Michael Brown - The Profit

KANSAS CITY (-6.5) at OAKLAND
Kansas City is reeling a little bit, but it's nothing a nice trip to Oakland won't cure. As always, follow the rules and bet against the Raiders. PICK: Chiefs

CHICAGO (-4.5) at DETROIT
Chicago doesn't need the game, which explains the low spread. But guess what. Detroit doesn't need it either (especially if they want Brady Quinn). PICK: Bears

SAINT LOUIS (-2) vs. WASHINGTON
The Redskins won a week ago at New Orleans in an emotional, tough environment. In the process, they spoiled the Saints party. I don't want to get fooled into thinking they've suddenly "found" something that wasn't there all season, but I've never been a really big believer in Saint Louis either. I'm not supremely confident here, but the Rams haven't impressed me enough to beat a real team this late in the year. PICK: Redskins

ATLANTA (Off) vs. CAROLINA
Amazingly enough, the Falcons without Vick are nowhere near as bad as the Panthers without Delhomme. So even if neither guy plays, I still like Atlanta to take this one and remove Carolina from the playoff picture once and for all (and deliver a near death blow to the Giants). PICK: Falcons

JACKSONVILLE (-3) vs. NEW ENGLAND
So the Jaguars are desperate for a victory, and get to face a team that they match up well with. Most people assume the Jaguars are still a good quality football team, and won't lose twice in a row in such key games. They're even favored against one of the best teams in the league simply because they're home. So it all shapes up for a Jacksonville victory against a team that has been equally inconsistent. So do I even have to write who I'm picking here? PICK: Patriots

BUFFALO (-4.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Ahh, the battle of teams I have continuously disrespected for no apparent reason. At least I've come around on Tennessee in recent weeks. I've been dogging the Bills since the preseason and have never actually warmed up to them. I don't know what it is either. You know how some teams are just missing "something"? The Bills are missing a lot of it. They're like the Christina Ricci of the NFL. The parts seem good enough, but when you take it as a whole it's just kinda blah. The Titans, on the other hand, are Fergie. There's nothing really spectacular going on there, but that one thing that stands out really forces you to take notice. And yes, I just compared Vince Young to the butt of a Black Eyed Pea. And if you got that last reference, then chances are good that you're probably between 15-50 years old. David/Joe, I believe that's what we call "demographic success". As for the game in question, I like Casper's friend to take care of business against her lovely lady lump. CHECK IT OUUUUUUT! PICK: Bills

INDIANAPOLIS (-9) at HOUSTON
The Colts are still playing meaningful games? Check.
The Texans are still the Texans? Check.
PICK: Colts

CLEVELAND (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY
God help you if you care at all about this game. I guess the only question is how many people will actually watch this game? Six? Seven? I mean, think about this. They're both finished, so the playoffs are out of question. As far as fantasy players going, there might be a couple of guys who have Braylon Edwards or want to run Kellen Winslow out there or something. But even those guys likely have better and more crucial players to watch than those two. Which leaves us with actual fans of the team. No wait, check that. Fans of the team who can still stomach watching Tim Rattay and Derek Anderson play QB. I don't have a point to all this either. Just pointing out the obvious so that maybe you won't notice I have no analysis for the game. PICK: Browns

SAN FRANCISCO (-4) vs. ARIZONA
Before we get too hyped up about the Niners being the team that just beat Seattle, let's first remind ourselves that they're also the team that lost to Saint Louis and Green Bay over a three week span just prior to the win. Wait a minute, what am I saying? The Cardinals are the team that lost to everyone! PICK: Niners

DENVER (-3) vs. CINCINNATI
In this week's installment of "who is the latest team to be anointed as great", we have the Broncos. Who are apparently all the way back because they beat the mighty Cardinals. And in the other corner, we have the newly-crowned "team that stinks because they lost one freakin game" in the Bengals. Seriously, if this game was played a week ago the Bengals would be all over Denver in everyone's minds. So now that these teams squared off against opponents at the complete opposite end of the spectrum, that means the whole world has changed? No sir. PICK: Bengals

DALLAS (-7) vs. PHILADELPHIA
Seven points does seem a bit much considering how well the Eagles are playing. But I can't jump ship now and acknowledge that they might actually be a good team. No, I'm stubbornly remaining firm in my assertion that they aren't any good dammit! The last time these two hooked up, the Cowboys were a bad Drew Bledsoe pass from possibly sending the game into overtime. With Tony Romo around, there might not be so many bad passes. Then again, the Eagles have also upgraded their passer position by going to Jeff Garcia. Wait a minute…did he just say…?

Don't worry, it shouldn't be noticeable. Like I said, seven is a bit much for this. I'd like to see it at around four or so and I'm not in love with giving up this many points, but I believe the Cowboys will win the game outright and I'm not about to box myself into a six point block of points for them to do it in. PICK: Cowboys

MIAMI (-2.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
The Jets are the better team, really they are. And they have no reason to not go out and win these last two against the Dolphins and Raiders. But I just know far too many arrogant Jets fans for this to work out well for them. I'm going against my better instincts here and picking the Jets to actually win this week's game. Reason? Because it'll be a far more painful loss to drop one against the Raiders in Week 17 when that's all that stands between you and a playoff berth. So I'll hold on for one more here, and then watch the world crumble beneath the feet of Jet fans everywhere in Week 17. PICK: Jets

BEST BETS

GREEN BAY (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
Everyone knows by now that Green Bay isn't a very good team, nor is Minnesota. Everyone knows that this isn't REALLY Favre's last home game. Everyone also knows that Green Bay's defense is less than stellar, and if anyone can allow Tarvaris Jackson to play like a stud it's probably the Pack. That said, it's being hyped in Green Bay as potentially the final home game for arguably the greatest Packer of all, and all that stuff. Remember what happened the last time there was emotionally charged game for Favre's teammates to rally around him. Tomorrow is going to be a situation where his teammates will rally around him to the point of nausea, and I don't think it'll be pretty for the Vikes. PICK: Packers

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
It's amazing to me that the Giants can be favored against anyone at this point, and the poor performance a week ago by the Saints is likely an aberration. I've been big-time on the Giants for much of the season (too much of it), and it's time to back away from the cliff a little bit. Not only do I not see the Giants winning this game; I actually don't see it being a game in the fourth quarter. PICK: Saints

PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. BALTIMORE
OK, it's official. Everyone has gone insane. Because while the Steelers have been impressive with the winning lately and the playoff push and all that stuff, there is NO WAY they should be favored against the Ravens. I don't care if Billy Joe Tolliver is under center for Baltimore - they dominated the Steelers in just about every facet of the game the last time these teams played. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the impossible won't happen. I'm not saying there's NO chance for Pittsburgh to compete. And I'm not suggesting Baltimore will dominate again. It could be Bill Cowher's last game in Pittsburgh, which I suppose counts for something. But the line is in the wrong place. And when you see a three point swing on the wrong side of the ledger, you go the other way - duh. PICK: Ravens

SAN DIEGO (-4.5) at SEATTLE
If the Bills are Christina Ricci and the Titans are Fergie's butt, then the Chargers are a cross between Rachel Bilson of the OC and Emmanuelle Chriqui of Entourage. PICK: Chargers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Baltimore Ravens

LAST WEEK
OVERALL: 7-9 (44%)
BEST BETS: 4-0 (100%)
LOCK OF WEEK: 1-0
SEASON TOTALS
OVERALL: 104-113-7 (48%)
BEST BETS: 33-30-2 (52%)
LOCK OF WEEK: 11-4 (73%)