Maurile Tremblay: Thanks to you all for joining me here for the first regular-season installment of the Fantasy Roundtable. Let's kick things off with a little discussion of the games coming up this weekend. From a fantasy perspective, which games are you guys most interested in watching?

I'm high on Philip Rivers this season, and I'm eager to see how he handles the defensive looks he'll get in the regular season opener. I'm also very interested in seeing the Patriots' offense this year. We'll probably have to wait another week to see the split between Dillon and Maroney, but this week I want to see who is getting the receiving targets. (I'm assuming Branch won't play.) Finally, the Chiefs/Bengals game has the potential to be a shootout, and I want to see if Carson Palmer and Larry Johnson can pick up where they left off last year, playing with a reconstructed knee and a reconstructed offensive line, respectively.

Every game has something to look forward to. But from a fantasy perspective, if you could only pick two or three games to watch this weekend, which would you choose?

Jeff Pasquino: I'm really looking forward the most to the nationally televised games. Thursday night has plenty to offer, and the first game of the season is always special. The "Manning Bowl" of the Giants vs. the Colts will be Sunday's highlight, and I want to see how the RB situation plays out in Indy. Carolina-Atlanta and Dallas-Jacksonville should also be great games, potentially featuring two playoff-bound teams each.

Of course, from a spectacle standpoint, who can't wait to finish the week with two games on Monday night? Lots of Visine needed come Monday morning on the East Coast.....

David Yudkin: I am most interested in seeing how the Branch situation impacts the Patriots both for fantasy production and for public relations fallout. Living in New England, I have been embroiled with several people in heated repartee on what this all means to the team and their season. Some feel that Branch's absence will have little to no impact and the Pats will still be a 12 or 13 win team. Others feel that with Branch they are a borderline playoff team but without him they will fall below .500.

Fantasy-wise, I am eager to see how all this impacts the Pats' offensive numbers. Maroney is rumored to be out this week, so I suspect we will see a heavy dose of Corey Dillon and some decent third down numbers for Kevin Faulk. In the passing game, I suspect we will see no true dominant target. I know the consensus has Watson getting a ton of production with Branch out, and while he may see more than his share of normal targets, the team still needs others to be effective or Watson will be double covered until the Pats can develop some other options. I doubt Gabriel can come in with only a week of practice and play a big role; and in the preseason games Bam Childress looked like their most effective WR, but he has been relegated to the practice squad.

I also think that Brady's numbers could suffer with the team stalling in the red zone and settling for field goal attempts, especially against Buffalo. In my opinion, they'll be happy to get points anytime they have the ball and will let the defense force the action and come up with turnovers.

If the Patriots go out and destroy Buffalo like 38-3, I'm not sure how that will effect the Branch situation. Certainly it will appear that the Patriots didn't need him to win, and quite frankly they shouldn't need Branch to beat the Bills. While we don't know what the arbitrator will rule, I suspect that the court of popular opinion will point to a blowout victory and many fans will say that Branch is just a small cog of a good team. No matter what the results of Week One, I don't see Branch returning to the team anytime soon.

Sigmund Bloom: Philadelphia versus Houston will be an interesting game because there are a lot of unanswered questions for both teams heading into it. Is Correll Buckhalter really back? Can Gary Kubiak make a real QB out of David Carr like he did with Jake Plummer? How will the Wali Lundy-Vernand Morency-Ron Dayne rotation play out? Will the Kubiak offense unlock Andre Johnson's potential?

Dallas versus Jacksonville is another. Is TO going to lift Drew Bledsoe's fantasy prospects as much as everyone expects? How much work will Marion Barber get at RB, and will it start the calls for him to start over Julius Jones? How does the pecking order of targets for Byron Leftwich play out? Who will get the goal line carries for Jacksonville?

And finally, the Monday night game between the Chargers and the Raiders. Is Philip Rivers ready for prime time? Will he affect the production of Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson? Will Aaron Brooks make the Raiders offense high-flying again?

