Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
| ||||
|
|
Login / Signup |
|
Hello fellow fantasy addicts and welcome to the 10th edition of the annual Eyes of the Guru preseason IDP report. If you're looking for in depth coverage on the defensive side of the ball you have come to the right place. No one covers the game better than The Football Guys and I am proud that both I and the EOTG are a part of the team. You will find nothing but fantasy football in this report. No contract talk, no police reports. Only the stuff that matters. For reference, when I mention where guys finished in the rankings last season I generally use the North American Fantasy Football Addicts (NAFFA) league I have run for the past 10 years as my model. If you care to check it out feel free (NAFFA) Defensive scoring in this league is the standard stuff but keep in mind rankings will vary a bit from league to league. From time to time I will reference the "rookie corner rule". Those of you who are familiar with the EOTG report know what that is. For those who are new, the rookie corner rule is basically the fact that in the NFL starting a rookie at corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses thus these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Most often these guys are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon) and their numbers will begin to drop sharply after their rookie seasons. Without further adieu... on to the meat and potatoes. Buffalo Bills Defensive Line Buffalo had a horrible '05 campaign in which the defense struggled and the offense sputtered. With a defensive minded head coach in place it comes as no surprise that the club concentrated on that side of the ball over the off season. Ron Edwards left via free agency but with the additions of Larry Triplett and first round draft pick John McCargo, Edwards will not be missed. The Bills are one of several clubs moving toward the Tampa-2 scheme so they no longer need a big body space eater on the inside. Instead the new scheme calls for mobile athletic interior linemen. Both Triplett and McCargo fit that mold. Tim Anderson will likely be listed as a starter heading into camp but the Bills will use all three players extensively in a rotation. Triplett managed a career best 4 sacks for the Colts last season but has never totaled more than 28 solo stops in a season. Anderson is a marginal starter with limited upside which leaves McCargo as the wild card. He is probably the best pass rusher of the group and has some upside. The organization will be anxious for him to succeed since they were criticized for "reaching" to get him in the first round. There is not a great deal of fantasy potential here though owners in leagues that use DT and DE as separate positions could find some value in either McCargo or Triplett... Aaron Schobel has emerged as one of the leagues premier every down defensive ends and a very strong fantasy option. While '05 was his best season to date with a mark of 54-17-12, Schobel has a least 8 sacks in 4 straight seasons and his tackle production has steadily increased each year since he was a rookie in '01. He's a safe bet to finish in the top 10 again this year... It's a little surprising that Buffalo didn't add another pass rush threat to help take some pressure off Schobel. Instead they elected to stay with the status quo in Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney. While Kelsay holds the title of starter, for the past two years these guys have worked in a rotation which has held both short of fantasy consideration. Last season Kelsay bulked up to around 280 so he could slip inside on passing downs. With the additions at tackle he is no longer needed in that capacity and has dropped about 15 pounds so he can concentrate on improved pass rush skills. Sharing the position in '05 Kelsay and Denney combined for a pretty solid mark of 54-36-6.5. If either should be injured, the other could make a good in season pickup.
Linebacker London Fletcher is the IDP headliner in Buffalo. Since joining the club in '02 he has piled up 394 solo tackles with 94 being the low and a high of 104 last year. He's very consistent in the tackle department and is no stranger to big plays with 12.5 sacks, 7 takeaways and 3 forced fumbles along the way. Fletcher has finished each of his 4 seasons in Buffalo ranked among the top 15, with 3 top 8 finishes. In short he has been money in the bank for fantasy owners... When the Bills lost Takeo Spikes to an Achilles injury early last season it seemed to take the wind right out of their sails. His rehab has reportedly gone well and he was able to begin participating in June mini camps. Spikes is also a quality fantasy prospect but a lack of consistency lands him in a category well below that of Fletcher. Over his first 32 games with Buffalo, Spikes turned in some impressive big play numbers. His 6 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 8 recoveries and 7 picks were enough to land him in the top 20 both seasons. His career best fantasy finish was a top 10 in '04 but the fact that he totaled just 64 solo stops with 4 or fewer in 11 games, is enough to drop him considerably down your draft list. Consider Spikes a decent #2 or a quality #3 starter in most leagues... Jeff Posey has held the starting job on the strong side for the past few years but that is likely to change. When Spikes was lost last year Angelo Crowell stepped in and did an admirable job both for the Bills and for those astute owners who jumped on him. So much so in fact that the coaching staff is strongly considering ways to get him into the lineup. Obviously he won't supplant Fletcher or Spikes so the writing is on the wall for Posey. Moving to the Tampa-2 could make the decision even easier for the coaches since that scheme calls for both outside backers to have the skill set of a WLB. It's doubtful that Crowell will be productive in the shadow of both Fletcher and Spikes but should there be an injury, he has already proven his value. In 15 games last season he totaled 80-40-3 with 2 picks and 2 FF... Buffalo is very thin at LB heading into '06. To back up Fletcher they picked up Courtney Watson who the Saints were desperate to get rid of and at OLB the next in line would be Posey who is not very well suited for the new scheme.
Defensive Back There is plenty to talk about here so lets start with the scheme change. The move to a Tampa-2 base defense will have a lot of impact on the distribution of fantasy production in the secondary. In this scheme the corners will play a lot of press/man coverage and be up near the line often while the safeties are responsible for keeping everything in front of them and usually line up very deep. In principle this makes the corners good fantasy options as they will be called upon often in run support. Nate Clements is a big physical safety who is a perfect fit in this scheme. Clements blew away his previous career best when he piled up 81 solo stops last season en-route to a top 10 fantasy finish. Between his talents and the new scheme, Clements should become one of the very few corners who can be counted on for consistent quality production... Generally it is the right corner who provides the better fantasy production in a Tampa-2 secondary so even though Terrence McGee has good size and is a quality corner, he will likely play second fiddle to Clements in the box scores. He should have value for those owners in leagues that require corners but for the rest of us he will probably fall a bit short... Eric King figures to handle the nickel duties this year. He stepped into that role during the second half of last season and did a solid job. An injury to either of the starters will land him a starting role but at just 5'8" and 185, he is not exactly the prototype starting corner for the scheme... Things are going to get very interesting at the safety positions. Troy Vincent has prolonged his career but has not been much of a factor either on the field or in the box scores since making the move to FS. He is 35 years old and the club spent a 4th round pick on his heir apparent Ko Simpson. There is a lot of speculation that Simpson will claim the starting job at some point during the season and if the Bills get off to a slow start it could happen early. Keep in mind however, that the Bills FS position is not a fantasy friendly one. There have been no Buffalo free safeties with fantasy value in over a decade... Last year's starting SS Lawyer Milloy jetted to Atlanta and veteran Matt Bowen was added via free agency to fill the void. Then the Bills surprised us by using the 8th overall pick on Donte Whitner. The two will battle throughout training camp for the starting job though it's a given that Whitner will eventually capture the position. Even if he is not playing on every down in September, you can be sure he will have a role and that it will cut into Bowen's box scores. There are a lot of people who are very high on Whitner at this point but I would suggest caution. While at Ohio State he was a very physical, lower the boom kind of presence. In the Tampa-2 scheme both safeties play more of a free safety type role. With Clements close to the line, Spikes healthy, Fletcher sucking up tackles and Whitner lining up in center field often, I just don't know how productive the SS can be here. On the other hand, Whitner has a lot of talent and upside.
New England Patriots Defensive Line Of all the 3-4 defenses in the league New England has arguable the best front three. Ty Warren, Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork are all an excellent fit for the jobs they are asked to do. Unfortunately none of them are so good that they are able to overcome the limitations of a 3-4 scheme to make a serious box score impact. Back in '03 Seymour turned in his best fantasy finish with a mark of only 35-20-8. His ranking was aided that year by a freakish 10 passes defended, a number he has not come close to in any of his other three seasons. Neither Warren nor Wilfork have ever reached 4 sacks or put up more than 40 solo tackles in a season. Simply put, the 3-4 scheme is a black hole when it comes to fantasy production from the front 3... With Marquise Hill and Jarvis Green the Pats have some talent and experience backing up the DE positions and they traded for underachieving former Saints first round pick Johnathan Sullivan to back up at NT so depth shouldn't be an issue.
Linebacker Just a few years back linebacker was a position that was so deep that the coaching staff devised schemes that would give all the good players an opportunity to contribute. That philosophy virtually insured that no one played in every situation which in turn ruined all of them when it came to fantasy production. Fortunately for us those days have passed and the coaches now find themselves struggling to fill the starting roles with quality players. Monty Beisel was added last season to help offset the loss of Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson. Beisel played long enough before Bruschi returned, to prove that he is not the guy for the job on a full time basis. The organization is trying to put a positive spin on the situation this off season by talking about how much more comfortable he is now and how he has improved. If that is the case why have they moved Mike Vrabel inside as a starter? Beisel looked like a turnstile at times last season and while he may be more comfortable with the scheme, he is not a good tackler. If he does land a significant role it will be out of desperation... Bruschi was able to return last year and prove that he can still play at the same high level. He was a little inconsistent while working his way back into the full time role but will be full speed from the opening whistle this season. With the situation as it is, Bruschi should be on the field in all situations and could very well eclipse the career best 79 tackles he put up in '03. He is a smart player who is always a big play threat. Over his 10 pro seasons Bruschi has 27 sacks, 18 forced fumbles, 11 picks and 4 TDs. In the past his modest tackle production has limited him to being a solid #3 starter or excellent depth. He should retain at least that value but could step up some in the tackle column... Mike Vrabel is a very versatile veteran who is just as comfortable at any of the linebacker positions. He's seen plenty of action at ILB in the past so there will be no transition issue at all. There is also a good chance that the defensive staff will move him around and he could still line up at OLB in nickel situations. Vrabel posted career best box score production of 73-35-4.5 last season when he played on the inside regularly. He broke into the top 30 in most scoring systems and could continue to be a productive backup in '06. Don't expect much more than that from him though... Rosevelt Colvin is an excellent 3-4 OLB. In '05 he was finally healthy and gave the Patriots the strong outside pass rush that they expected he would. He may never bust the 50 tackle mark due to the limitations of the scheme but Colvin could very well push double digits in sacks. This is where the problem comes in. The Pats lost long time cornerstone Willie McGinest in free agency and will attempt to replace him with special teams guy Tully Banta-Cain, who has a total of 14 tackles to show for 3 years in the league. To his credit Banta-Cain also has 3.5 sacks in his very limited playing time so just maybe the Pats are looking to spring their secret weapon on the league? At any rate, the consistent fantasy productive position in a 3-4 is the LILB. Vrabel could make for depth in large leagues, Colvin will have good value in leagues that stress big play in their scoring and Banta-Cain could be a surprise in those same leagues, but for the majority of us Bruschi is the only value here and he is no stud.
Defensive Back The Patriots defensive backfield had more injuries than a war zone in '05. So bad was it in fact that Artrell Hawkins and Michael Stone were both plucked off the street and each ended up making starts. There are a lot of names in the mix heading into training camp as the gun shy Patriots have 19 defensive back on the roster. Strong safety Rodney Harrison holds the key to all the fantasy production here. In his first two seasons as a Patriot he piled up 183 solo stops, 72 assists, 7 sacks, 5 forced fumbles 5 picks and back to back #1 finishes in the fantasy rankings. Harrison will be 34 in December and is rehabbing from a very nasty knee injury suffered in week three. He has not taken part in offseason workouts and will likely not participate in training camp for at least the first couple of weeks. Both Harrison and the organization say that he is doing well and they expect him to be available for the opener but have you ever heard anyone claim differently when recovering from injury? It was as ugly an injury as you will ever see and will be very tough to come back from, especially at this point in his career. Believe it when you see it. That said, if Harrison is able to get on the field even at 80% he will have good value... Over rated journeyman Tebucky Jones has migrated back to New England where his career began and will serve as an insurance policy behind Harrison. Despite golden opportunities in New Orleans and Miami, Jones has impressed neither in the box scores nor on the field. At least not enough to keep his job. That said, If Harrison struggles to make it back Jones will be in a great situation. Heck even Michael Stone averaged nearly 6 solo tackles a game last year over the 4 game stretch when he played full time... Eugene Wilson is a lock to start and will likely remain at FS even though the coaches gave him some work at corner over the offseason Wilson was the only player in the secondary to start all 16 games in '05. While he is a very solid player for the Patriots, Wilson's box score production falls well short in fantasy terms. Over his three years as a starter Wilson has yet to break into the top 50... Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs are slated to open as the starting corners. There are several names on the roster behind them but no one that is likely to pose a serious threat. Eric Warfield, Chad Scott and Randall Gay will compete for jobs in the nickel and dime packages... History shows us that none of the Patriots corners are likely to have much impact, though Hobbs might have some value for owners who must start corners.
Miami Dolphins Defensive Line Heading into the '05 season everyone was concerned about Jason Taylor because the club was talking about a move to the 3-4. Obviously we can all relax. Taylor certainly didn't struggle, in fact he put up a career best 52 solo stops and 12 sacks while ranking #1 at the position in most scoring systems. The Fins will continue to tinker with some 3-4 alignment but it doesn't look as though they plan to make it their primary base scheme anytime in the near future. Taylor has been a perennial top 10 DL since the '00 season and there is no reason to believe that will change... Kevin Carter enters camp as the undisputed starter opposite Taylor though the coaching staff would like to see second year man Matt Roth make their decision a little tougher. Carter will turn 33 during the season but is still a very solid if unspectacular option. He ranked in the top 40 at the end of last season, his best finish since leaving the Rams back in '00. Carter could provide solid depth in most leagues but his lack of upside is enough to keep him off my rosters... Roth was active for 15 games and saw a little action as a rookie. He is still on the learning curve but could earn more playing time this year in passing situations. The Dolphins hope he can emerge as another Adewale Ogunleye by next season. He's a player to keep an eye on as the year progresses... Keith "Tractor" Traylor was added last season to play the under tackle position in the 4-3 and/or nose tackle in the 3-4. While he is a good fit for the team, Traylor will be 37 in September and is very near the end of his playing days. To that end Miami snatched up 329 pound Manuel Wright in the supplemental draft last year and are grooming him for the job. Unfortunately the responsibilities of the UT position are such that even very talented players struggle in the box scores... Former DE turned 3 technique tackle Vonnie Holliday played very well for the Fins last season. Most importantly he was able to stay healthy and play a full season. The smallish but quick Holliday seems to have found a home that fits his talents well. The 37-16-6 mark he put up in '05 landed him a top 30 finish and were his best numbers since '01 when he was still in Green Bay. Numerous injuries have deflated Holliday's career and make him a risk but he should make a decent backup in most leagues and deserves starter consideration in leagues that break out the DL positions. Should Holiday go down look for veteran Jeff Zgonina to step back into the lineup. He is a very solid player who should provide similar production to Holliday if he's plugged into the starting role.
