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Eyes of the Guru

Finally! We have real football to talk about and real numbers to look at. A lot of questions have been answered but as is the norm after the first round of games, others are now being asked. As the old cliché goes, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon. If you had a great week 1, don't be complacent. There is plenty of time for your work of art to self destruct. If you had a horrible week 1, don't be discouraged. There is plenty of time to turn it around. Most importantly never stop trying to make your team stronger.

Carolina Panthers
With Will Witherspoon in St. Louis, one of the big questions entering the season was who would step in at MLB when the fragile Dan Morgan goes down? That question was answered early on Sunday. Morgan has never been able to stay healthy for long but he broke his own record when he left the game in the first quarter with yet another concussion. This has become a recurring problem for Morgan who missed time last season with the same injury. It is said that every time a player suffers a concussion he becomes more susceptible to another one. If this is the case, how many more of them can Morgan take before it becomes a career threatening situation? There is no word on the severity of the injury but chances are he will miss at least a game or two. Adam Seward appears to be the man this year. He came off the bench Sunday to finish second on the team in tackles with a respectable 6-1-0. Seward is a second year guy who the Panthers like a lot. He's not Dan Morgan but Seward is a very capable player who will be productive if he's in the lineup and it looks like we could see a lot of him this season... The injury to Morgan was no real surprise but Chris Draft getting the start at WLB was. Na'il Diggs was injured shortly after he beat out rookie James Anderson for the job and is was expected that Anderson would get the call if Diggs were unable to play on his sprained knee. Draft is a very average player who has very limited fantasy potential. There is little doubt that Anderson is a much better player so it must have been the experience factor that made the decision. Dynasty owners should be looking hard at Seward and/or Anderson... Need help at DB? Take a long look at Shaun Williams. He has a history of solid production dating back to his days with the Giants and stepped up strong with a team high 8-2-0 in the opener. Seward can be a quality player with a little experience but any club that is forced to start Draft is in a bad way. The Panthers may already be regretting the loss of Witherspoon. If Morgan misses a lot of time the Panthers will struggle at LB which bodes well for Williams continued production. 

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have to be feeling a little deja-vu after week 1. For the second year in a row a very promising defensive unit has been beset with injuries right out of the gate. MLB Ed Hartwell missed the opener and there is some speculation that he may not return before at least week 4. To fill the void the coaching staff made the same move as last season by sliding Keith Brooking inside and plugging in Demorrio Williams at WLB. Just like last season the adjustment makes Williams a viable fantasy option. Owners who are without Odell Thurman for a few weeks might find Williams to be a perfect fit. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that Hartwell will be 100% when he returns or anytime this season for that matter. Williams put up a respectable 5-3-0 in the opener but didn't do enough to draw a lot of attention, at least not yet. We know from experience that he is capable of very strong production if he stays in the lineup. If you have room to do it, roll the dice. Williams might come up a 7... On the first series of Sunday's game Atlanta lost Patrick Kerney to a biceps injury. He played only a few snaps the rest of the game and was ineffective. The good news is that the injury is not a tear and Kerney is not expected to miss much time if any. According to Kerney, he felt much better on Monday and stated that he expects to play in week 2. The bad news is that he now becomes a very risky play for us. At least until he has played a couple of games without further problems... Adding injury to insult, the Falcons lost star free agent addition John Abraham to a groin injury later in the game. The early word from Abraham is that its not a serious injury and he doesn't expect to miss much time if any. Right... anyone who saw him waddle off the field once he finally got up will attest to the fact that it didn't look like a "mild strain". Abraham was hurting. Keep in mind that he missed 9 games and 11 starts a few years back with the same injury and also keep in mind that groin injuries don't heal fast. This problem could be with him the rest of the season and it could get ugly. If the Falcons are forced to go without either of their stud ends look for Chauncey Davis to get the call but keep in mind that Rod Coleman can also play end and was very productive from that position for a stint while playing in Oakland. If both starters miss time or if either is out for an extended period, look for Coleman to see time on the outside and Darrell Shropshire to get a lot more work at tackle. 

