Michael Brown - Power Rankings

The rankings represent this man's opinion on who would win if each team played every other team in the league on a neutral setting. I take into consideration record, strength of schedule, quality of victory, and my own personal expectation of the team. These rankings are not, I repeat are NOT, a tool to measure the records of each team. That's what standings are for. So if you see a 4-6 team ahead of a 6-4 team, it's simply because I think there was a certain amount of bad luck or flukiness to one of the team's outcomes.

The rankings are meant to be taken in fun, and spark debate. I particularly enjoy hearing from readers about where they think I may have messed up, and in many cases I will go back and revise something based on new information that is brought to me.

Now that the disclaimers and fine print are out of the way, let's get on with the business at hand.

Some people have questioned how I could possibly rank the Steelers fifth coming off a Super Bowl win. Now, you might be saying to yourself, how could people question you already when this is the first article of the season? If you are asking yourself that question, please stop reading this right now because you're far too intelligent for a column of this ilk. Now, the ones who have questioned that are friends and relatives of mine who are Steeler fans. It is downright shocking that Pittsburgh doesn't enter the year at #1. After all, they just won right? Well, if I were basing my rankings simply on last year's order of finish, then the rankings would pretty much make themselves, no? Keep in mind, the University of Texas will not enter the season as #1 – that goes to Ohio State. The University of Florida isn't going to be the #1-ranked hoops team, either. (Especially since UNC is going to win it all again, but that's for another day). My point is, things change during the off-season. What if Ben Roethlisberger's injuries on the bike kept him out of action this year – should I still rank them 1^st with Charlie Batch at QB? If your answer to that question is yes, then go join the people who left earlier because you're far too dumb to be in here.

So ok, Big Ben didn't die. But Jerome Bettis retired. And Antwaan Randle El left town (and I'm not sure they win the Super Bowl last year without those two, I might add). And Bill Cowher may be retiring at year's end. And Santonio Holmes is catching up for lost time on Chris Henry. And Roethlisberger did recently undergo an emergency appendectomy that will keep him out of one week, possibly two. All I'm saying is, just because something seems cut and dried on the surface, it isn't always the case. But you knew that already.

Let's face it, heading into last off-season, most observers didn't see the Steelers running the table on the road against some very very good team. They did it, and I give them all the credit in the world. But I can't let that cloud my judgment for 2006. I think this year with be a Giants year. It's the only way Peyton Manning's reputation can fall further is to lose to his brother in the biggest game of each of their lives. This Sunday night will provide a preview of bigger and better things to come, at least I hope. Then in the next commercial where they walk through the ESPN hallways, Peyton can pull out a shank or hit his bro in the back of the head with a wrench. Now THAT would make for some high comedy!

At the bottom of the rankings you will find my predictions and some commentary on each division this season. Perhaps that will shed some more light on why I made the picks I did. Or perhaps it will just serve to reinforce the notion that I'm a complete moron. Eh, either way.

Disagree with anything you see here? Feel free to send all questions/comments/complaints/death threats to: brown@footballguys.com. I won't be running a true mailbag as I did last season. I'd like to be able to quote Brick Tamland and say it's because too many people died last year, but unfortunately the real reason is that it didn't generate the interest I had expected. So basically this time around, if you write in with a complaint, you'll get on here – simple as that.

Now let's get on with it.

Rk Team Name Record (Prv.)

1. New York Giants 0-0 (-)

Watching the Giants last preseason game, Brandon Jacobs sure ran like the Giants' RB of the future. He simply refused to go down. When asked to comment, Lindsay Lohan called him a disgrace.

2. Carolina Panthers 0-0 (-)

Oh, so THAT'S what it looks like when 40,000 fantasy owners collectively vomit.

3. Indianapolis Colts 0-0 (-)

Peyton Manning might throw 40 touchdowns this season, but not having Edgerrin James is going to be a much bigger deal than people are talking about right now. As in, replica of the Arizona Cardinals 2005 rushing attack bad.

4. Cincinnati Bengals 0-0 (-)

I swear on last week's Prison Break, Schofield said something about Abruzzi being more badass than even Chris Henry. Oh wait I forgot, I'm the only person who watches Prison Break. Nevermind.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers 0-0 (-)

I read somewhere that when Santonio Holmes was little, he had posters of D.H. from Playmakers on his bedroom walls.

6. Miami Dolphins 0-0 (-)

The only thing that bothers me about Miami is that everyone seems to be on their bandwagon. That's usually scary.

7. San Diego Chargers 0-0 (-)

They were one of the league's elite teams for quite some time last year before fading down the stretch. This off-season, they upgraded from Drew Brees to Philip Rivers so I see no reason to downgrade them whatsoever.