Cecil Lammey: Even without Big Ben, I am still looking forward to my beloved Steelers opening up the season against the Dolphins. The questions I'll be looking for answers to include whether Culpepper can make it through this game unscathed and whether Willie Parker will become a true feature back. I will be waiving my terrible towel all night.

Mark Wimer: As each game horizon approaches, I'll think of new reasons to be excited about what is about to be played out before the nation. I'm excited to see Daunte Culpepper complete a phenomenal comeback from a horrific knee injury. Ditto for Carson Palmer and the Bengals vs. Kansas City.

San Francisco-Arizona has a lot of interesting story lines: can Alex Smith progress as a pro QB? Can Edgerrin James make the over-hyped Cardinals' offensive line look competent? The battle of the Mannings on Sunday night is going to be fun.

The two things I am dreading are, first of all, the moment when my lovely, red-headed Valkyrie wife realizes that there is a Monday night double header and that I'll be up until 2-3 AM ET on Monday night. More seriously, the 11th of September is always a sad day that reminds me of the loss of many of my fellow Americans in the cowardly terrorist mass-murders. Enjoyment of anything on that day is dimmed by constant memories of watching the jumbo-jets smash into the Twin Towers. I'll also reflect on Pat Tillman's decision to enlist in the Army and to go off to war on behalf of his country, rather than make millions of dollars playing NFL football.

Maurile Tremblay: Well said, Mark.

Answered prayers at QB?

Maurile Tremblay: Buffalo, Houston, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, and San Francisco have all suffered from poor quarterbacking in recent years. Is it going to be more of the same in 2006, or will a few of these teams have their QB prayers answered this season?

Let's take them one at a time, starting with Buffalo. Mark, what's your take on Losman this year?

Mark Wimer: I feel that his success is tied to two critical factors: can either Josh Reed or Peerless Price emerge as a legitimate #2 across from Lee Evans? And can Willis McGahee and the OL create a consistently credible threat to run the ball? If there are positive answers to both of those questions, then Losman will have enough targets to throw to (and time to make his throws), and he'll improve as a QB.

Cecil Lammey: I bag on J.P. Losman every chance I get on the air. That being said he sure could turn into a nice QB for the Bills. He's never going to set the world on fire and be the "next Brett Favre" as some appointed him early in his career. But what he can do is hook up with Lee Evans and hand off to McGahee.

Sigmund Bloom: J.P. Losman will have the respect of the team as it looks as if he actually won the QB job instead of being handed it. Too bad the offense is in transition, with a new go-to WR in Lee Evans, and no steady targets among the other WRs and TEs. Losman may improve a lot from last year, but the team likely will not, at least not in W-L category. Losman may bear some of blame, fairly or unfairly, and face a similar situation as the one Kyle Boller faced in Baltimore in 2005 -- taking criticism for the team failing on offense despite his improvement, and being bumped to the bench by a veteran.

David Yudkin: I think the playcalling will be better and the offense will not be as stale and predictable. That should help, as would a bit better output from the defense. I still don't see the Bills passing totals increasing by leaps and bounds, however. They have Evans and essentially a WR2-by-committee with Price, Reed, Davis, and Parrish. Maybe one of them will emerge as an every down player, but on the surface I would not be eager to consider putting Losman in my fantasy lineup unless I had no other options.

Jeff Pasquino: Buffalo should see marked improvement from JP Losman, but he won't be confused with a Pro Bowl quarterback anytime soon.

Maurile Tremblay: What about David Carr in Houston?

Mark Wimer: The main question here is whether the OL will be able to pass block this year. Houston has allowed the most sacks three out of the past four seasons, including leading the league with 68 sacks allowed during 2005. If Carr can spend more time vertical rather than on his back, he has some good targets in Johnson and Moulds.

Jeff Pasquino: Houston will apparently finally move David Carr out from the pocket and under center for every snap, which gives him more of a chance to make plays and not start looking for a safe place to land in two seconds. I think Carr will go back to how he did two years ago (16 TD, 3500+ yards) and show why he got the big check this offseason.

