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Week 19 Rushing Matchupsby Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com[BAL] [CHI] [IND] [NE] [NO] [PHI] [SD] [SEA]
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup. Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week. Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.
Chicago Bears Rushing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Rushing Defense (Great Matchup) These teams faced off on October 1st, and the game was a rout in favor of Chicago (37-6). Thomas Jones scored twice (24/98/2 rushing and 2/9/0 receiving), while Cedric Benson chipped in 11/37/0 on the ground (the Bears ran up 38/143/2 on the day). As the season moved along, Jones remained the top back in Chicago with Benson in reserve, but the accumulation of dings and wear-and-tear on Jones' body limited Jones somewhat during the final weeks of regular season - he carried the ball 49 times (49/233/2) during the final 4 games of regular season, while Benson toted the ball 59 times (59/275/1). Coming into this game off a bye week (with the chance to heal up his starters), coach Lovie Smith is expecting to rely on Jones a lot: "Our trend, as it’s been all along, is to play both running backs," Smith stated when asked about the plan for the playoffs. "The situations have allowed Cedric to play more lately. Of course, he’s taken advantage of the reps he’s gotten. But, as we go into the playoffs, Thomas Jones is our starter. He’ll get the majority of the reps, and Cedric will be next in line." Something to keep in mind about this matchup - their is a forecast 60% chance for precipitation at Soldier Field as of midweek, with a high of 33F. If the wind is howling through Soldier Field during a snow-storm at game time, the Bears figure to hand the ball off to Jones and Benson early and often. Seattle hasn't been very good vs. opposing running backs during recent weeks - during week 15, Frank Gore and the 49ers posted 38/288/1 against Seattle. San Diego ripped them for 33/168/0 in week 16, and even the weak Tampa Bay unit managed 21/110/0 - that's better than 5 yards per carry allowed in every week over the final 3 games of regular season. Seattle averaged 126.8 rushing yards allowed per game last year (22nd in the NFL), with 12 rushing scores surrendered in 16 games during regular season. To open the post-season, they gave up 26/116/0 to a Dallas unit that hadn't impressed during the closing weeks of regular season - Seattle's rush D is suspect, folks. The Bears have home-field advantage, the advantage of a bye week to heal Thomas Jones' nicks and dings, and a weak rush defense coming to visit Soldier Field this week. Jones and Benson have a great matchup ahead of them for this divisional playoff game. Weather: The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 33F and a low of 22F on Sunday, with a 60% chance for precipitation. At this time of year, precipitation is likely to be sleet/snow, and winds can be very gusty in Chicago during January. In wintry conditions, ball handling, footing, and visibility may suffer, while wind gusts can pile on to make every phase of the game more tricky. Owners of Bears or Seahawks will want to check a shorter-term forecast before setting their playoff lineups this week.
CHI Injuries: RB Jason McKie (Questionable)
Baltimore Ravens Rushing Offense vs Indianapolis Colts Rushing Defense (Good Matchup) The last time these teams faced off was week 1 of 2005 - since then, Steve McNair has replaced Kyle Boller/Anthony Wright as the starting QB for Baltimore, and Jamal Lewis has had another year to rehab from his 2004 ankle injury/incarceration. The Ravens have improved their offense markedly in the year and a half since they last saw Indianapolis (Lewis could only eke out 16/48/0 rushing and 1/4/0 receiving in that game). Jamal Lewis finished the regular season with 314/1132/9 rushing and 18/115/0 receiving - the Ravens as a team averaged 3.4 yards per carry during 2006. However, the offense was mired in the doldrums during the first half of the season until Brian Billick assumed control of the play callings - since then, the team has performed better in all phases on offense. During the final 1/4 of