Week 18 Rushing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Kansas City Chiefs Rushing Offense at Indianapolis Colts Rushing Defense (Great Matchup)

These teams have not faced each other during the last 2 seasons - the Colts' and the Chiefs' coaching staffs will be watching a lot of tape on their opponent this week as there is not the familiarity between opponents that we'll see in Sunday's NYJ/NE and NYG/PHI matchups.

One glaringly obvious weakness on the Colt's squad is their league-worst rush D. The team has averaged 173 rushing yards allowed per game to opponents, with 20 rushing TDs handed over to date. Everyone knows how to push around the Colts - run the ball straight at them. It works almost every snap. Ron Dayne gained 32/153/2 against the Colts 2 weeks ago. Miami posted 26/150/0 (a 5.8 yards per carry average) against Indy in week 17. We could list almost every game this season and show how embarrassingly bad the Colts' run D is - but there is no need. Their season average tells the whole tale in this case.

Larry Johnson has posted a league-record 416 carries this season, racking up 416/1789/17 rushing and 41/410/2 receiving during regular season. He had over 100 yards rushing in 6 of the final 7 games of this season, and over 130 yards rushing in week 16 (31/135/1 vs. Oakland) and week 17 (33/138/3 against Jacksonville's fine (4th-ranked) rush D).

Johnson is poised to explode for an enormous game vs. the Colts. The sky is the limit for him - remember, Ron "Thunder" Dayne posted 32/153/2 against Indianapolis 2 weeks ago. Johnson is to Dayne as jet fuel is to crude oil.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be an issue for either the Colts or the Chiefs.

KC Injuries: QB Trent Green (Probable)
IND Injuries: LB Keith O'Neil (Questionable), DB Nick Harper (Questionable), DB Bob Sanders (Questionable)

Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Offense vs New York Giants Rushing Defense (Great Matchup)

During the first game of 2006 between these divisional foes (week 2), the Giants were listless through 3 quarters, but then they stormed back from a 17 point deficit in the 4th quarter and captured a "W" during the overtime period, 30-24. Brian Westbrook moved the ball with relative ease during the early game, with 19/68/1 rushing and 7/56/0 receiving. Correll Buckhalter chipped in with 6/6/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving on the way to 30/107/1 rushing for the Eagles as a team.

The story was different during week 15, with the Eagles throwing down a late surge in the 4th quarter to squash New York 36-22. Westbrook dominated the Giants that week, with 19/97/2 rushing and 5/40/0 receiving, and Buckhalter also found the end-zone with 8/48/1 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving. The Eagles tore up the injury-depleted Giants' D three weeks ago for 30/161/3 on the ground.

This week, the heated rivalry will be concluded at Lincoln Financial Field as the Eagles managed to become NFC East Champs during week 17 of the regular season, thanks to faltering by both Dallas (who lost to Detroit) and the Atlanta Falcons (who dropped a game to the Eagles' backups). The Eagles are soaring into the playoffs on the strength of a 5-game win streak, while the Giants dropped 6 of their final 8 games during regular season. Philly was able to rest their starting lineup for all but the first few minutes of week 17 thanks to the Dallas defeat - Westbrook and Buckhalter should be in decent shape coming into this matchup, although Buckhalter did injure his calf (a strain) during the season finale before taking a seat on the bench. In the game week 16, vs. Dallas, Westbrook gained 26/122/0 rushing and 2/6/0 receiving - since Philly's bye week 9 (excluding the shortened week 17 appearance), he's gone over 100 yards combined in every game he played, with 3 rushing TDs and 1 receiving score. Buckhalter has come on in the final weeks of the season, with both his scores coming against divisional rivals New York and Dallas during the closing weeks of the season. The Eagles' RB stable is running strong entering the playoffs.

The Giants' defense has been battered by injuries as the season progressed - one of the big differences between their performance in week 2 (30/107/1 allowed to the Eagles) and week 15 (30/161/3 given up to Philly) is the number of players lost to injury in the weeks between the matchups. Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, and Lavar Arrington are all on IR, weakening both the DL and the LB corps. As of the end of regular season, the Giants rank 14th in the NFL averaging 114.4 rushing yards allowed per game, with 19 rushing TDs given up - but they have coughed up 30/161/3, 53/236/2, and 29/128/1 to opposing rushers over the final 3 weeks of the season. They have been very vulnerable to opposing rushers lately (the Saints saw Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush both go over 100 yards rushing during week 16).