Linebacker If there were a fantasy hall of fame Zach Thomas would be a shoe in. Year after year he is among the top 10 and often among the top 5 at the position. Entering his 11th season Thomas doesn't seem to be slowing down at all. In fact he tallied 107 solo tackles last season in only 14 games. Owners in leagues that score total tackles (combine solo and assists) will place Thomas on an even higher pedestal as he is perennially among the league leaders in assists. Only twice in 10 seasons has he totaled fewer than 50 and one of those two was the '00 campaign when he missed the final 5 games and still finished with 43. There is some concern with Thomas however. Since '99 he has played a full slate of games only once. With over 1400 solo tackles in his career, Thomas has a lot of miles on him but even with the risk he should be drafted at the bottom of the elite group... The club spent a third round pick on Channing Crowder last year in hope that he can be the eventual successor to Thomas. As a rookie he was inserted at WLB where he displayed signs that make many think he could some day be just as good. While Thomas remains in the picture no Miami LB has much of a chance but if you draft Thomas early it might be a good idea to pick up Crowder late as insurance. Dynasty owners should be all over this kid. You may have to be patient for another year or two but it will eventually pay off... Donnie Spragen is the favorite to emerge from camp as the starter on the strong side. Sedrick Hodge was added to provide depth and competition. Under the current set of circumstances neither player is any threat to become a fantasy factor. Should Thomas go down, Crowder would likely move inside with Spragen or Derrick Pope filling the void at WLB.
Defensive Back If there is an Achilles heel for the Dolphins defense it is the secondary. Long gone are the days when Miami's defensive coaches could line up Samari Rolle and Sam Madison on an opponents top 2 receivers and consider them covered. The '06 version of the secondary sports Giants throw away Will Allen at right corner, last years 4th round pick Travis Daniels at left corner and either '04 4th rounder Will Poole or journeyman type Andre Goodman as the nickel back. Allen's lack of big play production contributed to the Giants decision that an upgrade was needed. While he is a decent cover corner, Allen produced just 4 interceptions over his final 4 seasons in New York and none at all in '05. He did managed decent tackle numbers for a corner over the past couple of years but 64-8-0 with no takeaways doesn't make for much fantasy value. Daniels made 14 starts as a rookie but the rookie corner rule didn't come into play and he made no splash at all in the IDP pool. Like Allen he demonstrated good cover skills but lacked a knack for the big play. Daniels only pick came in week one when he was working as the nickel back. Will Poole showed some promise as a rookie in '04 but spent last season on IR with a knee injury. The club hopes he can be back in time to contend for the nickel job but it looks like Goodman has the inside track. Goodman has his own injury issues. He's missed 21 games over his 4 year career and has yet to stay healthy for a full 16 game season. Like all the other options, Goodman is not a serious big play threat with only 5 interceptions in his career stat line. In all the Dolphins top 4 CB prospects have just 14 career interceptions and none have shown the ability to put up good tackle number with any consistency. Look elsewhere for production... The safety position is just as questionable. Rookie first round pick Jason Allen will compete with Deke Cooper for the starting job at FS. This training camp battle should be short as Cooper is basically a backup quality veteran journeyman who should continue making his living on special teams. The situation at SS is not much better. Career backup Travaris Tillman is penciled in as the starter heading into camp. Tillman has been given several opportunities over the course of his career and each time he has proven to be a better practice player than starter. Former corner Renaldo Hill played well in a hybrid SS position for the Raiders last season. While he is certainly no stud, there is a very good chance he will emerge from camp as the starting SS and become the best fantasy option of this unimpressive group... The fantasy prospectus of this unit is not at all bright. Having played with IDPs since 1994 I can not remember a single Miami DB who has provided any serious fantasy production. Brock Marion probably came the closest but even he was good for no better than depth.
New York Jets Defensive Line The Jets made major changes to the defense over the offseason There are a few new names in the mix but the main difference will be the scheme as the Jets join the ranks of clubs using the 3-4. John Abraham "jetted" to Atlanta and the club signed former Steeler Kimo von Oelhoffen as his replacement. Oelhoffen is a proven commodity as a 3-4 end and his experience will help greatly as the other linemen learn the scheme. He has very little fantasy value however. The closest Oelhoffen has ever come to fantasy production was 27 tackles and 8 sacks for Pittsburgh a couple of years back... In '03 Shaun Ellis emerged as a very strong fantasy option with 48 solo stops and 12.5 sacks. In '04 his numbers slipped but he was still a solid option, then last year the bottom fell out completely. In his defense, Ellis has fought through some nagging injuries over the past two seasons. He may be healthy in '06 but the switch to the IDP unfriendly 3-4 will likely be the final nail in the coffin so far as fantasy production is concerned... Behind the starters at end the Jets have very little talent. On the depth chart Trevor Johnson is listed behind Oelhoffen but at only 260 pounds he is not a good fit in the new scheme. 300 pound journeyman Monsanto Pope will likely be the top backup... Dewayne Robertson could prove to be an excellent fit at the NT position. At just under 320 he has the girth to be successful and his uncommon athletic ability for a big man will make him a nightmare for centers across the league. In fantasy terms however, Robertson has been a non factor in his three pro seasons and will have little opportunity to improve in the new scheme.
Linebacker There were a lot of people giving me grief last year when I ranked Jonathan Vilma in the top 5 heading into the season. He made me look good by simply exploding. In just his second pro season Vilma piled up a league high 128 solo stops on the way to finishing as the top IDP at any position in most leagues. Many of those same critics are concerned that the Jets switch to a 3-4 will have a significant negative impact on his box scores in '06. To that notion I say hog wash! I've heard the argument that he's not a good fit, he's too small and that he won't have anyone up front to protect him. It was said that Ray Lewis wasn't a good fit when Baltimore went 3-4 and all he did was total 340 tackles in 3 seasons. At 227 pounds Donnie Edwards was too small to be successful in a 3-4 but over the past three years he's racked up 336 solo stops. Anyone who thinks the Jets have no one up front to protect Vilma needs to watch some game film of Dewayne Robertson. I'll admit that Vilma could lose a handful of tackles to the new scheme but he will still top the 100 solo mark and will have more opportunity to make big plays. Anyone who drops Vilma out of their top 3 in in for a surprise... Eric Barton will be Vilma's sidekick on the inside in the new scheme. He missed most of last season with injuries but is a very solid player who should take to the new scheme like a fish to water. Barton has good size at 6'2" and 245, and good pass rush skills which is a big plus as he will be called upon to blitz often. With this being the first year in the new scheme and the Jets basically being in a rebuilding mode, there should be opportunity for Barton to produce even in the shadow of Vilma. Don't count on him as a starter but he should be worthy as a quality backup and would be very productive if Vilma were to be injured... The Jets added former Titans starter Brad Kassell for depth on the inside. Kassell is a solid experienced veteran but is no real threat to earn significant playing time unless Barton or Vilma are injured... Quality play from the OLB positions is key to the success of any 3-4 defense. Lack of talent at those positions could be a problem for the Jets this year. Converted DE Bryan Thomas is the clubs best prospect. Thomas is a former first round pick who up to this point, has been a bust as a defensive end. To his credit '05 was his most productive season to date with a mark of 25-12-4 so there is some reason for optimism. Thomas has the physical tools so just maybe the new scheme will prove to be his calling... Former 4-3 SLB Victor Hobson is penciled in at the other OLB position. While he performed well in the Jets 4-3 over the past three seasons there is very little Hobson has done to suggest he has the skill set to play outside in a 3-4. He has just 3 career sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 recovery and 2 interceptions over his first 38 pro games. Hobson could face a challenge from Matt Chatham who came over from the Patriots. Chatham has had injury issues and doesn't have much on his resume' when it comes to statistics but he does have 3 years of experience in the 3-4 scheme. Chances are, if the Jets elect to stick with the 3-4 we will see them strongly address the OLB position before the '07 season.
Defensive Back The Jets will have the leagues youngest secondary this season with 3 of the 4 starters having 2 of fewer years of experience. In fact there are only 3 defensive backs on the roster with more than 2 years in the league. Second year man Justin Miller will move into the lineup at corner opposite veteran David Barrett. Miller gained much needed experience while seeing extensive action as the nickel corner last season. Both he and Barrett have good size and bring a physical presence to the position that the club is excited about and will look to take advantage of. It's tough to call how the box score production will break down between these two. Barrett has a history of decent tackle numbers having averaged about 64 over the 3 seasons prior to last. During those seasons he was basically the #2 corner. Last year as the Jets #1 he fell off the pace a little with 41 tackles in 13 games. Much will depend this year on how offenses perceive the situation. If they view Miller as a weak link due to inexperience he will be a busy man, but if Miller is seen as #1 clubs may elect to pick on the more experienced yet less talented Barrett. If the Jets struggle to create a pass rush with the front 7 (as I believe they will) the corners may be called upon to blitz often which could give their numbers a boost. Neither of these guys are likely to have much fantasy impact in most leagues but one or both could be worthy of consideration if your leagues requires corners... In Andre Dyson and Derrick Straight the Jets have a pair of competent veteran backups who will contend for the nickel corner job. Neither will be any fantasy factor... The Jets are very young at the safety positions but at least SS Kerry Rhodes and FS Erik Coleman have crammed a lot of experience into their short careers. Coleman has been in the league for 2 seasons and has 32 starts while Rhodes started all 16 games as a rookie last year. Both players racked up tackle numbers in the 80's in '05 and finished in the top 15 of most scoring systems despite playing behind Vilma the tackling machine. Both are strong candidates to continue being very productive but I am a little leery of Coleman for a couple of reasons. There are rumors that rookie Eric Smith will be given an opportunity to win the FS job. Coleman has played well so I don't see this as a serious threat but it is reason for concern. The bigger issue when it comes to Coleman's fantasy value, is the scheme. Box score productive free safeties in 3-4 schemes are a rarity. We need look no further than last year for proof. Eugene Wilson 50 tackles, Brian Russell 47, Bhawoh Jue 34, Keith Davis 47, C.C. Brown 54, Mike Adams 59. In fact only the Steelers Chris Hope with 79 solo stops in '05, lends "hope" that Coleman will continue to be very solid.
Cincinnati Bengals Defensive Line Sam Adams may be getting up in years at 33 but he remains one of the best run stuffing interior linemen in the game. He will only play on early downs and is one of those guys who make a much bigger contribution on the field than in the box score. While he is the only significant personnel addition up front, the trickle effect will go much further... The Bengals still have last year's starters John Thornton and Bryan Robinson who are both good football players. Thornton is a smallish but quick and athletic type who rushes the passer well from the inside. He has 11 sacks over his three years in Cincy. Robinson is a versatile hard working player who doesn't make "special" plays but is very dependable. The other player who factors into the plan at tackle is 320 pound Shaun Smith who was picked up off waivers from the Saints last year and saw a little playing time on early downs... At defensive end Justin Smith has been the anchor for several years. Smith is a solid every down player who has never stepped all the way up to the plate in terms of box scores. Before last season Smith was moved to left end which is generally not where a team lines up its best pass rusher. Despite a great deal of anticipation, the result was another mediocre season with 45 solo tackles and 5.5 sacks. History proves that Smith can be counted on year after year for 40+ tackles and 5-7 sacks. That said, the Bengals defense has improved and he is moving back to right end. Could '06 be that long anticipated breakout season?... In '04 Robert Geathers earned a part time role late in the season. He put up 3.5 sacks in very limited playing time and made such an impression that he was promoted to starter in '05. To prepare for the full time role Geathers added about 15 pounds. The results weren't good. Geathers has shed the weight, regained his quickness, moved back to left end where he is being counted on to make a much bigger contribution in '06. If he doesn't, don't be surprised if we see quite a bit of 3rd round pick on Frostee Rucker. Rucker is generally viewed as more of a project who is expected to make a contribution on some passing downs as a rookie. If Geathers struggles again Rucker's learning curve could be accelerated. At the least his presence will send a loud message... Cincinnati made a lot of big plays last season yet the run defense continued to struggle. They also finished way too close to the bottom of the league with just 28 sacks. The run D got a big upgrade when Sam Adams was signed early in free agency, but that is only the beginning of the plan. An overview look like this; on running downs Adams and Shaun Smith are at tackle with Robinson and Justin Smith at end. In passing situations Thornton replaces Smith at tackle while Adams goes out, Robinson slides inside and Geathers comes in at left end. The end result is that Justin Smith is the only guy who plays on all downs. If Marvin's plan works, Smith could finally have that break out year but no one else is worth spending a pick on at this point.
