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Eyes of the Guru
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Posted 9/13 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Finally! We have real football to talk about and real numbers to look at. A
lot of questions have been answered but as is the norm after the first round
of games, others are now being asked. As the old cliché goes, it's not
a sprint, it's a marathon. If you had a great week 1, don't be complacent. There
is plenty of time for your work of art to self destruct. If you had a horrible
week 1, don't be discouraged. There is plenty of time to turn it around. Most
importantly never stop trying to make your team stronger.
Carolina Panthers
With Will Witherspoon in St. Louis, one of the big questions entering the season
was who would step in at MLB when the fragile Dan Morgan goes down? That question
was answered early on Sunday. Morgan has never been able to stay healthy for
long but he broke his own record when he left the game in the first quarter
with yet another concussion. This has become a recurring problem for Morgan
who missed time last season with the same injury. It is said that every time
a player suffers a concussion he becomes more susceptible to another one. If
this is the case, how many more of them can Morgan take before it becomes a
career threatening situation? There is no word on the severity of the injury
but chances are he will miss at least a game or two. Adam Seward appears to
be the man this year. He came off the bench Sunday to finish second on the team
in tackles with a respectable 6-1-0. Seward is a second year guy who the Panthers
like a lot. He's not Dan Morgan but Seward is a very capable player who will
be productive if he's in the lineup and it looks like we could see a lot of
him this season... The injury to Morgan was no real surprise but Chris Draft
getting the start at WLB was. Na'il Diggs was injured shortly after he beat
out rookie James Anderson for the job and is was expected that Anderson would
get the call if Diggs were unable to play on his sprained knee. Draft is a very
average player who has very limited fantasy potential. There is little doubt
that Anderson is a much better player so it must have been the experience factor
that made the decision. Dynasty owners should be looking hard at Seward and/or
Anderson... Need help at DB? Take a long look at Shaun Williams. He has a history
of solid production dating back to his days with the Giants and stepped up strong
with a team high 8-2-0 in the opener. Seward can be a quality player with a
little experience but any club that is forced to start Draft is in a bad way.
The Panthers may already be regretting the loss of Witherspoon. If Morgan misses
a lot of time the Panthers will struggle at LB which bodes well for Williams
continued production.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have to be feeling a little deja-vu after week 1. For the second
year in a row a very promising defensive unit has been beset with injuries right
out of the gate. MLB Ed Hartwell missed the opener and there is some speculation
that he may not return before at least week 4. To fill the void the coaching
staff made the same move as last season by sliding Keith Brooking inside and
plugging in Demorrio Williams at WLB. Just like last season the adjustment makes
Williams a viable fantasy option. Owners who are without Odell Thurman for a
few weeks might find Williams to be a perfect fit. On the other hand, there
is no guarantee that Hartwell will be 100% when he returns or anytime this season
for that matter. Williams put up a respectable 5-3-0 in the opener but didn't
do enough to draw a lot of attention, at least not yet. We know from experience
that he is capable of very strong production if he stays in the lineup. If you
have room to do it, roll the dice. Williams might come up a 7... On the first
series of Sunday's game Atlanta lost Patrick Kerney to a biceps injury. He played
only a few snaps the rest of the game and was ineffective. The good news is
that the injury is not a tear and Kerney is not expected to miss much time if
any. According to Kerney, he felt much better on Monday and stated that he expects
to play in week 2. The bad news is that he now becomes a very risky play for
us. At least until he has played a couple of games without further problems...
Adding injury to insult, the Falcons lost star free agent addition John Abraham
to a groin injury later in the game. The early word from Abraham is that its
not a serious injury and he doesn't expect to miss much time if any. Right...
anyone who saw him waddle off the field once he finally got up will attest to
the fact that it didn't look like a "mild strain". Abraham was hurting.
Keep in mind that he missed 9 games and 11 starts a few years back with the
same injury and also keep in mind that groin injuries don't heal fast. This
problem could be with him the rest of the season and it could get ugly. If the
Falcons are forced to go without either of their stud ends look for Chauncey
Davis to get the call but keep in mind that Rod Coleman can also play end and
was very productive from that position for a stint while playing in Oakland.
