The last time we saw one another, I was finishing a glorious run of 9-2 in the NFL playoffs (losses listed before wins).

Okay, okay, so I didn't have such a great year.

It was, of course, the first time I'd been under .500 in three seasons. In fact, it was the first time I'd been under 55% in three seasons. Why do I bring that up? Because it's obvious that I'm grasping at whatever I can after my embarrassing performance of a year ago. It was as if no one cared that I strongly advised them to draft Carson Palmer and Larry Johnson (more grasping, even though it's true. Wow, that was a grasp within a grasp there!). All anyone cared about was my awful record. It got to the point where people thanked me for my picks, since they were so wrong that they took the complete opposite of what I said and ended up winning money. Hey, whatever works, right?

Well, I make no promises about this season. I'm going to keep at it the way I always have. Sure, I'm going to look at the matchups and I'm going to study trends. But unlike some bettors I'm actually going to get some sleep, and a lot of times my picks will come from the gut. Maybe along the way I'll crack a terrible joke or five. Hopefully make a little coin in the process. But in all honesty, I couldn't care less about how well I do or don't do in the Week 1 games. And why not? Because it's freakin football season again! And if you're the type of person who is going to let losing a couple of bucks get in the way of a pure love of the game, then you might not want to hang around this article too much longer (ok, that was my last grasp).

Let's get on with the picks, shall we?

Source: USA Today (Sportsbook)

MIAMI (Pk) at PITTSBURGH

There are about a zillion question marks in this game, not the least of which is the status of the two quarterbacks. Who'd have thought heading into last off-season that Culpepper, not Roethlisberger, would be the QB who's healthy enough to suit up for tonight's game? Not only that, the Steeler passing game as a whole will be interesting to watch between the health status of Hines Ward and the departure of Antwaan Randle El. Not to mention Jerome Bettis' retirement. This is a vastly different offense than the one that played in the Super Bowl. Oh yeah, and Charlie Batch is playing QB. The Steelers would almost have a built-in excuse if they come out and lay an egg this game. The Dolphins, meanwhile, travel to a hostile environment and hope to unveil their new look. They're got everything to play for, credibility especially, and I think they do enough on their way to a dynamite season. PICK: Dolphins

ATLANTA (+5) at CAROLINA

The Steve Smith factor plays a large part in this game. If you can somehow wait until getting definitive word on him, I'd suggest waiting to bet on this game. And if he DOES play, take the Panthers all the way to the bank. Yes, he's that much of a difference-maker. I'm one of those people who love Michael Vick this year, but I don't think he'll be able to do much against this beyond-stingy Panther defense. Now, if Smith cannot go, that changes things. The Falcons are no slouch defensively either, and they can easily disrupt a Panther offense that lacks its marquee guy. For now, I'll assume Smith is playing so my pick will lie with the home favorite. PICK: Panthers

BALTIMORE (+3) at TAMPA BAY

I'm not among those who believe Steve McNair was the missing piece in Baltimore. Is he better than Kyle Boller? Sure. But he alone isn't going to make the difference between playoff contender and Super Bowl contender. He couldn't do it in Tennessee with familiarity and youth still on his side, why will he do it in Baltimore? Meanwhile, the Ravens defense has been overrated for about 5 years now and I think it's about time we looked at that. Down in Tampa, all the pieces are in place for Gruden's offense to really take off, and we'll see the first signs of that this weekend. PICK: Bucs

BUFFALO (+9) at NEW ENGLAND

My official prediction is that Steven Gostkowski will hit field goals of 54, 49, and 53 yards to give the Pats a 9-0 lead. The Bills will score on a 97-yard TD to Lee Evans. The Pats will counter with a 72-yard TD to Ben Watson. And with a 15-7 lead, Gostkowski will miss an extra point that enables Buffalo to cover the spread. But on the ensuing last-gasp drive, J.P. Losman is safetied and the Pats win it 17-7. If none of this happens, it'll be forgotten by Week 2. But if it DOES happen, I get to call myself Genius Of the Earth until Week 8, minimum. PICK: Patriots

