Week 20 Passing Matchups

[CHI] [IND] [NE] [NO]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Chicago Bears Passing Offense vs New Orleans Saints Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

These teams last met during the post-Katrina "gypsy season" of 2005 on New Orleans' part - a lot has changed since week 9 of 2005, when the clubs played in Tiger Stadium. Normally, recent history is worth a glance but in this case too much has changed since 2005 - it's a brand new season for both clubs.

Rex Grossman managed a good performance last week, tossing 21/38 for 282 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception (with 1 crucial lost fumble). He played much better, but his game was far from perfect. Bernard Berrian continues to be his big play guy, with 5/105/1 receiving last week (including a long of 68 yards for a TD). Rashied Davis helped out with 4/84/0 while Muhsin Muhammad ranked third last weekend (3/38/0). If you are invested in the Chicago passing attack, Berrian looks like a solid starter during week 20.

New Orleans was 3rd in the NFL this year averaging 178.4 passing yards allowed per game, but they handed over 26 passing scores over 16 games. Jeff Garcia and company posted 15/30 for 240 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions last week when they faced the Saints. With 38 sacks, the Saints were tied for 12th in the NFL (they managed 1 sack last week). On balance, the Saints are fielding a mediocre secondary.

This is a neutral matchup for Grossman, who bounced back big last week after an awful season finale.

Weather: Soldier Field expects a high of 34F and a low of 28F on Sunday, with a 30% chance of rain/sleet/snow. If the sky opens up at gametime, footing, ball handling and visibility could all become problematic for both teams.

CHI Injuries: WR Mark Bradley (Questionable)
NO Injuries: DB Omar Stoutmire (Questionable)

New Orleans Saints Passing Offense at Chicago Bears Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

These teams last met during the post-Katrina "gypsy season" of 2005 on New Orleans' part - a lot has changed since week 9 of 2005, when the clubs played in Tiger Stadium. Aaron Brooks is gone, Drew Brees has joined the team, and Sean Payton is the head coach, to name only 3 of the many significant changes in New Orleans this past year. Recent history won't shed much light on this matchup.

Brees posted a season for the ages during 2006, with 356/554 for 4418 yards, 26 TDs and 11 interceptions. His QB rating was 96.2 during the past year (by comparison, Dan Marino compiled a 86.4 career rating, with only one season above 96 (the epic 1984 campaign, with 48 TDs and a rating of 108.9)). Last week, Brees delivered 20/32 for 243 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions vs. Philadelphia - in Joe Horns' absence, Billy Miller led the team with 4/64/0 receiving and Marques Colston was 2nd with 5/55/0. Deuce McAllister scored the TD with 4/20/1 to his credit.

As usual, the New Orleans offense was powerful last week.

The Bears held Matt Hasselbeck to 18/33 for 195 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception last week, en route to their 27-24 victory. It was not a dominating performance, but the rejuvenated Chicago secondary held it's own against the hard-charging Seahawks. CB Charles Tillman had 7 solo tackles and 9 total tackles during the game, illustrating his importance to the Bears' secondary. After a regular season performance that had it's ups and downs, Chicago averaged 194.8 passing yards allowed per game, with 18 passing TDs surrendered. The Bears tied for 8th in the NFL with 40 sacks last year (and generated 3 sacks vs. Seattle last week).

Chicago has bounced around from dominant to porous in this phase of the game, and comes into the matchup vs. New Orleans in the middle of the spectrum. This looks like a neutral matchup from where we sit.

Weather: Soldier Field expects a high of 34F and a low of 28F on Sunday, with a 30% chance of rain/sleet/snow. If the sky opens up at gametime, footing, ball handling and visibility could all become problematic for both teams.

NO Injuries: WR Joe Horn (Questionable), TE Mark Campbell (Questionable)
CHI Injuries: DL Adewale Ogunleye (Probable)

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense vs New England Patriots Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

The Colts and Patriots clashed back on November 5th, 2006 (week 9), and it was all said and done Indy prevailed 27-20. During that contest, the running backs struggled to make much happen (25/53/1 as a team), so the load landed squarely on Peyton Manning's shoulders. Manning responded with 20/36 for 326 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception (Marvin Harrison snagged 8/145/2 during the game to lead the team - Reggie Wayne was second with 6/90/0). It was only the 4th time over 14 contests that the Colts led by Manning walked away with a "W" in the win/loss column.

During the playoffs, Manning has been way off his usual pace, tossing only 1 TD vs. 5 interceptions (30/38 for 268 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions vs. Kansas City, followed by 15/30 for 170 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions against the Ravens). The Colts needed 5 field goals to walk away from Baltimore with a victory - with Manning struggling, neither Harrison (6/93/0 during the last 2 games) or Wayne (10/87/1) have done much for fantasy teams, although Dallas Clark has been pretty productive playing in the slot receiver role (11/144/0). Indianapolis is winning games by playing stout defense right now - and doing it with unimpressive statistics from Manning and company.

Asante Samuel, Rosevelt Colvin (the interception was his work) and the other Patriots defenders made life hard for Philip Rivers last week (14/32 for 230 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception), and they combined to sack him 3 times. The Colts have handed over only 3 sacks during post-season, though, and they were best in the league last year handing over a mere 15 sacks during 16 games. New England was 12th in the NFL last year vs. opposing passers, with an average of 200.2 yards allowed per game, but they held their opponents to 10 passing scores all year long (and have allowed only 1 TD pass during the playoffs).

This will be a tough game for Manning and his receivers.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be a factor.

IND Injuries: WR Ricky Proehl (Questionable)
NE Injuries: DL Mike Wright (Questionable), DB Rodney Harrison (Doubtful)

New England Patriots Passing Offense at Indianapolis Colts Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

"I said to Tedy (Bruschi), 'Man, that was not easy.' He says to me, 'They never are buddy, they never are,'" Brady recounted after the victory over San Diego last week.

As every football fan on the planet knows, Tom Brady is the ultimate big game QB. His stats don't make observers go "wow" most of the time, but when a game hangs in the balance, Brady makes the crucial plays. Last week he overcame 3 interceptions to lead his team to victory (27/51 for 280 yards, 2 TDs and 3 interceptions). As we pointed out last week, his favorite receivers are the "new" arrivals - Jabar Gaffney (released from the cattle pen in Houston) posted 10/103/1 last week (following up a 8/104/0 performance in the wild card round), while Charger cast-off Reche Caldwell pulled in 7/80/1 last week after a 5/50/0 showing in the wild card round. As usual, Brady spread the ball around, hitting TE's Daniel Graham (2/38/0) and Ben Watson (1/9/0) as well as the sure-handed WR/DB Troy Brown (5/39/0). Brady made some mistakes last week, but he overcame them.

The Colts' defense has been playing inspired football since the playoffs commenced. They have shaved almost 6 minutes off of their opponent's time of possession (to just 24:37 on average during the playoffs). They have only allowed 3 third down conversions during 2 playoff games. Much has been made of the return of S Bob Sanders (10 tackles last week, 8 solo), but the bottom line here is the Colts' entire defensive team has risen to the challenge of the post-season. Steve McNair tossed 18/29 for 173 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions vs. the Colts last week (he was sacked twice).

In the RCA Dome, Tom Brady will be challenged by the Colt's 2nd ranked pass D (Indy allowed an average of 159.3 passing yards per game during the regular season) and their vocal 12th man.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be a factor.

NE Injuries: QB Tom Brady (Probable), WR Troy Brown (Questionable)
IND Injuries: LB Cato June (Questionable), DB Nick Harper (Questionable), DB Bob Sanders (Questionable)