Westbrook and Buckhalter have a great matchup to work with this week when the Giants visit Lincoln Financial Field.

Weather: Lincoln Financial Field expects a high of 54F with a low of 42F and a 30% chance for precipitation on Sunday. If the moisture falls thickly at game time, footing, ball handling and visibility could all become issues - gusty winds can also make for difficult passing/kicking conditions in this venue. Owners of Eagles or Giants will want to look at a short-term forecast including wind conditions before setting their playoff fantasy lineups this week.

PHI Injuries: RB Ryan Moats (Probable)
NYG Injuries: none

Indianapolis Colts Rushing Offense vs Kansas City Chiefs Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

During the final quarter of the NFL regular season, Joseph Addai has assumed the primary RB role for the Colts. He's rung up 55/236/0 rushing and 10/80/0 receiving during those 4 weeks, vs. Dominic Rhodes' 38/120/1 rushing and 8/50/0 receiving in that same time span. Neither player has been an outstanding fantasy option in recent weeks, but Addai has seen more opportunities to make good things happen - he had 21/64/0 rushing and 3/29/0 receiving in week 17 vs. Miami, while Rhodes posted 9/42/0 rushing in a change of pace role.

San Diego blasted K.C. for 38/265/2 rushing back in week 15 (LaDainian Tomlinson (25/199/2 that day) has made a lot of rush defenses look bad this year). K.C. gave up 24/112/0 rushing to the Raiders in week 16, and followed up with 22/113/3 allowed to Jacksonville's many-headed monster last week. The Chiefs ranked 18th in the NFL this year allowing an average of 120.5 rushing yards per game, with 14 rushing scores given up in 16 games. They haven't been shutting folks down lately, either - these guys are sub-par to mediocre, depending on the week. With 5 TDs handed over in the past 3 games, they are on the downswing coming into the playoffs.

With home-field advantage at Addai and Rhodes' back, this contest looks like a good matchup against a suspect defensive front.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be an issue for either the Colts or the Chiefs.

IND Injuries: WR Ricky Proehl (Questionable), WR Reggie Wayne (Questionable), TE Dallas Clark (Questionable)
KC Injuries: DB Benny Sapp (Questionable)

New York Jets Rushing Offense at New England Patriots Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

During the first game between these teams, in week 2 of the regular season, New England prevailed by a count of 24-17. Kevan Barlow was the leading rusher that day, with 14/42/0 (the team had 24/51/0). Barlow has been inactive most of the second half of the season due to ongoing knee and thigh woes - however, he has played against the Patriots in both matchups. In the second game of the divisional rivalry, during week 10, The Jets prevailed 17-14. Barlow made a difference in that game, with 17/75/1 rushing and 1/7/0 receiving (the Jets posted 29/117/1 as a team).

Coming into the rubber match, the Jets' RB stable has produced 80/217/2 rushing and 14/159/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks. Leon Washington has 24/84/1 rushing and 6/125/0 receiving during that time span and played in all 3 games; Cedric Houston has posted 37/97/1 rushing and 1/2/0 receiving (vs. Minnesota in week 15 and Oakland in week 17); while Barlow has only played in week 16 (18/36/0 vs. Miami). The early word out of New York is that Barlow is out of this game due to his ongoing thigh injury (suffered vs. Miami in week 16), so the team is going to go with the tandem of Washington (15/53/1 rushing and 2/17/0 receiving last week) and Houston (16/44/0 rushing last week) that helped the team defeat the Raiders 23-3 in the season finale.

The Patriots are ranked 5th in the NFL this season vs. opposing rushers, averaging 94.2 yards allowed per game (with 11 rushing scores given up to date). Last week vs. Tennessee, they handed over 25/135/1 rushing to the Titans; the Jags posted 22/144/2 during week 16; and Houston managed 22/105/1 rushing 3 weeks ago. Teams have been hard pressed to do anything against the Patriots' pass defense, but their rush defense has not been so formidable in recent weeks, as you can see.

Washington and Houston aren't world-beating backs, but as a tandem they can be effective. This week, they have a good matchup to work with while facing the suspect New England defensive front.

