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Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", a new column here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues. I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary. Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks to midseason up until the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading. Here we are in Week 7 in the second of two horrific Bye Week Scenarios, as SIX TEAMS are off rather than the usual four. That's right, New England, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Green Bay, Minnesota and Cleveland are all back, but now we have Chicago, San Francisco, Baltimore, New Orleans and Tennessee are all off. Okay, okay - insert the joke about the Titans being off every week here - but don't tell the Redskins that. But seriously, we know that this imbalance on the schedule favors trading, if you know how to take advantage. Once again, the byes are taking out almost 20% of all the available talent in the NFL, so some teams will be scrambling to not only be competitive but in some cases to just even field a lineup. There will likely be an owner out there who thinks he was really smart to grab Marques Colston and Bernard Berrian off the waiver wire early, but maybe he forgot to check their byes, for example. The desperation to be competitive this week will inspire some good trade bargains, and it is up to savvy owners to find these situations and make good deals. So once again, as always, you have to remain active in the trading marketplace. We have a lot of owners who are doing just that, so let's delve into some of their questions. Once again as for the format, the questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome (as long as they follow the format outlined below), but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended. For Example Team / league specific question: "I can keep three players. I have Tiki Barber, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Terrell Owens. Who do you recommend?" The better way to generalize the question, yet still get your answer: "I have three Top 10 running backs (Barber, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson) and a Top 10 WR (Terrell Owens), but I can only keep three. Is it better to keep three running backs, or should I keep a top shelf WR and two backs?" I would request that you include the following regarding your trade questions:
Let's get to some trade talks. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here:
So let's get to it. Our first question is a first for Trader Joe's, and a first for the Footballguys.com forums as well. "Firestorm" posted for the very first time, and he chose Trader Joe's as his place to debut. Let's take a look: Question 1: Hey Jeff: This is my first post in any of the forums. I've been reading the weekly "Trader Joe's" articles and getting a lot out of them, so I thought I'd try it out. I'm not really sure how to even post my question, so hopefully this works. I'm in a brand new, 12 team redraft league, with a mix of "newbies" and seasoned GM's. 16 player rosters, with 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 K's, and 2 D/STs required at all times, no flexibility. 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DST starting. Scoring is basically standard: 4 pts passing TDs, 6 Rushing/receiving, 1 pt/25 yds passing, 1 pt/10 yds rushing/receiving, -2 interception, -2 lost fumble. For the defensive scoring (which we may tweak next year), it has turned out that the "elite" defensive units are raking in the points. The Ravens and Bears have scored 96 pts through week 5 in our league. Scoring is basically sliding scale for points allowed (10 pts for shutout, 6 pts for 2-7 allowed, etc), rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed. Possible Fantasy points ranges from 10 to -10 for those categories. In addition, 2pts/sack/interception/fumble recovered and 6pts for TD. To give you some perspective, the Ravens or Bears (and a few others) have scored as much as 25-30pts in a game for their respective owners. My team started slow, but I've since won 3 straight and now lead my division at 3-2. Due to a bit of a mistake I made in my draft where I missed my targeted QB, I ended up going heavy on the RBs and built much greater depth at the position than any other owner. I figured I'd move an RB to fill in my need later in the season. I figured that need would be at QB, since I ended up with Kitna and Simms. I dumped Simms even before the injury and picked up Pennington. I've now been pleasantly surprised by Kitna's production, but getting nervous about Pennington. My problem is I'm not really sure if my greatest need is QB or DST. I've taken on the goal of targeting a top D, while upgrading at QB at the same time. I'd love the Ravens or Bears, but have determined that the Ravens are probably off-limits. I'm also considering the Steelers, for reasons below. My Roster