Sigmund Bloom: I was very high on David Carr in the Spring after observing the way that Gary Kubiak took a struggling Jake Plummer and turned him into a quality NFL and fantasy QB. Carr seems to have reverted to his old habits so far, constantly in fear of being sacked and not being able to stay calm enough to look deep downfield. Sadly, I think Carr's run in Houston may be coming to a close soon.

David Yudkin: Even with a new regime, if you can't protect the QB you are looking at disappointing passing totals. Moulds still has some gas in the tank and should be a decent 1-2 punch with Johnson, but if Carr has no time and is hampered trying to pass it could again be a long season. We also don't know if the kiddie RB corps can be as productive as Davis has been. Carr probably is an OK bye week or injury fill-in. But still not QB1 material in most leagues.

Cecil Lammey: David Carr should bounce back this year. It is truly a make-or-break year for Carr under new head coach Gary Kubiak.

Maurile Tremblay: In Detroit, will Jon Kitna be a big upgrade over Joey Harrington?

David Yudkin: Of all the bottom-feeders up for discussion, Kitna is the only one that I see making a splash fantasy-wise. I will refrain from reciting the passing stats for Martz-led teams, but suffice it to say that they are pretty impressive. I happen to think that many people are missing the boat on what could be a potential fantasy goldmine in the Lions' passing attack. Even without the same talent level and OL depth as the Rams, Detroit should still fare much better than they were in recent seasons. The team may not score a lot more touchdowns, but they should be in for more yardage than most places are projecting them.

Sigmund Bloom: Rod Marinelli has changed the tone in Detroit, but this is a team clearly in rebuilding mode. Jon Kitna is not a long term solution, but he will be a solid game manager. Detroit is a great candidate to target someone like Brady Quinn in 2007.

Jeff Pasquino: Detroit may have found the coach they needed in Mike Martz. Kitna (and McCown if needed) will perform fine for them this season.

Mark Wimer: Jon Kitna was replaced in Cincinnati not because he lacked ability, but because Carson Palmer is an elite talent. Back in 2003 Kitna tossed 324/520 for 3594 yards, 26 TDs and 15 interceptions. With Mike Martz calling the plays in Detroit, Kitna has a legitimate shot to come close to or even exceed those numbers during 2006, especially now that the dead wood has been cleared from the WR stable.

Maurile Tremblay: How will Charlie Frye fare in Cleveland this year?

Jeff Pasquino: Charlie Frye has much more to work with this year. There is an interesting parallel in Frye's 2005 stats and Eli Manning's stats from 2004. While I'm not predicting nearly the same results as for Manning last year, Frye has Joe Jurevicius and Kellen Winslow Jr. to throw to, in addition to Braylon Edwards returning ahead of schedule. I like his chances the most of the sophomore QBs this year.

Mark Wimer: Frye has some experience under his belt and a wealth of new targets, but I think he's a year out from being a viable fantasy starter. His passing totals in pre-season (against vanilla defenses with a vanilla offensive scheme, granted) have not been stellar: he's made throws, but mostly of the dink-and-dunk variety.

David Yudkin: Last year was the first season in which Cleveland's QB totals really were bottom-tier. They had been below average, but they really dropped with the loss of a half dozen passing TDs. I've been reading that they have added some plays to the playbook and hope to open up the offense some, so there is hope for a return to mediocrity. A lot will depend on the health of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, as without them the Browns will like be mired in bottom five production.

Cecil Lammey: Cleveland is on the right path. Charlie Frye is a playmaker who has a good arm, decent accuracy, and can throw well on the run. His decision making needs to improve, but he's only a second-year QB. Frye is an emerging star in this league.

Sigmund Bloom: Charlie Frye has looked poised and resourceful in his short NFL career, and the return of Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards gives him some dangerous targets to throw to. Losing LeCharles Bentley at the beginning of camp was a blow to the line, but Frye should take another step forward this year and establish himself as the Browns long-term QB.

Maurile Tremblay: Will Rex Grossman keep the job in Chicago?

