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Week 19 Passing Matchupsby Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com[BAL] [CHI] [IND] [NE] [NO] [PHI] [SD] [SEA]
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup. Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week. Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.
Chicago Bears Passing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Passing Defense (Good Matchup) Back on October 1st, Rex Grossman and the Bears won a laugher over the Shaun Alexander-less Seahawks 37-6. Grossman was "on" that day, tossing 17/32 for 232 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. Over the final 6 weeks of regular season, Grossman see-sawed from awful to competent and back to awful again, playing games in weeks 12, 13, and 17 in which he tossed 0 TDs and 3 interceptions per contest - in week 17 vs. Green Bay he threw a horrendous 2/12 for 33 yards, 0 TDs and 3 interceptions for a 0.0 QB rating. Those bad games sandwiched a run of 3 strong games weeks 14-16 (62/103 for 736 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions). He's definitely cold coming into this matchup though, and there are rumors that he be hooked early if he tanks vs. Seattle. However, coach Smith denied these speculations strongly on Wednesday, saying "That may be the perception, but I don't know where it came from. It is not the reality at all. Just go with our track record. I keep hearing these things. It hasn't happened, so where does this come from?" Brian Griese saw some playing time in week 16 and 17 in relief of Grossman, and although he wasn't stellar (11/24 for 175 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions), Griese managed to do better than a 0.0 QB rating. Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian have seen the most action in the closing 3 weeks of regular season, with 10/176/0 for Muhammad and 12/93/1 to Berrian during those contests. Weather conditions for this game don't look optimum for passing as of midweek - owners of Bears and Seahawks will want to keep an eye on weather conditions in Chicago as the weekend approaches. Seattle limited the anemic Bucs to 16/27 for 185 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions last week; gave up 10/30 for 181 yards, but 2 TDs vs. 0 interceptions to Phillip Rivers in week 16, and gave up 14/25 for 162 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions to Alex Smith and the 49ers during week 15. Seattle tends to be stingy with passing yards but generous with TDs of late - however, Tim Rattay, Phillip Rivers and Alex Smith are not exactly piloting high-octane pass attacks. A continuing concern for Seattle coming into this second playoff contest is their battered secondary. Marcus Trufant is highly unlikely to play due to a high ankle sprain. Jimmy Williams suffered a knee injury week 17 and has joined Kelly Herndon on IR - the team signed free agents S John Howell and CB Pete Hunter to try and plug the holes in the secondary heading into the wild card game, but Howell reinjured the hamstring that kept him sidelined in 2005 and is now once again done playing football. The patchwork unit did fairly well against Tony Romo, holding him to 17/29 for 189 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions - but they are paper thin at CB and may have to sign another free agent this week to replace Howell. Grossman struggled horribly against the Green Bay to close regular season, and hasn't been consistent over the final 6 weeks of the year. Seattle managed to survive the Cowboys last week, but their secondary is hampered by injury and may have to contend with the Illinois winter this week. On balance, this looks like a good matchup for Grossman - but given probable weather conditions don't expect an explosive passing performance and you won't be disappointed. Weather: The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 33F and a low of 22F on Sunday, with a 60% chance for precipitation. At this time of year, precipitation is likely to be sleet/snow, and winds can be very gusty in Chicago during January. In wintry conditions, ball handling, footing, and visibility may suffer, while wind gusts can pile on to make every phase of the game more tricky. Owners of Bears or Seahawks will want to check a shorter-term forecast before setting their playoff lineups this week.
