Week 20 Rushing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Chicago Bears Rushing Offense vs New Orleans Saints Rushing Defense (Great Matchup)

These teams last met during the post-Katrina "gypsy season" of 2005 on New Orleans' part - a lot has changed since week 9 of 2005, when the clubs played in Tiger Stadium. Normally, recent history is worth a glance but in this case too much has changed since 2005 - it's a brand new season for both clubs.

Chicago comes into this game sporting the league's 15th ranked rushing attack, averaging 119.9 yards per game. However, with Thomas Jones returning from 2 weeks of rest and Cedric Benson's relatively fresh legs, the Bears rang up 34/120/2 against the the Seahawks last week. Jones posted 21/66/2, while Benson ground out 12/45/0 (Jones snagged 2/6/0 receiving, while Benson snagged 3/24/0). At this point, Jones looks like the type of goal-line ball carrier who can put basic-scoring leaguers over the top.

New Orleans handed over 20/123/2 to the Eagles last week, and were 23rd in the NFL during 2006 averaging 128.9 rushing yards allowed per game. During regular season, the Saints gave up a spare 10 rushing scores, but that stingy record crumbled vs. the Eagles.

The Saints are sub-par in this phase of the game. Advantage, Chicago - they have home field at their back, a relatively weak opposing defense, and well-rested players.

Weather: Soldier Field expects a high of 34F and a low of 28F on Sunday, with a 30% chance of rain/sleet/snow. If the sky opens up at gametime, footing, ball handling and visibility could all become problematic for both teams.

CHI Injuries: WR Mark Bradley (Questionable)
NO Injuries: DB Omar Stoutmire (Questionable)

Indianapolis Colts Rushing Offense vs New England Patriots Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The Colts and Patriots clashed back on November 5th, 2006 (week 9), and when the dust had settled the Colts were 8-0 with a 27-20 victory. However, the ground game was not very productive during that contest, with 25/53/1 as a team - Joseph Addai led the charge with 18/43/1, while Dominic Rhodes could only manage 4/13/0. Addai has been the featured back since the playoffs began, but recent injuries - to his chest during the wild card round, and then a shoulder injury during the divisional round - contributed to limit Addai to 18/39/0 rushing and 3/22/0 receiving vs. Baltimore last week. He was unable to complete the game, and watched Rhodes rack up 14/56/0 rushing in relief duty during the second half last week. As coach Dungy stated after the game: "He's OK, he hurt his shoulder and made it through the first half OK...I think Joseph could have played, but just like last week (against Kansas City), there was no need because Dom was getting the job done." At this point, the Colts' rushing attack is a productive but community affair, with Addai and Rhodes basically splitting time.

Somehow, the Patriots survived after allowing 33/148/3 rushing to the Chargers. The Jets' committee of backs averaged 4.4 yards per carry vs. New England (16/70/0) during the wild-card round. After landing in the top 10 vs. the rush during regular season (5th, averaging 94.2 yards per carry, with 11 rushing TDs allowed), the Pats have been generous with yards and scores during the post-season.

This matchup looks pretty neutral to us. The Colts have home field advantage, but they're a little banged up.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be a factor.

IND Injuries: WR Ricky Proehl (Questionable)
NE Injuries: DL Mike Wright (Questionable), DB Rodney Harrison (Doubtful)

New England Patriots Rushing Offense at Indianapolis Colts Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

The first time these teams faced off, Laurence Maroney (13/63/0) led the team in rushing, while Corey Dillon posted 13/48/2 on the ground, and Kevin Faulk chipped in with 4/24/0 rushing. Ultimately, the Colts won 27-20, but it wasn't due to a lack of effort on the Patriots' running backs part (New England had 33/148/2 rushing on the day).

At San Diego last week, Maroney was frustrated by the Chargers (5/5/0 rushing, 0/0/0 receiving) - Dillon didn't do much better, with 8/18/0 rushing and no receptions. Faulk handled the ball 8 times (6/25/0 rushing and 2/11/0 receiving) - as you can see, the Patriots were not dominant vs. San Diego when it came to rushing the ball. New England sports a multi-faceted stable, but last week, all of the ball carriers were cold.

As Pat Kirwan pointed out on NFL.com earlier this week, the Colt's rush D has suddenly become dominant. They have shaved almost 2 yards a carry off of their yards-allowed average during the playoffs (5.3 during regular season; 3.4 per carry during post season) and the Colts have only allowed 3 third down conversions through the first two games that they have played during January. That is stout defense, folks. Time of possession by opposing offenses has plummeted to just 24:37 on average - this unit is playing outstanding football during 2007. Baltimore did manage 20/83/0 last week (a 4.2 yards-per-carry average), but when it counted the Ravens' backs couldn't find any lanes to exploit.

It's hard to believe that this is a tough matchup for Maroney, Dillon, and Faulk, but the Colts' defenders have remade themselves during the playoffs. New England's backs have a big challenge in front of them this week in Indianapolis.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be a factor.

NE Injuries: QB Tom Brady (Probable), WR Troy Brown (Questionable)
IND Injuries: LB Cato June (Questionable), DB Nick Harper (Questionable), DB Bob Sanders (Questionable)

New Orleans Saints Rushing Offense at Chicago Bears Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

These teams last met during the post-Katrina "gypsy season" of 2005 on New Orleans' part - a lot has changed since week 9 of 2005, when the clubs played in Tiger Stadium. Aaron Brooks is gone, Reggie Bush has joined the team, and Sean Payton is the head coach, to name only 3 of the many significant changes in New Orleans this year.

The Saints' back field was outstanding during the regular season, and they continued their dominance last week against the Eagles. Deuce McAllister posted 21/143/1 rushing and 4/20/1 receiving last week, while Reggie Bush contributed 12/52/1 rushing and 3/22/0 receiving. They are one of the top RB tandems in the NFL.

It can't be fun to game plan against the Saints. Good luck, Ron Rivera.

The Bears stumbled in this phase of the game last week, giving up 31/127/2 to Seattle in Soldier Field, after closing regular season with 34/97/0 allowed to the Packers in week 17. Overall, the Bears were the 6th best rush D during regular season, averaging 99.4 yards allowed per game (only 7 rushing TDs over 16 games were given up). They are generally tough to score on, but Seattle pushed the Bears hard last week.

Chicago is normally tough, but they looked off-pace last week. Meanwhile, the Saints kept on marching to the end-zone during their first playoff victory of the new year. McAllister and Bush will have to fight hard to bring the Saints to the Super Bowl as we think the Bears will get back to their normal form.

NO Injuries: WR Joe Horn (Questionable), TE Mark Campbell (Questionable)
CHI Injuries: DL Adewale Ogunleye (Probable)

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