Mark Wimer: That's question, isn't it? How long will coach Lovie Smith insist on sticking with Grossman over Griese. If the Grossman experiment runs all year long, then the defense will have to average fewer than 13 points a game allowed again during 2006 to keep the Bears in the hunt, in my opinion. If Griese gets his shot at #1, I'd expect there to be far more production on offense..

Cecil Lammey: Chicago will be starting Griese sooner rather than later. Grossman gets hurt like clockwork. Kyle Orton should be competing for the starting job in 2007.

David Yudkin: The Bears' passing numbers can't be worse than last year, when the Bears had no choice but to let Orton take over and run the team. Grossman and Griese should do much better than Orton did, but the mantra in Chicago will still be tough defense and a ball-control offense. They should be expected to throw the ball more, but even so, that probably will not get them out of the bottom tier of passing teams.

Sigmund Bloom: Brian Griese has had decent success over the years and is clearly the best QB on Chicago's roster. When you consider that they won the division last year with some of the worst quarterbacking this side of San Francisco, it becomes apparent that they have nowhere to go but up. Rex Grossman is on thin ice, but Chicago's running game and defense gives them the luxury of needing only a game manager, not a true franchise QB.

Maurile Tremblay: Finally, how much progress will Alex Smith make this year in San Francisco?

Jeff Pasquino: I'd say the exact same thing about Alex Smith as I did about J.P. Losman earlier. He will definitely show improvement since there's nowhere to go but up. He will not, however, end up in the Pro Bowl anytime soon.

Cecil Lammey: San Francisco should have traded down instead of taking Alex Smith. Smith has improved his game somewhat, but will never be a big time QB worthy of the #1 overall pick.

Mark Wimer: Alex Smith set his own floor last season; some improvement is to be expected. Antonio Bryant has forged a strong bond with the young signal caller, and gives him one solid target to trust. Arnaz Battle, Vernon Davis and Eric Johnson are the question marks. If they can perform to simply adequate levels, then the 49ers pass attack could be on its way to respectability. Respectability would be a victory for Smith at this point.

Sigmund Bloom: To me, Alex Smith looks vastly improved from last year's debacle. The 49ers have designed some plays to use his mobility. Smith has a true #1 WR in Antonio Bryant and a developing weapon in Vernon Davis. And if I may disagree with Cecil here, while I think the team may struggle to get more than five or six wins, I believe Smith should show the fans why he was picked #1 overall.

David Yudkin: The odds are pretty good that Smith won't have a 1-to-11 TD-to-INT ratio again this year. Davis may give Smith a big target to hit, but the team seems to think that it will take Davis more time than they had hoped to grasp the offense. Many folks are high on Bryant at WR, but I've seen him drop balls and have mental lapses throughout his career and am not so sure he'll be more than just a so-so fantasy option. Good health from Gore and Battle certainly would help. Like the Browns, the 49ers really tanked on offense last year, but had been merely below average in 2004 (and certainly much stronger the years before that).

Bottom line, the only QB from these teams I would really want to roster with any degree of eagerness would be Kitna. I'd probably also look to add Carr as a QB2, but the others I would leave for someone else or on the waiver wire.

Maurile Tremblay: Last year a lot of us were waiting to see whether Michael Jenkins or Roddy White would have breakout seasons, and . . . we're still waiting. Now Lelie joins the mix as the number three.

Are the WRs as a group destined to be an afterthought in the Falcons' offense again, or will there be some value here? Last year did the WRs struggle because of Vick's poor passing, or did Vick struggle as a passer because of poor play by the WRs? Chicken and egg problem. Either way, will it be corrected this year?

Mark Wimer: Michael Vick is the problem here, in my opinion. He is physically gifted enough to make just about any receiver look great, if only he could consistently deliver passes like the ones we see on his highlight reel. When he's dialed in, Vick is practically unstoppable as a passer. But when he loses concentration his mechanics fall apart and his passes squirt all over the place. I have seen no evidence that we should expect a better completion percentage than about 56% again this year (in aggregate), and that's just not good enough to be an elite passer in the NFL. Some games he'll hit 60-65%, but in others he'll be well under 50%. The receivers can't catch a ball on the turf or 10 feet over their heads.