CHI Injuries: RB Jason McKie (Questionable)
New Orleans Saints Passing Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense (Good Matchup) Drew Brees tore up the Eagles' pass D (27/37 for 275 yards, 3 TDs and 2 interceptions) on the way to a 27-24 triumph back in week 6, relying on wily veteran Joe Horn (6/110/2) and rookie Marques Colston (4/40/1) to put the ball into the end-zone. Since that contest, Colston has become the go-to guy in New Orleans, with 70/1038/8 despite missing 2 games due to injury - Horn has struggled to play during the final 1/4 of the season due to an ongoing groin issue. However, the word this week is that Horn is feeling much better than he has for several weeks and expects to play vs. the Eagles (although he won't quite be back to 100%). However, Horn suffered a setback after practicing on Monday and missed large chunks of Tuesday's practice. "I was disappointed he wasn't able to practice," HC Sean Payton said. "I think he's doing everything he can to get ready." The Saints worked out Monday and Horn participated then. "Today there was some soreness that came back," Payton said. "There's still enough soreness that keeps him from going full speed." Considering the fits Horn gave the Eagles last time around the block, the Saints hope he'll be feeling up to getting back in the game come the weekend - he's considered questionable as of Wednesday. New Orleans' pass offense has been highly productive all year long, with 356/554 for 4418 yards, 26 TDs and 11 interceptions to Brees credit - he's only been sacked 18 times all year (Philly did not sack him in their first contest, either). The Eagles bring a lot of pass pressure to bear on their opponents (tied for 8th in the NFL with 40 sacks this season), and their secondary goes for the ball aggressively (19 interceptions this past season). However, the team took a blow last week when starting CB Lito Sheppard dislocated his right elbow during the game and he's out for this contest for sure. Roderick Hood figures to step into the lineup for Philly, but they have thinned at the CB position due to losing Sheppard. Despite the injury woes, Philly got past the Giants 23-20, but they gave up 2 TDs to Eli Manning (16/27 for 161 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception) while generating only 1 sack. The Eagles limited Tony Romo 14/29 for 142 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in week 16 (with 3 sacks), and then saw their backups contain Michael Vick and Matt Schaub in week 17 (23/35 for 219 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception) en route to a 24-17 victory week 17 (after the Cowboys lost to Detroit the Eagles pulled most of their starters). As you can see, there are points to be had against the Eagles in this phase of the game (5 passing TDs given up over the last 3 weeks). Brees played pretty well vs. the Eagles earlier this year, and his club benefits from a couple of weeks' rest for the starters - meanwhile, the Eagles' pass D has suffered from injury attrition and has been fairly generous with TDs of late. This looks like a good matchup for Brees and company, although Horn owners will want to monitor his practice participation/injury status as the week goes along.
Weather: Inside the Louisiana Superdome, weather won't be an issue for either team.
NO Injuries: WR Joe Horn (Questionable)
Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense at New Orleans Saints Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup) During the initial meeting between these teams (a 27-24 Saints victory), Donovan McNabb was still piloting the Eagles' offense. This week will be Jeff Garcia's first appearance vs. the Saints in an Eagles' uniform. Garcia did just enough to get his team past the Giants last week, with 17/31 for 153 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions, relying on Reggie Brown (7/73/0) and Donte Stallworth (3/41/1) to handle the vast majority of his passing yards (in all 8 Eagles caught at least one pass). It's worth noting that Brown was a huge thorn in New Orleans' side back in week 6, running for a TD (1/15/1) and hauling in 6/121/1 receiving. He's got some momentum at his back coming into this rematch (again in the Superdome), with 5 games of 70-something yards receiving out of his last 7 contests (Brown was rested week 17 along with the other Philly starters). Garcia has thrown 1 TD per contest in 3 out of the last 4 games (the only game he did not do so was his very brief week 17 appearance before the starters went to the bench). The Saints' backups played most of the season finale vs. the Panthers, resulting in 23/27 for 207 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions being handed over to Carolina. However, they frustrated the Giants in week 16, allowing only 9/25 for 74 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception to Eli Manning. In week 15, the Saints handed over 13/28 for 204 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions to Jason Campbell. Over the course of the season, New Orleans averaged 178.4 passing yards allowed per game (3rd in the NFL), but they allowed 26 passing TDs while generating 38 sacks and 11 interceptions. They were a respectable, but not elite, pass defense, and closed regular season playing at that tempo. Garcia and company will have to contend with a vigorous 12th man in the Superdome this week, which should make communication difficult - against the average Saints' unit, this is a neutral matchup for Garcia and company.
Weather: Inside the Louisiana Superdome, weather won't be an issue for either team.