If both starters miss time or if either is out for an extended period, look
for Coleman to see time on the outside and Darrell Shropshire to get a lot more
work at tackle.
New York Jets
Kerry Rhodes only posted a 2-2-0 in week one but managed to bail out his owners
with an interception. Don't let the weak tackle production make you nervous.
Rhodes missed some time during the game with a minor ankle problem but eventually
returned to the game and displayed no ill effects. He's not expected to miss
any practice time or be limited heading to week 2. The other thing that had
a negative impact on Rhodes tackle numbers was the fact that Tennessee ran the
ball 25 times for only 88 yards which means the ball carriers rarely made it
past the LB level. In fact inside linebackers accounted for 16 tackles. It's
a safe bet that the Patriots running game will be more successful in week 2.
Tennessee Titans
When the Titans added Chris Hope I wrote that this would be our chance to see
if it was lacking talent or an unfriendly scheme that crippled the fantasy production
of the Titans SS position over the past several years. One week isn't a great
measuring stick but the early returns indicate it was the lack of talent. Tank
Williams was the starter at the position for several years and you can count
the number of times he reached 7 solo tackles on your fingers. Hope managed
a strong 7-2-0 in his first opportunity. It's way too early to crown him a stud
but if you are in need of help at the DB position you probably shouldn't wait
and see if he repeats in week 2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Shelton Quarles sidelined Barrett Ruud had an opportunity to impress in
week one but he didn't take full advantage of it. Ruud didn't play poorly and
did nothing to hurt his standing but he wasn't a difference maker and didn't
make the decision tough for the coaching staff when it comes to Quarles returning
to the lineup. Ruud finished the game with a forgettable mark of 3-5-0 and will
likely return to his backup role in week 2 as Quarles is expected to return.
Pittsburgh Steelers
I have to chuckle at all the owners who will leap on Joey Porter after his monster
game in the opener. Don't be the guy who chases every player who has a good
game. Porter is one of those players who will blow up 4 or 5 times over the
course of the season but take a close look at his box score before you get blinded
by the big fantasy total. Take away the big plays and Porter is 2-1-0. Base
your defensive player moves on consistency in the tackle columns. Porter went
for 11 sacks and 2 picks all of last year but only 40 tackles. If he were to
equal that production he only has 9 sacks and 1 pick left. Do you want to gamble
on when those will come?... Keep an eye on Troy Polamalu this week. He is working
through a sore shoulder and may be questionable for Monday night.
Oakland Raiders
If there is one thing I learned from the Raiders week 1 game it's that while
I love the Monday night double header, it's incredibly tough to stay awake in
the Eastern time zone when one team passes the ball all of 11 times and the
other doesn't score a point... On the important side there were some very interesting
numbers. Rookie Thomas Howard led the club in solo tackles, a backup tackle
went 7-1-0 and 6 players recorded at least 5 solo stops. Beware of the inflated
numbers. Bad as Oakland was in this one, there will not be many games in which
their opponent runs the ball 48 times... A lot of owners will be looking to
pick up Terdell Sands after his big game. He could turn out to be a solid addition
but then again he could be a one week wonder. In the first quarter San Diego
ran the ball for 90+ yards with most of them coming between the tackles. Sands
replaced Warren Sapp on the first series of the second quarter and the Chargers
were slowed to around 100 yards over the final 45 minutes. So what does this
mean? Is Sapp going to be replaced? Sands made a difference and probably earned
himself a little more playing time at the least. He's a 335 pound wide body
who is with the third team of his 4 year career. It's hard to fathom that he
will make a consistent fantasy splash but if your league requires tackles he
may be worth a shot.
San Diego Chargers
Don't get down on Terrence Kiel too quickly. Sure he only had 3 tackles in week
one but consider how lopsided the game was before you make a mistake and let
him go. The Raiders ran just 28 offensive plays that resulted in tackles, they
had just 87 yards on the ground and completed just 8 passes. All things considered
3 tackles from the safety position in this fiasco is fairly impressive.