Linebacker The Bengals enter '06 with talent, depth, and youth at linebacker. MLB Odell Thurman is the fantasy headliner of the group. Thurman's tackle totals as a rookie were a less than stellar 68-36 but the youngster demonstrated signs of future greatness while proving to be a play maker with 5 picks, 5 forced fumbles, 1.5 sacks and 9 passes defended. The year of experience alone will make a big difference in the tackle column but the addition of Sam Adams and the game plan up front may be an even bigger factor. With a pair of big bodies in front of him on early downs Thurman is going to have much more room to roam. It's a simple equation, comfort zone + room to run = big production for Thurman. The problem is, we won't see any production from him at all until week 5 when he returns from suspension... Before Thurman was drafted Brian Simmons had been the best fantasy option among Bengals linebackers. While he still has some value, his tackle numbers took a serious beating in '05 as they dropped all the way from 76-31 in '04 to 52-32 last season. Simmons was able to counter some of that loss by making more big plays. The presence of Thurman allows the coaches to move him around and take advantage of his play making skills. The result last year was 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 2 picks and a career high 7 passes defended. '05 saw Simmons drop from an '04 ranking in the low 20 range to the low 40s. Simmons should rebound a little in the tackle column, especially with Thurman sitting out the first month of the season. He should continue to make a solid backup... David Pollack is probably the Bengals best pass rusher and they plan to let him prove it in '06. As a rookie he was a little sluggish while making the switch from college DE to pro SLB, and failed to land a starting job. It has already been announced that Pollack will start this year. Even more importantly, he will stay on the field as an outside rusher in many passing situations. Marvin Lewis drafted Pollack with visions of '02 when LaVar Arrington went 70-25-11 from SLB while when they worked together in Washington. It remains to be seen if Pollack can live up to those grand expectations but he will be given the chance... Landon Johnson will serve as the top backup to all three positions and is expected to get the call at MLB at least through September. He lacks great rush skills but is a very dependable player who would start for a lot of clubs. If an injury should land him at MLB or WLB on a full time basis, he would make a very good pick up... Rookie A.J. Nicholson has a lot of talent but comes with plenty of off field baggage to go with it. He's already been arrested once. Will he become fast friends with Chris Henry or get his head out of his @#$ before it's too late? Only time will tell but one thing is certain, the kid can play... Cincy added yet another player with questionable character when they selected Ahmad Brooks in the supplemental draft. Brooks is initially expected to work at SLB and is likely to see very little action early on. The question this move brings to up in my mind is, does Brooks fit at OLB in a 3-4? We just may find out come next season.
Defensive Back With the addition of first round pick Johnathan Joseph the Bengals are both strong and deep at the corner positions. Each of their starters have been to the pro bowl over the past two seasons with Tory James making the trip after an '04 campaign in which he finished second in the league with 8 picks, and Deltha O'Neal getting the honor last season after leading the league with 10. Cincinnati's defensive scheme is predicated on the big play so either or both players could be in contention for the league interception crown again in '06. The problem is, like most NFL corners, these two can be a little inconsistent from year to year. O'Neal is the more safe option. He was on pace for 51 solo tackles and 7 picks in '04 but missed 5 games with injury. Last year he put up 56 tackles to compliment the interception total and finished in the top 10 of most scoring systems. His week to week consistency is typical for a corner. Six times in '05 he was good for 4 or fewer points while he had a couple of huge games to bump the average up. To owners who are required to start corners O'Neal is a stud. To the rest of us consistency is a big concern. Unless you like to play roulette he shouldn't be counted on for more than a #3 starter or bye week depth... James is 33 years old and nearing the end of his contract. While still a solid corner and a good fit in the scheme, James could begin to lose snaps to Joseph this season if the rookie plays well. Even if that doesn't happen don't count on James too heavily. In '03 he finished around #45, in '04 he was 18th then last year he dropped back into the 50 range. He's simply not very dependable... Keiwan Ratliff will compete with Joseph for nickel duties this season and could play his way into contention for a starting job when James moves on... The safety position is not nearly as secure or at least not as deep. Madieu Williams returns from last year's shoulder injury and is the prime candidate of the group. Much has changed since '04 when he led the club in tackles. Certainly not the least of factors to consider is that Williams has switched to free safety and will line up further from the line of scrimmage. All these points are food for thought but don't overlook the fact that Williams was a solid 15-4-0 with a pick in the three full games he was able to play in '05. Also consider that the new position should provide more opportunity to make big plays. Williams is always around the ball and totaled 2 sacks, 3 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries and a TD in '04 despite playing mostly strong safety. Due simply to uncertainty and injury concerns his stock falls a little from where he was heading into last season, but that only means he can be had a little later on draft day. Williams should remain a quality fantasy option so long as the shoulder holds up... The Bengals played much of last season with backup Kevin Kaesviharn and street free agent Ifeanyi Ohalete starting at safety. Kaesviharn will return to his special teams role and the club added former Super Bowl MVP Dexter Jackson to fill the need at SS. Between Williams and Thurman there will be plenty of competition for tackles but Jackson should be able to hold his own. He doesn't come without his own injury issues however. He missed 5 games last season with hamstring problems.
Cleveland Browns Defensive Line In '05 Orpheus Roye had his name etched on the wall of fame for those few DL who have ever overcome the 3-4 scheme to be highly fantasy productive. While his 5 sacks were nothing to write home about, Roye somehow managed to rack up 65 solo tackles and lead not only all 3-4 linemen but all linemen in any scheme. This was an impressive feat but don't make the mistake of expecting him to repeat it. Roye nearly doubled the best production from any of his previous 9 seasons, including the 4 he spent at DE in the Steelers 3-4 from '96 to '99. He didn't suddenly find his way after 10 seasons, it was a fluke. Roye is a solid player and an excellent fit at the position. He may have some value again in '06 but will be hard pressed to total better than 45 tackles and 5 sacks. He should be considered a solid #3 starter or good depth but will likely be over drafted based on last years big numbers... Alvin McKinley is also a good fit in the scheme. '05 was his first year as a full time starter and he performed admirably totaling a very solid 45-23-5 and finishing in the top 40. Like Roye, McKinley is a guy you might pick up late in your draft to provide depth but any upside he might have will be limited by the scheme... At age 38 NT Ted Washington is the oldest starting DL in the game. Combine the fact that he is highly unlikely to be an every down player with the fact that he is playing the least favorable position in the game when it comes to box score production, and you have a guy with no value at all. Nick Eason will likely see a lot of action spelling the big man but like Washington, is not going to be a fantasy factor... I can't remember any 3-4 defense landing both ends in the top 40 and have to admit it is an impressive accomplishment. On the other hand this is a unit that looks much improved heading into '06 so there will likely be fewer opportunities. When you draft keep in mind that the upside for any lineman in this scheme is very limited.
Linebacker Romeo Crennel was happy with the play of his DL last season but his dissatisfaction with the linebackers may produce as many as 3 new starters in '06, with ILB Andra Davis as the only safe returnee. Davis is the centerpiece of the Browns improving D and has been a top 12 LB for two of the past three seasons in most scoring systems. In the other one ('04) he was on pace for 80+ solo stops when an injury shut him down. Davis has proven to be very dependable and consistent both on the field and in the box scores. He is not particularly fast but is a big intimidating hitter who over his last 27 starts, has fallen short of six combined tackles only twice. Davis lacks great cover skills but in the past has remained on the field in passing situations anyway. That isn't likely to change right away but he could eventually lose some of those snaps to rookie D'Qwell Jackson. Jackson is an interesting prospect. At 230 pounds, he lacks ideal size for an ILB in the 3-4 and is not particularly fast. He does however have excellent instincts, plays smart and anticipates very well. Jackson doesn't cover man to man well but is dependable in zone coverage. He has a nose for the ball and a knack for making big plays. During his college career Jackson led Maryland in tackles for three consecutive seasons leading the conference in '04, while recording 10.5 sacks and 6 interceptions. He will contend with Chaun Thompson for the starting RILB job during camp but many have already penciled him in as the starter... Thompson is a good football player who just can't seem to find a home in the starting lineup. He spent last season working at OLB in the Browns 3-4 and did an adequate job, but lacks the pure rush skills to excel at the position. He is a big physical player who was originally projected at MLB when the Browns drafted him in the second round in '03. He's fast for a 250 pounder but struggles with technique in pass coverage. The training camp battle between he and Jackson stands to be a very intense one with a good deal of fantasy implication. At worst Thompson's versatility will make him the Browns top replacement at all LB positions. At best he starts beside Davis and is a solid #3 fantasy option or very strong depth... Outside linebackers are the key to any successful 3-4 scheme. In '05 the Browns were lacking the horses to pull the cart but '06 may be a very different story. Via free agency they added proven veteran Willie McGinest who not only improves the talent level but will be like having an extra coach on the field. He has more experience with the 3-4 than most of the assistant coaches and even at age 34 is still a productive player. With 78 career sacks to his credit, McGinest is among the leagues active leaders in that category, however only once in his career has he recorded more than 50 solo tackles in a season. He should have a full time role with the Browns and could be fantasy productive for owners in leagues that overvalue sacks... The other important addition at OLB is rookie Kamerion Wimbley who looks like a good fit in this scheme. He is a natural athlete, has good speed and is very quick off the line with an excellent up field burst. Last year Wimbley faced both D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Eric Winston who were first round draft picks. He was able to hold his own against Ferguson and made Winston look bad. Wimbley is more than just a pass rusher. He is solid in coverage and able to run with most tight ends. Wimbley uses good technique both in coverage and as a dependable tackler who rarely misses. He missed most of the final 4 regular season games as a senior with a sprained knee but still totaled 7.5 sacks for Florida State last year. Wimbley has the potential to produce Shawn Merriman type numbers but it would be a mistake to expect that of him as a rookie. Like McGinest, Wimbley could have good value for owners in leagues that overvalue sack production.
Defensive Back Daylon McCutcheon ended last season with 71 solo tackles, ranking 11th among corners in that category. Those numbers alone would suggest that he is a very strong prospect but look further before selecting him. Over the three seasons prior to last McCutcheon missed 13 games with injury and failed to produce more than 2 interceptions in any season. In fact over his 7 years in the league he's posted only 12 picks with 4 of those coming back in '01. He's played a full slate of games only 3 times but to his credit McCutcheon recorded at least 71 solo stops in each of those seasons. He's a solid corner with good cover skills and is in no danger of losing his starting job. For owners in leagues that require corners he's a good late round prospect... Gary Baxter is expected to take over as the Browns #1 corner after missing most of last season with a torn pectoral muscle. He is a versatile player who spent most of his career playing safety for the Ravens so don't bother looking at his Baltimore numbers for comparison. At 6'2" and 210, Baxter is huge for a corner and plays a very physical game. He will match up well with the leagues bigger receivers but lacks blazing speed and is vulnerable against small fast ones. The 3-4 scheme calls for everyone to blitz at times which will play to Baxter's strength. There is a good chance he can be productive in this scheme so consider him a deep sleeper in regular leagues and a strong sleeper if you must start corners... Leigh Bodden spent much of last season as a starter after Baxter was lost. He played well and will be counted on to handle the nickel duties this season. Considering Bodden started just 11 games in '05 he turned in a fairly strong stat line of 47-11-0 with 2 FF and 3 picks. Should either of the starters be injured he could be a productive pickup in leagues that require corners... The Browns safety situation remains somewhat cloudy. It is expected that Sean Jones and Brodney Pool will battle throughout training camp for a SS position that is loaded with fantasy potential. Chris Crocker saw the lions share of playing time at the position last season but Pool was worked in as well. Between them the position yielded totals of 77-40-3 with 2 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, 3 picks and 9 passed defended. That would be outstanding production for one player. Considering that he was given a role as a rookie it's safe to say that Pool enters the fray with the upper hand. Both players have the physical tools to be very successful. Pool has been quicker to pick up the game and is more polished while Jones is a bigger hitter and more of an intimidating presence. Jones has been a little slow to pick up the pro game and has a tendency to go for the kill shot rather than make the fundamental play. The other factor in the situation is that the club is not enamored with the play of Brian Russell at FS. He failed to provide the big play presence that was expected when he was signed to a fat free agent contract after the '04 season. There are some, including myself, who speculate that Jones could end starting at FS if he doesn't win the SS job. He played there during his college career so it is not a strange position to him. This is a situation to keep a close eye on. Grab the winner of the SS battle and see what happens from there.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive Line Pittsburgh was among the league leaders with 47 sacks in '05, yet they are another example of the fantasy futility a 3-4 scheme creates for defensive linemen. Of those 47 sacks only 10 were credited to the DL. In contrast there were 9 recorded by defensive backs. Aaron Smith had a big year back in '02 when he ranked 5th with 55 tackles and 7 sacks but hasn't come close to 40 tackles since and is coming off the worst statistical year of his career (30-10-2). Expect him to rebound a little but 35 tackles and 5 sacks won't give him much value and that's about all we can expect... Brett Keisel worked into the rotation at DE last season and will replace Kimo von Oelhoffen who departed via free agency. Keisel managed to tie Oelhoffen for the team sack lead among linemen with 3 but only managed 31 tackles. If you were to split Oelhoffen's numbers (23-12-3) between Between Smith and Keisel, one of them might make for serviceable depth. That won't happen though. Instead Travis Kirschke will become the 3rd man in the rotation... Casey Hampton may be the best 3-4 nose tackle in the game. At 6'1" and 325 he has a rare combination of strength, girth, determination and willingness to do the dirty work so that those behind him can have the glory. Like everyone else who plays the NT position, his contributions to the success of the team are not going to show in the box scores. At least not next to his name.
Linebacker When it comes to sack production from the OLB position in a 3-4 scheme, the Steelers have long been the model that everyone attempts to copy. The names have changed over the years but the production basically remains the same regardless if it's Greg Lloyd and Kevin Greene or Joey Porter and Clark Haggans. Steelers outside backers are nearly always in or near double digits in sacks. Last year was no exception as the tandem of Porter and Haggans accounted for 20 of them. Unfortunately for fantasy owners the usual downside of the position is present here also as the two combined for just 82 solo stops in '05. In fact the last time a Steelers OLB (or any other OLB in a 3-4 for that matter) reached 60 solo tackles was '02 when Porter went 60-28-9. If your scoring is weighted heavily toward sacks these guys are strong options but for most of us they are too inconsistent to be counted on week to week and are no more than decent depth... It seems the Steelers always have some young project guy developing behind the starters at the OLB positions. Haggans sat behind Jason Gildon for a while before getting his shot and they have spent the past 4 years grooming '02 undrafted free agent James Harrison, who has become a very solid backup. The coaching staff believes they can play the same game and be just as effective if Harrison were forced into the lineup... James Farrior is the top fantasy prospect of the Steelers linebackers. When talking about on field value he is quietly one of the best in the game, however that doesn't fully translate to the box scores. The Steelers are perennially among the better defenses in the league thus the defense is usually on the field for fewer snaps than most. This is a bit of a handicap for Farrior when it comes to tackle production. In a different scheme he would likely be a triple digit solo tackle guy again as he was once in New York. Farrior missed a couple of games last year and ended the season with 76 tackles, 45 assists, 2 sacks and a fantasy ranking in the mid 20 range. If you average in two more games he has 87 solo's and ends up in the top 20. Consider Farrior a decent #2 starter or an excellent #3 and look for him to be a bargain on draft day. People will see 76 solo tackles and undervalue him without realizing he missed time... Larry Foote moved into the starting RILB job in '04 when the club finally gave up on Kendrell Bell. At first there was concern that he was a little short on talent to be a starter but those concerns were apparently generated from those of us out here looking in. In his first season Foote was less than impressive but last year he blossomed into a solid sidekick for Farrior. Foote's 76-26-3 production is not eye catching but is certainly enough that we need to consider him when filling out our depth charts in the later rounds... Last years 5th round pick Rian Wallace is the top backup who will be groomed until called upon. Should Farrior be injured look for Foote to slide over to the left side and become a very good waiver pickup if he's not on a roster.