PHI Injuries: RB Brian Westbrook (Probable), RB Ryan Moats (Probable), RB Thomas Tapeh (Questionable)
Seattle Seahawks Passing Offense at Chicago Bears Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup) Matt Hasselbeck had a miserable outing the first time he played Chicago this year, taking 5 sacks from the Bears (2 from Tommie Harris, who is now on IR due to a torn left hamstring) and slinging 2 interceptions to Ricky Manning Jr (16/35 for 196 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions). Last week, during the wild-card playoff game vs. Dallas, Hasselbeck managed 18/36 for 240 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions (0 sacks) - he was deprived of Darrell Jackson, whose injured toe flared up midway during the game, and also saw D.J. Hackett go down with an ankle injury. However, the mercurial Jerramy Stevens showed up in a big way for Seattle last week, hauling in 5/77/2 to help power Seattle to their last-second 21-20 victory. Bobby Engram led the team with 4/88/0, while Deion Branch also snagged 4 balls for 48 yards. Stevens has snagged 11/155/2 over the past 3 weeks, with more catches and yards in each game progressively during that time span (2/24/0; 4/54/0; 5/77/2) - he seems to be peaking just in time for the playoffs. The early word on Jackson is that he'll try to play again this week, but he won't be 100% (and that toe flared up last week while Jackson caught 0 passes). Brett Favre went out on top against the Bears in week 17, posting 21/42 for 285 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the course of a 26-7 Green Bay victory. Detroit's Jon Kitna did even better against Chicago in week 16, posting 27/45 for 283 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions, while Tim Rattay and the Buccaneers tossed 25/46 for 305 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception against Chicago in week 15. As many have pointed out, the Chicago pass defense melted down in the closing weeks of regular season. They are far from the unit that built a season average of 194.8 passing yards allowed per game (11th in the NFL) coming into the playoffs. Part of the problem is due to injury - pass rushing DT Tommie Harris is on IR with a torn hamstring, as is S Mike Brown. However, other key members of the secondary - CB Charles Tillman (back spasms), S Todd Johnson (sprained ankle) and CB Nathan Vasher (pulled hamstring) - all of whom missed time in December due to their injuries - practiced together on January 9th and look good to go for this playoff game. "We're getting a healthy group back," coach Lovie Smith said. "We'll put the best group we possibly could this time of the year on the field Sunday. So we like our chances." If the secondary can return to their early-season form, the Bears will be much tougher on Seattle than they were their previous 3 opponents. Chicago has battled through injury woes in December, as have the Seahawks. Keep an eye on the injury reports as the week goes along to see if Jackson and Hackett are upgraded/practice, and the same goes for the Bears' defensive backs. Recent history suggests that this may be a good matchup for the Seahawks, but due to injury uncertainties and the bad weather forecast for the game, we think this is a neutral matchup with neither team holding a clear edge as of mid-week. Weather: The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 33F and a low of 22F on Sunday, with a 60% chance for precipitation. At this time of year, precipitation is likely to be sleet/snow, and winds can be very gusty in Chicago during January. In wintry conditions, ball handling, footing, and visibility may suffer, while wind gusts can pile on to make every phase of the game more tricky. Owners of Bears or Seahawks will want to check a shorter-term forecast before setting their playoff lineups this week.