Sigmund Bloom: Michael Vick just does not hang in the pocket long enough to go through progressions and make consistent connections downfield. Alge Crumpler will be the #1 target in the passing offense, yet again. Michael Jenkins, Roddy White, and Ashley Lelie will split the WR targets and none will be a viable fantasy option.

Cecil Lammey: There's a saying in fantasy football that every player has value. In Lelie's case, unfortunately, it's only on Madden. In real life the Falcons WRs leave much to be desired. As Sigmund said, Alge Crumpler is actually the WR1 in Atlanta. Jenkins is a possession receiver who lacks consistency. Roddy White is a big play threat with a QB who can't get him the ball, and Lelie is a career underachiever who wanted to be #1, and is now #3 on a team that doesn't throw very often, and when they do it's not that effective.

Jeff Pasquino: Granted this is the first year Vick will have two returning starters at the WR position, but I'm still not sold on them. Adding Lelie to the mix only reaffirms that this group isn't what it could be by a longshot. Of the three, I like White the most, but that's more of a statement about Jenkins and Lelie than a ringing endorsement for Roddy White. Alge Crumpler is the main man (aside from Warrick Dunn) until I see otherwise.

Players who recently changed teams

Maurile Tremblay: There are a number of players who recently found new NFL homes, including Doug Gabriel, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Kerry Collins, and TJ Duckett.

Let's start with Gabriel. Does going from the Raiders to the Patriots help or hurt his fantasy prospects this year? If Branch doesn't play, is Gabriel the #1 WR in New England ahead of Caldwell? Who do you like in Oakland now between Porter and Curry (or possibly Morant)?

Cecil Lammey: Doug Gabriel must be in paradise after going from perennial loser Aaron Brooks, to three-time champion Tom Brady. Gabriel will take advantage of his new situation, although I feel it will take him some time to adjust to the offense.

Porter is more talented than Curry, but Curry has a great work ethic. I am not sold on Jerry Porter after seeing him flash potential (without living up to it) for years.

Sigmund Bloom: I see Doug Gabriel's fantasy prospects being about the same in New England as they were in Oakland. The #1 option in the passing game in New England will be Ben Watson, and all of the WRs will play a role, with none getting the lion's share of WR targets. Deion Branch will play for New England at some point this year, cutting into Gabriel's targets even more. If Gabriel was the type of WR that could truly be a #1, or even an above average starter, New England would have had to give up a lot more than a fifth round pick for him. Assuming Ronald Curry's achilles is sound, I like his prospects better than Jerry Porter's.

Jeff Pasquino: Gabriel finds himself with a far better QB in a West Coast Offense, so I like his chances better than the deep ball offense in Oakland. Gabriel and Caldwell will probably be targeted about equally; I cannot see a true WR1 per se for the Patriots. Brady just hits the open man.

Jerry Porter is a bigger talent than Ronald Curry.

Mark Wimer: The Branch situation looks more and more volatile each day. I have removed him from my draft board at WR at this point. I think that Gabriel will step into the Patriots' offense, but more along the lines of David Givens '05 (59/738/2) -- in fact, I don't foresee a strong fantasy season for any of the Patriots' WRs in the wake of the Branch holdout. Brady will spread the ball around a lot.

Maurile Tremblay: Donte Stallworth was recently traded from New Orleans to Philadelphia. Does that help or hurt his fantasy prospects? Is Stallworth going to compete with Reggie Brown to be the featured receiver, or is Brown the clear number one? Who benefits more from this move: Donovan McNabb or Joe Horn? Finally, who do you like in New Orleans now between Marques Colston and Devery Henderson (or possibly someone else)?

Jeff Pasquino: Stallworth's prospects are similar to the Gabriel move. Again, like in New England, Reggie Brown and Stallworth will be targeted about equally. McNabb distributes the ball to whoever is open. Both teams, however, do feature the tight end (and Westbrook for Philly), so Stallworth will be the third or fourth target in the offense. McNabb throws so often that Stallworth will likely still get the same number of chances and put up similar stats as he would have with Drew Brees in New Orleans.