Defensive Back Troy Polamalu has started at SS for the Steelers for two seasons now and twice he has finished in the top 15 of the fantasy rankings. Playing on a very good defense holds his tackle numbers in check but Polamalu is arguably the best big play safety in the game. In two seasons he's recorded 7 interceptions, forced 3 fumbles, recovered 2, sacked the quarterback 3 times, defended 26 passes and scored twice. That's a lot of highlight reel material for just 32 games played. Polamalu improved the tackle numbers from 66 in '04 to 74 in '05. He is just beginning to hit his prime and I believe we have yet to see the best of him. Barring injury Polamalu is a can't miss. Dependability alone makes him a sure top 5 at the position. I rank him #3 but would not be surprised at all to see him at #1 in December... The Steelers planted both safeties in the top 25 last year as Chris Hope had a strong season as well with a 70-27-0 and a hand full of big plays. He has moved on and the club signed free agent Ryan Clark to replace him. Clark is a player that I have been high on in the past. He is not exceptionally talented but plays smart, hard and has decent skills. I see him as a very good fit in the Steelers scheme though not necessarily at free safety. One issue for Clark may be transition time. The Steelers zone blitz is quite possibly the most complicated scheme in the league, especially when it comes to the secondary. This is the reason Polamalu didn't start as a rookie despite being a first round pick, and is also the reason Mike Logan has been slow to develop. Until I see Clark start all 4 preseason games and prove he's not lost, I can't count on him playing 16 games, especially considering that both Logan and Tyrone Carter are pretty good players who have spent time in the system... Rookie 3rd round pick Anthony Smith fits the FS mold much better than Clark and is likely the future of the position. Don't expect him to start right away but dynasty owners need to keep him in mind... Ike Taylor seemed to make a splash last season when he ended the season ranked among the top 20, but don't be drawn in by an illusion. Taylor totaled 75 solo stops which looks good but consider that 21 of those came in just two games. In the other 14 games he posted 3 or fewer 7 times and averaged under 4. With just 2 fumble recoveries and 1 interception Taylor didn't make up for the inconsistency in the big play columns either... Deshea Townsend will start opposite Taylor but is not much of a fantasy factor. His best tackle production over the past 4 seasons was 47 in '04. He does however make a fairly significant contribution in the big play columns. In the past two seasons he has 7 sacks, 2 FF, 2 FR and 5 picks. Based on the big plays Townsend might be worthy of a backup spot in corner required leagues... Ricardo Colclough and Bryant McFadden will contend for the nickel corner duties while providing the Steelers with quality options 4 players deep at the position.
Baltimore Ravens Defensive Line With the additions of Trevor Pryce at end and Haloti Ngata at tackle the Ravens have solidified a unit that was already thin last season and then lost Anthony Weaver to free agency. Ngata was the clubs first round pick and is the wide body space eater prototype that Ray Lewis has been lobbying for. There are fantasy owners out there who will look at his draft status and waste a pick on him, don't be that guy. His job description is not going to be one that promotes box score production. Ngata will be a road block versus the run and a human shield for Lewis in the base defense, but he will likely take a seat in most passing situations. Though I expect Ngata will produce a little better, I draw a comparison between he and Sam Adams who has never reached 35 solo tackles in his 12 year career. There are some leagues in which 35 tackles and 3 sacks are deserving of roster consideration but don't count on much more than that... Kelly Gregg once put up an incredible 63 solo tackles from the nose tackle position in a 3-4, and posted at least 43 in each of his first three seasons as a starter. He's a blue collar, lunch box totin' over achiever who plays more on hart than talent. When the club went back to the 4-3 last season Gregg's numbers fell. There were several things that likely contributed to the decline, not the least of which being the unfamiliar scheme. The addition of Ngata should free up Gregg from a lot of double teams and help him to rebound in the tackle column. Gregg only contributed 2.5 sacks last season and has never put up more than 3. At this point it looks like he will remain on the field in passing situations and should see a lot of single blocking so maybe those numbers go up a little. He is a solid prospect for owners who must draft tackles. For the rest of us he might make decent depth... Justin Bannan is actually listed at the starter ahead of Ngata entering camp but that is mostly for show. He has little chance of keeping the job and will likely battle former second round pick Dwan Edwards for the role of spelling the starters... Trevor Pryce is a perfect fit for Baltimore's situation. He is a versatile player who can rush the passer from either end or tackle and is strong against the run. Pryce spent a great deal of time early in his career as a tackle for the Broncos. I believe he was at that position in '99 when he recorded his career best of 13 sacks. This is important because he will likely slide inside on passing downs which would allow the club to work in Dan Cody as a pass rush specialist. Cody is coming off injury and they want to bring him along slowly, so a part time role would be perfect. Pryce should be an every down player and has some fantasy potential, but be aware that he has been very inconsistent throughout his career. His overall numbers are usually aided by a couple of big games and he has a tendency to vanish for weeks at a time. Pryce has only reached 40 tackles once ('99) over his 10 NFL seasons. He missed most of '04 with back problems. Although he played in all 16 games last year, Pryce's 4 sacks were the lowest total of his career for a full season. There are those who believe he is worn out and has lost a step... Terrell Suggs successfully made the transition from college end to OLB in the Ravens 3-4 where he prospered. Last year he made the transition back to 4-3 end and again it was successful. His sack total slipped a bit but Suggs posted the best tackle numbers of his three year career (47-21) and finished among the top 10. He is a big play artist as well with 9 forced fumbles, 7 recoveries and 3 picks on his brief resume'. To put it simply, he is a young fantasy stud.
Linebacker It would be easy to use a bunch of space talking about all the great things Ray Lewis has done and all the huge fantasy numbers he has put up over the years. But then everyone knows about those things. The question now has become, is he worn out physically? There are plenty of people who believe he is, but I am not one of them. The competitive fire still burns white hot in Lewis who is on a mission to prove his doubters wrong. While it is true that he has missed 22 games over the past 4 seasons, he had played 31 of 32 prior to his problem in '05, finishing in the top 5 both years. Clearly there is some injury risk with Lewis but with Ngata in front of him and the naysayers motivating him, I believe he is primed for another 100+ tackle season. If he does stay healthy he could very well recapture the #1 LB slot for the first time since '03... When Lewis went down last season the Ravens move Tommy Polley to MLB and went to Bart Scott at WLB. Scott made the best of his opportunity both on the field and in the box scores. Over the final 9 games he went 53-25-4.5 and earned himself a fat new contract. Polley is history and Scott is in the lineup with a full time role. History suggests that while Lewis is healthy other Ravens linebackers won't make a big splash in the tackle column. This year is not likely to be an exception. That said, with concerns about Lewis' ability to get and stay healthy, Scott has a lot of value as a sleeper and is the guy to leap on at the first sign of problems for Lewis... Adalius Thomas is not your typical SLB. At 270 pounds I believe he is the biggest 4-3 linebacker the league has seen since Levon Kirkland retired. The Ravens don't use him in the typical fashion either, at least not against the pass. Many clubs pull the SLB in passing situations but not the Ravens. Instead they turn him loose to get after the QB, and he's good at it. Thomas has 17 sacks over the past two seasons. In '05 he was the team's second leading tackler with a career best 71 solo stops, and led the club with 9 sacks in route to his first ever top 20 fantasy finish. One might assume that the production would not have been so good had Lewis been in the mix all season but Thomas's numbers were pretty consistent and didn't really surge after Lewis was lost. It may be tough for Thomas to equal last year's tackle numbers but he should manage to get close enough to remain one of the few strong side linebackers with significant fantasy value... If there is an injury to any of the starters the Ravens better hope there is another Bart Scott flying under the radar because on paper they are hurting bad for depth. If there is an injury don't be surprised if they try to move Dan Cody back to LB to fill the void.
Defensive Back Ed Reed is one of the premier big play play safeties in the game but you wouldn't have known it from last year's numbers. Reed spent most of the season hobbling around on a bad ankle which eventually cost him 6 games and caused owners who were counting on Reed as their top DB to scramble. The ankle has healed and Reed will be back to his old tricks this season but keep one important fact in mind, even when healthy Reed is very inconsistent. His totals will look good at the end of the season but he lacks great tackle production and will all but vanish from the box scores a hand full of times each year. In 2004 for example, Reed managed 3 or fewer solo tackles in 9 games... Beyond Reed Baltimore is hurting at safety. They will enter camp with special teamer B.J. Ward set to compete with rookie 5th round pick Dawan Landry and bargain basement free agent Gerome Sapp at FS. When guys like that compete is there really a winner or do they just name the losers and the other guy plays? There has been some banter about the club going to some sort of hybrid scheme that uses an extra linebacker and just 3 defensive backs. That might work for an occasional play call but as a base defense? Chad Johnson would certainly be looking foreword to Ravens games. Besides, who are they going to use as the 4th LB? What is much more likely is that the club will pick up some veteran cap casualty and plug him in. Regardless of what happens don't waste a pick on Baltimore's free safety. At least not until/unless they get someone proven in there who is sure to hold the job for 16 weeks... Owners will likely want to avoid Baltimore corners completely. Chris McAllister has missed at least one game in each of the past 4 seasons and has not reached 50 tackles since '01. He's not much of a big play threat either having only 7 picks over the past 5 seasons. Samari Rolle has a few more picks over that span but his tackle numbers are even worse. He was 37-2-0 with just 1 pick during his first year with the Ravens in '05.
Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Line Only Cleveland and New Orleans recorded fewer than the Chiefs 28 sacks a year ago but Kansas City still managed to produce a top 10 defensive lineman in Jarred Allen. Allen demonstrated great promise with 8 sacks as a rookie pass rush specialist in '04 then earned a full time role for the '05 season when he proved his rookie production was no fluke by responding with 50 solo tackles and 11 sacks. Those are exceptional numbers in any situation but are particularly impressive considering he had very little help from the rest of the defense. In fact Eric Hill's 3.5 sacks were the second highest total on the team. Allen will get a lot more attention from offensive blocking schemes this season so his production will likely level off and may even slip a bit. That said, he is now a proven commodity worthy of top 10 consideration... It's been a long dry stretch for Hicks who exploded for 14 sacks back in '00 but has seen his production plummet ever since. He has just 14 sacks to show for the past 3 seasons combined and hasn't reached the 40 tackle plateau since '02. Enter rookie first round pick Tamba Hali who is expected to push Hicks for playing time right away. Hali has all the physical tools to become an excellent every down player in the NFL. He is versatile, having played both end and tackle at Penn State and capped his college career by leading the the Big Ten in sacks with 11 as a senior. Hali didn't impress Herman Edwards during the offseason programs but according to Edwards, he wasn't surprised by that and still expects Hali to make a major contribution right away... After spending a first round pick on him back in '02 the Chiefs are still waiting on Ryan Sims to become the dominating player they thought he would be. Instead Sims has been no more than a serviceable player who has had a great deal of trouble remaining healthy. Three times in his 4 pro seasons Sims has played in 10 or fewer games while missing a total of 30 over that span. As he nears the end of his rookie contract it is time for Sims to put up or he may be shown the door after the season... It seems as though every year Lionel Dalton is listed as a starter for someone yet when the time comes he is rarely a significant factor. Last season he recorded only a 12-6-1 mark despite being credited as a starter. He will be bumped on passing downs again this season and continue to be a non factor... On the other side of that coin, John Browning is rarely credited with starting a game yet consistently puts up starter type numbers. Browning is a versatile player who can play end if called upon and sees action on nearly all passing downs. His numbers fall short in fantasy terms but he will be first off the bench if Sims goes down and can be productive for owners who must start tackles.
Linebacker It took a little time but those dynasty owners who were patient with Kawika Mitchell have finally begun to enjoy the rewards. Mitchell made his way into the lineup over the course of his second season in '04 then earned a full time gig in '05. He responded well with a solid stat line of 84-21-1 and played well enough on the field to solidify his position as starter. Pass coverage is not the strength of his game but Mitchell is competent enough to remain on the field in most passing situations. He isn't Ray Lewis or Johnathan Vilma but Mitchell has emerged as a very dependable fantasy option who is still on the upswing and is likely to prove even better in '06... The Chiefs are one of several clubs who don't play strong and weak side linebackers. Instead they go right and left with the players staying on the same side and responsibilities shifting from play to play based on the offensive formation. Last year's first round pick Derrick Johnson works as the right outside backer, which will be the weak side roughly 75% of the time. Johnson is not a player who impressed me last year. He isn't physical enough and too often tries to use speed and quickness when strength and determination would be the better answer. As a rookie he posted useful numbers of 80-16-2 but fell well short of many owners high expectations. Johnson has a year of seasoning behind him and under defensive minded HC Herman Edwards the Chiefs are moving to a more physical and aggressive style of play. Those two factors should offset that 25% of the time when Johnson will have SLB responsibilities and help his production to pick up. Even so I have a hard time picturing him as more than a quality #3 starter... When the Chiefs signed Kendrell Bell before last season they expected big things from him. Much bigger than the 32-9-1.5 that they got. Bell has wrestled with injuries since he was a rookie in '01. So much so in fact that the Steelers finally gave up on him. So how long will the Chiefs patience last? Bell will line up at left outside linebacker where he will essentially be on the strong side a vast majority of the time. He is a talented player who may never realize his potential. Playing on the left side he will provide very little fantasy production even if he does remain healthy... The Chiefs are not without a plan B should Bell continue to struggle. Third year pro Keyaron Fox has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff despite very little playing experience. In fact there are some who believe Fox could eventually beat out even a healthy Bell.
