Posted 12/21 by Michael Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Let's get to the picks!
Source: Yahoo.com Pro Football Pick'em
KANSAS CITY (-6.5) at OAKLAND
Kansas City is reeling a little bit, but it's nothing a nice trip to Oakland
won't cure. As always, follow the rules and bet against the Raiders. PICK:
CHICAGO (-4.5) at DETROIT
Chicago doesn't need the game, which explains the low spread. But guess what.
Detroit doesn't need it either (especially if they want Brady Quinn). PICK:
SAINT LOUIS (-2) vs. WASHINGTON
The Redskins won a week ago at New Orleans in an emotional, tough environment.
In the process, they spoiled the Saints party. I don't want to get fooled into
thinking they've suddenly "found" something that wasn't there all
season, but I've never been a really big believer in Saint Louis either. I'm
not supremely confident here, but the Rams haven't impressed me enough to beat
a real team this late in the year. PICK: Redskins
ATLANTA (Off) vs. CAROLINA
Amazingly enough, the Falcons without Vick are nowhere near as bad as the Panthers
without Delhomme. So even if neither guy plays, I still like Atlanta to take
this one and remove Carolina from the playoff picture once and for all (and
deliver a near death blow to the Giants). PICK: Falcons
JACKSONVILLE (-3) vs. NEW ENGLAND
So the Jaguars are desperate for a victory, and get to face a team that they
match up well with. Most people assume the Jaguars are still a good quality
football team, and won't lose twice in a row in such key games. They're even
favored against one of the best teams in the league simply because they're home.
So it all shapes up for a Jacksonville victory against a team that has been
equally inconsistent. So do I even have to write who I'm picking here? PICK:
BUFFALO (-4.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Ahh, the battle of teams I have continuously disrespected for no apparent reason.
At least I've come around on Tennessee in recent weeks. I've been dogging the
Bills since the preseason and have never actually warmed up to them. I don't
know what it is either. You know how some teams are just missing "something"?
The Bills are missing a lot of it. They're like the Christina Ricci of the NFL.
The parts seem good enough, but when you take it as a whole it's just kinda
blah. The Titans, on the other hand, are Fergie. There's nothing really spectacular
going on there, but that one thing that stands out really forces you to take
notice. And yes, I just compared Vince Young to the butt of a Black Eyed Pea.
And if you got that last reference, then chances are good that you're probably
between 15-50 years old. David/Joe, I believe that's what we call "demographic
success". As for the game in question, I like Casper's friend to take care
of business against her lovely lady lump. CHECK IT OUUUUUUT! PICK: Bills
INDIANAPOLIS (-9) at HOUSTON
The Colts are still playing meaningful games? Check.
The Texans are still the Texans? Check.
CLEVELAND (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY
God help you if you care at all about this game. I guess the only question is
how many people will actually watch this game? Six? Seven? I mean, think about
this. They're both finished, so the playoffs are out of question. As far as
fantasy players going, there might be a couple of guys who have Braylon Edwards
or want to run Kellen Winslow out there or something. But even those guys likely
have better and more crucial players to watch than those two. Which leaves us
with actual fans of the team. No wait, check that. Fans of the team who can
still stomach watching Tim Rattay and Derek Anderson play QB. I don't have a
point to all this either. Just pointing out the obvious so that maybe you won't
notice I have no analysis for the game. PICK: Browns
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) vs. ARIZONA
Before we get too hyped up about the Niners being the team that just beat Seattle,
let's first remind ourselves that they're also the team that lost to Saint Louis
and Green Bay over a three week span just prior to the win. Wait a minute, what
am I saying? The Cardinals are the team that lost to everyone! PICK: Niners
DENVER (-3) vs. CINCINNATI
In this week's installment of "who is the latest team to be anointed as
great", we have the Broncos. Who are apparently all the way back because
they beat the mighty Cardinals. And in the other corner, we have the newly-crowned
"team that stinks because they lost one freakin game" in the Bengals.
