Week 21 Passing Matchups

[CHI] [IND]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Chicago Bears Passing Offense vs Indianapolis Colts Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Much has been made of Rex Grossman's up and down regular season, with 7 games over 100.0 and 5 games under 40.0. But let's look at his performance during the playoffs: Vs. New Orleans, Grossman got off to an unimpressive start, but ended the day with 11/26 for 144 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions (a 73.2 QB rating). In the game vs. Seattle, he tossed 21/38 for 282 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception (a 76.9 rating). It appears that Grossman is playing fundamentally sound football - he hasn't been stellar, but he's avoided making a lot of mistakes and is playing within the Bears' system (run the ball; play stout defense; take advantage of the short fields that the defense routinely provides and take your shots deep every once in a while). In short, Grossman is playing well enough for his team to notch a "W" at the end of the day. The Bears blasted the Saints 39-14 despite his pedestrian numbers during the conference championship.

Bernard Berrian has been the biggest playmaker for Grossman during the playoff run, with 10/190/2 during the contests (5/105/1 vs. Seattle and 5/85/1 vs. New Orleans). Desmond Clark pulled in a big 30 yard reception last week and was wide open in the end-zone vs. New Orleans (Grossman missed him with a high pass). Muhsin Muhammad has been pretty quiet of late, with 4/58/0 during the playoffs and only 1/20/0 vs. New Orleans - although, with only 144 yards passing total during the conference championships, there weren't a lot of yards to share out after Berrian's 5/85/1. The Bears' receiving corps is doing well enough to help their team qualify for a trip to Miami.

The Colts only allowed only 3 third down conversions during their first 2 playoff games. Steve McNair tossed 18/29 for 173 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions vs. the Colts during the divisional round (he was sacked twice), while Kansas City's Trent Green was thoroughly blasted (14/24 for 107 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions, with 4 sacks surrendered). Then the Patriots rolled into town and gave the Colts a knock-down, drag-out fight (a razor-thin 38-34 margin of victory for Indy). Tom Brady was his usual efficient self, hitting 21/34 for 232 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception vs. Indianapolis - he only took 1 sack during the game. The Patriots could only manage 5-14 3rd down conversions, but they converted 2 of 2 4th-down attempts - there were a lot of big plays on both sides of the contest. Overall, the Colts' pass defense has played well during the post-season, but they were taken to the edge of their abilities by Brady and the Patriots during the conference championship.

Grossman has been steady but not outstanding during the playoffs, while the Colts' defense has been playing at the top of their game lately. This looks like a tough matchup for the mediocre Chicago attack.

Weather: The forecast for Dolphin Stadium calls for a high of 78F with a low of 66F and a 20% chance for rain on Sunday. If the rain stays away, it should be a great evening to play for the NFL championship - weather shouldn't be a major factor in this game.

The official NFL injury report will not be available until after our deadline to post the week 21 matchups. Please refer to the week 21 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense at Chicago Bears Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

"People are already asking me, 'How are you going to feel?'" Peyton Manning stated earlier this week. "I don't know the answer to that."

"I don't think Peyton is really gonna change with the fact that this is the Super Bowl," head coach Tony Dungy commented. "Every game is the Super Bowl to him. We played a mock game in preseason and that's a Super Bowl to him."

All indications out of the Colts' camp are that Manning is calm and focused on the coming championship game. He showed resilience during the conference championship contest, when the Colts fell to a 21-3 deficit during the second quarter (due in part to a Manning interception returned for a score by Asante Samuel) before rallying for a 38-34 victory. In years past, Manning melted down during the playoffs with a cascade of errors once his confidence was rattled and the Colts were playing from behind - that has not happened during the run to Super Bowl XLI. He seems to have found a higher level of confidence in himself and his team mates.

Anyway, when the dust settled on the AFC Championship game, Manning had tossed 27/47 for 349 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception (adding 2/0/1 rushing to his totals). Dallas Clark continued his strong playoff presence, with 6/137/0 (it was the second time in 3 playoff games that Clark crossed 100 yards receiving - he had 9/103/0 vs. Kansas City during the wild card round). Reggie Wayne pulled in 5 balls for 68 yards (again - he has snagged 5 catches in each playoff game), while Marvin Harrison handled 4/41/0. In all, 9 Colts grabbed passes, including DL/FB Dan Klecko, who scored (1/1/1). After the half-time adjustments vs. New England's defensive scheme, Manning made the key throws his team needed to prevail.

After an up and down regular season in the secondary, Chicago averaged 194.8 passing yards allowed per game (11th in the NFL), with 18 passing TDs surrendered over 16 games. The Bears tied for 8th in the NFL with 40 sacks last year (they generated 3 sacks vs. Seattle, and also posted 3 sacks vs. New Orleans in the conference championship game). During the divisional round of the NFC playoffs, the Bears held Matt Hasselbeck to 18/33 for 195 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception, helping the team to their 27-24 victory. Drew Brees tossed 27/49 for 354 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception in the losing effort during the conference championship game - the Saints played from behind the entire game, and only posted 12 rushes all day long. Keep in mind that Indianapolis' OL only allowed 15 sacks during regular season (New England managed 3 sacks during the conference championships, but Baltimore (60 regular season sacks) and K.C. could only come up with 1 in their post-season contests vs. Indianapolis), the best in the NFL - the Bears' sack masters Mark Anderson, Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown will have to battle hard if they are to get into Manning's face on Sunday night.

Chicago's pass defense is solid but not dominating, while Indianapolis brings one of the best passing attacks in the NFL to the table, but Manning has struggled at points during the post-season (during the first half vs. New England, most recently). On balance, this looks like a tough matchup for the Colts'.

Weather: The forecast for Dolphin Stadium calls for a high of 78F with a low of 66F and a 20% chance for rain on Sunday. If the rain stays away, it should be a great evening to play for the NFL championship - weather shouldn't be a major factor in this game.

The official NFL injury report will not be available until after our deadline to post the week 21 matchups. Please refer to the week 21 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.