New York Jets
Kerry Rhodes only posted a 2-2-0 in week one but managed to bail out his owners with an interception. Don't let the weak tackle production make you nervous. Rhodes missed some time during the game with a minor ankle problem but eventually returned to the game and displayed no ill effects. He's not expected to miss any practice time or be limited heading to week 2. The other thing that had a negative impact on Rhodes tackle numbers was the fact that Tennessee ran the ball 25 times for only 88 yards which means the ball carriers rarely made it past the LB level. In fact inside linebackers accounted for 16 tackles. It's a safe bet that the Patriots running game will be more successful in week 2. 

Tennessee Titans
When the Titans added Chris Hope I wrote that this would be our chance to see if it was lacking talent or an unfriendly scheme that crippled the fantasy production of the Titans SS position over the past several years. One week isn't a great measuring stick but the early returns indicate it was the lack of talent. Tank Williams was the starter at the position for several years and you can count the number of times he reached 7 solo tackles on your fingers. Hope managed a strong 7-2-0 in his first opportunity. It's way too early to crown him a stud but if you are in need of help at the DB position you probably shouldn't wait and see if he repeats in week 2. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Shelton Quarles sidelined Barrett Ruud had an opportunity to impress in week one but he didn't take full advantage of it. Ruud didn't play poorly and did nothing to hurt his standing but he wasn't a difference maker and didn't make the decision tough for the coaching staff when it comes to Quarles returning to the lineup. Ruud finished the game with a forgettable mark of 3-5-0 and will likely return to his backup role in week 2 as Quarles is expected to return. 

Pittsburgh Steelers
I have to chuckle at all the owners who will leap on Joey Porter after his monster game in the opener. Don't be the guy who chases every player who has a good game. Porter is one of those players who will blow up 4 or 5 times over the course of the season but take a close look at his box score before you get blinded by the big fantasy total. Take away the big plays and Porter is 2-1-0. Base your defensive player moves on consistency in the tackle columns. Porter went for 11 sacks and 2 picks all of last year but only 40 tackles. If he were to equal that production he only has 9 sacks and 1 pick left. Do you want to gamble on when those will come?... Keep an eye on Troy Polamalu this week. He is working through a sore shoulder and may be questionable for Monday night. 

Oakland Raiders
If there is one thing I learned from the Raiders week 1 game it's that while I love the Monday night double header, it's incredibly tough to stay awake in the Eastern time zone when one team passes the ball all of 11 times and the other doesn't score a point... On the important side there were some very interesting numbers. Rookie Thomas Howard led the club in solo tackles, a backup tackle went 7-1-0 and 6 players recorded at least 5 solo stops. Beware of the inflated numbers. Bad as Oakland was in this one, there will not be many games in which their opponent runs the ball 48 times... A lot of owners will be looking to pick up Terdell Sands after his big game. He could turn out to be a solid addition but then again he could be a one week wonder. In the first quarter San Diego ran the ball for 90+ yards with most of them coming between the tackles. Sands replaced Warren Sapp on the first series of the second quarter and the Chargers were slowed to around 100 yards over the final 45 minutes. So what does this mean? Is Sapp going to be replaced? Sands made a difference and probably earned himself a little more playing time at the least. He's a 335 pound wide body who is with the third team of his 4 year career. It's hard to fathom that he will make a consistent fantasy splash but if your league requires tackles he may be worth a shot.

San Diego Chargers
Don't get down on Terrence Kiel too quickly. Sure he only had 3 tackles in week one but consider how lopsided the game was before you make a mistake and let him go. The Raiders ran just 28 offensive plays that resulted in tackles, they had just 87 yards on the ground and completed just 8 passes. All things considered 3 tackles from the safety position in this fiasco is fairly impressive. 