DENVER (-4) at SAINT LOUIS

I'm making my picks out of order, and this one is actually the last game I'm writing up. As I type right now, I still haven't made up my mind about which team I'm going with. On the one hand, I really don't think Denver is that much better than the Rams. On the other hand, I've gone with too many underdogs as it is. Eh, what the hell – it's Week 1. I'm not going to marry myself to the idea of picking an even number of favorites and dogs in the first week of the season. This is crazy week, where we get to find out exactly how wrong we are about everyone. Let's see what Linehan can do here before we make him a home dog. PICK: Rams

NEW ORLEANS (+3) at CLEVELAND

I don't care how bad the Saints have historically been. They added Drew Brees and Reggie Bush (i.e., winners), welcome back Deuce McAllister, and aren't as bad as people might think. Not to say they're good, but they can beat anyone on any given week. The Browns, on the other hand, are as bad as people think. PICK: Saints

NEW YORK JETS (+2.5) at TENNESSEE

It's a game only a mother could love, and we proved it. Our own Chase Stuart, an interview maven, sat down with Chad Pennington's wife last week for an in-depth discussion regarding the upcoming season. When asked what she thought of her husband's chances for this weekend's game, Mrs. Pennington said she didn't care because she would be watching the Chiefs/Bengals game.

And oh yeah – Chase got her number. PICK: Jets

PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) at HOUSTON

The Eagles are pretty good; the Texans are not. I wish I had some more in-depth analysis than that, but it's a bit of a hectic week for me and that's about all I got right now. PICK: Eagles

CHICAGO (-3.5) at GREEN BAY

I don't care how good the Bears defense looked last season or how bad the Packers have looked for almost two years now. I just can't justify laying 3.5 points with Rex Grossman in Lambeau Field, I just can't bring myself to do it. PICK: Packers

DALLAS (+2.5) at JACKSONVILLE

Dallas GETTING points in T.O.'s debut? Sign me up! PICK: Cowboys

SAN FRANCISCO (+7.5) at ARIZONA

I am actually CHOOSING to watch this game at 4:00 Sunday. I could be watching the other two, but believe it or not, Arizona/San Francisco is the most intriguing matchup of the day from a fantasy perspective for me. It's been awhile since we could say that, huh? I expect great improvements offensively from each of these clubs, with the additions of Edgerrin James to Arizona and Norv Turner to the Niners. Norv's dreads aren't quite as long or tight, but he gets the job done in the open field. I think his impact as new offensive coordinator means good things for Alex Smith and Antonio Bryant, and huge things for Frank Gore. So now that that's all out of the way, who do I like? Well, I figure it'll be something of an offensive show (I use the word offensive there as a homonym just in case I'm wrong about these two teams), and the game will never get too far away from either team. PICK: 49ers

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS

In what I think will be a Super Bowl preview (adding even more juice to the storylines), I think Manning the elder takes this one. That way, when Eli leads New York to a Super Bowl victory in February, the sting will be that much worse for Peyton knowing he won the heads-up matchup in September. (By the way, contrary to how it may come across, I do not hate Peyton Manning. But this has reached ridiculous proportions to the point where he's basically the A-Rod of football.) PICK: Colts

BEST BETS

CINCINNATI (+2.5) at KANSAS CITY

Carson Palmer is reborn, Herm Edwards is now coaching the Chiefs, Rudi Johnson is ready for a breakout year (yes, even for him), and oh yeah – Herm Edwards is coaching the Chiefs. PICK: Bengals

SEATTLE (-6.5) at DETROIT

Seattle is my pick for “disappointing team of 2006”, while the Lions are my pick for “breakout team of 2006”. So who do you think I'm going with? PICK: Lions

MINNESOTA (+4.5) at WASHINGTON

After this week, thousands of people will be wondering why they jumped off the Redskin bandwagon after four meaningless preseason games. They will show everyone exactly what they've been working on this off-season, and will put a stamp as one of the league's top teams. Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders are about to show you all what's what. PICK: Redskins

SAN DIEGO (-3) at OAKLAND

I could easily see the Raiders coming out firing on all cylinders, moving the ball up and down the field with relative ease…and the defense STILL giving up more yardage at a 2:1 ratio. PICK: Chargers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: San Diego Chargers (changed from Washington last-minute)