Minnesota Vikings
Heading into week one what we needed to know about the Vikings was how the playing
time would break down for the linebackers. We heard all through the preseason
that E.J. Henderson was playing the best football of his career and that spilled
out on the field Monday night. Henderson's 6-1-0 was second on the club but
more importantly he remained on the field as a 3 down player. Napoleon Harris
played mostly on early downs and running situations. In the nickel he and Ben
Leber were replaced by Dontarious Thomas. I didn't get a confirmation on who
was handling the dime duties but I believe it was Henderson. If he is still
available in your league I suggest you see about getting him on your roster...
The Vikings played solid defense overall but the lack of pass rush was a surprise
and somewhat of a concern. They desperately need to get Erasmus James and Kevin
Williams going. The success of a Tampa-2 scheme relies on the front 4 providing
pressure. They don't want to have to commit linebackers or backs to make it
happen... Greg Blue made the start at FS for Dwight Smith who was being disciplined.
Meanwhile it was Darren Sharper who lined up at SS. With the change of position
could Sharper's big play potential takes a little hit but his tackle numbers
and consistency should get a boost.
San Francisco 49ers
There were reports during camp and the preseason that Tony Parrish had not yet
returned to form after suffering a nasty broken leg a year ago. Those reports
claimed he was on the verge of losing the starting job. Parrish was listed as
the official starter against Arizona but career backup Chad Williams saw the
vast majority of playing time at the SS position. As of Tuesday night I have
not seen any reports of an injury to Parrish leaving me to speculate that he
was benched during the game. Williams is a decent player who could have some
value if he comes away with the starting job here... Mike Adams had a big game
(7-1-0) from the FS position and is a guy who deserves some attention. The San
Francisco defense is far from finished with the rebuilding process and Adams
seems to have emerged as the teams best player at the safety positions and very
possibly a quality fantasy option.
Arizona Cardinals
He's not officially a rookie but having missed nearly all of his first year
with a knee injury the rookie corner rule still applies to Antrel Rolle. He
will be looked at by offensive coordinators as an inexperienced target to be
taken advantage of and will be picked on until he proves that he shouldn't be.
Rolle opened the season with a team high 7-1-0 for the Cardinals and may prove
to be one of the few corners who stands out as a serious fantasy option this
year. He reminds me of Nate Clements or Ronde Barber in that he's a big corner
who who doesn't shy away from contact and is used in a run support role. Chances
are he's long gone in leagues that require corners but he may have been overlooked
in a lot of other leagues... David Macklin opened as the starter opposite Rolle
but he was benched during the first half in favor of Eric Green who is likely
to retain the starting job going foreword. Green isn't the physical presence
that Rolle is and doesn't seem as eager to make plays in the running game but
for owners who must start corners he may prove a quality option... The word
out of Arizona is that Karlos Dansby will begin practicing late this week and
may be available for Sunday. He's expected to work at WLB and will undoubtedly
replace Orlando Huff at the position once he's ready to play full time... Calvin
Pace made his first regular season start at SLB but left the game early with
an ankle injury and was replaced by Darryl Blackstock. The injury isn't serious
and Pace reportedly will be ready for week 2... There aren't many leagues out
there in which Gerald Hayes hasn't been picked up yet but if you happen to be
in one of the few, get this guy on your team. He has some injury risk but has
remained healthy through the preseason and is going to be a stud if he stays
on the field. His 5-0-1 with a fumble recover in the opener is just the tip
of the iceberg.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints LB positions have been a rollercoaster ride throughout the preseason
and it may not be completely over yet. Scott Fujita has settled in as the starter
on the strong side and Scott Shanle seems to have gained a strong hold on the
WLB position. Both guys looked good against the offensively challenged Browns.