Minnesota Vikings
Heading into week one what we needed to know about the Vikings was how the playing time would break down for the linebackers. We heard all through the preseason that E.J. Henderson was playing the best football of his career and that spilled out on the field Monday night. Henderson's 6-1-0 was second on the club but more importantly he remained on the field as a 3 down player. Napoleon Harris played mostly on early downs and running situations. In the nickel he and Ben Leber were replaced by Dontarious Thomas. I didn't get a confirmation on who was handling the dime duties but I believe it was Henderson. If he is still available in your league I suggest you see about getting him on your roster... The Vikings played solid defense overall but the lack of pass rush was a surprise and somewhat of a concern. They desperately need to get Erasmus James and Kevin Williams going. The success of a Tampa-2 scheme relies on the front 4 providing pressure. They don't want to have to commit linebackers or backs to make it happen... Greg Blue made the start at FS for Dwight Smith who was being disciplined. Meanwhile it was Darren Sharper who lined up at SS. With the change of position could Sharper's big play potential takes a little hit but his tackle numbers and consistency should get a boost. 

San Francisco 49ers
There were reports during camp and the preseason that Tony Parrish had not yet returned to form after suffering a nasty broken leg a year ago. Those reports claimed he was on the verge of losing the starting job. Parrish was listed as the official starter against Arizona but career backup Chad Williams saw the vast majority of playing time at the SS position. As of Tuesday night I have not seen any reports of an injury to Parrish leaving me to speculate that he was benched during the game. Williams is a decent player who could have some value if he comes away with the starting job here... Mike Adams had a big game (7-1-0) from the FS position and is a guy who deserves some attention. The San Francisco defense is far from finished with the rebuilding process and Adams seems to have emerged as the teams best player at the safety positions and very possibly a quality fantasy option. 

Arizona Cardinals
He's not officially a rookie but having missed nearly all of his first year with a knee injury the rookie corner rule still applies to Antrel Rolle. He will be looked at by offensive coordinators as an inexperienced target to be taken advantage of and will be picked on until he proves that he shouldn't be. Rolle opened the season with a team high 7-1-0 for the Cardinals and may prove to be one of the few corners who stands out as a serious fantasy option this year. He reminds me of Nate Clements or Ronde Barber in that he's a big corner who who doesn't shy away from contact and is used in a run support role. Chances are he's long gone in leagues that require corners but he may have been overlooked in a lot of other leagues... David Macklin opened as the starter opposite Rolle but he was benched during the first half in favor of Eric Green who is likely to retain the starting job going foreword. Green isn't the physical presence that Rolle is and doesn't seem as eager to make plays in the running game but for owners who must start corners he may prove a quality option... The word out of Arizona is that Karlos Dansby will begin practicing late this week and may be available for Sunday. He's expected to work at WLB and will undoubtedly replace Orlando Huff at the position once he's ready to play full time... Calvin Pace made his first regular season start at SLB but left the game early with an ankle injury and was replaced by Darryl Blackstock. The injury isn't serious and Pace reportedly will be ready for week 2... There aren't many leagues out there in which Gerald Hayes hasn't been picked up yet but if you happen to be in one of the few, get this guy on your team. He has some injury risk but has remained healthy through the preseason and is going to be a stud if he stays on the field. His 5-0-1 with a fumble recover in the opener is just the tip of the iceberg. 