regular season, Lewis compiled 90/336/3 rushing (a 3.73 yards per carry average) and 4/38/0 receiving. He's no longer the dominant 2,000 yard per season rusher he once was, but Lewis touched the ball 20+ times per game during the last 4 weeks of regular season and scored 1 TD per contest in 3 out of the last 4 games. Some good news for Lewis coming into this game - OG Keydrick Vincent (groin) and OT Jonathan Ogden (turf toe) are feeling healthier after the bye week and both expect to play vs. Indianapolis - their presence should help open up some larger holes for Lewis to run through. Up until last week's game vs. the Chiefs, the one glaringly obvious weakness on the Colt's squad was their league-worst rush D. The team averaged 173 rushing yards allowed per game to opponents, with 20 rushing TDs handed over during regular season. Ron Dayne gained 32/153/2 against the Colts 3 weeks ago. Miami posted 26/150/0 (a 5.8 yards per carry average) against Indy in week 17. However, when Kansas City arrived in the RCA Dome, they ran into a resurgent defensive front. Larry Johnson could only find room to gain 13/32/0 rushing and 5/29/0 receiving - the Chiefs posted a mere 17/44/0 on the ground last week. The Colts' defenders played a complete game last week, finishing their tackles with authority (instead of bouncing off their opponents) and generally playing at the top of their abilities. The question this week is - can Indianapolis' defenders maintain their focus and intensity in the hostile environs of M and T Bank Stadium? Lewis has been a consistent grinder for the Ravens during the later stages of regular season, and he's the sort of tough, up-the-gut runner that gave Indianapolis fits most of the year. The Colts elevated their play last week, but one game does not a season make - this looks like a good matchup for Lewis and the Ravens, who have home field advantage and a bye week of rest at their back. Weather: The forecast for M and T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 57F with a 40% chance for rain. If the precipitation comes down thickly at game time, footing, ball handling and visibility could all become issues for both teams.
BAL Injuries: TE Quinn Sypniewski (Questionable)
New England Patriots Rushing Offense at San Diego Chargers Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup) Corey Dillon did what he could against the Chargers the last time these teams met (week 4, 2005), posting 14/63/1 rushing and 1/23/0 receiving (the Chargers won 41-17, though). Of course, in the year since that game the Patriots have added Laurence Maroney to the mix - he's been pretty strong during his rookie campaign (175/745/6 rushing with 22/194/1 receiving). Dillon has been productive this past year, too, with 199/812/13 rushing and 15/147/0 receiving. Last week, the tandem split the workload, with Maroney toting the ball 18/69/0 while Dillon carried 10/53/1 and added 1/0/0 receiving. The Patriots as a team posted 38/158/1 against the Jets - Kevin Faulk chipped in 6/23/0 rushing and 1/7/1 receiving to round out the big day for the Patriots' backs. While neither Maroney or Dillon racks up huge numbers of carries in the committee approach, they both get double-digit touches and an opportunity to score most weeks. The Chargers were 7th in the NFL this past regular season, allowing an average of 100.8 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing scores to date. To close regular season, they handed over 22/98/1 to the Cardinals; Seattle posted 33/153/2 rushing vs. the Chargers in week 16. Larry Johnson and the Chiefs were held to 21/90/0 during week 15. Overall, the Chargers closed the season looking fairly mediocre in this phase of the game. The Patriots have a solid 1-2 punch in Dillon and Maroney, while the Chargers were only average at defending the run in the closing weeks of 2006. This looks like a neutral matchup for the visitors, who'll have to contend with a boisterous "12th man" in Qualcomm Stadium during this divisional playoff game.
Weather: The Chargers and Patriots can expect a high of 61F and a low of 40F with a 10% chance of rain at Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday - weather conditions shouldn't be a huge factor for either team.