Team A
Team B
Both these teams have need at RB - Team B desperately so. What Team B does have is the top two QBs in the league. He's ready to move one of them, and frankly I don't care which one I'd get, but I think he'd actually give up McNabb. I've offered D Foster, Pennington, and the Rams for McNabb, Bell, and the Steelers. At the same time, I've discussed the same trade with Team A for Droughns, Brees, and the Bears. I view Brees as only a moderate upgrade at QB, but I'd get the Bears (and a more productive RB coming back to me). On the other hand, I think I'd get a solid D upgrade in the Steelers along with the number 1 or 2 QB, giving me a pretty formidable starting lineup with my WR choices. What do you think? Is McNabb or the Bears more valuable in this scenario, and have I offered the right RB? I slotted Foster as my 4th RB. If either owner won't bite, how far up do I go in the RB upgrade (in my mind Tiki is off limits, but who knows)? Thanks for your input! Normally I like to clean up a post for presentation purposes, but I decided to leave this one in its original form, just to show everyone that even your FIRST EVER post can be a solid one. Now for my response: Firestorm, Welcome to the boards and welcome to Trader Joe's!!! I'm honored that I'm your first post. Glad to have you here. Let's simplify this long (but solid post):
First off, let's talk defenses for a minute, something we rarely do. This year has been unique. Two of the Top 3 preseason defenses (Baltimore, Carolina, Chicago) have been stellar and are really crushing their opponents. The way it is SUPPOSED to go is that the teams that "reach" for defenses early get punished because (A) Defenses are random and (B) they get hurt at other positions (by not drafting depth early for their roster). That isn't happening, as you can see, for Ravens and Bears owners. Now, I will go out on a limb and say that while both of those defenses are likely to continue to play at a high level, there's nowhere to go but down in both performance and trade value. If you seek the Bears now, you are paying through the nose. What I like to do now is look at December schedules, as that dictates playoffs W's and L's. That is ultimately what we care about, so look NOW. The Rams actually have a good schedule (AZ, CHI, @OAK, WASH) Weeks 13-16, so I wouldn't want to trade them. I'm actually buying them right now. The Bears have an easy schedule too, but we covered their price tag issues. Pittsburgh has a good schedule (TB, CLE, @CAR, BAL) so I like buying them. Coupled with STL facing Oakland Week 15, I love that pairing. OK, so let's look more at Trade B. We get Pittsburgh Defense, McNabb and Mike Bell. Mike Bell's a throw-in with little value - but here's the good news. With 64 players rostered at RB (16 teams x 4 RBs), I bet a few diamonds are on the waiver wire. I take Trade B if he accepts and go with it. Drop Mike Bell for Brandon Jacobs (backing Tiki), M. Moore or a flyer like Leon Washington. Best of all, you have McNabb and Kitna for Week 9. If need be, I would escalate at RB to get the deal done to either Chester Taylor or FWP, but I would leave Tiki out of it. Good luck and I hope to hear from you again soon. Welcome yet again! OK, that was a long one, but I hope you stuck through it. Long or short, we talk about the trades and get you what you need to keep on rolling and dominating your league. Hopefully this helped Firestorm, and along the way you picked up a little value as well. Our second question comes from "lebowski": Question 2: OK, I'm struggling a little bit knowing what to do with my team right now. My league is a performance based league, no points per reception ("PPR"). We start 1QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1TE etc. Here is what I am wondering... My team
I feel this team really has potential, but hasn't hit its stride yet. That being said I think changes could be made. I was thinking of offering a trade to strengthen my team, the problem is I'm not convinced that it really strengthens my team. I'm thinking about offering Vick, Schaub, and the Chicago RB tandem for Losman (or maybe Culpepper and Harrington) and Steven Jackson. Another area I'm somewhat weak in right now is WR. So, here is the advice I would like... 1. Would you stay with this team as is and hope that it hits its stride (I'm 3-2 currently with the 2 losses coming on Tomlinson's bye and his dismal performance last week, however one of the wins was pure schedule luck) 2. Try to make the trade...it seems to strengthen your team even though it might make you a bit weak at QB. 3. Look to make a move elsewhere to strengthen your team? If this is your choice do you have any suggestions? Thanks...I'll hang up and just listen now. And I replied: Mr. Lebowski, welcome back....... I'm going to quote you here:
Do you see how Sentence 1 is completely opposite of Sentence 2??? That's your issue right there. You FEEL that this team will get better (and from that lineup, I would agree), but it hasn't happened. You're concerned. The clock on the wall is ticking and we're in Week 6. You need wins now. However, you shouldn't just trade for trading's sake. … Do yourself a favor, and I mention this for the benefit of everyone. WRITE YOUR THOUGHTS DOWN AS YOU ARE ABOUT TO TRADE. Go back and look at those thoughts a few days or weeks later. Do the same thing as for who you start or sit each week. Did it work out OK? Did it not? If not, were you thinking clearly or did you miss something. This is how we learn, grow, and get better folks. Good luck. (As for your team - stand pat.) I can't simplify my advice much more than "Write down your thoughts". It is simple, yet powerful. If you can look back and reflect upon what you were thinking, you will learn a lot about how you are as a fantasy football manager and trader. Now, not every trade will work out. I can pretty much guarantee that mistakes will be made. The question becomes one of did you miss something obvious beforehand, or were you not thinking clearly? If you had solid reasoning before the decision and things worked out fine, we rarely compliment ourselves. We tend to dwell on the negative. Here is a way to do that but reflect and learn from it in a meaningful way. If you are thinking the right thoughts before a decision, the outcome almost becomes irrelevant. Thinking clearly before a decision improves your rate of success without fail. Questions 3 and 4 are diametrically opposed, but highly relevant. The first comes in from "ramdes", and the second from "BigD". Let's take a look: Question 3: Jeff - thanks for the help last week. I'm 5-1, but worried about Brian Westbrook. He doesn't look like himself and I think the time to deal him is now that he's at least playing. 12 team, 2 player keeper league, standard scoring, start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, TE, K, D My team
My question is, if I deal Westbrook, who should I target?
Or should I just throw him out there and see what I get back? I also have bye week concerns coming up in Week 9 at RB. I'll be starting Willie Parker vs. Denver and Michael Turner vs. Cleveland unless I make a move. I was OK with that until Turner didn't get a carry yesterday in their blowout. That makes me nervous. Thanks for your help. My response to him was: Ramdes, Happy to help. Westbrook is a top notch guy this year - and who doesn't have issues? He's two weeks away from a bye that will get him additional rest. Granted I'm an Eagles fan, but who else are you going to rely on? DeAngelo Williams - love him, but he could be out a month at this point. Tatum Bell has inherent risk, but that's the best of the 3 options I like. I really feel Shaun Alexander is going to be out a while - more that people expect. As for being concerned for Week 9 - you're 5-1. One bad week at RB2 isn't going to kill you. I'd toss Westbrook's name out there to the league and see what comes back. However, I wouldn't necessarily be in a hurry to move him. Good luck. The bolded portion is the key here. He is 5-1, so by no means should one week or a bye be his guide towards making a trade. The team he had for the first six weeks was nearly perfect, so why trade? Take your chances with a lesser talent and don't worry about picking up a loss. It is a long season and you are trying to win a championship, which is more important than one regular season game. As a counterpoint to this argument, we have Question 4 from "BigD": Question 4: 10 team PPR Redraft League. Short story: The trade in question is Reggie Brown and DeAngelo Williams for Fred Taylor. (I get Brown/Williams). I would then have Tiki Barber, Tatum Bell, Laurence Maroney and Foster/Williams at RB. With Holt, Houshmandzadeh, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Brown and Antonio Bryant as my WRs Here's my thinking if interested: I'm 2-4 after scoring the most points this week and despite having the second most points in the entire league (only off by 12 points). I always seem to play everyone on their best week. (Needed to vent.) With Fitzgerald hurt, I have a tough situation in Week 7 with Torry Holt and Antonio Bryant on a bye. I picked up Bryant Johnson to fill in since he has a favorable Week 7 matchup at Oakland. I desperately need another win this week so I am considering making a trade to get a better WR fill in. The first place owner approached me because he has a similar situation with needing an RB fill in for Week 7. He wants Fred Taylor, but I would prefer to unload DeShaun Foster since Fred Taylor has the best schedule vs. the run for the remainder of the year. However, I'm not sure how Taylor will be used with Jones-Drew emerging. He said if I traded him Taylor, he would throw in DeAngelo Williams which is really not a huge selling point to me. I would rather trade him Foster than worry about that situation. His WRs are: Hines Ward, Reggie Brown, Chris Chambers, Roy Williams, Deion