Defensive Back Only San Francisco and New England allowed more passing yards than the Chiefs in '05. With that in mind many were surprised that they didn't address the corner position early in the draft. However they did apparently have a plan. Kansas City landed one of the big fish in free agency when Ty Law agreed to join the club on the eve of training camp. At age 32 Law is getting a little up in years in NFL terms. Yet in '05 he not only came back from the first serious injury of his career but proved that he still has a lot of game by tying for tops in the league with 10 interceptions. Law is one of the leagues elite corners and will pair with last years star free agent addition Patrick Surtain to give the Chiefs a tandem to rival any in the league. Both players have pro-bowls on their resume' and between them they posted 15 picks a year ago. Law will have no problem adjusting to the scheme considering he played under Herman Edwards last season in New York. He may not be the long term answer but no move the club could have made at the position would go further toward winning a Super Bowl in '06. In fantasy circles there will be great division about Law's value based on the different scoring systems. Obviously he can't be counted on for 10 picks again as Law has averaged just under 5 over the course of his career. As tackle production goes he has proven to be slightly above average for most of his career. That said, other than the injury shortened '04 season, the 45 solo stops he totaled last year were his fewest since he was a rookie in '95. For owners who must start corners or in leagues that overvalue big plays, Law should be considered among the top 10 at the position and maybe even top 5. The rest of us need to look hard at his '05 numbers and realize two things, he will be playing in the same style/system of defense this year so last year's tackle numbers are likely the norm, and even in the same scheme a repeat of the monster interception totals is extremely unlikely... Surtain is an excellent corner but has never amounted to much in fantasy terms. His career best is a modest 47 solo tackles and he hasn't finished higher that #56 since the '02 season when he totaled 40 tackles and 6 picks. Law wasn't the only free agent addition who will play a significant role in improving the pass defense. They also added Lenny Walls who will likely wrest the nickel corner duties away from Julian Battle. Walls was a starter for Denver in '03 before injuries shortened his '04 and '05 seasons and eventually led to his release. If he can remain healthy he is capable of providing the Chiefs with a solid compliment to Law and Surtain and would be a very competent replacement if either were injured... The safety positions in Kansas City have proven very productive over the past several years. With 87 solo tackles and 6 picks in '03 Greg Wesley was a top 5 DB while working at SS. In '04 he was on pace for 80 tackles and 6 picks when injury knocked him out of 4 games. Wesley moved over to FS last season and while his tackle numbers slipped to 66 he still managed to finish around #20 in most scoring systems because he is a consistent big play threat. Wesley has 22 picks over the past 4 seasons including 6 more in '05. He will be hard pressed to enter the top 10 again while working at FS but Wesley should remain a solid #2 or excellent #3 starter... The SS position in KC has been fantasy gold for several years and '05 was no exception. The club inserted Sammy Knight at the position last offseason and he turned in a performance in or near the top 10 in most scoring systems. While he remains a quality veteran presence, Knight lacks the kind of speed Herman Edwards likes in his safeties and there is a very good chance he could spend much of this season watching from the bench. Edwards used a second round pick on Bernard Pollard who will compete with Knight for the job during camp. At 6'2" and 219, Pollard can provide an intimidating presence in the secondary and is faster than Knight. The coaching staff has been impressed throughout mini camps and Edwards has a track record that proves he will not hesitate to play rookies. After all he started a rookie at safety in each of the past two season in New York. He lacks experience but Pollard is a much more talented player than Knight and has top 10 potential if he can win the job in time for the opener. At the very least he is a superb dynasty option.
Denver Broncos Defensive Line You can call then the Denver Browns or you can call them the Cleveland Broncos but whatever you do don't call them at all on draft day. Trevor Pryce and Ebenezer Ekuban tied for the Broncos team lead with just 4 sacks each last season and the entire D-line totaled only 17 spread among 7 players. Part of the problem here is that the club rotates too many players so no one plays full time. Pryce is gone and Kenard Lang was signed to take his place. Lang was a square peg in a round hole at OLB in Cleveland last season. He will return to DE this year but he may not have a starting role. Lang is behind John Engelberger on the depth chart and could end up sharing time with him. Engelberger has never been impressive so there is a good chance Lang could beat him out for the job. If that happens Lang will still end up losing snaps to rookie Elvis Dumerville. The coaching staff has already begun working Dumerville into the nickel package as a pass rusher and has even given him some work at tackle in that package. They believe he could eventually mature into an every down type player but are expected to bring him along slowly. At the other end injury prone Courtney Brown will likely start. Brown hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in '00. In order to keep him healthy the club will likely continue to have him share time with Ekuban to limit the wear and tear. The bottom line here is that they have no dominating every down player that the just can't take off the field. Chances are none of these guys will reach 35 tackles or 6 sacks... Neither Gerard Warren nor Michael Myers came close to 30 tackles and they combined for 4 sacks last year when they were listed as starters. The club made no significant additions at the position meaning that former Baltimore practice squad player Demetrin Veal and/or former Browns backup Amon Gordon will be the backups. One or both of them could work into the rotation. To put it simply and to the point, fantasy owners need to avoid this situation like the plague. The only consideration here might be Dumerville as a deep sleeper or taxi squad player in dynasty leagues.
Linebacker There is no lack of talent or speed at linebacker in Denver where the starting trio are arguably the fastest in the league. However the quality play on the field somehow doesn't translate well to the box scores. This has long been a problem with Bronco defenders in general and may boil right down to the fact that teams are responsible for tracking their own tackle statistics. Whoever has been doing this job for the Broncos needs to be fired. Case in point, only once in the past 7 years has a Denver player recorded 90 tackles. Sure they have had some quality defenses over that span but even good defenses generally have at least one guy in that range every year... Al Wilson was the last guy to break the 90 mark when he put up 99-32-5 and was a top 10 LB back in '02. In three years since his best production has been 72-33-2.5 and he's struggled to make the top 50. Wilson recorded just 62 tackles in '05. While he is a very good linebacker who would be a stud in most defensive schemes, he is barely worthy of backup status in his current situation... The closest thing Denver has produced to a stud IDP over the last decade was John Mobley who went for 97 and 98 solo stops in 1997 and '98 respectively. What is most notable here is that Mobley's production came from the WLB position. Thought they may not always have all been recorded by one player in any given year, since '95 that position has consistently produced the best fantasy numbers among Bronco defenders. WLB Ian Gold led the Broncos in tackles last season. Though his 74-16-3 mark is far from impressive, he is relatively consistent and will contribute several big plays along the way to boost his value. Last season he used 3 sacks, 4 FF, and 2 FR to overcome the lacking tackle production and finish in or near the top 30 in most leagues. There is little chance that he will break out big but Gold can be counted on as a serviceable third starter or quality depth... Many dynasty owners were licking their lips over D.J. Williams when he was a rookie in '04 but their high expectations took a detour when he was relegated to fantasy purgatory at SLB. His sophomore number slumped significantly from his rookie production but there is an easy explanation. Denver boasted the second best run defense in the league last year which forced offenses to the air early and often. Williams was not on the field in the nickel package which is something that is not likely to change in '06. If it ever comes to pass that Williams escapes to one of the other positions, or even better to a different team, he has the ability to become a top 15 fantasy option. In his current situation he will be lucky to make the top 50... The Broncos are very thin at the LB positions. Nate Webster is the backup in the middle with journeyman special teams player Patrick Chukwurah next in line at the OLB positions. Webster has some potential but was not fast prior to the major knee injury that caused him to miss most of the past two seasons. He will see some action in short yardage but would struggle to be productive as a starter in this scheme.
Defensive Back The lack of strong tackle numbers is an issue among Denver defensive backs as well. Dating all the way back to the Steve Atwater era there have been very few Bronco DBs who have garnered any serious fantasy status. Eric Brown was the last to breach the 70 tackle mark way back in '00. In '05 Champ Bailey rode 8 interceptions and a whopping 23 passes defended to become the first Denver DB since Brown to crack the top 20. Don't over react to those numbers on draft day. Throughout his career Bailey has consistently posted tackle numbers in or near the 60 range but his previous career best of 5 picks came back in '00. He only totaled 21 passed defended in the previous two years combined and you have to add the previous 3 campaigns together to get 8 picks. Bailey is one of the leagues best corners and is a stellar option for owner who must start corners, just don't select him based on expectations that he will repeat last year's production. Most of us should consider him a decent #3 starter or quality depth with upside... The Broncos finished last season second in the league in run defense which forced offenses to rely heavily on the passing game. This explains why their top 3 corners totaled 175 solo tackles between them. The team's 2nd and 3rd round picks last season were Darrent Williams and Domonique Foxworth who ended the year with 50 and 65 tackles respectively after blowing by Lenny Walls on the depth chart. Williams will be the starter in '06 but that doesn't necessarily mean he will out produce Foxworth. If the Bronco run defense is as sturdy as last season, offenses will once again open up the passing game and the club will use the nickel package often. Both Foxworth and Williams hold some value in corner required leagues but I would suggest caution. The run defense would have to remain incredibly stingy for the corners to approach last year's gaudy numbers... There was a brief time when I though that SS Nick Ferguson had a shot at being something. It didn't take long however to realize it was a mirage. He did manage a top 40 finish in '05 when he broke out with 5 picks and 8 passed defended to go with the mediocre 61-18-0. The overall numbers seem serviceable but take a closer look before drafting him. Prior to last year Ferguson had missed 22 of 48 games and he had just 1 interception to show for his first 5 years as a pro. Also consider that 7 times in '05 Ferguson recorded 3 or fewer tackles in a game. In short he's inconsistent, injury prone and possibly a one year wonder. That's if you can even consider a 30 something finish a "wonder"... John Lynch is one of the best free safeties in the game. In his youth he was once an excellent fantasy option but that was long ago in a galaxy far far away. Over the past 4 seasons Lynch has failed to record more than 50 tackles in any one season and has only made the top 60 once. Despite what he brings to the Broncos, he is a non factor for us.
San Diego Chargers Defensive Line The Chargers have assembled an excellent group of linemen who are all a very good fit in the scheme but like all the other defensive linemen stuck in a 3-4, the have very little fantasy potential. Luis Castillo come closest. Last year's first round pick made a very good impression by starting all 16 games and finishing with a respectable mark of 37-12-3.5. If anyone from this group is capable of overcoming the scheme and being productive it would be Castillo. He has rare quickness for a man of 300+ pounds and may well be the most athletic 3-4 end in the game. With a year of experience he should be even better in '06 and if he can improve as a sophomore Castillo could emerge as quality depth or possibly even a solid third starter. That said, don't waste a draft pick on him. Just keep your eyes open once the season starts in case he gets hot... Jamal Williams is a 348 pound road grader who put up decent tackle numbers in '05. Unfortunately it was the first time sine '00 that he managed more than 25 solo stops and his career best in sacks is only 4. Williams is a quality 3-4 NT but the position kills any opportunity for him to prosper in the box scores... Igor Olshansky will start at DE opposite Castillo. He should see a boost in playing time and production with the departure of DeQuincy Scott who replaced Olshansky on passing downs last season. There is a chance Cesaire Jacques could assume the pass rush role. Regardless of that situation neither player is worthy of fantasy consideration.
Linebacker Everyone has heard the chin music about how the Chargers organization has soured on Donnie Edwards, how he's lost a step and makes all his tackle 5 yards down field yadda yadda. Let the rest of your league feed on that BS like an opossum on road kill. To the astute owner it simply means that you can land Edwards a couple of rounds below his value. Lets be realistic here, a guy who is on his way over the hill doesn't rack up 114-40-3, force 2 fumbles and pick off 2 passes despite playing much of the season on a sprained knee. Edwards did all those things in '05 and he still hasn't missed a game since 1998. I believe all the hot air coming out of San Diego is a ploy to make him play all the harder to prove them wrong, while at the same time creating an excuse not to extend his contract because he's 33 years old. There may be rumors of his impending release but I'll be more surprised if he falls short of 100 solo tackles... Randall Godfrey on the other hand, may be a different story. Like Edwards he is 33 years old but that is where the similarities end. Only once in his career has Godfrey gone over 90 tackles and he hasn't played a full season in 5 years. The one truth coming out of the Chargers rumor mill is that they are very happy with their depth at ILB. With that in mind it would come as little surprise to see Godfrey demoted or even on the waiver wire by the end of camp... Both Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm saw significant playing time over the second half of last season. Most of that playing time came at the expense of Godfrey but Edwards was playing through a sore knee at that point as well and would take a break now and then. Both backups made strong impressions on the coaching staff. Strong enough to stir consideration of having them both as starters when the '07 season rolls around. I expect the club will take another long look at these two guys just to be sure before committing to that course of action. It's a situation that warrants our attention to say the least... In general 3-4 OLBs deserve strong consideration only in leagues that overvalue sacks but Shawne Merriman is an exception. As a rookie he posted a 43-14-10 mark despite not making his first start until week 7. If you project his starter numbers over the full campaign you would get 60-19-15. Those numbers would make him a strong consideration in any scoring system. On the downside Merriman won't catch anyone by surprise this year, while the upside is that he is no longer a rookie and will be even better with the experience. The concern with Merriman in fantasy terms is consistency. He may finish the season with top 20 totals despite the limitations of playing OLB in a 3-4, but due to the nature of the scheme/position, there will be weeks when he does very little in the box scores. With the consistency issue I don't know that I could be comfortable with Merriman as my third starter but he could deliver big as a bye week replacement a couple of times a year... Two years ago Steve Foley surprised everyone by blowing up for 10 sacks. Last year he struggled through some nagging injuries and missed a few games which opened the door for Shaun Phillips to get some playing time. Phillips made sure the door didn't shut by adding 7 sacks of his own. Foley is 31 years old so Phillips may emerge as the long term answer but chances are they will continue to share time in the short term.