McNabb benefits more than Joe Horn does. McNabb's WRs just got markedly better. Joe Horn was the top receiver before or after the trade, but now he will get more double teams from the defense. The Saints will likely give Henderson and Colston plenty of chances to succeed, and both are brand new to HC Sean Payton's offense. I see split time for each.

Mark Wimer: Stallworth's value in Philadelphia will be determined by how hard he works to earn footballs. This was the knock on him in New Orleans -- that his work ethic was weak. Perhaps the trade has served as a wake-up call. I think he'll emerge as the #1 WR after a few weeks of getting acclimated as he has the skills and talent to be a featured guy - but I think he'll end up on the border between a WR2 and a WR3 in terms of fantasy points this year. McNabb hasn't usually relied on just one guy, and the whole Terrell Owens episode will probably serve to reinforce his and the coaching staffs' tendency to spread the ball around, in my opinion.

Joe Horn is the big winner from the fantasy perspective, in my opinion, because he'll see a lot more footballs now -- also more double-teams, it is true. Even with the erosion of Horn's body due to age and hits, he'll have lots of opportunities to make plays now. I like Henderson as the #2 here as he's a NFL veteran from a prominent college conference (LSU in the SEC) while Colston played at Hofstra and is a very green rookie.

Sigmund Bloom: Reggie Brown will be ahead of Donte Stallworth in the pecking order for targets, but they are both probably behind Brian Westbrook and LJ Smith. Correll Buckhalter is back and he'll give the Eagles a power running option they haven't had for years. I don't either Stallworth or Brown being more than a WR3 for fantasy this year. Joe Horn's outlook is the same, he was always going to be the main target, McNabb looks better with another viable target and should be the clear #3 QB. Marques Colston has made huge strides in training camp, and if he's earned the trust of the new coaching staff, then I'll count on him to hold off Devery Henderson, but the WR2 is probably not a viable fantasy WR this year no matter who it is.

Cecil Lammey: Donte Stallworth is in Philadelphia to win the #1 receiver role. Reggie Brown is more consistent, and has a better work ethic than does Stallworth. But Donte is a physical freak that can be a monster WR when motivated. McNabb is clearly the winner here. He picks up another legitimate target in an offense that likes to throw the ball around.

Maurile Tremblay: Ashley Lelie is one of the better deep threats in the league. Will he have any success with Michael Vick throwing to him? He goes from being the starter in Denver last year to the third receiver in Atlanta? Is that a death knell for his fantasy value?

Jeff Pasquino: Vick's deep ball isn't that accurate, and Lelie isn't the best route runner. I see a lot of "he's open, but incomplete" going on there. Lelie's fantasy value plummeted after the Javon Walker trade, and I don't anticipate him putting up good numbers at all. Lelie catches under 50% of his targets and runs mostly deep routes, and I don't see Vick hitting him in stride very often.

Cecil Lammey: If Vick can actually look downfield when a play breaks down, then I think Lelie will make some big plays. Michael Vick is not a good passer. Never has been and never will be. Lelie is a player who can only run one route, the go route. Don't expect Lelie to do much other than a few big plays here and there for the Falcons.

Mark Wimer: The question for Lelie will be whether or not Vick will be patient enough to allow deep passes to develop. If Vick learns to trust Lelie to run under his bombs and make adjustments to the ball, they could hook up for some nice deep plays. But if Vick doesn't develop a strong rapport with Lelie, he will be an after-thought.

Sigmund Bloom: Lelie has the same fantasy value as all Atlanta WRs have had since Michael Vick took over, basically zero. He will be good for some long TDs this year, but good luck guessing which weeks they happen in.

Maurile Tremblay: Assuming Kerry Collins starts over Billy Volek, what kind of numbers do you expect him to put up in Tennessee? He compiled some nice fantasy stats last year in Oakland, but Drew Bennett is no Randy Moss. What is Collins' realistic upside this season?