New Orleans Saints
The Saints LB positions have been a rollercoaster ride throughout the preseason and it may not be completely over yet. Scott Fujita has settled in as the starter on the strong side and Scott Shanle seems to have gained a strong hold on the WLB position. Both guys looked good against the offensively challenged Browns. The one position that remains in question is MLB. Mark Simoneau was promoted ahead of Alfred Fincher in the days leading up to the opener but don't count on him holding the position for long. Simoneau reminds me of Dexter Coakley in that he's a fast athletic linebacker but lacks a nasty streak that good linebacker have. In short he's a finesse type who is best suited for to play WLB or hold a backup role. The club landed Danny Clark after he was released by the Raiders and once he has a little time to digest the defense he should push Simoneau back to the bench. Clark is not a great player but he is physical, dependable and is a good on field leader. Clark saw some action in a limited role against Cleveland and we will likely see a lot more of him in week 2. You may not want to move on Clark until he gains the starting nod but keep a close eye on the situation and keep in mind that Clark produced a team high 98 solo tackles as a Raider in '04. He could very well put up similar numbers in this situation... The Saints are going young at the safety positions with second year man Josh Bullocks starting at FS and rookie Roman Harper at SS. Both were very productive in the opener where they finished at the top of the box scores. Bullocks put up 5-1-0 and a pick and Harper 5-0-1. Bullocks was a late round pick in most leagues but Harper went undrafted in many and may be available. These two both looked very good in week one and are likely the long term answers at their respective positions... Don't over react to the three sack performance turned in by Brian Young. He was able to take advantage of a weak link in the Browns offensive line and isn't going to be productive on a consistent basis. 

Cleveland Browns
The battle between Chaun Thompson and D'Qwell Jackson went right down to the wire but the rookie was given the nod in the opener and he played very well. Jackson was the club's second leading tackler in against New Orleans with a very solid 7-3-0. Considering the apparent state of the offense, Jackson should continue to be a very productive option. He's long gone in dynasty leagues but may have been overlooked in some redraft leagues... Despite being listed as doubtful on the Friday injury report, Brian Russell suited up and played on Sunday. I have to wonder if he was motivated by the possibility of losing his starting job if he didn't play? Russell started at FS and managed to go the whole way without a setback. Meanwhile Sean Jones got the nod at SS but as feared the club also worked Brodney Pool into mix. The trio basically worked as safety by committee which served to ruin the production of all three guys. So long as the Browns continue to play all three of them it's probably best to avoid this mess all together. 

Philadelphia Eagles
In the preseason EOTG I talked about how the Eagles like to rotate so many defensive linemen that it's tough for any of them to produce consistent fantasy numbers. In week one Philly put an exclamation point on the term "DL rotation" when they did a complete line change for each defensive series. Darren Howard and Jevon Kearse started at the ends and worked the odd number series while Trent Cole and Jaqua Thomas were in on the even numbered series. At tackle Darwin Walker and Mike Patterson worked with Howard and Kearse with LaJuan Ramsey and Broderick Bunkley working the even series. This strange approach seems to have worked for the Eagles with the DL accounting for four of the five sacks on the day but how much of that was the due to fresh legs rushing the passer and how much was due to the traditionally inept pass blocking of the Texans OL? The obvious problem for us is that this approach spreads the number out way too far. The DE positions accounted for 6-1-4 but none of the players in the mix could do better than 2 tackles. There is a lot of talent and potential here but these guys don't get to play the Texans every week so fantasy owners should try to avoid this mess... One other interesting note on the DL, Jerome McDougle and Sam Rayburn were both healthy but inactive for the game... Second year WLB Matt McCoy was on the watch list coming into the season. After leading the club with a 8-1-0 and forcing a fumble in the opener he will be drawing a lot more attention. Shawn Barber recorded a tackle in each of the first two series and then vanished from the box scores while McCoy came on strong. Most importantly McCoy saw action on passing downs late in the game which suggests that he may have laid claim as the Eagles every down LB. The Eagles have been searching for a stud WLB dating all the way back to James Darling and may have finally found one. Don't hesitate to make a move for McCoy if you are in need at LB... Philly lost starting corner Lito Sheppard for a few weeks with an ankle sprain which makes Roderick Hood the starter. Playing opposite a quality cover guy like Sheldon Brown, Hood will likely be picked on until Sheppard returns and could have some value for owners in corner required leagues who like to micro-manage.

Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans is a kid that several of us here at Footballguys have been harping on all through the preseason and what a debut. Ryans leads the league in tackles after week one and is in line to be the best rookie linebacker since Zach Thomas went 120-35-2 back in '96. He's long gone in dynasty leagues and no one needs me to tell tell them to pick him up if he somehow slipped through the cracks in your redraft league. A stellar young player on a team that will obviously struggle, he could very well land in the top 10 or even top 5 as a rookie... I have never been a fan of Morlon Greenwood but this team is going to struggle and after releasing Sam Cowart with the final cuts they have no one on the roster with any shot at replacing him. Ryans will obviously be the stud but in this situation there should be enough leftovers to make Greenwood a decent #3 option or quality depth. 

Chicago Bears
Rookie Danieal Manning is not likely to beat out either of the starters at safety this year but fate keeps giving him opportunity to get on the field and he is taking advantage of every chance he gets. Manning saw extensive action in the preseason while Mike Brown rested his sore Achilles. Brown was able to start and go the distance at SS in the opener and reported no problems but FS Chris Harris didn't fare so well. Harris suffered a sprained ankle against the Packers which let the rookie get on the field late in the game. Manning soon made his mark by intercepting a Favre pass in the red zone and preserving the shutout. Harris's injury is not believed to be serious and he could return as soon as this weekend. The way Manning has played, Harris doesn't want to give the youngster too much of an opportunity. Dynasty owners with an opening on the taxi squad or room to carry him should take a long look at Manning and/or tuck him away for safe keeping... Manning wasn't the only Bears rookie to make a good showing against the Packers. Mark Anderson was drafted to fill the void that Michael Haynes was never able to, as the clubs #3 DE. He worked into the mix in the opener and recorded one of the Bears 3 sacks on the day. Anderson won't displace either of the starters in the short term but should there be an injury don't hesitate to pluck him out of the free agent pool. 

Green Bay Packers
A.J. Hawk owners shouldn't be overly concerned about his mediocre debut not should anyone get too excited about Brady Poppinga leading the team in tackles for the opener. The unexpected shift in box score production was directly related to the Bears offensive game plan. They were either attacking some perceived weakness in the Packers defense or taking advantage of their own strength. Poppinga is a solid player and probably the best SLB the Packers have lined up in the past decade but he's not a strong candidate for steady fantasy production. 

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags defense took a blow with the loss of DE Reggie Hayward who is gone for the year with a torn Achilles. After the injury Marcellus Wiley replaced Hayward for most of the game but the Jags will reportedly promote Rob Meier to starter for the long haul. Meier has been with the Jaguars since '00 when he was their 7th round draft pick but has never held a starting role on the defense. The Jags will miss Hayward's pass rush production but the 293 pound Meier is an above average pass rusher and should provide a little boost when it comes to run defense. Don't expect much from him in the box scores however. Look for Bobby McCray to have an increased role as well. He will likely see more action in passing situations... Mike Peterson played with a sore knee in week one. He suffered no setbacks and was pretty productive considering the situation. He will probably be listed as questionable again for week 2 but will likely play again. Unless you are stud rich at the LB position, Peterson belongs in the lineup even if he is less than 100%, especially when you consider the match up. Keep your eyes open late in the week to be sure nothing changes with the injury situation. 

Dallas Cowboys
Bradie James is supposed to be the Cowboys stud inside linebacker but don't overlook the fact that Akinola Ayodele out produced him in the opener. James plays the generally more productive left ILB position in the Cowboys 3-4 but last season unable to harness the box score potential that the position provides. Ayodele meanwhile is the kind of big physical presence that Parcells looks for at the ILB position and his solid 7-0-0 in the opener may well be a prelude of things to come. James has had plenty of opportunity to prove himself and while he has played fairly well, he's not been the kind of difference maker that the coaching staff would like. It's only one week so don't over react but keep a close eye on this situation. Ayodele may prove to be a very worthy pickup... 