8. Washington Redskins 0-0 (-)

All of the people panicking because of the Redskins poor showing offensively this preseason need to go back and watch the tape of their first preseason under Steve Spurrier. Now I'm not one of those who believe preseason means nothing, but I'm going to put my faith in the system over a couple of scrimmage games. The Redskins will not only be fine, they'll be excellent.

9. New England Patriots 0-0 (-)

He's my favorite football player ever, but Junior Seau really needs to think about changing his name to Senior Seau. You see what I did there? I took his nickname, and changed it, and hilarity ensued.

10. Dallas Cowboys 0-0 (-)

Hey, I hope you guys still have Billy Cundiff's number. Because even though it's preseason, Mike Vanderjagt really looks like football's version of Brad Lidge.

11. Atlanta Falcons 0-0 (-)

If Michael Vick doesn't “get it” this year, my belief in him long-term will definitely wane. But I have a feeling he will get it. And he will run. And he will win many a fantasy team's league.

12. Tampa Bay Bucs 0-0 (-)

Kudos to David Boston for making the Tampa Bay Bucs roster. No, no David - I said KUDOS! NOT anabolic steroids injected into your face!

13. Denver Broncos 0-0 (-)

I heard that prior to the last preseason game, Mike Shanahan took Tatum Bell aside and gave him an impassioned pet talk to motivate him. I personally think the talk was just a ploy to motivate Tatum Bell.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars 0-0 (-)

I'm not suggesting that Jack Del Rio works too hard – just that it sometimes appears as if he hasn't slept in oh, about 47 days.

15. Philadelphia Eagles 0-0 (-)

Meet the best last-place team in the NFL. A .500 record is not out of the equation.

16. Arizona Cardinals 0-0 (-)

I'd like to congratulate Matt Leinart on becoming a dad. Very few people know this, but he actually thought he and Paris Hilton were going to have a baby last fall. As it turned out, she actually had an 8 pound, 11 ounce herpes sore.

17. Seattle Seahawks 0-0 (-)

Banged-up receivers, loss of a stud lineman, coming off a Super Bowl loss, Madden cover jinx. Yup, it's pretty well set in stone that Seattle is in for double digit losses this year.

18. Detroit Lions 0-0 (-)

Yes, I'm a believer in the Lions. Not a huge believer in them winning the division, but this is basically by default.

19. Chicago Bears 0-0 (-)

I know the Bears are everyone's team to take the division and no one else has even a remote chance to overtake them. Right, and we all remember that this is the NFL and not WWE right?

20. Baltimore Ravens 0-0 (-)

That's right, I had an entire off-season to come up with something witty and yet here I am with nothing to say about this team.

21. Kansas City Chiefs 0-0 (-)

Pssst – hey listen up, I got a secret for you. The Chiefs offense this summer has looked an awful lot like what the Jets used to run under Herm Edwards. Just sayin.

22. Saint Louis Rams 0-0 (-)

Linehan may not throw the ball as much as Martz, but he'll throw it just as effectively.

23. Minnesota Vikings 0-0 (-)

Brad Johnson would be really good, except for the fact that he's not.

24. New Orleans Saints 0-0 (-)

3.4 versus 8.9...coming off a torn ACL versus coming off the #2 pick in the draft and a monster contract...doesn't catch the ball versus catches the ball better than many receivers...tell me again, who is going to get the touches in New Orleans? Yes I know, the college game is different from the pros. Guess what – it's not 5.5 yards per carry different. Methinks there will be many a fantasy player eating crow regarding Reggie Bush. It's the Michael Vick effect. He was so incredibly hyped coming out of college that there was a hype backlash and it almost became en vogue to rip him. But people forget – he IS the #2 pick and an electric player! I mean...it's freakin' Reggie Bush!

25. Oakland Raiders 0-0 (-)

Most of you are familiar with the voice of legendary NFL films voiceover man John Facenda. He can make pretty much anything sound cool or important. For example, imagine him reciting the following: “The autumn wind is a Raider...a quarterback who doesn't care whether he ever wins a game, so long as he's paid...a running back who mashes defenses with speed and agility but doesn't care to learn the playbook...a receiving corps so deep and talented that they can afford to trade away legendary Doug Gabriel and not miss a beat...a defense so brittle and defenseless so as to render it pointless.” Oooh, don't you just FEEL the chills!

26. Houston Texans 0-0 (-)

Count me among the minority of people who think it was actually smart to pass on Reggie Bush. Then again, I sniff a lot of glue and wear my underwear on the outside.

27. New York Jets 0-0 (-)

Did Chad Pennington really “win” the starting QB gig? Or was it just that he sucked a little bit less than the other guys?

28. San Francisco 49ers 0-0 (-)

There's this one guy at work who's a big Niners fan...so we laugh at him.

29. Green Bay Packers 0-0 (-)

In two separate 10-team drafts this week (14 rounds and 16 rounds), Brett Favre went undrafted in both. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

For the record, my QBs in one league are Carson Palmer and Jake Delhomme; Michael Vick, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Plummer in the other.