SEA Injuries: WR Darrell Jackson (Questionable), WR D.J. Hackett (Doubtful)
Baltimore Ravens Passing Offense vs Indianapolis Colts Passing Defense (Tough Matchup) The last time these teams faced off was week 1 of 2005 - since then, Steve McNair has replaced Kyle Boller/Anthony Wright as the starting QB for Baltimore, and Jamal Lewis has had another year to rehab from his 2004 ankle injury/incarceration. The Ravens have improved their offense markedly in the year and a half since they last saw Indianapolis (Boller and Wright combined for 34/54 for 324 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions during that September 11th, 2005 contest). Over the regular season, Steve McNair has been a steady hand controlling the Baltimore offense - he threw 295/468 for 3050 yards, 16 TDs and 12 interceptions (45/119/1 rushing) to rank 27th at his position in fantasy points per game. He played pretty well to close the season (he was sidelined for most of the game vs. Cleveland due to getting his hand stepped on), with a 65% or better completion percentage in 3 of the final 4 games, with 4 TDs vs. 3 interceptions (65/93 for 755 yards, 4 TDs and 3 interceptions during that time span). Todd Heap (73/765/6 during regular season), Derrick Mason (68/750/2), and Mark Clayton (67/939/5) are his main targets week in and week out, accounting for 13 of the 16 TD passes McNair threw this past year. Indy's pass D handed over 18/36 for 210 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception to Cleo Lemon in the season finale; they gave up 16/23 for 163 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions to David Carr in week 16; and Indy allowed 14/28 for 176 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions to Carson Palmer 4 weeks ago. As you can see, most teams throw for under 200 yards when they play the Colts - the Chiefs were no exception last week, with Trent Green barely clearing 100 yards passing (14/24 for 107 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions thrown). The Colts enjoyed a 39:23 to 20:37 time of possession edge last week, as their D was routinely sending the Chiefs to the sidelines after 3 downs - K.C. had 7 first downs in the entire game and converted only 1 of 11 3rd down opportunities. The return of S Bob Sanders boosted the secondary - he looked like he's getting healthier last week, after battling an ongoing knee issue for much of regular season. The Ravens sport a respectable passing game, but nobody would call them high-flying. Meanwhile, the Colts' 2nd ranked pass D (averaging 159.3 yards allowed per game during regular season) have been playing up to their ranking in recent weeks, and absolutely dominated the Chiefs last week. This looks like a tough matchup for McNair and company, despite their home-field advantage. Weather: The forecast for M and T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 57F with a 40% chance for rain. If the precipitation comes down thickly at game time, footing, ball handling and visibility could all become issues for both teams.
BAL Injuries: TE Quinn Sypniewski (Questionable)
Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense at Baltimore Ravens Passing Defense (Tough Matchup) Peyton Manning led his team to 21/36 for 254 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions the last time he faced the Ravens (on September 11th, 2005). During that game, Brandon Stokley (on IR for this playoff contest) led the team with 7/83/0, while Marvin Harrison and Ben Utecht handled the TD passes from Manning. After playing 3 consecutive solid games to close the 2006 regular season, Manning struggled mightily in the playoff contest vs. Kansas City, tossing 3 interceptions before finally hooking up with Reggie Wayne for a TD (5/36/1). Manning looked especially out of synch with Marvin Harrison, throwing to defenders in the spot he expected Harrison to run to on routes - they were not on the same page for much of the game. Dallas Clark did an excellent job for the Colts, though, splitting out in the slot wide receiver position for much of the contest and snagging 9/103/0 during the game to lead the team. In the end, the Colts' offense put up enough points to sink K.C. 23-8. The Ravens closed the season with aggressive, ball-hawking pass D (8 interceptions generated over the final 4 games). They gave up 20/35 for 237 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in the season finale vs. J.P. Losman/Buffalo; 15/31 for 156 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions to Ben Roethlisberger and 4/11 for 49 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptons to Charlie Batch during week 16; 23/32 for 223 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions were thrown by Derek Anderson vs. Baltimore in week 15; and Baltimore allowed 15/27 for 178 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions for Trent Green during week 14. Baltimore has lived up to their season average of 188.2 net passing yards allowed per game (6th in the NFL) in the drive to the playoffs, as you can see. They were 2nd in the league with 60 QB sacks this past year - the Ravens love to pressure the opposing QB. Manning had trouble protecting the ball last week, something that will lead to disaster if he repeatedly misfires again this week while facing Ed Reed, Chris McAlister and the Ravens' other pass defenders. Manning doesn't get hit in the backfield often (only 15 sacks were allowed by the Colts during regular season, best in the league), but in M and T Bank Stadium he'll definitely feel the heat from the ferocious Baltimore pass rush - we think this game will be a very tough matchup for the Colts. Weather: The forecast for M and T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 57F with a 40% chance for rain. If the precipitation comes down thickly at game time, footing, ball handling and visibility could all become issues for both teams.