Defensive Back There is still much to be determined when it comes to the safety positions in San Diego. For the past couple of years the Chargers have gotten by with the likes of Jerry Wilson and Bhawoh Jue at free safety and this year they are handing the position to yet another journeyman type in Marlon McCree. If you believe everything you hear, McCree is a huge improvement and the Chargers have finally landed their long term answer at the position. My question is, if McCree is all that great, why is he playing on his 4th different team in 6 years? Now for a reality check. McCree is solid in coverage which is where the club was looking for improvement. That alone makes it likely that he will be the starter this year but he is certainly nothing special. Over his previous 5 seasons McCree has been a starter only twice. The first coming in '02 when Jacksonville gave him a shot. So impressed were they that he was beaten out of the starting job by a converted second year corner, and then released in September of '03. The defensively challenged and very safety needy Texans claimed him off waivers but after two seasons of being unable to earn a full time role he bolted for Carolina. McCree started for the Panthers last season but only after injuries forced a shuffle and left the club with no other option. He went on to post career best tackle number of 74-14 with three picks but obviously the Panthers weren't impressed either as they also made no effort to retain his services. Twice he has made it into a starting role and twice he has been discarded following that season. That alone speaks volumes to me... '03 second round pick Terrance Kiel seemed to have a lock on the SS job following a very strong sophomore campaign in '04. He started strong last season before being beset with calf and then ankle injuries that eventually landed him on IR. Kiel lacks great cover skills but is a hard hitting physical presence. He is expected to battle last season's free agent addition Clinton Hart for the starting job at SS. Last year in this article I talked about Hart being worthy of a starting job in the league. Apparently the Chargers coaching staff agrees. Hart doesn't have the cover skills of McCree nor does he bring the physical presence of Kiel but he may well be the most complete safety the club has to work with. History tells us that the Chargers SS position is very productive. Whoever comes away with that job will have very strong fantasy potential. The battle is officially supposed to be at SS but if Kiel can stay healthy and return to pre-injury form it would come as little surprise to eventually see Hart push McCree at FS. According to reports Hart will enter camp with the upper hand in the SS battle but then August is a long month. Since neither of these two are likely to be picked early, it might be a good idea to snap them both up late in your draft and be set whatever the outcome... The Chargers corners don't offer much in terms of fantasy production. In fact a close look at last year's numbers explains exactly why the team traded Sammy Davis and then spent a first round pick on Antonio Cromartie to replace him. In '05 San Diego's top three corners intercepted only 2 passes between them. Quentin Jammer is a solid cover corner who doesn't hesitate in run support. Thus he consistently produces fair tackle numbers for a corner. The 62 solo stops last year were his career best but the fact that he has just 6 career interceptions over 4 seasons and only 2 in the past two years, is enough to kill any serious fantasy consideration. At best he might be worthy as a backup in leagues that require corners... Florence Drayton has been penciled in to start opposite Jammer. He too has established himself as a quality cover corner but like Jammer he simply doesn't come through in the big play columns. Drayton matched Jammer with 1 interception last season and has just 5 to show for his 3 pro seasons. With 47 solo tackles in 13 games last year, Drayton was on pace for very similar numbers all around, and like Jammer, has very little fantasy value... The wild card here is rookie first round pick Antonio Cromartie who was a big play guy at Florida State. He will likely open the season working in the nickel package but if he can make a few big plays it would be no stretch to think he could earn a starting role during the season. If that happens the rookie corner rule could apply.
Oakland Raiders Defensive Line With the exception of free agent addition Lance Johnstone, the characters remain the same here, but there could be a very different story line in '06. Derrick Burgess proved to be one of last seasons free agent steals as he all but single handedly restored the pass rush to the Oakland defense. He accounted for a league best 16 of the team's 36 sacks and did it despite getting very little help from his line mates who accumulated just just 13.5 between them. After spending 4 injury plagued seasons in Philly, Burgess was finally able to kick the habit. The Eagles had always contended that Burgess had the talent to do big things but they gave up on him one year too early. At 6'2" and 265, Burgess did more than rush the passer in '05, he stood up well against the run and proved that he should be considered among the leagues elite every down defensive ends. He ended last season securely embedded in the top 10 of any scoring system, yet I have seen him plummet down draft boards because too many people believe last year was a fluke. I'm reminded of a time when Keith Brooking was dubbed Keith Broken because he couldn't stay healthy. It's been 5 years now since he last missed a game. Sure there is some risk involved with Burgess but we are talking about a guy with 50 solo tackles and 16 sacks. He's well worth the risk of being drafted as a top 10 lineman. Burgess was the 11th DL taken in our FBG in house IDP draft in mid July... The addition of Johnstone will go unnoticed by many but don't underestimate the effect it could have. Johnstone began his career with a very successful five year stint in Oakland. He became an every down player in his third season and went on to post 40+ solo tackles and double digit sacks in '98-'99. In '01 he went to Minnesota via free agency. As as Viking Johnstone was used mostly as a pass rush specialist which saved wear and tear on him. Most importantly he recorded 28.5 sacks over the past 3 seasons which proves that he still has gas in the tank. Johnstone is capable of playing every down if need be but the Raiders plan is to have former 1st round pick Tyler Brayton move back to DE after a failed experiment as a 3-4 OLB. Brayton has done little in 3 NFL seasons but much of his struggles can be attributed to the coaching staff for shuffling him around to situations that he doesn't fit. Once he is finally allowed to settle into familiar territory he could prove to be a very solid player. At this point it seems the plan will be to have Brayton work on early downs with Johnstone coming in to rush the passer. What remains to be seen is if Brayton will exit in passing situations or move inside as many other early down ends do in the league. If he stays on the field he has the potential to become a decent fantasy option. This is one of those situations to monitor as the season approaches... On the interior Warren Sapp returns for a 12th season. He is not the same player he was in his youth but Sapp is still a contributor. He was once among the best pass rushing interior linemen in the league but at this stage of his career he could be pulled in passing situations. It's been a long time since Sapp held any serious fantasy value. Even owners who must start tackles should consider him no more than decent depth... Tommy Kelly is a hard nosed overachiever who came into the league without lofty credentials but has earned his job through hustle and desire. Kelly was the clubs #2 sack producer last season though that can be a little deceiving since he only managed 5. While he is not someone to get excited about at this point, its worth mention that Raiders defensive tackles have a history of quality fantasy production. Rod Coleman totaled 78-12-18 in Oakland over the course of '02 & '03, while Grady Jackson racked up a mark of 101-34-9.5 over '00 & '01. 40+ tackles and 6 sacks is a realistic possibility for Kelly. He's a sleeper candidate and a player who should start in leagues that require tackles.
Linebacker Linebacker had been a position of need for Oakland over the past few years but with the addition of Kirk Morrison last season and second round pick Thomas Howard this year the defensive coaches finally have something to work with. What we need to see now is how they plan to deploy their new talent. The Raiders were so thin at the position last season that they adopted a hybrid nickel scheme as their base defense so they would only have to play 2 linebackers. In that scheme Morrison lined up on the weak side with Danny Clark in the middle and SS Derrick Gibson squeezed up to the line in sort of a SLB role. The results weren't necessarily all that great as Oakland finished in the bottom half of the the league against both the run and pass. They did however, manage to improve over the previous season in both areas. When the club picked Howard most people assumed they would simply insert him as a starting SLB and the so called "Big Nickel" would be history. Maybe so and maybe not. There have been all sorts of conflicting reports about the clubs intentions. Some are reporting that they will continue using the Big Nickel and that Howard will have a limited role as a rookie. Others claim Morrison will move to SLB with Howard at WLB to use his speed. Still others are reporting that the club will play a conventional 4-3 but that Sam Williams will start ahead of Howard at SLB. In truth the coaching staff may not be sure what they are going to do just yet. With that in mind lets look at the players themselves. Clark took over at MLB two years ago and led the club with 99 solo tackles. He is a smart, versatile player who at some point over his career has made starts at all 3 LB positions. He brings leadership, rarely makes mistakes and will lower the boom on the ball carrier. He is a hard worker who is great for team chemistry and has been the defensive captain for the past two seasons. What he lacks is great talent. He's not fast, is average in coverage and rarely makes game changing plays. In 32 starts his big play credentials show only 3 sacks and 1 forced fumble with no interceptions or recoveries. While he has done a decent job in the middle, his skill set may be best suited to the SLB role... Morrison came on the scene last year and captured the team tackle crown as a rookie. He too is a versatile player which was showcased by his move to WLB at the pro level after playing predominately MLB in college. He lacks impressive measurables but tackles everything that gets near him and simply gets it done on the field. He is intelligent and is a natural leader. While capable of being successful at any position, Morrison is a natural in the middle... Howard has the speed and physical talent to be very successful at either OLB position but his scouting report suggests that he has limited football intelligence and is best suited for a situation that requires less mental responsibility. That description screams SLB. There is also the consideration that he played SLB throughout his college career... All things considered, this is how I anticipate it playing out. The Raiders picked Howard with visions of him playing WLB and according to the Oakland Tribune they will enter training camp with Howard at weak, Morrison in the middle and Clark on the strong side. If Howard proves that he can handle the position it will remain that way. If he struggles the club could shift back to Morrison weak, Clark in the middle and Howard on the strong side. In this case we could continue to see a lot of the big nickel. Clark lacks the tools to play WLB so he will either stay put in the middle or move to the strong side. Morrison is the future at MLB and will eventually migrate to the position even if he plays elsewhere in the short term. Any way you turn the picture, Morrison remains the top fantasy prospect. He is proven, is very likely to remain at MLB or WLB and is better in coverage than the other two so he will remain on the field full time regardless of where everyone lines up on early downs. Sam Williams can't stay healthy long enough to be a factor at all and we can expect to see some of the Big Nickel even if it is not considered the base defense. A little more food for thought, Clark has a pretty high cap figure this year. With the club drafting Darnell Bing and working him in at SLB, the writing could be on the wall for Clark.
Defensive Back The Raiders have assembled an incredible amount of speed in the secondary. All of the top 3 corners can run with any WR in the league while FS Stuart Schweigert was once an elite high school sprinter and runs a sub 4.5 40. The addition of first round pick Michael Huff who runs a 4.37, makes the unit even faster. The problem is, it takes more than pure speed to play DB in the NFL. Guys have to make plays and the Raiders secondary hasn't made enough over the past couple of years. In fact the entire team produced just 5 interceptions last season and only 14 over the past two seasons combined. In contrast 22 clubs had more than 14 last season alone. Even more ugly is the fact that Warren Sapp with 1, recorded more picks than the top 3 corners combined. That has to be some sort of record. On a positive note, despite having 2 rookies play a significant role the overall pass defense improved in terms of yards allowed. Fabian Washington entered the lineup by default when Charles Woodson spent most of the year in the training room, and Stanford Routt stepped up the ladder into the nickel corner role. All three of these guys have good cover skills but none of them even approached 60 tackles. In fact only Nnamdi Asomugha broke the 40 mark. In short, until/unless they can step up and start making a lot more game changing plays, these guys will have no fantasy value and even their on field value will be questionable... There is a lot of uncertainty revolving around the safety position at this point, but the picture will clear up greatly once we see if the club continues using the Big Nickel. Derrick Gibson is a linebacker trapped in a safeties body, or maybe the other way around. At any rate he is a big hitter who has struggled with injuries throughout his career. Gibson missed all of '04 after shoulder surgery, then lasted just 6 starts into '05 before exiting with a broken wrist. What makes Gibson interesting is that over the 5 full games he played, he averaged nearly 6 solo tackles per game and was on pace for 90. Gibson signed a one year contract over the offseason so chances are this will be his last opportunity to prove himself. He's obviously a big injury risk but if they stick with last year's scheme and he can stay healthy, Gibson can be a very productive player. One interesting point here is that 4th round pick Darnell Bing is a college safety trying to convert to LB. He could be an excellent fit in Gibson's Big Nickel role... Schweigert has matured into a very solid free safety. He's not a physical presence and will occasionally take a ride when tackling but he consistently gets his guy to the ground. More important is the fact that Schweigert is one of the team's few big play threats. In his second season Schweigert made considerable improvement in every aspect of his game. He posted a mark of 72-17-0 with 2 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries and 2 of the Raiders 5 picks, on the way to a top 30 fantasy ranking... Michael Huff is the wild card in the mix. With his rare combination of size, speed, athleticism and intelligence, he could be successful in the NFL at either corner or safety. The coaching staff has been mum on their intentions concerning Huff. What we do know is that he will be on the field in some fashion... When Gibson was injured last season, Jarrod Cooper filled his SS position with Schweigert at FS while Renaldo Hill came in as the extra DB. His official title was nickel corner but in essence Hill was more of a roaming safety. In this role Hill became a productive fantasy option averaging just about 5-1-0. Imagine what the coaching staff could do with a guy like Huff in that position, and what a guy with Huff's talent could do to the box scores with that opportunity. There are a lot of things pointing toward a continued use of the Big Nickel. With that in mind Huff has huge potential but there is always the chance the team could return to a more conventional base package. Huff will contribute regardless of the scheme and should be one of the top 3 defensive backs to go in rookie drafts. Schweigert could continue to provide decent depth but his fantasy value is on thin ice until we see what path the club follows. If they do go with a straight 4-3, he will likely lose the FS position to Huff.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defensive Line When Jack Del Rio took over the Jaguars, defensive end was a major weakness. Jacksonville still lacks a dominating player at the position but it's no longer a black hole. The trio of Reggie Hayward, Paul Spicer and Bobby McCray produced 22 sacks between them last season with starters Hayward and Spicer accounting for 16. Certainly not huge numbers but a major improvement over previous seasons. The problem for fantasy owners is that none of them put up useful tackle numbers. Hayward has become an every down end for the Jags but his strength is as a pass rusher. He has 17.5 sacks over the past two seasons but despite the full time gig, was unable to improve on the career best of just 31 tackles that he recorded in '04 as a pass rush specialist with the Broncos. Unfortunately there is no reason to expect different results this season... Spicer's strength is against the run and he often gives way to McCray in passing situations. To his credit Spicer set a career mark with 7.5 sacks last season but that number is a bit deceiving as 3 of those sacks came in one early season contest versus the Jets. Spicer is a serviceable role player for the Jaguars but there is little chance he will make a fantasy impact... McCray is also a good fit as a role player in this defense. At 251 pounds he demonstrates above average pass rush skills but struggles against the run, particularly when the play comes right at him. In the case of an injury to Hayward or Spicer chances are McCray would maintain his same role with Marcellus Wiley bypassing him for the starters role... The most valuable fantasy option of this group is tackle John Henderson who is unquestionably one of the games premier interior linemen. He is a rare specimen who at 328 pounds has the uncanny strength and ability to clog running lanes, play off blockers and make tackles or collapse the pocket into the quarterbacks face. Yet he remains as quick as most guys in the 290 pound range. Over his 4 years in the league Henderson has never totaled fewer than 46 solo tackles and has an impressive count of 116 over the past two seasons. He doesn't produce great sack numbers with a career best of 7.5 coming when he was a rookie in '02, but he has averaged just over 5 per season. Obviously he has more value in leagues with tackle based scoring but what most people don't realize is that he has four straight seasons with top 25 finishes. Henderson is a player who will drop into the late rounds in most drafts but can be counted on as a strong third starter or excellent depth... With Marcus Stroud along side Henderson the Jaguars have arguably the leagues best interior tandem. Stroud works at the left tackle position thus sees more double teams and has less opportunity to produce in the box scores, but he is an exceptional talent none the less. Stroud has fallen short of 40 tackles for the past two seasons and recorded career lows in both tackles (32) and sacks (1) last season. He should rebound to his normal production in the area of 40 tackles and 5 sacks but his upside is limited.
