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The Profit
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Posted 1/18 by Michael Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Well, what can I add that hasn't already been said? I could go on and on about
San Diego making more silly mistakes in one game than they've made in the past
three seasons combined. I could complain about Marty Schottenheimer's insane
usage of his challenges and time-outs (and subsequent retaining of his job?by
the way, seriously -- the fact that Tom Coughlin and Schottenheimer were both
able to keep their jobs after this season should give a lot of hope to Corey
Feldman that he can still one day become an Academy Award winner).
It was about as bad of a loss as I've experienced, and I had to watch the 1995
American League Division Series, 2001 World Series and 2004 American League
Championship series losses as a Yankee fan whose favorite players ever are Don
Mattingly and Mariano Rivera (Apologies to you non-baseball fans out there who
couldn't care less). I had to sit through the Knicks losing to the Rockets in
1994 with my favorite player being John Starks. Even amongst football losses,
the Super Bowl loss to the Niners was no match for this considering I never
really thought the Chargers had a chance in that one. I wasn't as sad as those
losses because it's tough to feel very upset for players who have historically
done nothing but frustrate the hell out of you, but it was certainly more disappointing
and infuriating. This combined every bad aspect of a loss and rolled it up into
one, complete with the team's best player playing his heart out only to see
it go for naught.
That said, you people probably don't care much about my lamenting. Those of
you who are fans of these teams are probably jacked up to watch these games.
Even as a Chargers fan, I'm pretty psyched about the Sunday afternoon of football
that awaits. The NFC matchup sees a great story against a team that, despite
clinching home-field advantage before anyone, seemingly isn't given much of
a chance to win in the playoffs. And the AFC matchup, for anyone who is a football
fan, is about as good as it gets. So without further ado?
Let's get to the picks!
Source: Yahoo.com Pro Football Pick'em
CHICAGO (-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
By now, everyone is well on board the New Orleans bandwagon. They're America's
story, and by now everyone is pulling for them. Not only that, but the Saints
are a very good team as they've proven numerous times in beating several of
the league's better teams. The question for them at this point is how far will
goodwill and a wide television fan base carry them when they have to go into
Soldier Field before a raucous crowd?
The Bears played well enough to win, but certainly also well enough to lose,
last week. It took a tough kick in an overtime game at home against a team that
had struggled for weeks (and had barely beaten another team that had struggled
for weeks). In other words, the Bears were less than impressive a week ago in
taking down Seattle. Sure, Rex Grossman played well enough. But does that mean
he's somewhat over his midseason jitters? Or does it instead mean that he can't
possibly have two such games in a row? If it seems as if I'm asking a lot of
questions without a lot of answers here, that's the point. What we have here
is truly a game that could go either way. Chicago hasn't impressed, and the
Saints have at least three players on offense who can score from any point on
the field. Those two or three big plays in a playoff game can sometimes outweigh
getting outplayed on the other 95 (or did you not watch last year's Super Bowl).
The Bears, on the other hand, are short on playmakers offensively. Yes, Bernard
Berrian has been able to stretch the field a time or two. And sure, the Chicago
run game features two top runners in Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. But are
those guys difference-makers along the lines of Deuce McAllister and Reggie
Bush? Is the Chicago defensive front any better than the New Orleans front at
this point in the season? It might sound ludicrous to offer up such a possibility,
but go and check how badly the Bears have been torched by some of the league's
better runners since the midway point in the season, and then get back to me
with your answer.
Which brings us to QB play. Not close. Advantage, Saints.