NE Injuries: QB Tom Brady (Probable), RB Heath Evans (Questionable), WR Brandon Childress (Questionable), TE Ben Watson (Questionable)
New Orleans Saints Rushing Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup) The Eagles contained Deuce McAllister (12/64/0 rushing with 6/36/0 receiving) and Reggie Bush (11/26/0 rushing and 4/35/0 receiving) during their initial contest this season (week 6, a New Orleans victory 27-24). However, week 6 was a long time ago - as the year went along, Bush gained his sea-legs in the NFL and ended up with 155/565/6 rushing and 88/742/2 receiving, while Deuce McAllister racked up 244/1057/10 rushing and 30/198/0 receiving - they have become a very potent 1-2 combo. Both players should be well-rested and in fine shape for this game after a bye week (McAllister also sat out week 17 to shake off the accumulated wear-and-tear of regular season, and Bush had only a few snaps before sitting down for the rest of the game). Last week, the Giants posted 31/151/0 rushing during Tiki Barber's swan song performance - the Eagles kept the Giants out of the end-zone, but were fairly porous between the 20's. During the final weeks of regular season, the Eagles shut down the Cowboy's RBs in week 16 (10/38/0 rushing for Julius Jones, 6/3/0 rushing for Marion Barber III, and 19/83/0 for the Cowboys as a team). To close the season, their backups held Atlanta to 17 points in a victory (but allowed 34/159/0 to the Falcons on the ground). When the field gets compressed in the red-zone, the Eagles have kept their foes out of the end-zone - but they haven't been overwhelming in this phase of the game during 2 of the past 3 weeks. The Saints were able to move the ball vs. the Eagles during their first matchup, and will once again have home-field advantage at their backs. The Eagles have been gashed for large chunks of yardage of late, but toughen up in the red-zone - on balance, we think this is a decent matchup for the Saints, but they will have to battle to force the ball into the end-zone. Weather: Inside the Louisiana Superdome, weather won't be an issue for either team.
NO Injuries: WR Joe Horn (Questionable)
Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Offense at New Orleans Saints Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup) Back in week 6, Philly traveled to the Superdome and gave the Saints all they could handle, but lost at the buzzer (27-24 on a John Carney field goal at 15:00 in the 4th quarter). Brian Westbrook posted 16/72/0 rushing and 3/3/0 receiving during the game (change of pace back Correll Buckhalter gained 1/5/0 rushing and 1/10/0 receiving). The Eagles did score a rushing TD - Reggie Brown ran one in from 15 yards out (1/15/1 rushing and 6/121/1 receiving). Fast forwarding to last week's wild-card matchup vs. New York, Westbrook was the star of the offense with 20/141/1 rushing and 2/12/0 receiving - the Eagles posted 31/185/1 rushing as a team last week. Buckhalter chipped in with 6/17/0 rushing and 1/3/0 receiving vs. the Giants - the Eagles' rushing attack is rolling along nicely coming into this matchup. The Saints' starters took most of week 17 off, while the backups allowed 33/106/1 to the Panthers' RB stable. They limited the Giants to 18/83/0 during week 16, which followed up their soft week 15 showing vs. the Redskins (31/161/0 handed over). During the regular season, the Saints averaged 128.9 rushing yards allowed per game (23rd in the NFL), with 10 rushing TDs given up. They are mediocre-to-sub-par rush defenders most of the time, although they don't hand over TDs in bunches. Philadelphia's RB stable is playing well of late, while the Saints are only so-so. This looks like a neutral matchup for the Eagles. Weather: Inside the Louisiana Superdome, weather won't be an issue for either team.
PHI Injuries: RB Brian Westbrook (Probable), RB Ryan Moats (Probable), RB Thomas Tapeh (Questionable)
San Diego Chargers Rushing Offense vs New England Patriots Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup) The last time these teams have faced off during the past 2 years, on October 2, 2005 in Gillette Stadium, LaDainian Tomlinson steamrolled New England to the tune of 25/134/2 rushing and 3/34/0 receiving. Everyone who hasn't lived in a hole in the ground this past year is aware of Tomlinson's phenomenal regular season campaign (348/1815/28 rushing and 56/508/3 receiving). He's a big part of the reason that the Chargers went 14-2 and won 10 straight games to close 2006. While it is true that Tomlinson hasn't scored a TD during his last 2 games, he punched in 5 during the final 4 games of the year, including 3 against divisional rival Denver and 2 vs. divisional foe Kansas City. When the game is on the line, Tomlinson is the guy the Chargers turn to - in this do-or-die contest vs. the dangerous Patriots, expect the Chargers to feed him the ball early and often. The Patriots ranked 5th in the NFL this past season vs. opposing rushers, averaging 94.2 yards allowed per game (with 11 rushing scores given up to date). In the season finale vs. Tennessee, they handed over 25/135/1 rushing to the Titans; the Jags posted 22/144/2 during week 16; and Houston managed 22/105/1 rushing 4 weeks ago. However, during the wild card round the Patriots clamped down on the Jets' stable, allowing just 16/70/0 during the game en route to a 37-16 victory. During the wild-card round, the defense looked more like a top 10 rush D than they had in the closing weeks of regular season. We'll see if they can maintain their focus and intensity this week on the road at Qualcomm Stadium. Tomlinson had a season for the ages this past year, while the Patriots closed regular season looking fairly vulnerable in this phase of the game but rebounded for a decent showing during the wild card round. With the home crowd at Tomlinson's back, we think this is a neutral matchup for Tomlinson and the Chargers. Weather: The Chargers and Patriots can expect a high of 61F and a low of 40F with a 10% chance of rain at Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday - weather conditions shouldn't be a huge factor for either team.