Linebacker When Mike Peterson made the move from WLB in Indy to MLB in Jacksonville 3 years ago, his production dipped as he was a little slow to adapt to the new position. That problem is well in his past now. Not only has Peterson taken to the new position like a fish to water, but he may not yet have finished improving. His tackle production continued to rise in '05 when he added to all three numbers totaling 95-37-6 despite playing very little in week 17. The combination of an improved pressure defense and an increased comfort level helped Peterson to a considerable boost in big play production as well. No longer is he just a tackling machine. In '05 Peterson contributed a career best 6 sacks, forced two fumbles, recovered one and picked off three passes while finishing in or near the top 5 in most scoring systems. Along with becoming a big play threat, Peterson is dependable and consistent. With questions surrounding Vilma, Edwards and Lewis, Peterson could very well be in contention for the honor of the fantasy games #1 linebacker in '06... Daryl Smith is an interesting prospect this year. As a rookie in '04 he was stuck at SLB where he played fairly well but was unable to overcome the limitations of the position. Last season the Jags went to more of a right and left OLB which gave Smith a taste of weak side responsibilities. The result was a considerable spike in production and a top 50 fantasy finish. This year the club has apparently scrapped the right and left idea and moved Smith into a full time WLB role. He has the physical tools to become an outstanding player at the position and should continue to improve on last year's numbers of 69-12-3. What remains to be seen is just how far he can rise while playing in the shadow of Peterson. It's safe to expect that Smith will at the least provide quality backup numbers in '06 and he has the potential to rise as high as a quality #2... History proves that the Jaguars SLB position has very little to offer fantasy owners. Last year's 6th round pick Pat Thomas has impressed the coaching staff enough to enter training camp at the top of the depth chart at the position. He will see plenty of competition from former Giant Nick Greisen and rookie 3rd round pick Clint Ingram. Greisen is a versatile veteran backup who will likely end up as the top reserve at all three positions.
Defensive Back Jacksonville has never produced a really strong fantasy DB. Donovin Darius is about as close as they have come. He has started at SS since '98 so he pretty much represents the history of the position. That considered, it's hard to say if his lack of box score value is a product of the system or because he's just not as special as some make him out to be. I tend to lean toward the later theory. Darius has been with the team through HC and DC changes and has seen a handful of different scheme variations but nothing has been able to prod his number to a useful level. Over his 7 years as a starter he's never turned in more than 70 tackles, has just 2 sacks, and has recorded 2 or fewer picks 5 times. Despite the lack of impressive numbers Darius is a big hard hitting player who rarely makes mistakes and fits well in the Jaguars physical scheme. Unfortunately there are no fantasy points awarded for intimidation... The FS position has been even less fantasy friendly over the years and Deon Grant has done nothing to buck that trend over his two season at the post. In 32 starts he has managed just 105 tackles and 5 picks while finishing outside of the top 60 both years. At 210 pounds Grant is big for a FS but he is more of a finesse player who is too often 1 step too late to get credit for a tackle. Grant's lack of production can be tracked back to his Carolina days where he averaged well below 60 tackles over three seasons as a starter... Corner Rashean Mathis quietly turned in a top 30 finish last season, the best of his brief career. Mathis has averaged 60 solo tackles over his three seasons and has 5 picks in each of the last two. If your league awards points for passes defended he has even more value. Mathis was credited with 23 in '04 and 15 last season. He was very consistent in '05 for a corner, scoring at least 5 points in 12 games. Keeping in mind that corners often fail to repeat quality production, owners in leagues that require the position should place a fairly high value on him. For the rest of us he could be picked up late for depth... Brian Williams put up some quality numbers for the Vikings a couple of years back but as corners often do he followed a top 15 finish in '03 with a 60 something in '04 and then was demoted to nickel duties last season. He's a solid #2 corner and will make a good compliment to Mathis but he doesn't carry much fantasy expectation... Second year man Scott Starks will battle veteran Terry Cousins for the nickel duties.
Houston Texans Defensive Line The big news here is not that the Texans passed on Reggie Bush for Mario Williams buy why. The Texans cleaned house after yet another dismal display in '05. When the coaching staff was swept out the door the 3-4 defense went with them. Suddenly the team found themselves in dire need of a defensive end who could actually rush the passer. Mario Williams certainly fits that description. As a junior at North Carolina State last year Williams won all ACC honors after recording 24 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. He has tackle size at 6'7" and 295, but incredibly runs a 4.73 in the 40. He'll be under a great deal of scrutiny and pressure after being the #1 overall pick but this kid could prove to be something very special right from the start. One of his new team mates described Williams as Jevon Kearse and Julius Peppers rolled into one. Coincidentally Kearse racked up 14.5 sacks as a rookie while Peppers piled up 12... Williams will play full time right away but the coaching staff now has to find someone to play on the other end who can take a least a little bit of pressure off the rookie. This may prove tougher than it sounds. Via free agency they added former Raven Anthony Weaver and former Eagle ND Kalu. It didn't take the coaches long to realize what the Baltimore staff never did. Weaver is a tackle not an end. That leaves Kalu to battle Antwan Peek and Jason Babin who had both worked at OLB in the old scheme. These guys were tweeners coming out of college. Peek checks in at just 237 while Babin is 252. Size wise they are comparable to Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. At this point the coaching staff would be ecstatic if they could be half that productive. On the other hand both players basically flopped as 3-4 linebackers. Maybe this is just what they needed... The way it projects is that Weaver could see some time at end on early downs, then slide inside in passing situations. Kalu is the early favorite to win the rush end role but Babin might make him work for it... The Texans should be in good shape at the tackle positions. Robaire Smith started there for Tennessee prior to joining Houston, so he shouldn't miss a beat. Seth Payne spent 5 years at tackle for the Jaguars and was the starter in '01 before moving to Houston. In his first season with the Texans Payne pulled of the impressive feat of recording 54 solo tackles from the fantasy unfriendly nose tackle position... Travis Johnson will also work into the mix as will Weaver in passing situations. It appears there could be a lot of role players on this unit with Williams likely the only every down factor and probably the only quality fantasy option. Dynasty owners should be all over the kid while the rest of the fantasy community shouldn't be afraid to count on him right away either.
Linebacker There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the Texans linebacker positions. Kailee Wong is a versatile player who could be a solid SLB but he is coming off a major knee injury and may open the season on the PUP list. Shantee Orr sits atop the depth chart at the position heading into training camp. He is a former waiver pickup who was one of the few bright spots in a dismal '05 season for the Texans. Orr surprised and impressed everyone by leading the club with 7 sacks despite starting just 12 games. The club is in a rebuilding state but Orr has a real chance at being the long term answer. He could excel in a role similar to that of Adalius Thomas or LeRoy Hill who are two of the better pass rushing 4-3 linebackers in the league. Unless Wong can get healthy, Orr doesn't seem to have much competition for the job... Unlike the SLB position, there is no lack of competition at MLB. Sam Cowart was signed via free agency and is expected to step up to claim the starting job. Unfortunately he has been fighting a sore calf and Achilles that has kept him out of most off season activities. As a result journeyman Wali Rainer has been working with the first unit. Regardless of what we hear about Rainer, don't make the mistake of wasting a pick on him. He's a quality backup and special teams contributor but he's already been proven beyond doubt that he is not an NFL starter. Cowart on the other hand, has proven that he is, but now needs to show that he can stay healthy. He missed all of the '01 season with a torn Achilles which is one reason the problem he's been experiencing is raising eyebrows, but people tend to forget that he came back strong in '02 and '03 when he led the Jets in tackles for two straight years and totaled 187-80-3 while finishing in the top 20 both seasons. Cowart was off to another strong start in '04 when a knee sprain opened the door for then rookie sensation Jonathan Vilma. Cowart never regained the job and moved on to Minnesota last season where the scheme and a multitude of situational substitutions pretty much ruined everyone. He only put up 72-13-2 for the Vikings but take into consideration that he was the club's second leading tackler. Cowart is 31 years old and not the player he was a few years back but he can still get it done... At WLB Morlon Greenwood enters camp as the starter. He is not a guy that has ever been impressive either on the field or in the box scores. Greenwood had a golden opportunity to shine last season when the Texans defense was nothing short of dismal. To his credit he was able to put up a career best 82-30-2, but those aren't impressive numbers if you compare them with the back to back seasons of triple digit tackles that an average player like Jay Foreman turned in from the same position in '02 and '03... The wild card in this mix is rookie DeMeco Ryans who has been working at both the middle and weak side positions during offseason activities and has captured the attention of fans and coaches alike. Last season Ryans not only led Alabama in tackles but won all ACC honors as well. He is an old school linebacker who plays with intelligence, intensity and the kind of real nasty streak that the Texans new coaching staff would like to build their team around. There is little doubt he will get on the field early and often this season, the only questions being where and how early. Chances are Ryans eventually will end up in his natural MLB position but the coaching staff will want to get their best three linebackers on the field this year. If Cowart stays healthy he is one of those three, which would point to Ryans playing on the weak side. Both Ryans and Cowart are guys who are flying under the radar in most drafts and can be had very late. If you have the room I suggest you grab them both. That way you are all but certain to have the leading tackler on a defense that was on the field for a league high 850+ plays in '05 and is in the early stages of rebuilding. It's not a big stretch to think that both Ryans and Cowart could hit 90+ tackles.
Defensive Back The Texans starting secondary should be a fairly strong unit in '06 but they aren't without their issues. Dunta Robinson enters his third season and is beginning to establish himself as one of the leagues better corners. He is also a perfect example of the rookie corner rule at work. As a rook in '04 Robinson was thrown to the wolves. He started all 16 games and went 74-14-3 with 6 picks, 3 FF and an overall ranking in or near the top 5 of most scoring systems. Offenses targeted his inexperience as a weakness of the defense and he was picked on mercilessly. As with most stud corners, Robinson used the experience to improved greatly in his second season and offensive coordinators were forced to show him some respect. No longer considered the weak link, he wasn't tried as often resulting in an across the board drop off in numbers and a final ranking around 40. Robinson will have more opportunity than corners on good defenses so he should retain some value, especially for owners who must start corners, but unless he can step way up in the big play columns, Robinson may never again see the top 20... Phillip Buchanon will get the nod opposite Robinson. He is a quality corner most of the time but has a tendency to be inconsistent both on the field and in the box scores. It was the inconsistency and lack of intensity (along with a bunch of missed tackles) that earned him a ticket out of Oakland after the '04 season. The Texans new coaching staff will have to find a way to keep Buchanon motivated. If they are successful he can be a very good player for them. Over his final 2 season with the Raiders Buchanon recorded 92 tackles and 9 picks in 28 games. He posted only 29 tackles and failed to record a pick last year in 10 starts before landing on IR with an ankle sprain. Over his 4 seasons Buchanon has never cracked the top 75 so there is no reason for anyone to get excited about him... Demarcus Faggins is a serviceable nickel corner who is basically keeping the seat warm until the club can make improvements... Glenn Earl is a very interesting fantasy prospect. He is intelligent, fast, covers well, has a nasty streak and at 6'1" and 215 he packs a wallop. The Texans coaching staff sees Earl as a long term prospect who could become a mainstay at the position for them if only he can stay on the field. He's missed 10 games over the past two seasons including the first 6 last year when an early shoulder injury landed him on the PUP list to open the season. Earl regained his starting job in week 11 and for the first time will enter training camp both as the starter and healthy. In the past Houston's safeties have produced marginal fantasy numbers but don't underestimate the difference that could come with the change of scheme. This unit is a work in progress and will very likely struggle for at least one more season. If he can stay healthy Earl could prove a very productive late round pickup... In '05 C.C. Brown quickly ascended from being a 6th round pick in April to a starting job in September. Despite average numbers as a rookie, the club believes they have discovered a hidden gem in Brown. He is a solid pass defender who excels in zone coverage and doesn't hesitate to lower the boom on receivers coming over the middle. Playing FS can be somewhat of a disadvantage when it comes to the box scores but considering the situation here, Brown is worth consideration late in your draft.
