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Prime Number Drafting
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Posted 8/2 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Today is the day - Draft Day. You've prepped all offseason - you know who you
are picking in the first round. It doesn't matter what draft spot you get tonight,
because you are tuned in and you have read everything on Footballguys.com about
Steven Jackson, LaMont Jordan, Shaun Alexander, and Ronnie Brown. You have your
stud running backs ranked from 1 to 12 and you are set to go once the draft
order is announced. Bring on the draft!
Pssst. Did you remember that you have 19 more rounds to go?
Wow, did you forget about the rest of the draft? Are you too focused on which
stud running back to take first that you haven't had a chance to run a mock
draft and see who to take next?
Well, maybe this is not a good description of you. You have already run 20-30
mock drafts and you know who goes in which round this year. You know your ADPs
better than your ABCs. You have a list of 40-50 guys to target and two dozen
different sleepers that are begging to be picked for your team. But wait - is
that too many? How am I going to get all that talent on my roster?
OK - don't panic. I got you covered. It is called Prime Number Drafting.
What is Prime Number Drafting?
Prime Number Drafting is a way to break down the draft into milestones.
These milestones mark steps along the path to a dominant fantasy football franchise.
This method of breaking down your draft gives you several opportunities to
look back at your team and see how you are doing in real time. It lets you evaluate
your team and make sure you are on track to building a playoff caliber squad.
If you get to Pick X, what positions would you want to have by then? What would
your team look like, and would you be happy with that outcome?
Step 1 - Find Your Primes
Take a piece of paper and just write down the numbers from one to however many
rounds you will be drafting. For simplicity, I will assume you have a 20 round
draft and that your lineup will be a standard one - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE,
1 K and 1 Defense. That's nine starters and 11 reserves.
Now, circle the prime numbers - I'll give you a hand here - 2, 3, 5, 7, 11,
13, 17, and 19.
These are the picks that we will focus on. The rest of your team will fall into
place based on your actions at the Primes. Couple this simple sheet with an
ADP list of when most players are getting drafted this year and you have everything
you need. Let's get started.
First Three Primes - 2, 3, and 5
Rounds 1 through 7 represent the core of your team - most teams will have 3-5
running backs and 2-4 wide receivers after your first seven selections. You
already know who you will pick with your first choice no matter what pick you
get, so now you need to turn your attention to building a solid foundation for
a dominant fantasy team.
The first three Primes (2, 3, and 5) will dictate the flow of the rest of your
draft. Decide what players you want with these three selections, and quite a
few of your decisions will be made for you.
Take a good look at your overall ADP list. Look at the Top 50-60 players and
decide which three that you really want this year. Don't worry about position,
just pick three, but also don't get greedy. You won't be drafting Larry Johnson,
LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander, so just stop right there. Focus on
one player in the Top 25, another who is close, and one in the 40s or 50s on
the list.
Take those three names and write them down on your list as Round 2, Round 3,
and Round 5 selections. Double-check that your draft pick number is close or
better than the player ADP in all three cases. For example, if you covet a wide
receiver who has an ADP of 40, Round 3 is perfectly fine, but he will likely
not make it to Round 5.
Review your first three prime players list - are any of those likely to be
a committee running back, or an "either/or" situation? Ahman Green?
DeShaun Foster? Thomas Jones? Joseph Addai?
If this describes your list, again fill out your sheet with the other committee
running back at about 1-2 rounds above their ADP. I fully expect many teams
this year to have this scenario, so prepare for it. Even if it means that you
are taking the second back in the Top 5-7 rounds, don't worry. It will work
out fine.
Now - if you subscribe to the handcuff theory of backing up your first and
/ or second running back, find the name of the player on your ADP list and write
him down on your sheet for later reference. We'll slot him in to your picks
a little later.
Milestone Check - End of Round 5 Pick. Your team has five solid players that
will make up the majority of your team's core. This is the foundation of your
squad. Make sure that you are happy with these five names, and let's continue.
Prime Four - Completing Your Core - Prime 7
The plan for the fourth prime number, Prime Number 7, is for rounding out your
core roster. The two picks immediately after Round 5 will round out your running
back and wide receiver starters If you think you are light on running backs
or wide receivers, take the best one available. The same holds true if you have
not filled in your Round 6 pick yet.
This point also represents a transition in your draft. Take a hard look once
again at your team. If you took a break in your draft and reflected on your
roster after seven rounds you should have at least 3-4 RBs and 2-3 WRs, and
possibly a TE or a QB stud. Your team still needs some starters and depth, but
the shape of your team is now visible. From Round 8 on, you will now be focusing
on depth and positions that have not yet been addressed. Now it is time to change
gears.
Autopilot - Rounds 8 - 10
Here is where you switch the draft engine over to cruise control. Rounds 8,
9 and 10 share something in common - none of the numerals are prime numbers.
Here is a chance for you to catch your breath and reflect once again on your
core players. Check out bye weeks, handcuff running backs to get, and plan for
the back half of the draft.
