700 yard receiver that can get you six TDs or more. Given that you can get that kind of production so much further down the draft than the Gateses and Heaps of the world, that would be my overall strategy.

As for Gates, I agree that he is the most likely TE on this list to finish at the top of the rankings. Rivers is not a typical rookie: he has had two years of camps and practice, and a 10-15 yard pass over the middle to Gates doesn't seem like much of a challenge for an NFL quarterback.

Maurile Tremblay: Side issue: I still see most fantasy owners drafting two tight ends instead of one. What are the arguments in support of this strategy? In traditional leagues, I always draft only one since the TEs available late in the draft when I would draft a backup tend to be no better (maybe 0.5 ppg better) than the TEs who will be available on waivers once the season starts.

Marc Levin: I think it makes a TON of sense to backup an early draft pick on TE with a suitable sleeper. Grabbing Clark, Stevens, or Troupe behind a high pick of Gates, Gonzo, Shockey, or Heap just makes sense; you vacated a RB/WR position when you spent an early pick on one of those guys, so it is almost stupid strategy not to have a reliable backup in case of injury and to maintain your "edge" in bye weeks. Going from a top-3 TE to a waiver-wire TE midseason can be death to a fantasy team.

Sigmund Bloom: Drafting two TEs has become a requirement because the number of producers at the position has grown to the 15-20 range. In the past, the drop-off has come earlier in the rankings and you really could get a TE on waivers for your bye week that would be just as good as the TE you could have drafted in the late rounds as your TE2. That is not true this year, as the late round TE2 picks contain many breakout candidates that could end up being viable starters.

One Guy To Watch During Preseason

Maurile Tremblay: Who is the one player you'd especially want to watch in this year's training camp and preseason to see how he looks?

For me, it is probably Matt Jones or Kellen Winslow II. It's cheating to list two, so I'll go with Jones.

I think the Jaguars' WRs as a group should get somewhere around 190-200 receptions this year, with the top guy getting 65-70 reception. It looks to me like Matt Jones is in a great position to be the WR1 based on his natural talent and the rapport he seemed to be developing with Leftwich in Leftwich's last few games last year. But Jones still has an awful lot to prove before he can be considered a legitimate WR1 in the NFL. If he plays well in training camp and the preseason, I'll probably target him in every draft I participate in. If he doesn't look like he's making tremendous progress this preseason, obviously I'll significantly revise my plan.

Which guy will you follow particularly closely?

Marc Levin: I have a bunch of guys I have my eye on, but if I had to pick just one I'd go with Reggie Bush. I love Bush and have vowed to put him on as many team as possible, even if it means sacrificing my RB2 spot for a while. In addition to Bush, my list of guys I'll particularly be keeping my eye on includes Daunte Culpepper and Ronnie Brown, the Denver running backs, Javon Walker, Matt Jones, and Ben Watson.

Jason Wood: I wrote a Keys to Training Camp series for the site and listed five or six situations that I think everyone should be watching on each team. So it's all but impossible for me to pick one player as THE situation I want to monitor.

Certainly the RB battles are always critical. Guys like Samkon Gado, Joe Addai, LenDale White, Cedric Benson to name a few could all offer tremendous value if they, in fact, win the starting jobs exclusively.

Shawn Culcasi: Daunte Culpepper is a player that I will be watching keenly during the preseason. Not only is his health an issue, but there's still a little problem of producing without Randy Moss. Is Culpepper sans Moss the player that we saw last year prior to his season-ending injury, or is he one of only a small handful of quarterbacks who can challenge Peyton Manning as the leagues top dog?

The Miami Dolphins seem to be putting together an impressive offense with much of their potential success riding on Culpepper's health. In order for Chris Chambers to join the ranks of the elite at wide receiver he will need Culpepper behind center. Chambers posted stellar numbers a year ago with a less than ideal QB situation, but I don't think it'd be realistic to expect consistent play with Joey Harrington making the calls. If Ronnie Brown is going to live up to or exceed our expectations of him, he will almost certainly need steady play from the passing game.

With a healthy Daunte Culpepper, Miami's offense has the opportunity to be this year's breakout unit, explosive if nothing else. Without Culpepper, we may be looking at South Detroit.

Jeff Pasquino: I'll likely be watching DeAngelo Williams and how he fits into the Carolina offense. I really think that he has a better than 50% chance of winning the Panthers' starting job at tailback right out of the gate. He will certainly get plenty of reps in August and I would not be surprised to see him playing early with the first team. HC Fox already knows what he has in Foster, so gauging Williams' transition to the NFL will be huge.

(I have plenty of others to watch, but like MT said, more than one is cheating).

Maurile Tremblay: That will do it for now. Thanks a ton for participating in the first Roundtable feature of the season, guys. We'll see you all back here again in a couple weeks.