Indianapolis Colts Defensive Line The Colts take a somewhat strange approach when it comes to defensive line play. They are by far the smallest unit in the league and probably the only club with no starters up front that weigh 300 pounds or more. In fact Montae Reagor is their biggest starter at 285 and the only 300+ pounder on the roster is Corey Simon who is a situational player. In this scheme bulk and power are traded for quickness and athleticism. One might expect that as a result of this approach, the Colts would also be trading a strong run defense in order to excel at rushing the passer. That wasn't exactly the case in '05 as Indy still edged into the top half of the league in run defense while finishing among the league leaders with 45 sacks and 31 takeaways. One very important factor here is that with all the speed and quickness up front the Colts don't have to depend on the blitz for pressure. An amazing 40 of those sacks were recorded by linemen. No other unit in the league even comes close. Where the problem comes in for fantasy owners is that these guys don't generate enough, or at least consistent enough tackle numbers. To counter the effects of bigger blockers wearing them down late in games, the Colts make a lot of substitutions to keep their guys fresh and quick. As a result Dwight Freeney has 49.5 sacks over the past 4 seasons but he hasn't posted more than 32 tackles since '02 and he has yet to land a top 10 fantasy finish in his career. Robert Mathis could be the exception here. Last season he finished 9th among fantasy DL on the strength of a 46-10-11 mark with an incredible 8 forced fumbles. What is more impressive is that he did it in just 13 games and while sharing time with Raheem Brock. With Larry Triplett gone to Buffalo, the plan is to move Brock inside as a full time tackle with Mathis taking over the starting DE job. It would be easy to assume that with more playing time Mathis' numbers would be even better. Keep in mind however that Mathis is only 235 pounds. He may be the official starter but chances are he still won't play on every down. If he does he will be worn out from fighting with 290 pound tackles and/or 260 pound tight ends. I am as impressed as anyone by what Mathis accomplished last season but I refuse to swallow the hook. His role during the '04 season was very similar when he also produced 11 sacks but only 22 tackles in 11 games. Besides it's not a coincidence that no other Colts lineman recorded more than 35 tackles last year. I'll have to see it again before believing that the tackle production wasn't a fluke... With Brock playing at tackle Josh Thomas becomes the next in line to see action in the DE rotation. Thomas displayed some ability last year by recording 2.5 sacks in very limited playing time. While he will see more action this year, barring an injury to Freeney or Mathis, Thomas still won't get enough to become a fantasy factor. That said, keep in mind that Mathis has yet to play more than 13 games in a season... Those of you in leagues that separate the positions will want to bump Brock well up on your draft boards. He was the #2 tackle producer among Colts linemen last year with 35 solo and should at least match that number this year. Brock is also a very strong pass rusher from the inside and should chip in 6-7 sacks as well. On passing downs Brock will team with Montae Reagor who is also a good inside pass rusher with 11.5 sacks over the past two seasons. In running situations Brock could still see a little action at end while wide bodied run stuffer Corey Simon could pair with Reagor on the interior... To sum it all up, there will be a lot of sacks recorded by this group again in '06 but all 6 of these guys are going to have significant enough roles that the tackle numbers will continue to be spread pretty thin.
Linebacker If the leagues big physical nasty linebackers were hornets, the Colts linebackers would be yellow jackets. They aren't as intimidating or physically dominating but they are quicker and sting almost as hard. Right OLB Cato June is just 227 pounds. He hits like a linebacker but runs and covers like a strong safety. June began to make some fantasy noise with a top 25 finish in '04 when he fell just shy of 80 solo stops. He was off and running in his second year as the starter, on pace for 90 solo tackles when he began struggling with a sports hernia that eventually caused him to miss 3 games and forced a significant drop in production late in the year. He managed 4 or fewer stops in 3 of his last 4 regular season starts. June had the hernia repaired right after the playoff loss and should be 100% for training camp. When last year's camp opened there were at least some concerns that Gilbert Gardner could push June for playing time. Gardner is now taking over the vacant left OLB position so June has no one looking over his shoulder this year. He should at the least make a quality #3 starter in '06 and has the potential to be a good #2. The only thing holding him back a little is the fact that Indy uses right and left outside backers. June will have weak side responsibilities roughly 75% of the time but will lose a few tackles when he has to work from a strong side alignment... Gardner steps into the job vacated by former mainstay David Thornton. He was expected to have claimed a job prior to this season but his rookie campaign was lost to injury and his leaning curve was pushed back a year or so. The coaching staff apparently believes Gardner is ready or they wouldn't have let Thornton walk. On the other hand if they were completely sold would they have spend a third round pick on Freddie Keiaho to back him up? Tony Dungy is a defensive mastermind who always seems to have some young project being groomed and ready to step up when a veteran moves on. Keep and eye on young Freddie's career, we may hear his name often in a couple of years... Prior to last year it had been a long time since the Colts had a really good MLB. Gary Brackett abruptly ended that streak of futility when he emerged as the team's leading tackler and a playmaker. Brackett is one of the leagues feel good stories. A guy who won a roster spot back in '03 as an undrafted free agent playing on special teams, then worked his way to become a quality starter. At 5'11" and 235 he is a little undersized for the position but makes up for the lack of stature by playing with both heart and head. Brackett is as fundamentally sound as any linebacker in the game. He excels in pass coverage and has improved enough against the run that he is certainly not a liability. What makes Brackett even more attractive in fantasy terms is consistency. Only twice all last season did he fail to score at least 5 points for his owners while he put up 5 or more solo stops 11 times on the way to a final mark of 92-35-1 with 3 picks, and a top 20 ranking. Brackett is not a flashy player and will be undervalued by many owners who simply haven't taken a close enough look. He should produce numbers that rank with the quality #2 guys but in many leagues, will be drafted with the number three crowd.
Defensive Back Indy has had plenty of trouble keeping defensive backs healthy over the past couple of seasons. As a result, the only Colts DB to break the top 60 in either of those years was Bob Sanders with a 40 something finish in '05. Don't be deceived by the overall numbers of the individuals. There is a lot of fantasy potential here, it just comes with a lot of risk attached. Sanders ended last year with a mark of 72-20-0 and relatively low big play production that included just 1 FF, 1 FR and 1 pick. Obviously those aren't impressive totals but keep this in mind, he missed 2 games at the end of the season when he was rested before the playoffs and in the two games versus the offensively challenged Texans he totaled just 1-4-0. If you take out those 4 games and project the rest of his numbers over a full season, Sanders would have been at 95 tackles. Eight times over those other 12 games he recorded at least 6 solo stops. On the down side, Sanders missed 11 games in '04 and though he missed just the 2 last year, he was on the injury report 7 other weeks. If he can ever stay healthy for a full slate of games he would likely be a top 10 DB and could even make a run a #1... FS Mike Doss missed 6 games in '04 but managed to start 15 straight after missing the opener in '05. Doss is a solid and dependable FS who makes some big hits and few mistakes but the coaching staff wants more from the position. He's started 40 games over three years in Indy but has just 5 interceptions and 12 passes defended to show for it. In a scheme that is predicated on big plays, that kind of production will have the club looking for other options and apparently they are. There has been some speculation/rumor that the Colts are considering last years first round pick Marlin Jackson as an option. He isn't as big as Doss but is faster and was a playmaker at Michigan during his college days. Jackson saw significant action in a variety of situations as a rookie but spent most of his time working as the nickel corner. He could only muster 1 interception but the coaching staff believes that with experience and confidence that will change. The FS position in Tampa-2 schemes is not a naturally productive one so whatever happens here, the starter will provide only moderate production at best... The left corner position in a Tampa-2 scheme carries a great deal of potential. With the safeties often playing deep, the corners are called upon to help out in run support and the left corner virtually becomes a strong safety. Back in '03 Nick Harper piled up an 82-13-0 with 4 picks and a top 10 fantasy ranking from the position. Although he's missed just 3 games in the 2 seasons since that time, Harper has shown up on the injury report a whopping 19 times, totaled only 118 solo tackles and finished outside the top 50 twice. If he struggles to stay healthy again in '06, we may see Jackson or even rookie Tim Jennings get a shot at the job... Jason David will enter camp as the starter on the right side. He is a decent #2 corner but may eventually migrate into the nickel corner role that he is probably best suited for. Much depends on the health issues throughout the secondary and how quickly Jennings develops.
Tennessee Titans Defensive Line Heading into last season the Titans DL was considered very young with a lot of potential. At that point everyone expected them to be starting a pair of second year players at the ends. Very few of us foresaw the breakout season by Kyle Vanden Bosch but this is what I had to say about him in last year's preseason report "The wildcard on the DL is veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch. The former Cardinal has a motor that never stops and is taking on a leadership role with the youngsters. Vanden Bosch showed great promise in Arizona before his career was washed out by knee injuries in back to back seasons. He's now healthy and motivated to show the Cardinals that they gave up on him too quickly". With 12.5 sacks last season it's safe to say that Vanden Bosch made his point. He has emerged as a veteran leader not only among the young linemen but for the whole defensive unit. Of the top 8 linemen on the depth chart only Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth have more than 2 years in the league. Vanden Bosch had some shoulder issues late in '05 that required surgery in the offseason There are a lot of writers pointing toward the injury as a reason to stay away from him. The way I see it, the Titans weren't too concerned when they inked him to a 4 year 22 million dollar deal, so why should we be concerned? Vanden Bosch has already returned to participate in team activities and is expected to be 100% in plenty of time. That said, there is one point of concern that I have. Vandy posted a mark of 41-25-12.5 with 4 FF and 1 recovery which landed him in the top 10. But he has some consistency issues. 9 of his sacks came in 4 games and he has a tendency to be shut down by the leagues better offensive tackles. In 4 games against the Colts (twice), Bengals and Seahawks, Vanden Bosch totaled just 2-7-0. If you pick him up as a starter it might be a good idea to land another quality option and keep an eye on the match up from week to week... There are some experts, including a couple of FBG staffers, who believe Travis LaBoy will break out and surpass Vandy this season. While I don't share their optimism so far as his being the top option here, I do agree that he is a player on the verge of big things. LaBoy didn't claim the starting job until November so look deeper than his 27-13-6 totals for the year. In the 7 games that he started, LaBoy totaled 21 solo tackles. Even if he doesn't improve on the sack total (which I strongly believe he will) those numbers projected over a full season would look something like 48-20-6, and would make him a quality option for depth at the very least... The trio of Haynesworth, Randy Starks and Rien Long give the Titans a quality rotation at the tackles. While Haynesworth is considered the anchor of the run defense, all three of these guys are 300 plus and are basically interchangeable. They put up 10 sacks between them last season but unfortunately none of them were able make a big impact in the box scores. In fact it's been several years since a Titans DT has reached 40 tackles and I don't remember one ever collecting more than 5-6 sacks. If your league requires tackles, Haynesworth may be worthy as a backup.
Linebacker Over the past several years the Titans have gotten by without giving the LB position any serious attention. The last time they used a draft pick in any of the first three rounds on a linebacker was '00 when they selected Keith Bulluck in the first. They sure got that one right. Bulluck became a starter at WLB in '02 and all he's done since is to average 102 solo tackles over four seasons and become one of the elite in both the NFL and fantasy terms. Bulluck is more than just a tackling machine, he's a serious big play threat as well. Since landing the full time job Bulluck has 14 sacks, 7 picks, 10 forced fumbles, 6 recoveries and 3 touchdowns. He is incredibly consistent as well. Last season he posted 8 or more fantasy points in 11 games and only once fell short of 5. With questions surrounding Ray Lewis (injury), Donnie Edwards (age) and Jonathan Vilma (scheme change), plus the fact that he has three consecutive top 5 finishes, it's difficult to argue against Bulluck being the first defensive player off the board... For some reason the Titans refuse to seriously address a MLB position. Instead they have recently tried to get by with guys like Rocky Calmus, Rocky Boiman and Brad Kassell. Calmus couldn't stay healthy and the other two are backup caliber players. They have a different plan for this season but it remains to seen if it will work any better. Still refusing to spend an early draft pick, the club instead added free agent David Thornton. While Thornton may not be a flashy high profile guy, an argument can be made that he was the best all around linebacker in free agency. Thornton is versatile, durable and is a proven starter. This is where it gets interesting. The Titans plan to move former starting SLB Peter Sirmon inside and insert Thornton in his place. The problem is, Sirmon has never played inside and has made it known that he's not a fan of the whole idea. He also made it clear that he is a team player and will apply himself 100% to whatever the coaching staff asks of him. Like Bulluck, Sirmon also claimed his first starting role in '02. He immediately proved his metal by pressing at SLB and remaining on the field in passing situations. Strong side duties limited his tackle production to an extent but with the extra snaps he was still able to post 72 solo stops in just 12 starts and was a strong fantasy pickup. The problem is that since '02 Sirmon has battled both nagging injuries ('03 & '05) and a major knee injury that ended his '04 campaign during training camp. If it works this could be a very smart move all the way around. Sirmon is bigger, slower and probably better suited for the inside than Thornton but is probably still one of the clubs 3 best linebackers. There is a wild card very much in play here. The coaching staff has high expectations for rookie 4th round pick Stephen Tulloch. Both he and third year man Robert Reynolds are expected to get long looks at MLB. Tullock is the fastest of the group which could give him an edge. Titans have kept no secrets about looking to get faster. The other thing that could be a factor is the all mighty dollar. Sirmon has a fairly stiff cap number in the 2.4 million range. If he fails to win the starting job, he could be out of one all together. Training camp will answer two questions for us, who starts at MLB and maybe more importantly, who stays on the field with Bulluck in the nickel package. At this point my money is on Thornton for the later, at least in the short term. That said, keep an eye on Tulloch, especially in dynasty leagues.
Defensive Back Titans defensive backs have been on an extended hiatus when it comes to fantasy production. You have to look all the way back to '02 before you find a Titan in the top 40. The question at this point becomes, do you blame the scheme or has it been a lack of production from the players? The answer likely falls somewhere in between but the fact is that no Titan DB has recorded more than 62 solo tackles over the past 3 seasons. FS Lamont Thompson has led the DB charge with 117 stops and 5 picks over the past two years. He's a quality free safety in NFL terms but has fallen well short in the box scores... In Adam "Pac Man" Jones the Titans have a very talented young gun with the potential to become one of the leagues premier corners, if he can stay out of trouble long enough to grow up. That said, if he was unable to make a fantasy splash under the rookie corner rule, chances are he has missed his only opportunity. Jones will only get better with time and may already be at the point where offenses look to avoid rather than pick on him. Reynaldo Hill will battle Andre Woolfolk for the other starting job during camp with the odd man out taking over the nickel duties. Considering that no Tennessee corner has reached the 45 tackle plateau for at least the past 4 seasons, it is safe to say you should avoid these guys as well... The only real "hope" this unit provides for quality box score production is former Steelers starter Chris Hope. For several years Tank Williams floundered at the SS position here. With a career best of just 58 solo tackles he's never come close to being a quality fantasy option. Hope on the other hand, broke a similar drought last year when he put the Steelers FS position on the fantasy map with a top 25 finish for the first time in memory. Hope moves over to SS this year where he has a lot more potential. With Williams playing SS in Minnesota we will soon have 2 measuring sticks to gage this situation. If Williams produces for the Vikings and/or Hope fails to do so for the Titans, we will know to blame the scheme. My suggestion would be to pass on Titans defensive back all together. Hope will very likely go undrafted in most leagues so you should be able to pick him up once he demonstrates some production.
That about does it for the AFC side of this year's preseason effort. Hope everyone finds something in there that will help in your quest for the Gold. The second half of the report (NFC) should be out during the first week of August. Until then keep in mind that championships are won in the off season! |
|
Contact
Us | Login
/ Signup
©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved. |