Branch, Braylon Edwards and Doug Gabriel. I don't think he would trade Roy Williams, and I'm not interested in Chambers or Gabriel at that price. He said he's willing to give me DeAngelo Williams plus Ward, Brown, Branch or Edwards for Fred Taylor. Should I go to battle with what I have since this is really only a one week fix, or should I trade Fred Taylor for Reggie Brown and DeAngelo Williams? My answer was: Hi BigD, Well laid out thoughts here and I can appreciate your dilemma. Since you vented, allow me for a moment. I'm also 2-4 in one of my leagues where I had the top score the first two weeks (2-0 start) then played the top scorer in the league 3 of the next 4 weeks. Ugly. So yes, it can and does happen, but you are doing the right thing in evaluating your team. It isn't bad by any stretch of the imagination, but you can't use Fred Taylor in the playoffs if you don't make the playoffs. I love Taylor for December too, but you need to get some wins. I don't like getting DeAngelo Williams here simply because he's not going to help you short term, which is what you really need. Why would you trade for a December prospect now when you have a better option in Taylor? I see (and share) your concern for Week 7, but you can start Barber, Foster and Tatum Bell (3RB) and go with two WRs for this week. That should be fine. Even going 3-wide with Reggie Brown, Hines Ward and Greg Jennings could get you a win. Does your opponent this week have trouble as well? If so, I say roll the dice and stand pat. If not, shop elsewhere for players that help you NOW, not later. Good luck. Generally speaking, wide receivers do not get handcuffed to the extent that running backs do in fantasy football. My The difference here for "BigD" is that while he is 2-4 and posting plenty of points, he cannot trade for the future or the playoffs. You simply cannot tool your team for December if you desperately need production in October and November. Only teams with 5-1 and 6-0 type records can afford that luxury. You have to focus on winning every week going forward, make the playoffs, and take your chances. Question five was the second of two questions from Casper05, who frequents Trader Joe's. We always encourage repeat visits. Here is a strategy question: Question 5: How do you value Defense in trading? The Baltimore owner has mentioned to me he'd part ways with them for Randy Moss and a RB of my choice (I have Frank Gore, Kevin Jones, Corey Dillon, Ahman Green, and Jamal Lewis)....which points-wise looks like a good deal, but I haven't even thought about upgrading defense...I'm playing defense by committee right now (picked up Arizona this morning). My other WRs are Marvin Harrison, Bernard Berrian, Reggie Brown, Jerricho Cotchery, and Deion Branch. So after dwelling on this subject, I wrote: Casper, Welcome back. Always good to see repeat contributors here at Trader Joe's. Glad to see you're catching on. Ultimately, the point of these talks are to make you a better trader, so getting Baltimore for a WR may have been a good idea and likely is. Hopefully I helped you along the way. How do I value defenses? That's tricky. There's no real script answer to say "Defenses are worth this...." Rather, I can go over how I figure out what to do for a defense. Scoring systems vary widely, but most include points for sacks, turnovers and scoring on defense or special teams. Then they start to diverge. Some leagues give points based on points against, but some leagues don't count the points unless the defense was on the field (such as a quarterback fumble for a touchdown doesn't count against the QBs team defense, as they were not scored on). Some give points on a sliding scale - most for a shutout - but that sliding scale changes from league to league. Some scales go negative for too many points against. Other leagues (and FBG) gives points for yardage against as well, using similar sliding scale techniques. Of course I'm in favor of giving a point for a punt forced and two for a stop on fourth down, but that's another conversation. So what do you do? Well, if your defenses get most of their points from sacks, you might want a team like Philadelphia. If they get more from turnovers, ball hawks like Cincinnati were gold last year and St. Louis is this season. Also, if a lot of the points (on a percentage basis) for a defense are coming from semi-random events like touchdowns, it is really hard to predict. So how do I figure all that out? First, I start by using the Draft Dominator and plugging in my scoring system for that league and see what team is projected as the #1 defense for the coming year (this preseason it was usually Carolina, Chicago or Baltimore). Then, I completely disregard who that team is, but then I use the score rather than the team as my metric to compare against other roster spots. For example, if the #1 team was Carolina and they were going to get 160 points this year, I'd shoot for getting about 10 Points Per Game (PPG) from my defense this year. Then I would compare that 10 PPG against the #36 WR for example (WR3 in a 12-team league, worst case - last starter comparison) and see if that was about right. That's how I would value a defense entering in the draft. I also look at how the points are derived. If the scoring