How can you afford to do this? Well, here is the time within your draft that
you can address positions you have been ignoring and still get values. With
these three picks, you know that there is depth at both QB and TE, so the particular
player you get does not matter terribly much - as long as you get that position
covered.
Depending on your pick, you should likely be selecting quarterbacks with consecutive
picks at the 8/9 or the 9/10 portion of the draft - whichever set of picks are
closer together. This will often trigger a quarterback run amongst other owners,
opening yet more opportunities for you.
The third choice will probably be a tight end, provided you don't have one
already. Just take the highest one left on your list and move on. If you already
have one, switch over to another wide receiver, again selecting the highest
one on your list.
Prime Numbers 5 and 6 - Lucky 11 and 13
Remember that name we told you to write down earlier - the handcuff to your
primary running back? Time to put him on your list. Check your ADP chart one
more time and see if he is either above or below 168 (the last pick of Round
14). If he is under 168, jot his name down at Round 11, otherwise not him for
Round 13.
Why so early? Well, he represents the most value to you as the owner of the
starter in front of that RB, so he is worth the most to you. Also, there is
bound to be at least one other owner that is looking for any ray of hope for
his stable of running backs. Don't let him have a shot at the guy you need.
Your need outweighs his want, and you will be kicking yourself if you don't
get your handcuff. You will see later this "reach" is well worth it,
so go ahead and take the running back early. Have confidence that you will still
find a few more skill position players to add more depth to your very good team
and make it a great one.
The other Prime (11 or 13) should be used for the best available running back
or wide receiver on the board to build depth once again. There are plenty of
values still available at wide receiver, and it is likely that you need a couple
more. Take a Top 60 WR that you believe will outperform his ranking.
What about Round 12? Clearly the goal now is best player available. If you
have any fears about losing your Round 13 guy, go ahead and make the switch.
Cruise control through Round 12 does give you another chance to take a breather,
but this your team, not mine.
Auto Pilot Redux - Rounds 14 - 16
Round 13 is over and you find yourself again with one last breather. You should
have 2 QBs, 1 TE, and 4-6 RBs and 4-6 WRs by now. Do you like how this looks?
You should. Now you are ready for the final stretch.
Looking at your roster, something is missing. You have running backs, wide
receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends. Oh yeah, that's right - you still need
some defenses or kickers. A little more depth might not be bad either.
Here is yet another chance for you to make this team your own. In love with
a defense early? Can't wait to draft Jason Elam? Have at it then - now is your
chance.
Selecting a defense and a kicker at this point may seem early, but bear in
mind that everyone else will be thinking the same thing you are in the latter
rounds, which is to grab their first (and possibly second) kicker and defense.
You have a deep list of sleepers, right? So take the kicker and defense and
zig while everyone else zags. You may even start yet another run on a position
you hardly care about anymore and can go get your top choices from your list.
One more valuable asset to get here is your second tight end. This year, there
seems to be a good number of starters, but the backups are thin. Again, strike
while the iron is hot and get your second TE before anyone else.
Prime Numbers 7 and 8 - Final Rounds - Dark
Horses and Sleepers
You have your list of sleeper guys, just like any good owner. Just one word
of caution - don't be the "All-Star Sleepers" owner guy. Trying to
impress everyone at your draft that you know a player that would have even Mel
Kiper Jr. scratching his? That is NOT the goal of your Draft Day. Sure it is
nice to know a name that the rest of your league doesn't, but don't fall into
the trap of having too many sleepers. After all, you do need to field a competitive
team, and a lineup with Craig Nall, Justin Fargas and Cedrick Wilson may not
get it done.
Pencil in on your list two sleepers in Round 17 and Round 19. Reserve your
picks in Rounds 18 and 20 for backups, second kickers, second defenses or the
best talent that remains. You do not want to be sweating out for your last pick
to still be on the board in Round 20. Make that a total upside pick that matters
very little if it is a disappointment.
Prime Time
Now you have your plan. You know how to get a dominant fantasy team and are
prepared, but not overwhelmed by worrying about every last round. You understand
the basics of Primer Number Drafting, but let's summarize one last time:
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Rnd
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Target
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Comments |
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1
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RB1
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2
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Best player
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Top 20-25 player you want |
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3
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Best player
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Top 40 player you want |
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4
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RB/WR
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Consider coupling to RB already selected |
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5
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Best player
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Top 50-60 player you want |
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6
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RB/WR
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Consider coupling to RB already selected |
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7
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RB/WR
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Depending on team need |
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8
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TE1
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. |
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9
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QB1
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. |
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10
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QB2
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. |
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11
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RB1 handcuff or WR depth
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Use ADP to decide round 11 or 13 |
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12
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Best player
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. |
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13
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RB1 handcuff or WR depth
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Use ADP to decide round 11 or 13 |
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14
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TE2
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. |
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15
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Defense
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. |
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16
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Kicker
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. |
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17
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Dark horse #1
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. |
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18
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Defense or kicker
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. |
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19
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Dark horse #2
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. |
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20
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Defense, kicker or best player
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By focusing on a few select rounds, you have broken the draft down to several
milestones to mark your progress and make sure you are on track for the playoffs.
All you have to do now is remember your primes.
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