Well, last week I did about what was expected of me based on this season? I was very mediocre, posting a 2-2 record on last week's games. I felt great after Saturday winning both of them (even if I did luck out with Dallas/Seattle). I was far more confident in the Sunday games, but the Jets proved once again why it's so dangerous to pick a team to lose but cover. They tend to take more risks when behind late, often resulting in disastrous outcomes. And little did I know the Giants actually had some fight left in them. Except for Tiki Barber, who apparently found it HILARIOUS that his team was about to be bounced from the postseason in round 1 of a very winnable game. Let's see if any media will call him out on it this week and compare him to Aaron Brooks?ummmm, nope. Guess not.

Of course, that 2-2 record last week is also scary because it's only going to get tougher from this point. The teams still alive are obviously that much better, and you could probably run a "who's going to win" poll on any one of the four games and get close to a 50-50 split on each. And if I go 0-4 this week, trust me -- you won't get anymore serious analysis outta me. So with that in mind?

Let's get to the picks!

Source: Yahoo.com Pro Football Pick'em

BALTIMORE (-3.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Some are looking at the Colts after one playoff game and seeing a more complete team; a team that can win even when Peyton Manning throws three bad interceptions and doesn't play very well. I'm choosing instead to see a team that needs Peyton Manning to beat a quality opponent, because there's no way the Colts are beating Baltimore without a top performance from him. That's like expecting Ben Stiller to be funny without great writers. Just isn't gonna happen.

And what I'm also seeing is that Manning struggled mightily last week with the Chiefs - THE CHIEFS! Who knows how bad the Ravens will make him look. And sure, the Colts run defense did a great job on Larry Johnson a week ago. While some may choose to believe that that means the defense is in the middle of an in-season renaissance, I'm choosing instead to base my opinion on the sample size of 17 weeks rather than 1. What I'm saying is, I don't expect THAT to happen again. And even if I don't completely trust Jamal Lewis, I've got to admit that the results have been very encouraging from him ever since Brian Billick took over the play-calling duties. And he's the precise type of player that can give the Colts fits. The defense of Indianapolis, from what I've seen, isn't really slow to react or getting to the ball-carrier. It's that they have a world of trouble actually bringing him down once they get there. I see this as the biggest detriment to Indy's chances. And before you go and question why Larry Johnson wasn't able to do the same, I'll tell you it's because the Chiefs didn't have a legitimate passing game to take the pressure off of LJ. The Colts knew they could sell out on run because that KC pass offense wasn't scaring anyone. The Ravens, on the other hand, feature a passing game that is much-improved with Steve McNair at the helm. Of course, if he dies on the first play of the game then this outcome could be decidedly different. But assuming he is able to avoid an early demise, the Ravens should feature enough in the passing game to ease the pressure on Lewis. As for the Colts offense versus the Baltimore defense, this is a definite mismatch. While the Colts featured their typical great passing offense, the running game was only middle of the pack. Baltimore's run defense was one of the best in the entire league, and I don't anticipate them having much trouble shutting down Joseph Addai and company without needing extra defenders to do so. Which means they can focus exclusively on the passing game. Which means a lot of trouble for Peyton Manning. Yes, last week the Colts gave a stellar performance. Let's not let that one week cloud what we learned the previous 17. PICK: Ravens

NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
No game is ever a lock in the postseason. Not even if you're just picking the moneyline, since so much can happen over the course of a playoff team and there are always some surprises in store for even the most ardent NFL follower. That said, I like the Saints as much as any team in any game this postseason (including the next two weeks, because no matter who plays in the championship games it'll be tough matchups all the way around). I just love the Saints in that dome for a home playoff game. I'd probably love them in this spot against just about any team, let alone one that didn't really impress me much in beating a hapless Giants squad a week ago. Yes, the Eagles did just enough to get the job done. And there's certainly something to be said for always finding a way to win. But the Saints just have far too much firepower for them here. Add in the always critical component of having that extra week of rest, and it becomes that much clearer. The two-headed monster of Deuce and Bush will give the Eagles shoddy run defense fits, which in turn will open up deep passing lanes for the Saints to exploit. The Eagles might have a tough time moving the ball consistently against the Saints, because as well as he's played I still have this image of Jeff Garcia in Cleveland orange and Detroit blue in the back of my mind. I've seen how awful he can be, and even the slightest mistakes against a far superior opponent can often make the difference between winning and losing. I'm not suggesting the Eagles will fail to show up or get blown out of the building, but a double digit win is pretty likely I think, as the Saints ride the emotion (and the better talent) to a fairly uneventful victory. PICK: Saints