system favors sacks So I know you want to know - who am I targeting? Excluding some of the obvious choices, I like Minnesota, St. Louis, and Kansas City. Denver isn't so bad either, nor is Cleveland or SF. You can make a pretty good committee here that would have great matchups by targeting two lesser defenses now. Not much more to reflect on, but sometimes the little things do matter. Many just slough off the defensive teams, but at some point they can win you a championship. Just ask Neil Rackers owners last year about how insignificant a kicker can be. For more of my thoughts and opinions on quarterbacks for the remainder of the season, check out The Audible, the Footballguys Podcast, this week. Our final question this week comes from "gheemony" this week and is regarding a Salary Cap league: Question 6: Specific trade advice for a 12-team keeper league with a salary cap and long-term contracts. If a player is signed to a long-term deal and you cut him, half of the salaries for all future years are accelerated against this year's cap. I am thinking of ditching this season for next year. Listed are the players being traded, their current year cap hit, and any long-term contracts and salaries. Overall cap is 120.0. Minimum salary for QB, RB, WR is 4.0 and for TE, K, D is 2.0. The offer:
Burleson is a deal-killer for me. 15% of my cap tied up in dead-weight is unacceptable. But the offer suggests to me that the owner has really soured on Culpepper and Jordan and they are available. Is it worth reworking the deal to get them, or am I saddling myself with more deadweight? Before the season started, the consensus was that their salaries were very reasonable. For reference, Culpepper once fetched $28 and Manning is at $22 this season and Brady is at $15. As for RBs, LT and LJ are at $38, Portis at $28, Rudi at $22, Jamal Lewis at $27 (bad signing last year), Dillon $25 (another bad signing). So $21 for a #1 QB and #1 RB is a deal. But there are questions whether you get Culpepper of '05 or of '04. Is he healthy? Is Miami the right place? Will he ever get his job back? And will Jordan rebound? Will Oakland hire a real coach and Off. Coordinator? Will they install a real offense? If you think those guys are worth the risk at the price, I can try to shift off some deadweight contracts back, such as: Derrick Mason (9.60 next season), Droughns (7.6 next season), and Tony G (6.00 next two seasons). I can also keep Delhomme and try to offer back Favre (likely to be $10 next season, but not penalty to cut), or Roethlisberger ($4.3 for next two seasons). My overall roster
Sorry, it's complicated, but any insight is appreciated. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 RB/WR, 2 WR, 1 WR/TE, 1 TE Again I did not truncate this post. I found most of the information useful, but overall only the bolded sections were really relevant for me: Hi gheemony, Yeah, that's complicated all right. I'll try and dumb it down for everyone's benefit. You see an owner willing to trade LaMont Jordan and Daunte Culpepper, and wonder if they are worth their cap number next year? Is that the crux of the matter? That's how I read it, so that's where I'm going to direct my answer. Jordan is basically $13 for next year, about a third of Tomlinson or Larry Johnson. I'd say that is worth it. Culpepper is under $9 for next year, but you have Delhomme for $5 and Big Ben for $4. So the question I pose back to you - if Delhomme and Big Ben are that cheap, can you afford to gamble and miss on Culpepper? If so, is it worth that risk? Would a 2004 Culpepper make a big difference? If you can fit in a risk like that for next season, I would think you take the shot. That's furthered by having two starters that are solid backups if he fails. Jordan at $13 would help you with McGahee ($10) and Droughns ($8) next year, rounding up. I would say that you should go for both players and take the risk. The reward may pay handsomely. Good luck. Sometimes reducing the questions down to the most basic elements can shine a lot of light on the subject. Do you like the players? Are they worth it for the price you have to pay? Will they contribute to your team - and is it just now and then, or is it every week? So that will do it for the Week 7 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's. References: Trader Joe’s from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com. The Draft
Pick Calculator, written by David Dodds. The Dynasty
Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino. First introduced here. Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino. |
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