Jeff Pasquino: I still cannot believe Collins is the starter over Volek already, if at all. The starting QB in Tennessee would put up good numbers if he played every series, as they will be playing from behind in most games this year. Rookie QB Vince Young, however, throws a wrench in those plans as he is supposedly getting a few series each week, which will limit Collins' (or Volek's) numbers.

Mark Wimer: Kerry Collins has come into this offense very late, and will likely sputter and stall to open up the season if he gets the nod. I just don't see how his upside justifies the risk of rostering him. He hasn't been put in a position to succeed, given his late signing and the crash-course about the offensive system in Tennessee. He might manage a few surprise games with 300+ yards and 2+ TDs after some weeks in the system, but early on I think 200 yards with 1 TD and 1-2 interceptions per week is the most you could hope for. I wouldn't want him as my fantasy starter.

Sigmund Bloom: Kerry Collins was dead to the fantasy football world a few months ago, and his possible starting role in Tennessee shouldn't greatly change that. You don't want to be starting this guy in any league, except maybe a 32-teamer. Collins' upside this year is being a solid backup fantasy QB, but nothing more.

Cecil Lammey: If Collins does get to start it won't be for very long. Vince Young is going to see the field sooner rather than later. Collins could put up good numbers if starting because Tennessee is a team that is going to be playing from behind a lot this year.

Maurile Tremblay: And lastly, T.J. Duckett. Duckett's departure obviously raises Jerious Norwood's value in Atlanta, but how much does it raise Warrick Dunn's (if at all)? Will Dunn see an increase in his rushing TDs? And what will Duckett's role be in Washington? Assuming Portis cannot play in week one, will Duckett get more carries than Ladell Betts?

Mark Wimer: T.J. Duckett is the #2 RB in Washington, in my opinion. He'll vulture TDs from Portis at the goal line similar to what he did to Dunn in Atlanta, and if Portis is unavailable, Duckett will get the main load in my opinion. The Redskins made the trade for a reason, and Duckett has proven he can play well enough to make good things happen at this level.

Jeff Pasquino: Norwood's production this preseason shows that he is ready to perform at this level. Duckett became expendable, and the Falcons have confidence in Dunn. Dunn should get a few more rushing TDs, but so will Vick.

Duckett is an insurance policy for the Redskins, not much more. The Redskins had injuries to not just Portis but also their next 3 RBs on the depth chart this preseason (which left Mike Sellers to carry the ball in preseason). They do not value draft picks very highly as an organization, so acquiring TJ for a third was cheap for them.

Cecil Lammey: I actually think Dunn could lose his job to Norwood. Jerious has the home run ability that Dunn lost a long time ago. Norwood will start his career as a change of pace back, but could see more playing time as the year goes on. Duckett will back up Ladell Betts, if Betts is fully healthy.

Sigmund Bloom: Dunn's value definitely gets an uptick with Duckett gone. He should get at least a few more shots at rushing TDs in the red zone. Duckett and Betts will be an RBBC if Portis can't go. I expect Betts to get more touches, but Duckett is still the better play because he'll get the TD opportunities.

Overreacting to week one performances

Maurile Tremblay: Every year in the first week of the season, some highly drafted players have lousy games and some relative unknowns are, for at least one week, superstars.

Last year WR Frisman Jackson of the Browns had 8 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown in week one . . . and then did nothing for the rest of the season. Similarly, TE Chris Baker -- 7 catches for 124 yards and a TD in week one, and he never got 50 yards after that. TE Alex Smith had two TDs in week one and then didn't score again.

There are counter-examples like Anquan Boldin, who had a surprise huge week one in 2003 on his way to an excellent season. Likewise, in 1999 Kurt Warner was a complete unknown before he came out and threw 300+ yards a 3 TDs in week one. You know the rest of the story.

But it seems that for every Anquan Boldin there are five or six Frisman Jacksons. There will be five or six players this weekend who will have surprisingly productive games. Is there any trick to distinguishing the one-hit-wonders from the players who will become steady producers?