Weather: Gillette Stadium expects an unseasonably warm high of 50F on Sunday, with a low of 37F and a 10% chance for precipitation - that's pretty nice weather for Foxboro, MA in early January. Unless the wind becomes gusty, conditions shouldn't be an issue for either team during the game.

NYJ Injuries: QB Chad Pennington (Probable), RB Cedric Houston (Probable), RB B.J. Askew (Questionable), RB Kevan Barlow (Questionable), RB James Hodgins (Questionable), WR Brad Smith (Probable), WR Laveranues Coles (Questionable)
NE Injuries: DL Richard Seymour (Probable), DL Vince Wilfork (Questionable), LB Mike Vrabel (Probable), DB Ellis Hobbs (Probable), DB Chad Scott (Questionable), DB Rodney Harrison (Out)

Seattle Seahawks Rushing Offense vs Dallas Cowboys Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

These teams did not play during the 2006 regular season. The last time they faced off was week 7 of 2005, when Seattle battled to a last-minute 13-10 victory over the Cowboys. A lot has changed for both teams since late October of 2005, though - recent history won't tell us much about this playoff matchup.

Shaun Alexander capped his 2006 season with 4 TDs in the final 3 games (at least one score in each game), compiling 82/305/4 rushing and 3/16/0 receiving during that span of time. He posted 28/92/1 rushing and 2/14/0 receiving vs. Tampa Bay in week 17 - he ended the season looking like the fantasy RB that everyone who drafted him hoped to have in the lineup all season long. Maurice Morris chipped in with 10/39/0 rushing and 1/8/0 receiving vs. Tampa in week 17. Coming into the playoffs, the Seahawk's rushing attack is going full bore.

The Cowboys' rush D has been pretty porous to close the season, allowing 25/85/0 to the Lions' backup RBs in week 17 (Aveion Cason and Arlen Harris could barely muster 50 yards combined in the weeks prior) - they handed over 42/204/1 to Philly in week 16 and 27/127/0 to the Falcons during week 15. Dallas gave up 90 total points in the final 3 weeks of the season, and was lucky to escape with 1 win in that span of time. They don't look like a top 10 rush D of late (they ranked 10th in the NFL at the close of regular season averaging 103.7 rushing yards allowed per game, with 12 rushing TDs handed over in 16 games).

Alexander has surged to close the season, while Dallas' defense has stumbled - this looks like a good matchup for Alexander and the Seahawks.

Weather: The weather service predicts a high of 45F with a low of 39F and a 30% chance for precipitation at Qwest Field on Saturday. Given that precipitation at this time of year could mean rain, sleet, snow or some mix of all three, footing, ball-handling and visibility could all become issues for Cowboys and Seahawks alike, if a storm blows in around game-time.

SEA Injuries: WR Nate Burleson (Probable), WR Darrell Jackson (Questionable), WR D.J. Hackett (Questionable)
DAL Injuries: none

Dallas Cowboys Rushing Offense at Seattle Seahawks Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Since the week 15 victory over Atlanta, the Dallas RB stable has struggled to make much happen. Marion Barber III posted 11/69/2 rushing and 4/29/0 receiving vs. Atlanta, but scraped up 13/18/1 rushing and 5/23/0 receiving during the final 2 games of the season. Julius Jones has been awful all three weeks, with 13/26/0 rushing vs. Atlanta; 10/38/0 rushing and 1/10/0 receiving vs. Philly; and 10/27/0 rushing vs. Detroit in week 17. Neither back looks very appealing coming into this Wild Card round matchup in Seattle, although Barber III is the guy around the goal-line (assuming that Dallas gets into a goal-line situation or two).

Seattle hasn't been too stellar vs. opposing running backs in recent weeks - during week 15, Frank Gore and the 49ers posted 38/288/1 against Seattle. San Diego ripped them for 33/168/0 in week 16, and even the weak Tampa Bay unit managed 21/110/0 - that's better than 5 yards per carry allowed in every week over the final 3 games of regular season. Seattle averaged 126.8 rushing yards allowed per game last year (22nd in the NFL), with 12 rushing scores surrendered in 16 games, but they have been much softer of late.

Neither of these teams is playing well in the rushing phase of the game - this looks like a neutral matchup between struggling units to us.