The one position that remains in question is MLB. Mark Simoneau was promoted
ahead of Alfred Fincher in the days leading up to the opener but don't count
on him holding the position for long. Simoneau reminds me of Dexter Coakley
in that he's a fast athletic linebacker but lacks a nasty streak that good linebacker
have. In short he's a finesse type who is best suited for to play WLB or hold
a backup role. The club landed Danny Clark after he was released by the Raiders
and once he has a little time to digest the defense he should push Simoneau
back to the bench. Clark is not a great player but he is physical, dependable
and is a good on field leader. Clark saw some action in a limited role against
Cleveland and we will likely see a lot more of him in week 2. You may not want
to move on Clark until he gains the starting nod but keep a close eye on the
situation and keep in mind that Clark produced a team high 98 solo tackles as
a Raider in '04. He could very well put up similar numbers in this situation...
The Saints are going young at the safety positions with second year man Josh
Bullocks starting at FS and rookie Roman Harper at SS. Both were very productive
in the opener where they finished at the top of the box scores. Bullocks put
up 5-1-0 and a pick and Harper 5-0-1. Bullocks was a late round pick in most
leagues but Harper went undrafted in many and may be available. These two both
looked very good in week one and are likely the long term answers at their respective
positions... Don't over react to the three sack performance turned in by Brian
Young. He was able to take advantage of a weak link in the Browns offensive
line and isn't going to be productive on a consistent basis.
Cleveland Browns
The battle between Chaun Thompson and D'Qwell Jackson went right down to the
wire but the rookie was given the nod in the opener and he played very well.
Jackson was the club's second leading tackler in against New Orleans with a
very solid 7-3-0. Considering the apparent state of the offense, Jackson should
continue to be a very productive option. He's long gone in dynasty leagues but
may have been overlooked in some redraft leagues... Despite being listed as
doubtful on the Friday injury report, Brian Russell suited up and played on
Sunday. I have to wonder if he was motivated by the possibility of losing his
starting job if he didn't play? Russell started at FS and managed to go the
whole way without a setback. Meanwhile Sean Jones got the nod at SS but as feared
the club also worked Brodney Pool into mix. The trio basically worked as safety
by committee which served to ruin the production of all three guys. So long
as the Browns continue to play all three of them it's probably best to avoid
this mess all together.
Philadelphia Eagles
In the preseason EOTG I talked about how the Eagles like to rotate so many defensive
linemen that it's tough for any of them to produce consistent fantasy numbers.
In week one Philly put an exclamation point on the term "DL rotation"
when they did a complete line change for each defensive series. Darren Howard
and Jevon Kearse started at the ends and worked the odd number series while
Trent Cole and Jaqua Thomas were in on the even numbered series. At tackle Darwin
Walker and Mike Patterson worked with Howard and Kearse with LaJuan Ramsey and
Broderick Bunkley working the even series. This strange approach seems to have
worked for the Eagles with the DL accounting for four of the five sacks on the
day but how much of that was the due to fresh legs rushing the passer and how
much was due to the traditionally inept pass blocking of the Texans OL? The
obvious problem for us is that this approach spreads the number out way too
far. The DE positions accounted for 6-1-4 but none of the players in the mix
could do better than 2 tackles. There is a lot of talent and potential here
but these guys don't get to play the Texans every week so fantasy owners should
try to avoid this mess... One other interesting note on the DL, Jerome McDougle
and Sam Rayburn were both healthy but inactive for the game... Second year WLB
Matt McCoy was on the watch list coming into the season. After leading the club
with a 8-1-0 and forcing a fumble in the opener he will be drawing a lot more
attention. Shawn Barber recorded a tackle in each of the first two series and
then vanished from the box scores while McCoy came on strong. Most importantly
McCoy saw action on passing downs late in the game which suggests that he may
have laid claim as the Eagles every down LB. The Eagles have been searching
for a stud WLB dating all the way back to James Darling and may have finally
found one. Don't hesitate to make a move for McCoy if you are in need at LB...
Philly lost starting corner Lito Sheppard for a few weeks with an ankle sprain
which makes Roderick Hood the starter. Playing opposite a quality cover guy
like Sheldon Brown, Hood will likely be picked on until Sheppard returns and
could have some value for owners in corner required leagues who like to micro-manage.
Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans is a kid that several of us here at Footballguys have been harping
on all through the preseason and what a debut. Ryans leads the league in tackles
after week one and is in line to be the best rookie linebacker since Zach Thomas
went 120-35-2 back in '96. He's long gone in dynasty leagues and no one needs
me to tell tell them to pick him up if he somehow slipped through the cracks
in your redraft league. A stellar young player on a team that will obviously
struggle, he could very well land in the top 10 or even top 5 as a rookie...
I have never been a fan of Morlon Greenwood but this team is going to struggle
and after releasing Sam Cowart with the final cuts they have no one on the roster
with any shot at replacing him. Ryans will obviously be the stud but in this
situation there should be enough leftovers to make Greenwood a decent #3 option
or quality depth.
Chicago Bears
Rookie Danieal Manning is not likely to beat out either of the starters at safety
this year but fate keeps giving him opportunity to get on the field and he is
taking advantage of every chance he gets. Manning saw extensive action in the
preseason while Mike Brown rested his sore Achilles. Brown was able to start
and go the distance at SS in the opener and reported no problems but FS Chris
Harris didn't fare so well. Harris suffered a sprained ankle against the Packers
which let the rookie get on the field late in the game. Manning soon made his
mark by intercepting a Favre pass in the red zone and preserving the shutout.
Harris's injury is not believed to be serious and he could return as soon as
this weekend. The way Manning has played, Harris doesn't want to give the youngster
too much of an opportunity. Dynasty owners with an opening on the taxi squad
or room to carry him should take a long look at Manning and/or tuck him away
for safe keeping... Manning wasn't the only Bears rookie to make a good showing
against the Packers. Mark Anderson was drafted to fill the void that Michael
Haynes was never able to, as the clubs #3 DE. He worked into the mix in the
opener and recorded one of the Bears 3 sacks on the day. Anderson won't displace
either of the starters in the short term but should there be an injury don't
hesitate to pluck him out of the free agent pool.
Green Bay Packers
A.J. Hawk owners shouldn't be overly concerned about his mediocre debut not
should anyone get too excited about Brady Poppinga leading the team in tackles
for the opener. The unexpected shift in box score production was directly related
to the Bears offensive game plan. They were either attacking some perceived
weakness in the Packers defense or taking advantage of their own strength. Poppinga
is a solid player and probably the best SLB the Packers have lined up in the
past decade but he's not a strong candidate for steady fantasy production.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags defense took a blow with the loss of DE Reggie Hayward who is gone
for the year with a torn Achilles. After the injury Marcellus Wiley replaced
Hayward for most of the game but the Jags will reportedly promote Rob Meier
to starter for the long haul. Meier has been with the Jaguars since '00 when
he was their 7th round draft pick but has never held a starting role on the
defense. The Jags will miss Hayward's pass rush production but the 293 pound
Meier is an above average pass rusher and should provide a little boost when
it comes to run defense. Don't expect much from him in the box scores however.
Look for Bobby McCray to have an increased role as well. He will likely see
more action in passing situations... Mike Peterson played with a sore knee in
week one. He suffered no setbacks and was pretty productive considering the
situation. He will probably be listed as questionable again for week 2 but will
likely play again. Unless you are stud rich at the LB position, Peterson belongs
in the lineup even if he is less than 100%, especially when you consider the
match up. Keep your eyes open late in the week to be sure nothing changes with
the injury situation.
Dallas Cowboys
Bradie James is supposed to be the Cowboys stud inside linebacker but don't
overlook the fact that Akinola Ayodele out produced him in the opener. James
plays the generally more productive left ILB position in the Cowboys 3-4 but
last season unable to harness the box score potential that the position provides.
Ayodele meanwhile is the kind of big physical presence that Parcells looks for
at the ILB position and his solid 7-0-0 in the opener may well be a prelude
of things to come. James has had plenty of opportunity to prove himself and
while he has played fairly well, he's not been the kind of difference maker
that the coaching staff would like. It's only one week so don't over react but
keep a close eye on this situation. Ayodele may prove to be a very worthy pickup...