30. Tennessee Titans 0-0 (-)

Yes, teams who sign their starting quarterback 8 days before opening day usually end up having very successful seasons.

31. Cleveland Browns 0-0 (-)

Know how I know you're bad? Because your starting QB is Charlie Frye.

32. Buffalo Bills 0-0 (-)

Know how I know you're bad? Your quarterback is J.P. Losman.

NFL PREDICTIONS (Playoff teams in bold)

AFC

EAST

1. Miami Dolphins

2. New England Patriots WC

3. New York Jets

4. Buffalo Bills

As mentioned above, my only concern here is that Miami is everyone's sexy pick to win the division and play deep into January. Of course, if I really wanted to be my own man I'd pick the Bills. I think Miami is as talented as any team in the division, and based on what I saw from them in the second half of 2005, they appear to be a team ready to make a run. A lot hinges on Daunte Culpepper's knee, but he looks sound. Their skill position guys are as good as anyone's, and their schedule is pretty favorable. I see at least ten wins for them, possibly eleven. New England will miss Deion Branch, though Ben Watson will pick up a lot of the slack. And obviously the running game will be rejuvenated with the addition of Maroney. Let's just hope for their sake that Belichik realizes this sooner rather than later. The Jets are an easy team to pick on because of how bad they are, but, I mean, hmmm...where was I going with this? Anyway, the Bills are putrid and won't sniff the playoffs this year. How can I say that with such conviction? Say it with me: LOSS-MAN!

NORTH

1. Cincinnati Bengals

2. Pittsburgh Steelers WC

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. Cleveland Browns

I was dangerously close to picking the Steelers to miss the playoffs, but I can't knock the defending champs THAT far down. I think this division will be a two-horse race...for second. I think the Bengals are far ahead of the Ravens and Steelers, and the Browns are far behind. But Baltimore and Pittsburgh, despite being very far apart in my rankings, could conceivably get much closer. If Roethlisberger's appendectomy sidelines him for Week 2, that's already 1/8 of his season gone. Also, keep in mind that a lot of things broke right just for the Steelers to get IN last year, and you can begin to see why I might be leery of assuming a return to the throne.

SOUTH

1. Indianapolis Colts

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

3. Houston Texans

4. Tennessee Titans

Yawn, it seems to happen every year now. The Colts are the obvious preseason favorites, everyone overrates the Jaguars, and the bottom two are the bottom two. By the way, the Titans will finish only one spot below the Texans, but the two teams will be worlds apart as far as how good they look week-in, week-out. Jeff Fisher is probably on his way out after this year, and the Titans could be in a few years of trouble here. Meanwhile, the Texans are on the upswing even if David Carr DOES suck. I'm a big believer in Kubiak, and I'm convinced he was unwittingly administered large doses of crack the week leading up to the draft and had no knowledge of anything going on.

WEST

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Denver Broncos

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Oakland Raiders

I almost didn't pick them. I almost went with Denver. But it dawned on me that this Charger defense could actually be good. VERY good. I know some are down on them because of the pass defense a year ago, but the issue was with the DBs not up front. Now I realize they didn't go out and add world-beaters, but I do expect a continued improvement. And for some reason, the addition of Javon Walker coming off a torn ACL and Rod Smith turning another year older don't scare me as much as they maybe should. Don't forget about how good this Charger team was a year ago. They won't have to face 72 consecutive teams coming off their bye weeks this time around, and despite suggestions to the contrary, Drew Brees (well-liked though he may be) did not have a great season a year ago. Rivers is an upgrade, should help push the offense into the league's very elite. As for Denver, something appears to be missing this year. I can't quite put my finger on it, and I'm sorry for those of you who think I'm leading up to a bad joke – I'm not. I just really don't know what it is, but they aren't scaring me this time. Kansas City? Well, they're coached by Herm Edwards. They'll be plenty motivated, they'll be fired up, they'll go all-out on Sundays. And then they'll lose when Edwards is called for a loss-clinching penalty when he runs out to midfield to shake hands with Mike Shanahan despite there being 6:52 left to play in the third quarter. The Raiders signed Jeff George, and only because they thought Y.A. Tittle was already dead.

