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Eyes of the Guru
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Posted 9/27 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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We wait so long for the season to begin that it
seems like it will never get here. Then once it starts it flies by. Hard to
believe we are already in week 4.
New Orleans Saints
Heading into the season the Saints defense had a lot of holes on paper. On
Monday night they showed us why they play the games. The most surprising aspect
of this unit is the consistent play of outside backers Scott Shanle and Scott
Fujita. Both of these guys have been getting it done and are a large contributor
to the teams early success. Shanle is not exactly tearing up the box scores but
he has been consistent and productive enough to receive consideration as depth
in a lot of leagues. Fujita on the other hand has been on fire. Through 3 games
he is on pace for a very solid 80 solo stops and he has been a major contributor
in the big play columns with a forced fumble, a pick and a sack. Its been a
couple of years but this is not the first time Fujita has provided fantasy
value. In a very similar situation with the Chiefs in '03, Fujita went 97-14-4
to lead the club in tackles. As in that situation, he is officially the left
(usually strong) outside backer but his versatility makes him the every down
guy. Fujita is not going to be a top 10 threat but the quality numbers aren't a
mirage. If available he deserves strong consideration... When the Saints picked
up Danny Clark I initially speculated that he would make his way into the
starting lineup fairly quickly. After getting a good long look at the Saints on
Monday night, I am forced to rethink. Clark is a big physical tough guy but he's
not very fast and he's not a big play threat. The Saints have built their LB
corps around speed and it has been successful. Mark Simoneau is not a great
player but he is probably a better fit in this scheme and will likely keep the
job until/unless he is injured... The Omar Stoutmire scare from week 2 blew
over. Josh Bullocks and Roman Harper have pretty much locked down the safety
jobs and are likely to be in place for a long time to come... Charles Grant
owners are breathing a big sigh of relief today after he finally broke out of
his slump with a 5-0-1. At least we hope he broke out of it. It's only one game
but I know I sure feel a lot better about him... The one downer to come from the
Saints big Monday night win is the knee injury suffered by impressive rookie end
Rob Ninkovich. He is expected to be out at least 4 weeks and quite possibly for
the remainder of the season. Willie Whitehead will return to the DE rotation in
Ninkovich's absence.
Atlanta Falcons
Sometimes its hard to tell when patience ends and stupidity begins when it comes
to sitting on underachieving players with big expectations. Patrick Kerney is
putting a lot of us in that grey area right now. History tells us that he's a
very good and productive player and as such we should wait another week and he
will come around. Maybe so, and maybe the injury he suffered in week 1 is worse
than they are letting on. What we do know is that Kerney played about 75% of the
Falcons defensive snaps over the past two weeks and that 1 lousy tackle in three
games is not acceptable from a guy that most of us expected to be a starter.
John Abraham is expected to return soon and possibly even this week. That should
help Kerney if he is healthy enough for it to make a difference. The league I
have him in is a dynasty/salary cap with a penalty for early release so I am
inclined to ride it out but I am seeing visions of Charles Grant last year and
Mike Rucker the year before. You will remember that both of those guys were
studs who suddenly fell on their faces out of the blue. Owners in redraft
leagues should get off this ship as soon as you can find one that floats... Ed
Hartwell was questionable last week but was never really close to suiting up for
the game. In fact there is no real target date for his full return so Demorrio
Williams is likely to continue seeing a lot of action for at least a couple more
weeks. Hartwell has been running and is reportedly close but he has been out
since early in the pre-season and will likely be eased back into action. On the
subject of Falcons linebackers, keep an eye on Michael Boley. The Falcons
coaching staff fell in love with this kid as a rookie last year and he's
beginning to show us why. Despite playing the SLB position, Boley has gone
14-3-0 with a pair of passes defended over the past two games. It remains to be
seen if he can consistently produce in this situation but his strong week 3
performance is enough to garner our attention.
St. Louis Rams
A lot of people including the Rams coaching staff and myself, expected this to
be a break out year for Anthony Hargrove. It may turn out to be a break up year
instead. The organization is being very quiet about the circumstances
surrounding his recent unexcused absence. According to the team he has been
fined "significantly" and has apparently lost his starting job to rookie 4th
round pick Victor Adeyanju. According to reports Hargrove will have to earn back
his starting job and there is speculation that it may be difficult for him to do
so. The coaching staff is very high on the rookie who has picked up the pro game
quickly. He looked good in his debut when he topped the Rams in tackles for week
3. Keeping in mind the attacking style of this defense, Adeyanju could become a
productive player immediately but dynasty owners in particular should have him
on the radar... Pisa Tinoisamoa played in week 3 with his dislocated elbow in a
brace. While this may prove his toughness and determination, he is not likely to
be very effective until healthy. If he's on your roster you need to at the least
bench him but I would suggest looking for suitable a replacement.