Buffalo Bills
One of the questions we were looking to answer in week one was who would play
the LB positions in the Bills nickel and dime packages. Unfortunately Takeo
Spikes was forced out of the game with a hamstring injury before we had a chance
to see how that would play out. Against the Pats London Fletcher was the every
down guy and was joined in the nickel by Angelo Crowell. With Spikes gimpy that
will likely remain the case but we still can't be sure what will happen when
everyone is healthy. Spikes injury is worse than originally thought and he is
now expected to miss at least week 2 and possibly beyond. Grab Crowell if you
can... FS Troy Vincent was also lost to a hamstring problem during the game
but his injury was severe enough to have already landed him on IR. The Bills
had planned for rookie Ko Simpson to eventually takeover the job and Vincent's
injury simply accelerates the plan. The Bills FS position has not been a fantasy
friendly one over the years so we shouldn't be in any hurry to jump on Simpson
but he should be on our radar just in case... Heading into week one there was
uncertainty at the SS position with ever conflicting reports about who would
start and how the playing time would break down. Coy Wire did indeed get the
official call as starter but that was about it. Early in the game he was replaced
by rookie Donte Whitner who went the rest of the way recording a respectable
4-4-0 with a pick. There is no controversy entering week 2 as Whitner has already
been named the starter and is expected to play virtually full time. It's too
early in the season to throw in the towel but with Vincent and Spikes already
down and a pair of rookies starting at safety, are the Bills looking to the
future? It could be another long season for Bills fans.
New England Patriots
Tedy Bruschi took week one off to give his ailing wrist a little more healing
time. In his absence Junior Seau and Mike Vrabel handled the ILB positions.
Despite having never played in the middle Seau took to the new job like a fish
to water and led the club in tackles with a 5-3-0. Bruschi is expected to return
for week two which will allow the Pats to shift Vrabel back outside and is likely
to have an impact on Seau's production as well. This is another situation that
is tough to call until we see all the parts working together. That said, Seau
looks like a real good fit in the scheme and could prove to be a quality option
for us. He isn't going to be a stud but he could be productive and consistent
enough to provide quality depth as the season goes on and attrition thins the
ranks.
Kansas City Chiefs
Sammy Knight managed to hold onto the starting SS job through camp but a poor
outing in the opener may have severely loosened his grip. It was already anticipated
that Knight would be replaced at some point this season so it was not big surprise
that he was benched during the game. What was a surprise is that his replacement
was not second round pick Bernard Pollard as many expected. Instead Knight gave
way to rookie 7th round pick Jarrad Page. All the emphasis in KC at the moment
revolves around the QB situation so chances are we will not find out until Sunday
if Knight's demotion is permanent and/or if it is, who will get the start at
SS. The one thing that is certain at this point, it's not a good idea to have
Knight in your lineup this weekend. Stay tuned for further developments.
Cincinnati Bengals
In '05 the Bengals defense became one of the leagues premier big play units
but one area they were lacking in was the pass rush. If the opener is any indication,
that problem has been solved. With 3 sacks against the Chiefs Justin Smith is
well on his way to his first double digit sack total. Maybe it was the move
back to back to right end, maybe it's the fact that he's in a contract year
or maybe it has more to do with the unit finally hitting on all cylinders. Whatever
the cause Smith looked like a man on a mission and should be at the top of your
pickup list if you have a need at the position... Smith wasn't the only one
to break out against KC. Robert Geathers bulked up last year so he could handle
a full time role as starter. That didn't work out very well. This offseason
he trimmed back down and has returned to his role as a pass rush specialist.
The early results are very promising. He may not see a lot of action on early
downs with Bryan Robinson working there, but in passing situations Robinson
moves inside and Geathers is turned lose on the passer. His 2 sacks in the opener
were more than half of last years total. Its only one game but watching him
against the Chiefs brought visions of Robert Mathis to mind... Brian Simmons
led the Bengals in tackles despite being banged up and missing a series. He
returned later and is not expected to miss any time this week.
Best of luck to everyone this week!
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