NFC

EAST

1. New York Giants

2. Washington Redskins WC

3. Dallas Cowboys

4. Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL's best division looks to return to its mid-1980's roots this season, as the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys battle it out for division supremacy. And in the spirit of the mid-80's, Bill Parcells has decided he's going to bleach his hair blonde, wear ripped sweatshirts with Zubaz, and walk around quoting Rocky IV all day. It's going to be a BIG stretch for him, but I think he can manage. As for the games on the field, Joe Gibbs will have both sides of the football flying high and will restore the offensive explosion we got used to seeing from him during the 80's, but Tom Coughlin's bunch will prove to be just more talented. The Giants have gone from bottom-feeder to one of the league's very elite teams in a very short period of time. Since Coughlin is their head coach, that means any day now his ego is going to spiral out of control and cost him his job, and the Giants will be set back about 4-5 years because of it. But DAMN if they won't be terrific in '06! And the only reason I don't see Dallas beating out a clearly inferior Atlanta team for the last wild card spot? A brutal Dallas schedule with a paltry TWO (three at most) easy home games will do them in.

NORTH

1. Detroit Lions

2. Chicago Bears

3. Minnesota Vikings

4. Green Bay Packers

Boy, am I going out on a limb. I mean, can you even remember the last time a team from the NFC North went 5-11 one year and then won the division title the very next season? Oh wait that's right, it was last year when the Bears did it. A couple of people will call me crazy for suggesting this is even remotely possible, but I just see the Lions as a team on the upswing. Perhaps I'm putting too much stock into Mike Martz. Perhaps I'm not giving Lovie Smith's defense enough credit. But I don't see Minnesota's offense or Green Bay's defense as anything special, and I don't see the Bears defense playing THAT well again. Plus their offense is pretty much garbage. Which leaves me with Detroit by default. I say 9-7 with a tiebreaker gets it done.

SOUTH

1. Carolina Panthers

2. Atlanta Falcons WC

3. Tampa Bay Bucs

4. New Orleans Saints

For awhile, the Panthers were my Super Bowl pick. I loved the addition of Keyshawn Johnson and the drafting of DeAngelo Williams, and I felt they were ready to take the next step. Then I decided the Giants defense was just as good, the offense was just as good, and Tiki Barber is setting us all up for him to be this year's Jerome Bettis. In fact, I'll go so far as to predict that Barber will fumble the ball at the 1-yard line just as the Giants are going in for the game-clinching TD but it was be returned by a recently-stabbed Dan Morgan to midfield. Once there, Jake Delhomme's head will explode from excitement, forcing Chris Weinke into the game. He will fail to get the job done, and Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson will team up to murder Weinke simply by glaring at him afterwards. I may not be accurate, but I'm certainly specific with my projections! As for the rest of the division, I see the Bucs taking a step back with a tough schedule and a somewhat overhyped defense. The Saints could have problems if Drew Brees continues suffering from Chad Pennington disease (though Reggie Bush owners would love it if Brees can't throw more than 8-10 yards at a time). And the Falcons, despite some moments of brilliance from Michael Vick, won't have quite enough to overtake Carolina but will still sneak into the playoffs as a wild card entry.

WEST

1. Arizona Cardinals

2. Seattle Seahawks

3. Saint Louis Rams

4. San Francisco 49ers

Go ahead and blast me for not picking Seattle to win this horrid division. Then go check the records for the 2005 Eagles, 2004 Panthers, 2003 Raiders, 2002 Rams, and 2001 Giants. That's right, only one of the last five Super Bowl losers managed to make the playoffs the following season. And that one, the 2002 Rams, went 9-7 and lost to the Saints. Lost to the Saints! In the playoffs! Do you even realize what that was like at that time? The Saints winning a playoff game would be like beating Kevin Federline in a “who can turn their ridiculously hot wife into a tub of goo faster” contest. So my point is, Kevin Federline is obviously completely awesome. And my OTHER point is, loser of the Super Bowl (for various reasons) has an extremely tough time the year after. Seattle is set up with several key points against them, perhaps most noteworthy being Mike Holmgren's inability to let the Super Bowl loss go. He's still yapping about it weeks and months after the fact. No offense to Seahawks fans who feel they were wronged, but guess what – it's time to move on now. The calls weren't great, but didn't cost the Super Bowl. Giving up the longest run in Super Bowl history AND a WR option touchdown pass in the same game pretty much did that. It was good talk show fodder for about five minutes, and we all moved past it. Call me crazy, but did anyone see the Eagles folding up and crashing hard last year? The Panthers the year before? The Raiders and their unstoppable offense? No, no, and a resounding no. So it should be appreciated that I'm even giving them second, but that has more to do with the horrible division than anything. I can easily see Arizona winning it at 9-7, followed by an 8-8 (or worse) Seattle team, and the bottom-feeders losing a combined 22-25 games in some combo.

PLAYOFFS

AFC

1. Indianapolis Colts

2. Cincinnati Bengals

3. Miami Dolphins

4. San Diego Chargers

5. New England Patriots

6. Pittsburgh Steelers

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Indianapolis over Miami

NFC

1. New York Giants

2. Carolina Panthers

3. Detroit Lions

4. Arizona Cardinals

5. Washington Redskins

6. Atlanta Falcons

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME – New York over Carolina

SUPER BOWL – New York over Indianapolis