Offensively, New Orleans has got it all over the Bears. Even defensively, the
gap isn't as wide as you might think. How much the home-field advantage will
come into play could be the difference here. I think a part of the problem is
that the Chicago fans are just as ready to turn on the team's offense as they
are to support it. If Rex throws an untimely pick or fumbles the ball in the
shadow of his own end zone, the fans may turn on him rather than get behind
him. I could be wrong but in talking with several Bears fans over the week they
almost to a man agreed that they were fortunate to win that game with Rex but
they still wouldn't hesitate to yank him at the first sign of trouble. The Saints
are on a mission and have everything perfectly lined up, whereas the Bears don't
really know exactly which Rex Grossman will show up - still. Yes, the New Orleans
mission will probably end with a big Super Bowl loss. But I'm a believer until
I see otherwise. PICK: Saints
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) vs. NEW ENGLAND
Ugh. It's difficult to stomach these teams playing here when I'm about 99.7%
sure that the Chargers are more talented than either of them. But like I said
above, I won't dwell on that TOO much here. The simple fact is, these are the
teams that are here. While the Colts played all season long like a team that
would make an early exit, the Patriots rolled right along in their typical manner
by beating just about everyone they needed to. Now last week we saw the Patriots
pull off perhaps their most amazing and shocking victory of this entire Super
Bowl run. As is customary, they had a fair share of breaks from their opponent's
mistakes, but just as typical was the fact that they made the big plays they
needed to make. You can't give this team extra opportunities or they'll burn
you. So what do Belichick and company have up their sleeve this week? Can they
shut down two of the league's most talented players in successive weeks on the
road? A tall order indeed.
Conventional wisdom would say that Peyton Manning can't possibly have three
awful games in a row. You'd think that one of these weeks he is going to break
out, and do so in a big way. You just feel like there's one of those magical
games in him, where four touchdowns and 350 yards will put his team into the
Super Bowl and get the monkey off his back. But conventional wisdom doesn't
always apply to the Patriots' schemes. Has Peyton Manning gotten that much better
since the last playoff loss to the Patriots? Because in that one, he looked
nothing like a guy capable of beating this team - ever. And don't hand me the
"but the Patriots aren't as good this time around". I was one of those
people spouting that garbage at this time a week ago, and look where that got
my beloved Bolts. Sitting at home watching the AFC title game on TV. It doesn't
matter if Belichick lines up the cast of 90210 in his defensive backfield; he's
going to find a way to frustrate you.
Now if you'll allow me to, I'm going to almost disregard everything I've said
to this point. This game is going to be hyped based upon Manning's offense versus
the New England defense. But while that's the sexy storyline and will certainly
play a large part, this game is going to be won or lost depending on how well
the Indianapolis defense handles the New England offense. If the Patriots are
able to run the ball effectively and Brady is given enough time to find Jabar
Gaffney for 18 sideline receptions, it'll be a long day in Indianapolis. But
if Dwight Freeney can get to him two or three times to ruin drives?if Bob
Sanders can keep up the impact he's made on the opponent's running games for
the past two weeks?if the Colts can find a way to avoid giving up that
late-game drive that will allow Adam Vinatieri II (aka, Stephen Gostkowski)
to boot the game-winner on their turf, then that will be the difference everyone
will point to.
How am I picking this one? Well I'm using the same philosophy I used to use
when picking major league baseball's division winners. Every year, I'd pencil
in the Braves as the NL East champs. Even when it may have seemed foolish to
do so. Why? Because I was playing the percentages. Until it didn't happen, I
had no reason to think it wouldn't. Likewise, until the Colts show me that they
can actually win one of these games on the big stage, I have my doubts about
it happening. I'd be thrilled to be wrong about the outcome because I'm rooting
for Peyton to get to a big game just once. And I wouldn't be in the least bit
shocked if the Colts do win it. They're probably more talented overall. They've
got home-field advantage, the better running game, a disciplined team, solid
pass rush, good QB protection?essentially, all of the things the Chargers
had, too. Hmmm. PICK: Patriots
LOCK OF THE WEEK: New Orleans Saints
- LAST WEEK
OVERALL: 1-3 (25%)
LOCK OF WEEK: 0-1
- PLAYOFF TOTALS
OVERALL: 3-5 (38%)
LOCK OF WEEK: 0-2
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