Jeff Pasquino: I was recently reviewing Doug Drinen's article about Week 1 Performances. That may provide more direction here.

Maurile Tremblay: Thanks for mentioning that. I actually had that article in mind as I was asking the question.

The article concludes that QBs who have big first weeks are much more likely to do well the rest of the season than WRs who have big first weeks. (RBs are in between.)

In general, when evaluating week one performances, I tend to be more persuaded by strong QB performances than strong RB/WR/TE performances, and also by yards rather than touchdowns.

For RBs, the guys most likely to hugely improve their stock after week one are the guys whose roles had not been completely defined in the offense. If Reggie Bush gets 25 carries this weekend, his value goes way up. If Wali Lundy splits carries with Morency evenly and then gives way to Dayne at the goal line, his value goes way down. With RBs, I would pay more attention to workload than to yards or touchdowns in the opening week.

Sigmund Bloom: The key to knowing whether to give huge weight to week one performances is knowing the context for a player coming into the new season. After week one last year some WR outlooks became much clearer. You could feel comfortable that Steve Smith was 100% and that Larry Fitzgerald was going to step up his role in the Arizona passing game. If you traded for them after week one, even with the inflated price from their ADP because of the big week one game, you got a value. On the other hand, if you went after Antwaan Randle-El, that was ill-advised. Sure, he caught a long TD, confirming his role in the post-Plax Steelers passing offense, but he also only got 3 measly targets. In other words, you learned that Randle-El's role in the passing game was going to be limited, he did not look like a bread and butter part of the passing offense, despite the stat line of 89 yards and TD that made anyone who started him very happy.

Bad performances can also be illuminating. The Broncos tried to make Ashley Lelie their go-to WR in week 1 last year, with 12 targets, including 3 precious targets inside the Miami 10 yard line. He failed miserably - ending with 2 catches and 17 yards.

Once again, the key is to know the context, to know what about a WR's role is up in the air, so you can see what the week 1 performance is foreshadowing. I think you can determine some things such as how featured new/emerging players will be in a passing attack, how players are recovering from injuries, and how players are going to do in their new roles. You must always look behind the numbers. Frisman Jackson went off in week one last year, but it was only because he scored a 68 yard TD and got targets in the 2 minute drill and in the 4th quarter when the Browns were down big. Chris Baker got big numbers in garbage time against the Jets. Don't just look at the stats, ask how they got them.

Mark Wimer: One situation that I am watching closely this week is the Saints' #2 WR situation in the wake of the Donte Stallworth trade. There have been rumors that rookie Marques Colston could get the starting nod over third-year guy Devery Henderson, but nothing has been set in stone and of course, with such an unsettled situation, getting the start means you'll be in on exactly one play - the first - for sure.

Colston was a 7th round draft pick out of Hofstra, so he's making a big leap into the pro ranks from where he played in college. The reason I mention this is if he makes a big splash in week one, I'll be more inclined to suspect a "flash in the pan" - he's just too inexperienced and though he's obviously made the roster, rookie WRs tend to be spotty in performance as they learn the pro game - especially guys from smaller college programs.

Henderson, who played in the SEC for LSU in college, has been around the pros for a few years and has that critical mass of experience and repetitions under his belt - although he went back to square one with Brees this year, he's run routes against pro DBs and had some success last year (22/343/3 out of 50 targets). If Henderson has a strong game week 1, I'll be heading to the waiver wire in a few leagues to put in a bid on him.

Cecil Lammey: The key is to be ahead of your other owners. If you have an owner in your league that is gung-ho about making waiver wire moves, then you can take advantage of him. Or, if he drops a player with more value (say he drops Jurevicius for Frisman Jackson) then you can pick up the "scraps" from his team and turn them into gold.

Some fantasy players make too many moves and move themselves right out of playoff contention by trying to play the "hot hand."

Maurile Tremblay: Great discussion. Thanks a lot for a great start to the Roundtable feature this year, guys. This was a fun first week, and I look forward picking your brains some more throughout the season.