Why does the Tampa-2 defense make Charles Tillman more valuable to your fantasy roster than a name shutdown corner like Chris McCallister? Why could the new 3-4 scheme the Jets are installling hurt Jonathan Vilma's value? Why did a top ten fantasy linebacker like Demorrio Williams get benched the following season? What makes Rod Coleman drastically more productive than a top 15 NFL draft pick like Haloti Ngata? How do you know whether an unknown player's huge statistical week is the beginning of a stud season or just a lucky replacement level player that will kill your team while you wonder why he hasn't been able to generate another big week?

In this weekly column, we'll answer those kinds of questions. We'll take a look behind the numbers and separate the studs from the duds. We'll try to anticipate trends rather than react to them by looking at how schemes, responsibilities, injuries, and surrounding casts affect a given player's current production. Sort of a Dr. Z-like Thinking Man's Guide to Football written with every IDP/dynasty owner in mind, whether you're playing in your first IDP league or a grizzled and established veteran of multiple leagues.

Here's a sampling of what's on the priority watch list for 2006:

Can AJ Hawk overcome the limitations of his scheme and produce boxscore stats equal to his draft status? Although the Packers have a new coaching staff this year, the Green Bay defensive scheme hasn't changed. It's the same 4-3 defense that traces its lineage back to Jimmy Johnson and Dave Wannstedt at the University of Miami and has highlighted the MLB as the primary tackle producer wherever installed. From Ken Norton, Jr. to Micheal Barrow to Ray Lewis to Zach Thomas to Jonathan Vilma to Nick Barnett, the MLB has significantly out-produced the WLB by year's end. In most rookie drafts, AJ Hawk was the first linebacker off the board, with his new owners looking for production worthy of a top 5 NFL draft pick. Although it's bad form to read too much into pre-season boxscores, Hawk was clearly out-played and out-produced by Barnett. We'll track Hawk's progress this season to see if his expected big play capability and play in the nickel and dime packages is enough to overcome the limitations of the Packer scheme.

What impact will the Tampa-2 defense have on the IDP landscape? The NFL is a copycat league and the variation of the Cover-2 defense designed and executed to great success by Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin in the mid-1990s is becoming the newest rage. And the IDP implications are huge. Will we see an influx of Ronde Barber-like corners and Derrick Brooks-like WLBs? Can a Tampa-2 safety be consistent enough in run support to reach the tackle numbers needed to be a top 20 performer? Does the scheme spill ballcarriers to the weak side often enough to make the RCB consistently more valuable in run support than the LCB? Will we see a big boost in the number of defensive tackles that hold consistent IDP value because of the undertackle/nose tackle alignment the scheme employs on the defensive line?

We'll also keep a close eye on how Adam Archuleta and Sean Taylor affect the other's value, whether Takeo Spikes and Thomas Davis can thrive as a SLBs, and how much 4-4-3 the Baltimore Ravens run and how it affects the production of Adalius Thomas and Ray Lewis. We'll try to stay ahead of the inevitable early season trends at CB and DE and find the Kyle Vanden Boschs and Charles Tillmans of 2006 on the wire before your leaguemates.

Also, with your help, I'd like this to become an interactive space. Feel free to email suggestions or questions on players, situations, and schemes that you'd like to see broken down and discussed to bramel@footballguys.com. I may not be able to get to all of them but will make every effort to cover as many as possible during the season.