IND Injuries: RB Joseph Addai (Questionable), WR Ricky Proehl (Questionable)
New England Patriots Passing Offense at San Diego Chargers Passing Defense (Tough Matchup) Tom Brady played a respectable game the last time he saw the Chargers (week 4, 2005), tossing 19/32 for 224 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception, but it wasn't enough as San Diego cruised to a 41-17 victory. The Patriots have juggled their receiving corps significantly since that game, with David Givens and Deion Branch departing for other challenges and the addition of Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell to New England's roster. Last week, the new guys led New England's charge at the Jets, with 8/104/0 receiving for Gaffney and 5/50/0 for Caldwell - Kevin Faulk (1/7/1) and Daniel Graham (1/1/1) were the recipients of Brady's TD passes during the game. Brady threw for 22/34 for 212 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions - it was just another day at the office for him, as he connected with 7 total receivers and was sacked just once by the Jets. In his last 3 games, Brady has thrown at least 1 TD per contest, and totaled 249, 225, and 212 yards passing, with 0 interceptions during that span of time. He's playing at his usual high level coming into this divisional playoff contest. Kurt Warner and the Cardinals racked up 22/32 for 356 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions vs. the Chargers in the regular season finale (1 sack). During week 16, San Diego frustrated Matt Hasselbeck (17/37 for 189 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions) while sacking him 6 times. Trent Green could only muster 23/41 for 151 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception in week 15, while being sacked 6 times. This season, the Chargers were #1 in the NFL with 61 sacks (Shawne Merriman posted 17 sacks despite missing 4 games on suspension). New England was in the middle of the NFL pack with 29 sacks allowed this season - they haven't been extremely vulnerable to pass pressure, but their line isn't as stingy with sacks as the Colts, either. Over the course of regular season, the Chargers ranked 13th in the league vs. the pass, averaging 200.8 yards allowed per game, with 19 passing TDs given away. They have an above average, but not elite, unit on balance. In Qualcomm Stadium, the Patriots will have a lot of crowd noise to contend with, and Tom Brady will face intense pass rush for much of the game - this looks like a tough matchup for the Patriots from where we sit. Weather: The Chargers and Patriots can expect a high of 61F and a low of 40F with a 10% chance of rain at Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday - weather conditions shouldn't be a huge factor for either team.
NE Injuries: QB Tom Brady (Probable), RB Heath Evans (Questionable), WR Brandon Childress (Questionable), TE Ben Watson (Questionable)
San Diego Chargers Passing Offense vs New England Patriots Passing Defense (Tough Matchup) Drew Brees was running the Chargers' offense the last time these teams faced off (week 4, 2005) - this playoff game will be Philip Rivers' first chance to see a Bill Belichick defense from the vantage point behind center. Rivers sagged somewhat to close the regular season, with a poor effort vs. Kansas City (8/23 for 97 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions), followed by 10/30 for 181 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. Seattle and 19/24 for 231 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception in the season finale vs. Arizona. He seemed to recover his form at the very end of the year, but one can't call Rivers hot coming into this divisional playoff game. Eric Parker led the team in receiving vs. Arizona, with 5/62/0, while Antonio Gates (4/56/1) and Vincent Jackson (3/28/1) handled the TD passes. The Patriots came into the wild card round with 10 sacks and 6 interceptions vs. 1 passing score given up over the final 3 weeks of regular season (New England surrendered only 10 passing scores all year, which was the best mark in the league (200.2 passing yards per game, 12th in the NFL this past season). They ended the game vs. the Jets with 3 sacks and 1 interception which was returned for a TD by Asante Samuel (who extended his outstanding regular-season play into the playoffs), while giving up 23/40 for 300 yards and 1 TD to Chad Pennington (the Jets were playing from behind throughout the second half of the game, and ended up losing 37-16). During the regular season finale, the Patriots gave up 15/36 for 227 yards, but 0 TDs and 2 interceptions to Vince Young and the Titans. During week 16, the Jags managed 17/33 for 195 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. David Carr crashed and burned to the tune of 16/28 for 127 yards, 0 TDs and 4 interceptions vs. the Patriots back in week 15 - teams just haven't been able to put up many points vs. New England this year. Rivers rebounded to close the regular season, but hasn't been at the top of his game in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the Patriots handed over a lot of yardage but only 1 TD to Pennington and company last week, and have been pretty stout in this phase of the game during recent weeks. On balance, we think this is a tough matchup for Rivers and company. Weather: The Chargers and Patriots can expect a high of 61F and a low of 40F with a 10% chance of rain at Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday - weather conditions shouldn't be a huge factor for either team.
SD Injuries: none
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