Arizona Cardinals
Karlos Dansby may not be completely recovered from the toe injury that has
sidetracked his '06 season. He saw action in week three but once again did not
start and shared time at WLB with Orlando Huff. After missing so much time
leading up to the season it may be that the coaching staff is bringing him back
slowly. That said, there continue to be rumors that he is simply on the outside
looking in with no starting job imminent. With his talent that is hard to
believe but if the toe is still a problem it could be effecting his game. I
didn't get to watch a lot of Sunday's game but one thing that I though very
interesting was Calvin Pace playing in the nickel on at least a few plays. That
alone brings up a lot of questions about Dansby's status.
Green Bay Packers
When the Packers drafted A.J. Hawk everyone down graded Nick Barnett a little
but no one was too concerned. In week one Barnett only went 4-5-0 but an
interception padded his stats so no one was too concerned. Over the past two
games he's put up only 4-7-0 and the time has come to be very concerned. Barnett
is currently on pace for 43 solo tackles and is 7th on his own team. Maybe the
most telling number is the 14 total assists. Many of those would have been
tackles in the past but the Packers are much improved from a talent perspective
so Barnett isn't able to clean everything up. Instead he is getting there just
in time to help someone else. He's too good a player to finish with forty
something tackles and will almost certainly rebound to some extent but it looks
like his days as a fantasy stud may be history... Ryan Pickett was forced out of
Sundays game with an ankle sprain and is questionable for week 4. Corey Williams
replaced him and went on to record 3 tackles and a pair of sacks. Pickett was
experienceing a lot of swelling early in the week and may try to play but
Williams is likely to see a lot of action again this week. If he plays well he
could bump Cullen Jenkins from the starting lineup or at the least could earn
more time in the rotation.
Detroit Lions
Injuries at linebacker continue to shuffle the Lions roster and Boss Bailey has
finally circulated back to the top at MLB. While he didn't have a great
statistical game against the Packers, it's noteworthy that he did finish second
on the team in tackles and even more importantly he finished the game on the
field not in the trainers room. Bailey is likely to start again in week 4 and a
match up with the Rams new power running attack will be a good barometer for
what we can expect from him down the road. There is a lot of potential here so
if you are in a very competitive league where it's hard to beat your fellow
owners to the punch, you may want to slip Bailey onto your roster now and cross
your fingers.
Buffalo Bills
No one needs Takeo Spikes to return worse than those of us with Aaron Schobel on
our rosters. With Spikes out, offenses are simply running the other way. In
passing situation Schobel is being double and sometimes triple teamed. Schobel
has a history of slow starts and strong finishes. He's not injured so unlike
Patrick Kerney, if you are sitting on Schobel I suggest you tough it out a while
longer. On the flip side, if some "less patient" or maybe "less stupid" owner in
your league cuts him, pick Schobel up and sit on him for a couple of weeks.
Spikes may miss another week or two but is expected to return well before mid
season... The beneficiary of this situation has been Ryan Denney who has found
himself in a target rich environment. Denney is not the official starter but has
been logging more than half the snaps in his time share with Chris Kelsay. He
has been very productive through 3 games but I'm not convinced that it will
continue over the long haul unless/until he somehow ends up with the job on a
full time basis... After all the hype why does Donte Whittner have only 8 solo
tackles in three games? It's certainly not due to a lack of talent. The main
culprit is likely the Tampa-2 scheme that has him lining up well off the ball in
center field way too often. It's obviously working for the Bills who have played
well defensively overall, but Whittner is too far from the ball to be a big
factor in the run support game which is holding down his production.
