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The Profit
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Posted 1/4 by Michael Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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That's right, it's my favorite time of year! No, not playoff time - I mean
the time of year when Jessica Alba hits the paparazzi-filled beaches of the
world and causes the Internet to break. Hey, at least the most recent ones are
football-related, right? And if you have no idea what I'm talking about, I truly
feel awful for you.
Anyway - as I do every season, I do a playoff Profit feature just for kicks,
but I personally do not wager anything on the real NFL playoffs. Not a pool,
not straight-up bets, not even side wagers with a buddy. To me, the fact that
it's the NFL playoffs is more than enough to get me excited about the games.
Of course, if you want to make a little coin on the side I won't judge. My only
advice is to probably do the exact opposite of what I say here, because last
year in the playoffs I sucked.
No wait, sucked isn't a strong enough word. In fact, the only way to truly
describe how bad I was is to use a verb phrase that would probably cost me my
staff position. So let's just leave it at sucked.
Let's get to the picks!
Source: Yahoo.com Pro Football Pick'em
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) vs. KANSAS CITY
This game is by far the toughest of the four to pick. And on a weekend where
anybody can beat anybody in a season where anybody can beat anybody, that's
truly saying something. What will prevail here? Will the Colts passing game
do too much damage against the Kansas City defense? Will Larry Johnson torch
Indianapolis for 375 yards and never look back? Whatever the outcome, one result
that you can take to the bank is that a light-skinned black man with a thin
mustache will coach the winning team.
I am one of the ones who believes the Colts offense will have their way enough.
Sure, everyone rightly assumes that the Chiefs will run on the Colts all day
long. OK, great. Why is it that that result will happen but the Colts will fail
to throw the ball on KC? The game is being played in Indianapolis. The Colts
have proven to be the better team this season, as the Chiefs only even made
the postseason after getting a ton of help. Sure, Larry Johnson is an awesome
running back - but is Peyton Manning not an awesome QB? Is Marvin Harrison not
truly a most awesome receiver? People who are looking to the Chiefs to ram the
ball down their throats all game long are being shortsighted about Indy's own
offense. Sure, it hasn't been quite as explosive or dominant as we've seen in
recent seasons. But I think that when the time comes and the situation calls
for it (as long as it's early in the playoffs), the team will be able to muster
up more than enough scoring to win this shoot-out.PICK: Colts
SEATTLE (-3) vs. DALLAS
There's a lot of difficulty in picking every game, but how does one go about
picking the winner of a game between two teams who are seemingly in shambles?
The Seahawks have lost to the Niners twice in the past five minutes and are
a mess right now with their injury situation. The Cowboys lost to the Lions
and Tony Romo has returned to Earth. Though I want to know when Earth suddenly
became a place where journeyman backup quarterbacks suddenly pulled in Jessica
Simpson and Carrie Underwood weeks apart after a few good games. Of course,
people anointing him Tom Brady probably helps. Idiots. By the way, I had a debate
this week with some coworkers regarding Carrie Underwood. I wouldn't acknowledge
that she is merely "average" looking, because well - she's not. Saying
she's average is like calling my record this season great. No wait, it's not
like that. But it's something like that. Whatever, she's hot. Do you know who
isn't hot though? (Awkward segue coming in 3
2
1) These teams! (there
it is). The biggest reason I'm going with the Cowboys here is because I needed
to pick at least two underdogs this weekend. The season has been filled with
underdogs covering and/or winning outright, and it would be pretty dumb (yet
also typical) of me to pick all four favorites. It might be a stupid reason
to go with a team, but I'm finally getting onboard with this trend thing and
I thought I'd give it a shot. Plus, they've been my Super Bowl pick for awhile,
and most of you know I was never crazy high on Seattle to begin with. Terrell
Owens can really exploit what is a decimated secondary, and I think that Shaun
Alexander could run into a bit of trouble running against Dallas. Not a lot,
but some. Of course, I wouldn't be shocked to see Matt Hasselbeck threw eleventeen
touchdowns against a very porous secondary either, but let's just hope together.
PICK: Cowboys
NEW ENGLAND (8.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Jet fans are either ecstatic or downright frightened about this pairing. Either
A) You are happy to play the Pats because you get to go up against the team
your coach knows so well, who you already beat, or B) You wanted play a team
whose weakness is your weakness (Colts run defense vs. Jets run offense) and
hopefully cancel it out. As it is, of course, the Jets will be traveling to
Foxboro for a nice rivalry game. The notion is generally to pick the team you
expect to win the game in the postseason, point spread be damned. Yet here we
have the Jets as 8.5 point underdogs, a huge spread considering the Jets lost
to New England by seven and then beat them by three - in Foxboro, no less. And
that was right around the time of the Jets' renaissance, to boot. What I'm saying
is that this isn't the same team that lost to New England early in the season,
and even then they didn't get blown out. In fact, the Jets rarely get blown
out. They were destroyed by Jacksonville and Buffalo, and were shut out 10-0
by the Bears. They didn't lose another game by more than eight. What's more,
the Patriots didn't blow out very many quality opponents. The Bengals and Titans
are the only teams they blew out, so it's not as if they tend to march up and
down the field at will either. If this was a touchdown spread or less, I'd probably
go with New England. But I don't see a game between two big division rivals
featuring coaches who are bigger rivals than the teams themselves coming down
to more than a one score differential. In a rare risk, I'm picking the Jets
to lose but cover the spread. And yes, I'm still counting it as a win if they
just win outright. PICK: Jets
PHILADELPHIA (-7) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
This is by far the easiest game to pick this week, so of course the Giants will
win. I mean, Philadelphia is clearly the hot team right now while New York snuck
its way into the playoffs (barely). Yet they're getting only seven points at
Philly, which is not nearly enough for them to cover. Aside from Tiki Barber's
running, show me one aspect of the New York game plan that has worked consistently
well since, I don't know, Week 5. There isn't one. The Eagles have come around
just in time, and have played extremely well down the stretch (duh). The whole
club has been rejuvenated by Jeff Garcia's resurgence, and this would be a colossal
victory for the Giants. About the only way I can see them winning here is if
Tiki Barber duplicates what he did a week ago. The Eagles have been known to
have a suspect run defense at times over the past few seasons, and Barber could
be on something of a mission to not let his career end on such a downer with
a loss to the Eagles. Thing is, there are still ten other guys who have to play
- and I don't know that they're ready to, physically OR mentally. PICK: Eagles
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia Eagles
- LAST WEEK
OVERALL: 8-8 (50%)
BEST BETS: 2-3 (40%)
LOCK OF WEEK: 0-1
- SEASON TOTALS
OVERALL: -130-7 (48%)
BEST BETS: 37-35-2 (51%)
PICK OF WEEK: 12-5 (71%)
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