Buffalo Bills
One of the questions we were looking to answer in week one was who would play the LB positions in the Bills nickel and dime packages. Unfortunately Takeo Spikes was forced out of the game with a hamstring injury before we had a chance to see how that would play out. Against the Pats London Fletcher was the every down guy and was joined in the nickel by Angelo Crowell. With Spikes gimpy that will likely remain the case but we still can't be sure what will happen when everyone is healthy. Spikes injury is worse than originally thought and he is now expected to miss at least week 2 and possibly beyond. Grab Crowell if you can... FS Troy Vincent was also lost to a hamstring problem during the game but his injury was severe enough to have already landed him on IR. The Bills had planned for rookie Ko Simpson to eventually takeover the job and Vincent's injury simply accelerates the plan. The Bills FS position has not been a fantasy friendly one over the years so we shouldn't be in any hurry to jump on Simpson but he should be on our radar just in case... Heading into week one there was uncertainty at the SS position with ever conflicting reports about who would start and how the playing time would break down. Coy Wire did indeed get the official call as starter but that was about it. Early in the game he was replaced by rookie Donte Whitner who went the rest of the way recording a respectable 4-4-0 with a pick. There is no controversy entering week 2 as Whitner has already been named the starter and is expected to play virtually full time. It's too early in the season to throw in the towel but with Vincent and Spikes already down and a pair of rookies starting at safety, are the Bills looking to the future? It could be another long season for Bills fans. 

New England Patriots
Tedy Bruschi took week one off to give his ailing wrist a little more healing time. In his absence Junior Seau and Mike Vrabel handled the ILB positions. Despite having never played in the middle Seau took to the new job like a fish to water and led the club in tackles with a 5-3-0. Bruschi is expected to return for week two which will allow the Pats to shift Vrabel back outside and is likely to have an impact on Seau's production as well. This is another situation that is tough to call until we see all the parts working together. That said, Seau looks like a real good fit in the scheme and could prove to be a quality option for us. He isn't going to be a stud but he could be productive and consistent enough to provide quality depth as the season goes on and attrition thins the ranks. 

Kansas City Chiefs
Sammy Knight managed to hold onto the starting SS job through camp but a poor outing in the opener may have severely loosened his grip. It was already anticipated that Knight would be replaced at some point this season so it was not big surprise that he was benched during the game. What was a surprise is that his replacement was not second round pick Bernard Pollard as many expected. Instead Knight gave way to rookie 7th round pick Jarrad Page. All the emphasis in KC at the moment revolves around the QB situation so chances are we will not find out until Sunday if Knight's demotion is permanent and/or if it is, who will get the start at SS. The one thing that is certain at this point, it's not a good idea to have Knight in your lineup this weekend. Stay tuned for further developments.

Cincinnati Bengals
In '05 the Bengals defense became one of the leagues premier big play units but one area they were lacking in was the pass rush. If the opener is any indication, that problem has been solved. With 3 sacks against the Chiefs Justin Smith is well on his way to his first double digit sack total. Maybe it was the move back to back to right end, maybe it's the fact that he's in a contract year or maybe it has more to do with the unit finally hitting on all cylinders. Whatever the cause Smith looked like a man on a mission and should be at the top of your pickup list if you have a need at the position... Smith wasn't the only one to break out against KC. Robert Geathers bulked up last year so he could handle a full time role as starter. That didn't work out very well. This offseason he trimmed back down and has returned to his role as a pass rush specialist. The early results are very promising. He may not see a lot of action on early downs with Bryan Robinson working there, but in passing situations Robinson moves inside and Geathers is turned lose on the passer. His 2 sacks in the opener were more than half of last years total. Its only one game but watching him against the Chiefs brought visions of Robert Mathis to mind... Brian Simmons led the Bengals in tackles despite being banged up and missing a series. He returned later and is not expected to miss any time this week. 

Best of luck to everyone this week!

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