Cincinnati Bengals
I haven't seen it yet but I'm waiting for the Steelers or Browns fan to come to
Paul Brown stadium in an orange and black striped prison uniform with about 5
players names listed down the back. A local radio station that broadcasts the
games has a plug running that goes something like "Catch the Bengals on WTUE
this weekend as they continue their quest for a title. If the parole schedules
work out we should even be able to field a team". It's UG-ly! That said, the
Odell Thurman DUI arrest at least resolves some unknown issues for us. Marvin
Lewis has stated that he expects the league to extend Thurman's suspension for
the remainder of the season and even if they don't it is very telling that Lewis
gave Thurman's locker to a reserve offensive lineman. If you are sitting on him
in a redraft league cut your losses and move on. If you have Thurman in a
dynasty format, that's a tough call. You sure aren't going to get much for him
in a trade right now so it basically comes down to how bad you need the roster
spot. While those of us left holding the Thurman bag are shaking our heads in
denial, those owners who picked up Brian Simmons or Landon Johnson for a song
are smiling ear to ear. Both of these guys have been, and will continue to be
productive. If either of them happen to still be available grab them... Week
three was another vote of confidence for the Bengals pass rush with Justin Smith
and Robert Geathers combining for 3 sacks. They were quiet in week 2 but both of
them are now tied for second in the league with 4 sacks each. Smith is likely on
a roster already but Geathers will probably be available in most leagues and
looks to be a worth wile addition... Dexter Jackson is expected to miss at least
a couple more weeks with his ankle injury which makes Kevin Kaesviharn a strong
short term pickup. Kaesviharn may not equal Jackson's physical presence on the
field but he is certainly not a slacker in the box scores. Kaesviharn was very
productive as a starter last season and was simply impressive in his '06
starting debut with a 7-1-0, a forced fumble and the interception in the end
zone that sealed the victory for Cincinnati. Jackson's injury looked nasty and
it could be another month before he is back in action.
Carolina Panthers
There is no word on a potential return date for Dan Morgan but it appears
possible that he could sit for several more weeks. The Panthers initially
replaced Morgan with rookie Adam Seward but plan A didn't work out very well.
This week the decision was made to get some experience on the field at the
position. Plan B involved veteran journeyman Chris Draft moving to the middle
and veteran journeyman Na'il Diggs reclaiming his starting WLB job. Neither of
these guys are great players but the veteran presence seemed to make a big
difference for the Panthers defense in week 3. The Carolina MLB position is a
fantasy gold mine. So much so that even an average player like Draft can be a
very productive fantasy option. The one thing you shouldn't count on from Draft
however, is a lot of big play production. He's made 40 starts and played in 98
games over his 8 pro seasons and has 8.5 sacks with 4 picks. The bottom line
here is that Draft can be a very serviceable pickup but he doesn't have much
upside and he could return to the backup role in a few weeks... So far Thomas
Davis hasn't made anyone forget Mark Fields but his 6-1-0 and a pair of passes
defended in week three are probably encouraging enough to save his roster spot
for one more week. with only a 13-4-0 mark to show for the first three games,
Davis is at best a player on the bubble for most of those who have him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The time has come to snatch up Barrett Ruud if it's not too late. He hasn't gone
off big just yet but he is a player on the verge. Ruud made his second start of
the season in week three when Ryan Nece was forced to sit with a sore knee. The
coaching staff elected to slide Shelton Quarles outside and give Ruud the nod in
the middle. It may be a long time before he returns to the bench. Ruud played
well and finished with a solid 8 solo tackles against Carolina. Just as
important as his quality play is the situation that has evolved in Tampa Bay.
The Bucks sit at 0-3, just lost their starting QB and now have a rookie under
center. The defense that was supposed to keep them in games currently ranks 25th
at 22.3 points per game and is beginning to unravel. Quarles has been bothered
by an injury and looks slow in pass coverage which had been his strength. At 35
years old, father time may be catching up with him. Ruud is the future of the
MLB position for the Bucks and made a strong case for the starting job during
training camp. At 0-3 the future may well be now. Nece is likely to sit again in
week 4 so Ruud is all but certain to get another opportunity to shine. Besides,
Quarles looked pretty good at SLB. Don't wait until the team makes it official.
Shop early and avoid the rush... The 12 tackle performance by Jermaine Phillips
in week two was a real attention getter. Last week I mentioned that the Tampa-2
scheme is generally very unfriendly to its safeties in fantasy terms and as such
there was a chance that he was a one week wonder. I also mentioned that if you
waited until week three to get more proof, you would likely miss the opportunity
to pick him up. Week three pretty much put the controversy to rest. Phillips is
now 3rd in the league in tackles by defensive backs with 24 solo stops. I guess
the key is that good Tampa-2 defenses are tough on safety production. At this
point the Bucks just aren't a very good defense.