Seriously, if this game was played a week ago the Bengals would be all over
Denver in everyone's minds. So now that these teams squared off against opponents
at the complete opposite end of the spectrum, that means the whole world has
changed? No sir. PICK: Bengals
DALLAS (-7) vs. PHILADELPHIA
Seven points does seem a bit much considering how well the Eagles are playing.
But I can't jump ship now and acknowledge that they might actually be a good
team. No, I'm stubbornly remaining firm in my assertion that they aren't any
good dammit! The last time these two hooked up, the Cowboys were a bad Drew
Bledsoe pass from possibly sending the game into overtime. With Tony Romo around,
there might not be so many bad passes. Then again, the Eagles have also upgraded
their passer position by going to Jeff Garcia. Wait a minute
did he just
Don't worry, it shouldn't be noticeable. Like I said, seven is a bit much for
this. I'd like to see it at around four or so and I'm not in love with giving
up this many points, but I believe the Cowboys will win the game outright and
I'm not about to box myself into a six point block of points for them to do
it in. PICK: Cowboys
MIAMI (-2.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
The Jets are the better team, really they are. And they have no reason to not
go out and win these last two against the Dolphins and Raiders. But I just know
far too many arrogant Jets fans for this to work out well for them. I'm going
against my better instincts here and picking the Jets to actually win this week's
game. Reason? Because it'll be a far more painful loss to drop one against the
Raiders in Week 17 when that's all that stands between you and a playoff berth.
So I'll hold on for one more here, and then watch the world crumble beneath
the feet of Jet fans everywhere in Week 17. PICK: Jets
GREEN BAY (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
Everyone knows by now that Green Bay isn't a very good team, nor is Minnesota.
Everyone knows that this isn't REALLY Favre's last home game. Everyone also
knows that Green Bay's defense is less than stellar, and if anyone can allow
Tarvaris Jackson to play like a stud it's probably the Pack. That said, it's
being hyped in Green Bay as potentially the final home game for arguably the
greatest Packer of all, and all that stuff. Remember what happened the last
time there was emotionally charged game for Favre's teammates to rally around
him. Tomorrow is going to be a situation where his teammates will rally around
him to the point of nausea, and I don't think it'll be pretty for the Vikes.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
It's amazing to me that the Giants can be favored against anyone at this point,
and the poor performance a week ago by the Saints is likely an aberration. I've
been big-time on the Giants for much of the season (too much of it), and it's
time to back away from the cliff a little bit. Not only do I not see the Giants
winning this game; I actually don't see it being a game in the fourth quarter.
PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. BALTIMORE
OK, it's official. Everyone has gone insane. Because while the Steelers have
been impressive with the winning lately and the playoff push and all that stuff,
there is NO WAY they should be favored against the Ravens. I don't care if Billy
Joe Tolliver is under center for Baltimore - they dominated the Steelers in
just about every facet of the game the last time these teams played. Now don't
get me wrong, I'm not saying the impossible won't happen. I'm not saying there's
NO chance for Pittsburgh to compete. And I'm not suggesting Baltimore will dominate
again. It could be Bill Cowher's last game in Pittsburgh, which I suppose counts
for something. But the line is in the wrong place. And when you see a three
point swing on the wrong side of the ledger, you go the other way - duh. PICK:
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) at SEATTLE
If the Bills are Christina Ricci and the Titans are Fergie's butt, then the
Chargers are a cross between Rachel Bilson of the OC and Emmanuelle Chriqui
of Entourage. PICK: Chargers
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Baltimore Ravens
- LAST WEEK
OVERALL: 7-9 (44%)
BEST BETS: 4-0 (100%)
LOCK OF WEEK: 1-0
- SEASON TOTALS
OVERALL: 104-113-7 (48%)
BEST BETS: 33-30-2 (52%)
LOCK OF WEEK: 11-4 (73%)