SD Injuries: none
Indianapolis Colts Rushing Offense at Baltimore Ravens Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup) The last time Indy faced off against the Ravens, they had Edgerrin James at RB - a lot has changed for the Colts in the year and half between 9/11/2005 and this playoff matchup. James' replacement, Joseph Addai, got his first start of 2006 in the wild card round, and responded in impressive fashion, with 25/122/1 rushing and 7/26/0 receiving. His partner in the back field, Dominic Rhodes, also ran strongly against the Chiefs, with 13/68/0 rushing and 2/24/0 receiving - the Colts posted 40/188/1 on the ground vs. Kansas City as a team last week. The Colts' RB stable is on top of their game right now. Addai missed practice on Tuesday due to a sore chest, but is expected to play as normal vs. Baltimore. While the Colts are running the ball well, the Ravens have been shutting down most rushing attacks they face this year: the team was 2nd in the NFL averaging 75.9 rushing yards allowed per game, and gave up a mere 5 rushing TDs all season long. Buffalo could only muster 14/39/0 against Baltimore in the season finale; Pittsburgh ground out 18/63/0 in week 16 (only 13/29/0 for Willie Parker, though); 16/68/0 was alloted to Cleveland in week 15. One has to go back to week 14 vs. K.C. before finding a game in which the Ravens gave up more than 100 yards rushing (30/135/0), and even then they did not allow a rushing TD. This defensive front is as hard-nosed as they come in the NFL, and they have a week of rest at their backs coming into this home playoff game. Addai and Rhodes have a steep mountain to climb this week, facing the stubborn Ravens at M and T Bank Stadium. Weather: The forecast for M and T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 57F with a 40% chance for rain. If the precipitation comes down thickly at game time, footing, ball handling and visibility could all become issues for both teams.
IND Injuries: RB Joseph Addai (Questionable), WR Ricky Proehl (Questionable)
Seattle Seahawks Rushing Offense at Chicago Bears Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup) Shaun Alexander was sidelined due to a cracked bone in his foot the first time these teams played, on October 1st, 2006 - Seattle got beat up 37-6 in his absence. Over the final 3 weeks of regular season, Alexander scored 4 TDs in 3 games (82/305/4), and followed that up with 24/69/0 vs. the Cowboys in the wild, wild-card round game. He's playing pretty well of late, as you can see - with 20+ touches in 6 straight games, Alexander is getting plenty of opportunities to make plays every week. Chicago ranked 7th in the NFL during regular season, giving up an average of 99.4 rushing yards per game to the opposition. They are stubborn in the red-zone, too, with only 7 rushing TDs allowed during 16 contests this year. During the week 17 collapse to Green Bay, the Bears' rush D stayed firm, holding the Packers to 34/97/0 (a 2.9 yards-per-carry average). Detroit's injury depleted unit could only muster 18/67/0 against Chicago in week 16, and Tampa Bay posted 19/57/1 rushing the week prior. It is not easy to move the ball on the ground when your team faces Chicago. Alexander has gotten back in the game since the last time these teams met, but he'll face an uphill battle to move the ball against Chicago in Soldier Field this week. Weather: The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 33F and a low of 22F on Sunday, with a 60% chance for precipitation. At this time of year, precipitation is likely to be sleet/snow, and winds can be very gusty in Chicago during January. In wintry conditions, ball handling, footing, and visibility may suffer, while wind gusts can pile on to make every phase of the game more tricky. Owners of Bears or Seahawks will want to check a shorter-term forecast before setting their playoff lineups this week.
SEA Injuries: WR Darrell Jackson (Questionable), WR D.J. Hackett (Doubtful)
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