Minnesota Vikings
The more things change, the more they stay the same in Minnesota. Last year most
of the Vikings defensive players were all but useless. Not only were their
overall numbers very average but there was no consistency. New coaching, new
scheme but through three games this year it's the same results. Week 1 E.J.
Henderson looks like the man with a solid 6-1-0. Week 2 he hovers at respectable
with a 5-0-0. Week three he all but vanishes. In week one Napoleon Harris is
very average. Week 2 he explodes for for 9-1-1. Week 3 its back to yuck. Kevin
Williams throws a goose egg in week one, a strong 4-0-1 in week 2 and back to
the goose egg in week 3. So far it looks like there are two things you can count
on. Antoine Winfield (22 tackles) is going to produce, and Darren Sharper (8
tackles no picks) is not.
Chicago Bears
The Bears decision to hand over the starting FS job to rookie Danieal Manning
was not based on any displeasure with former starter Chris Harris. Manning
simply impressed to such an extent that the coaching staff had to get him on the
field. He has corner speed and cover skills and the natural big play instincts
that fit perfectly at FS in the Bears scheme. Don't expect Manning to put up
great tackle numbers but in the long run he could very well become the next Ed
Reed in the big play columns. Don't write Harris off completely either. Mike
Brown has proven to be somewhat fragile over the past couple of years and we saw
during the pre-season what Harris can do at SS if given the opportunity. He will
remain the team's top backup at both positions.
New York Giants
The Giants head into their bye week licking their wounds. Their "dominating pass
rush" has produced all of 2 sacks and Michael Strahan doesn't even have one of
them. Sam Madison has looked slow and has been picked on successfully by
everyone they have played. The coaching staff will use the bye week to try an
fix the pass rush problems but they can't make the 32 year old Madison young
again. Those of us sitting on Strahan and Osi Umenyiora are going to have to
ride this one out. There is too much talent and potential here for the slump to
continue very long... Carlos Emmons came back from an injury that kept him out
for much of the pre-season and reclaimed the starting WLB job. He even led the
club with 11 solo tackles week two but unfortunately Emmons may be lost for the
season with a pectoral injury. He will undergo tests this week to determine the
extent of the injury but is seems similar to the one that ended his '05 season
early. Brandon Short is still recovering from a knee sprain and hasn't been a
factor since the pre-season. If he can't go after the bye week (and maybe even
if he can) look for rookie Gerris Wilkinson to get the call. The organization is
very high on the third round pick who may be given an opportunity to lay full
claim to the starting job if he plays well. Over the first three games the
Giants WLB position has yielded a very solid 20-6-0. Keep this situation on your
radar. Especially if you are a dynasty owner.
Baltimore Ravens
In seasons past Ed Reed has been the only Ravens DB worthy of much fantasy
consideration and even he has fallen short when it comes to consistency and
tackle production. That may be changing. Rookie Dawan Landry managed a team high
6-1-0 against the lowly Browns in week 3. Those numbers following a very
respectable 5-4-0 in week 2 against the hapless and offensively challenged
Raiders. Unlike in years past, the Ravens seem to be playing the SS up closer to
the line of scrimmage and getting Landry more involved in run support. The Raven
have a brutal schedule over their next 5 games so keep tabs on the youngster.
Miami Dolphins
I can't help but to get a kick out of owners who chase box scores. Don't be the
guy who wastes a transaction fee on Keith Traylor this week. Let the guy who
picked up Darnell Dockett last week have him. Traylor is a 16 year veteran who
has produced more than 27 tackles just once in his career and has a previous
career high of 2 sacks. He isn't suddenly going to break out. Traylor is on a
nice three game run but he will not keep up the pace for long and is unlikely to
record more than a couple of sacks over the remainder of the season. As the
season wears on he will lose playing time to Dan Wilkinson who should eventually
start along with Vonnie Holliday. Much of Traylor's playing time in week 3 came
at the expense of Holliday who has been bothered by a calf injury. On top of all
that Traylor is facing league actions over an off-field issue.
