When it is this early in the season, it is hard to put much faith in the statistics from last week when setting your lineups. The sample size of 1 game is just way too small and there are likely quite a few fluke performances that would skew the numbers. So, what I decided to do was to look at some of the data from last year on the more subjective statistics like assisted tackles and passes defensed and try to come up with some general conclusions that can help you in setting your lineups each week. Unfortunately, I don't have the data ready to check on whether these trends hold up from year to year, but that will be a project for the offseason. There are some interesting findings here though and I'll let you decide how much influence they should have.

                  ASSISTED TACKLES
Team          Home                Away         Total
====================================================
PIT       177     69.7%        77     30.3%      254
GB        162     63.5%        93     36.5%      255
MIA       193     62.9%       114     37.1%      307
TEN       162     62.3%        98     37.7%      260
SD        133     62.1%        81     37.9%      214
NE        159     61.4%       100     38.6%      259
NYG       126     60.6%        82     39.4%      208
IND       134     57.8%        98     42.2%      232
CIN       138     57.7%       101     42.3%      239
BUF       180     57.5%       133     42.5%      313
SEA       117     57.4%        87     42.6%      204
TB        118     55.4%        95     44.6%      213
NO        113     54.3%        95     45.7%      208
SF        115     53.5%       100     46.5%      215
DEN        75     53.2%        66     46.8%      141
CLE       165     52.2%       151     47.8%      316
NYJ       159     51.8%       148     48.2%      307
DAL        86     51.5%        81     48.5%      167
HOU       138     51.5%       130     48.5%      268
DET       121     51.3%       115     48.7%      236
CAR        93     50.5%        91     49.5%      184
BAL        90     49.5%        92     50.5%      182
WAS        67     48.9%        70     51.1%      137
PHI        59     46.8%        67     53.2%      126
MIN        90     44.3%       113     55.7%      203
OAK        72     42.9%        96     57.1%      168
CHI        77     42.5%       104     57.5%      181
ARI        68     42.5%        92     57.5%      160
KC         54     40.3%        80     59.7%      134
JAX        55     32.2%       116     67.8%      171
STL        44     28.2%       112     71.8%      156
ATL        39     21.9%       139     78.1%      178
====================================================
Total    3579     52.7%      3217     47.3%     6796

This is the total number of assisted tackles for each team divided by home and away games. Then, I looked at the % of total assisted tackles awarded at home and sorted by that. You immediately notice that the stat keepers for Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Miami, Tennessee, San Diego, New England, and the Giants were all very generous with the assist numbers. Players from those teams got 60% or more of their total assists in home games. Not surprisingly, many of the best fantasy linebackers have come from these places in recent years. Players like James Farrior, Nick Barnett, Zach Thomas, Keith Bulluck, Donnie Edwards, Tedy Bruschi, and Antonio Pierce have all potentially benefited from this in the recent past. Meanwhile, stat keepers in Atlanta, St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Kansas City appeared to be much stingier than the rest as players from those teams wound up getting 40% or fewer of their total assists while playing in home games. Perhaps players like Keith Brooking, Pino Tinoisamoa, Mike Peterson, and Kavika Mitchell or Derrick Johnson could have been more productive fantasy players if they happened to play in a more favorable environment.

Also, to give you a better idea of the scope of these differences, each column includes the sum of assists awarded in 8 games. So, Atlanta only gave out an average of 5 assists per home game while Pittsburgh was giving out 22 per game on average. Those two teams were obviously the most extreme last year but that's a pretty big range.

There were similar discrepancies with passes defensed as well:

                   PASSES DEFENSED
Team          Home                Away         Total
====================================================
PHI        95     74.8%        32     25.2%      127
CHI        63     69.2%        28     30.8%       91
HOU        49     67.1%        24     32.9%       73
MIA        53     64.6%        29     35.4%       82
DET        45     64.3%        25     35.7%       70
SF         59     63.4%        34     36.6%       93
DEN        64     61.0%        41     39.0%      105
TEN        37     59.7%        25     40.3%       62
NYG        52     59.1%        36     40.9%       88
TB         46     58.2%        33     41.8%       79
STL        38     57.6%        28     42.4%       66
BAL        39     55.7%        31     44.3%       70
IND        39     54.9%        32     45.1%       71
NO         36     54.5%        30     45.5%       66
BUF        41     53.9%        35     46.1%       76
CLE        38     53.5%        33     46.5%       71
MIN        45     52.3%        41     47.7%       86
CIN        39     51.3%        37     48.7%       76
PIT        43     51.2%        41     48.8%       84
ARI        35     50.7%        34     49.3%       69
WAS        44     50.6%        43     49.4%       87
GB         33     47.1%        37     52.9%       70
NYJ        30     46.9%        34     53.1%       64
SD         43     45.7%        51     54.3%       94
KC         40     45.5%        48     54.5%       88
OAK        30     44.1%        38     55.9%       68
SEA        42     43.3%        55     56.7%       97
JAX        34     43.0%        45     57.0%       79
CAR        40     42.1%        55     57.9%       95
ATL        27     38.6%        43     61.4%       70
NE         26     38.2%        42     61.8%       68
DAL        30     37.0%        51     63.0%       81
====================================================
Total    1375     53.6%      1191     46.4%     2566

The stat keepers in Philadelphia really stand out as being incredibly generous with almost 75% of the passes defensed recorded by their players being awarded in home games. Chicago, Houston, Miami, Detroit, San Francisco, Denver, and Tennessee were also quite generous, resulting in the players from those teams getting credited with 1.5 times as many passes defensed in home games compared to road games. Meanwhile, players in Dallas, New England, and Atlanta seem to have a much harder time getting credited with a pass defense when playing at home than the rest of the league. The raw numbers here are much smaller than those for assisted tackles so these won't have a huge impact on fantasy value. But, it is something interesting to keep in mind and highlights the inherent subjectivity with these particular IDP stats.

For comparison purposes, here is the data for solo tackles, which are much less subjective:

                  SOLO TACKLES
Team          Home            Away             Total
====================================================
NE        376     57.5%       278     42.5%      654
IND       395     53.7%       340     46.3%      735
KC        354     53.6%       306     46.4%      660
STL       390     53.1%       344     46.9%      734
NYJ       395     51.4%       373     48.6%      768
BAL       346     51.1%       331     48.9%      677
TB        344     50.8%       333     49.2%      677
ATL       356     50.7%       346     49.3%      702
SD        355     50.6%       347     49.4%      702
HOU       375     50.5%       368     49.5%      743
NYG       362     50.2%       359     49.8%      721
CHI       366     50.2%       363     49.8%      729
CAR       335     50.1%       334     49.9%      669
ARI       333     50.0%       333     50.0%      666
CLE       368     49.7%       372     50.3%      740
MIN       345     49.7%       349     50.3%      694
SEA       373     49.6%       379     50.4%      752
JAX       343     49.5%       350     50.5%      693
NO        344     49.4%       352     50.6%      696
TEN       334     49.3%       344     50.7%      678
DET       336     49.1%       348     50.9%      684
WAS       317     49.1%       329     50.9%      646
GB        335     49.0%       348     51.0%      683
BUF       351     48.9%       367     51.1%      718
OAK       379     48.8%       397     51.2%      776
PIT       322     47.4%       358     52.6%      680
DEN       293     46.4%       338     53.6%      631
SF        337     45.9%       398     54.1%      735
CIN       286     45.5%       343     54.5%      629
PHI       330     45.1%       402     54.9%      732
DAL       265     43.2%       348     56.8%      613
MIA       291     42.5%       393     57.5%      684
====================================================
Total   11031     49.5%     11270     50.5%    22301

The stadium impact here seems to be much more subtle with no teams going above 60% or below 40% and the overall numbers showing up almost exactly at 50/50. One interesting thing to point out here is that Miami ranked dead last for solo tackles after ranking #3 in generosity for assisted tackles and #4 for passes defensed. That suggests that these differences may not be due to a stat keeper trying to pad the stats of the home players (as many would probably assume) but could simply reflect a difference in the standards being used to distinguish a solo from an assisted tackle.

The numbers up until this point looked at how each team did at home vs the road so the individual teams were the focus. Next, I wanted to break things down by stadium, so for each of the 32 stadiums (treating Giants and Jets separately here) I compared the combined stats from the home team Vs the road team (all 8 road teams are grouped together as one). This should help tell us whether the stat keepers are biased towards the home team or if they are simply more generous with assisted tackles for both the home and away teams.