CHICAGO (-8.5) vs. SEATTLE
There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about Seattle here. Sure, they have Shaun Alexander who they were missing the last time they played. But then again, is Shaun Alexander even Shaun Alexander these days? Another factor is Matt Hasselbeck, who is really taking the "next Brett Favre" thing to extremes with all of the turnovers. Another is the Seattle defense, which hasn't exactly scared anyone lately. And finally, there is the fact that it took a gift of a botched play to win a home playoff game against a team that was in utter shambles prior to last week. Yes, there are plenty of reasons to be afraid of Seattle here. But does that mean the Bears are flawless? Hell no. They've allowed more than a handful of runners to pick up some seriously huge yardage in recent weeks, for one thing. And considering the defense was supposed to be the strong point, that's got to be a concern. Because if there's one thing we've learned, it's that Rex Grossman is not one to be relied upon. I'm not suggesting he can't play well - just that we can't EXPECT it. If he does play well, the Bears should win with ease. If he doesn't play well, they'll still probably win but probably not with ease. And if he plays like garbage, well it'd take a defense much better than this one to win with a QB who plays like crap. And that's IF they get Brian Griese in there with enough time remaining to do some damage. All in all, I do like the Bears to win the game. But based on how they've played in recent weeks, I can't justify laying this many points. Yes, I got burned with this exact scenario a week ago with the Jets and Patriots. And sure, I can easily see a well-rested Bears team really coming out ready to play. But there are too many outside variables that need to be considered before I'll lay this many points against last year's NFC champs. PICK: Seahawks

SAN DIEGO (-4.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
Some are calling this not only the game of the week, but the game of the season. I'm right there with those people, but not because I think it'll be close. I like it because as a Chargers fan, I don't see many ways the Patriots are superior. Granted, one must give the advantage to New England on the coach and the quarterback - but don't kid yourself into thinking those advantages are larger than they really are. Tom Brady is probably the best quarterback in football, and Philip Rivers struggled some down the stretch. But Rivers (assuming his injury has healed enough) played flawlessly for much of the season and has now had two weeks of prep to study and watch the Patriots defense. Granted, Bill Belichick is given a lot of credit for mixing things up and putting his defense in the best position to confuse these other top quarterbacks. But he just doesn't have the same personnel he's used to having. Not only that, he doesn't often have to account for arguably the best player in football. Everywhere you look, San Diego has the firepower to be able to put points on the board consistently against this Pats defense. Need proof? Go back and check the tape of the meeting between these teams in Week 4 of 2005. The Chargers blew New England out of the water to the tune of 41-17 and ended New England's home winning streak in the process, and since that time the Chargers offense has only improved. In that game, the Pats showed very little ability to slow Tomlinson OR Michael Turner, and Drew Brees carved them up at will. The common theme to both is that Rodney Harrison missed that game, and will miss this one as well. That is enough reason to be concerned that the Patriots may have a large issue with stopping the running game. Yes, other players from New England were missing in that other game - but Harrison is the one who provides that physical presence against the run. It's a very different story to try and slow Leon Washington as opposed to LaDainian Tomlinson. And if you do account for Tomlinson, there's Antonio Gates. And if you do somehow account for Tomlinson and Gates, then you try convincing me that they'll be able to get any kind of pressure on Philip Rivers. As for the New England offense, I'm not going to say the Chargers will stop Tom Brady. But they will stop the running game. And if they can get up early by a score or two, it will greatly enhance the ability to put pressure on Brady. With New England's lack of playmaking receivers, the Chargers can afford to send extra pass-rushers to disrupt the timing and really make things difficult. I know a lot of people are giving credit to the Patriots simply for being the Patriots, and I've been guilty of doing that a time or two myself, but I just don't think they have enough to compete over a 60 minute game on the road against a team that appears unstoppable and hasn't lost a home game since last season. Not to mention the Chargers having the feel-good story of the year in Shawne Merriman on their side, who apparently is now a media darling (which makes about as much sense as Mandy Moore dating DJ AM?but I digress. PICK: Chargers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: New Orleans Saints

• LAST WEEK
  OVERALL: 2-2 (50%)
  LOCK OF WEEK: 0-1
  
• PLAYOFF TOTALS
  OVERALL: 2-2 (50%)
  LOCK OF WEEK: 0-1