New England Patriots
There hasn't been much fan fare about it but the Patriots have quietly been
using a lot of 4-3 alignments in the early part of the season and according to
reports they plan to use it even more down the road. They stuck with the mostly
3-4 against the Broncos in week three thinking it would match up better with
Denver's zone blocking schemes but that may prove to be the exception rather
than the rule going foreword. When they go to the 4-3 Richard Seymour and Jarvis
Green work at DE with Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren on the interior. At LB Bruschi
plays the middle with Vrable at WLB and Rosevelt Colvin at SLB. A 4-3 scheme
allows the Patriots to get the most out of their stellar DL which is the
strength of the unit. It also offers some relief to the thin LB corps. The
problem for us is that in swapping back and forth they make it tough for us to
get a read on them from week to week and it will likely effect the box score
consistency of several players.
Denver Broncos
History suggests that Ian Gold is a solid yet unspectacular fantasy option but
his monster production over the past two games is hard to argue with. Gold has
led the Broncos in tackles twice in three years as their starting WLB but has a
career best of only 85 solo stops. The people who keep statistics for Denver
have been very stingy in the past and I have often called for their firing.
Maybe that has finally happened? At any rate, Gold is on fire. Despite a 2
tackle performance in the opener he is on pace for a whopping 117 solo stops.
Obviously he won't reach that lofty total but he may well set a new career mark
and could prove to be worthy of a starting job in many leagues. What remains to
be seen is if he can keep up the quality numbers with any consistency.
San Francisco 49ers
Last week I mentioned that the Niners opened in a 4-3. After comparing notes
with FBG teammate Jene Bramel it's been brought to my attention that the club
has actually been using a great deal of 4-3 dating back to the pre-season. They
did however, open in the 3-4 against the Eagles in week three. As with the
Patriots, not knowing from week to week which scheme a defense will feature
makes them very difficult to predict. Bryant Young is a perfect example of this.
He was very productive in the first two weeks when he lined up at DE much of the
time but a return to the 3-4 in week three netted him a 1-0-0.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have been decimated by injury in the secondary. Lito Sheppard is not
ready to return from his ankle injury, Roderick Hood aggravated his heel injury
in week three, Brian Dawkins suffered a concussion against the Niners, Michael
Lewis a quad strain. Even the backups are banged up with Sean Considine gimpy
due to a hip flexor injury. Dawkins says he will play but the rest of the crew
remains questionable. Lewis may be able to go but he would likely be at less
than 100%. Look for news later in the week and consider the injuries when
putting in your lineup on both sides of the ball. Those Packers receivers are
looking pretty good for week 4... In week one Matt McCoy looked very good and it
seemed as if the Eagles had finally found an answer for their WLB position. Then
week two and three came and McCoy recorded just 4 tackles between them. McCoy is
still starting and getting all the playing time with the base defense, yet it's
Shawn Barber who is racking up the numbers. Barber has led the team in tackles
for the past two games and currently leads the club on the season. There will be
a lot of owners trying to pick Barber up this week. If you are one of those
owners but happen to miss out on him, don't be too upset. Barber is playing
mostly in passing situations and has seen extensive playing time in the past two
games because the Eagles have jumped out to big early leads and their opponents
have been forced to the air. Unless he takes over the starting WLB job and
becomes an every down player, Barber will be hard pressed to keep up the pace.
Those who picked up McCoy after week one can now look to get better use out of
the roster spot. He will probably have a few more good games but unless he can
capture the full time role he will be very inconsistent at best.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts really miss run stuffing DT Corey Simon who is expected to miss at
least a few more weeks with a sore knee. Without Simon the Colts have been
gashed by opponents running games. Their fly weight defensive line relies too
much on speed and has no answer for a between the tackles power running attack.
That is good news for those of us with Gary Brackett, Cato June and any healthy
Indy safety. Which leads us to the point. Last week I mentioned rookie Antoine
Bethea as a player to pick up. If you grabbed him then you are already smiling.
If you didn't, try to get him this week but expect plenty of competition. Bethea
played well and was very productive during the pre-season. So much so in fact
that it was speculated he might eventually replace even a healthy Mike Doss at
SS. That hasn't happened yet but considering the long string of injury problems
that have haunted both Doss and Bob Sanders there is likely to be plenty of
opportunity for Bethea. He started week 1 in place of Doss who was banged up and
made his second start in week three replacing Sanders. Knee and shoulder
injuries have Sanders status for week 4 is seriously in doubt. The Colts
coaching staff has to be tired of all the injury shuffling and may welcome a
player they can depend on regularly. It looks like Bethea could be that player.
Dynasty owners in particular should be all over this kid. It looks like the
could have a very bright future.
That's a wrap for week 4. Good luck this
weekend!
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