DAL Injuries: none
SEA Injuries: DL Robert Bernard (Probable), LB Leroy Hill (Questionable), DB Marcus Trufant (Doubtful)

New England Patriots Rushing Offense vs New York Jets Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

During the first game between these teams, in week 2 of the regular season, New England prevailed by a count of 24-17. They were up 24-0 at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and managed to stave off a furious New York comeback to prevail. Corey Dillon (20/80/1 rushing) and Laurence Maroney (16/65/1 rushing) both found the end-zone during the first contest, establishing a successful rushing tandem that enjoyed great success this year (199/812/13 rushing and 15/147/0 receiving for Dillon; 175/745/6 rushing and 22/194/1 receiving for Maroney this year).

In the second game of the divisional rivalry, during week 10, The Jets prevailed 17-14. Dillon (11/98/0 rushing and 1/5/0 receiving) and Maroney (12/37/0) helped the Patriots to a healthy 26/145/0 on the ground vs. New York, but couldn't find the end-zone in the second game.

In the weeks leading up to this 3rd grudge match, Maroney missed weeks 14 and 15 due to injury, but returned to score in both of the final 2 games (7/48/1 rushing with 2/10/0 vs. Jacksonville; 13/73/1 rushing and 2/-4/0 receiving vs. Tennessee). Dillon had 42/168/3 rushing and 7/79/0 receiving over the final 3 weeks of regular season - both backs have been productive for the Patriots during their current 3 game win streak.

The Jets have won 3 in a row themselves, holding the Raiders to 22/88/0 rushing in week 17; allowing 24/124/0 rushing to the Dolphins in week 16; and limiting the Vikings to 15/62/0. Over the course of the regular season, the team ranked 24th in the NFL vs. the rush, giving up 130.3 rushing yards per game, with 14 rushing scores surrendered - but they have been much more stubborn in the closing weeks of regular season.

Dillon and Maroney have enjoyed a reasonable amount of success against the Jets this year, but New York has taken their game to a new level coming into the playoffs. This looks like a neutral matchup to us, with neither team enjoying a clear edge over the other.

NE Injuries: QB Tom Brady (Probable), RB Kevin Faulk (Questionable), WR Brandon Childress (Questionable), TE Ben Watson (Questionable)
NYJ Injuries: DL Dewayne Robertson (Questionable), LB Matt Chatham (Probable), LB Bryan Thomas (Probable), DB David Barrett (Questionable), DB Andre Dyson (Questionable), DB Kerry Rhodes (Questionable)

New York Giants Rushing Offense at Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

During the first game of 2006 between these divisional foes (week 2), the Giants were listless through 3 quarters, but then they stormed back from a 17 point deficit in the 4th quarter and captured a "W" during the overtime period, 30-24. Neither Tiki Barber (21/51/0 rushing) or Brandon Jacobs (5/35/0) could get much going on the ground, although Barber added 7/57/0 receiving to post 100+ yards of total offense during the game.

The story was different during week 15, with the Eagles throwing down a late surge in the 4th quarter to squash New York 36-22. In that contest, although the team did not get above 100 yards rushing (22/88/2), both Barber (19/75/1 rushing with 5/29/0 receiving) and Jacobs (3/13/1 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving) were able to find the end-zone.

Each time he has played the Eagles this year, Barber has posted over 100 yards of combined offense, and he found the end-zone once. Jacobs has been valuable as a change of pace back against Philly during 2006-7.

The Eagles followed up their performance against the Giants in week 15 by shutting down the Cowboy's RBs in week 16 (10/38/0 rushing for Julius Jones, 6/3/0 rushing for Marion Barber III, and 19/83/0 for the Cowboys as a team). To close the season, their backups held Atlanta to 17 points in a victory (but allowed 34/159/0 to the Falcons on the ground). When the first team has been on the field, the Eagles' D has been stout in this phase of the game. They are playing much tougher rush D to close the season than earlier this year - they ended up ranking 26th in the NFL allowing an average of 136.4 rushing yards per game with 12 rushing scores given up.

Considering the intensity of the Eagles recently, we think this looks like a neutral matchup for Barber and company - Barber was outstanding last week against the Redskins, but has looked mortal when playing the Eagles this season - and Philly is playing tough D coming into this game.

NYG Injuries: TE Jeremy Shockey (Questionable)
PHI Injuries: DL Darwin Walker (Probable), DL Juqua Thomas (Questionable), LB Matthew McCoy (Probable), DB Michael Lewis (Probable), DB William James (Probable)

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