                  ASSISTED TACKLES
Stadium     Home              Road        Total   P/Game
========================================================
MIA      193    50.0%      193    50.0%    386     24.1
PIT      177    49.3%      182    50.7%    359     22.4
TEN      162    49.1%      168    50.9%    330     20.6
BUF      180    54.7%      149    45.3%    329     20.6
NE       159    50.0%      159    50.0%    318     19.9
CLE      165    54.8%      136    45.2%    301     18.8
GB       162    56.1%      127    43.9%    289     18.1
HOU      138    50.0%      138    50.0%    276     17.3
NYJ      159    58.2%      114    41.8%    273     17.1
CIN      138    51.5%      130    48.5%    268     16.8
IND      134    50.0%      134    50.0%    268     16.8
NYG      126    50.0%      126    50.0%    252     15.8
DET      121    51.9%      112    48.1%    233     14.6
BAL       90    39.0%      141    61.0%    231     14.4
SEA      117    51.3%      111    48.7%    228     14.3
NO       113    50.0%      113    50.0%    226     14.1
SD       133    59.4%       91    40.6%    224     14.0
SF       115    52.8%      103    47.2%    218     13.6
TB       118    56.2%       92    43.8%    210     13.1
CAR       93    49.2%       96    50.8%    189     11.8
MIN       90    50.0%       90    50.0%    180     11.3
DEN       75    42.1%      103    57.9%    178     11.1
ARI       68    41.2%       97    58.8%    165     10.3
DAL       86    55.1%       70    44.9%    156      9.8
WAS       67    45.6%       80    54.4%    147      9.2
OAK       72    53.7%       62    46.3%    134      8.4
CHI       77    58.3%       55    41.7%    132      8.3
PHI       59    49.2%       61    50.8%    120      7.5
JAX       55    50.0%       55    50.0%    110      6.9
KC        54    50.0%       54    50.0%    108      6.8
STL       44    55.7%       35    44.3%     79      4.9
ATL       39    52.0%       36    48.0%     75      4.7
========================================================
Total   3579    51.2%     3413    48.8%   6992    437.0

Pretty huge difference between the stingy teams like Atlanta and St. Louis who gave out fewer than 5 assists per game to both teams combined and teams like Miami and Pittsburgh who gave out over 4 times more assists per game. Also, none of the stadiums appear to have a huge home field advantage where the home team gets many more assists awarded than the road teams, but there are a handful of teams that appear to be headed that direction (NYJ, SD, CHI, GB, TB). Baltimore, Denver, and Arizona look like they may actually have a slight bias against the home team as they awarded only about 40% of the total assisted tackles to home players. These differences could obviously also be explained by differences in the number of plays so further analysis is needed to see if they still hold after you control for the number of plays.

Same table for passes defensed:

                   PASSES DEFENSED
Stadium     Home              Road        Total   P/Game
========================================================
PHI       95    47.3%      106    52.7%    201     12.6
MIA       53    47.3%       59    52.7%    112      7.0
SF        59    60.8%       38    39.2%     97      6.1
DEN       64    68.1%       30    31.9%     94      5.9
ARI       35    37.6%       58    62.4%     93      5.8
NYG       52    56.5%       40    43.5%     92      5.8
CHI       63    69.2%       28    30.8%     91      5.7
HOU       49    55.1%       40    44.9%     89      5.6
TB        46    52.3%       42    47.7%     88      5.5
DET       45    51.7%       42    48.3%     87      5.4
NO        36    42.4%       49    57.6%     85      5.3
TEN       37    45.7%       44    54.3%     81      5.1
BUF       41    51.3%       39    48.8%     80      5.0
SD        43    53.8%       37    46.3%     80      5.0
CAR       40    51.3%       38    48.7%     78      4.9
BAL       39    51.3%       37    48.7%     76      4.8
OAK       30    39.5%       46    60.5%     76      4.8
PIT       43    58.1%       31    41.9%     74      4.6
SEA       42    56.8%       32    43.2%     74      4.6
GB        33    45.8%       39    54.2%     72      4.5
IND       39    54.2%       33    45.8%     72      4.5
CIN       39    55.7%       31    44.3%     70      4.4
CLE       38    54.3%       32    45.7%     70      4.4
STL       38    54.3%       32    45.7%     70      4.4
MIN       45    67.2%       22    32.8%     67      4.2
KC        40    61.5%       25    38.5%     65      4.1
WAS       44    71.0%       18    29.0%     62      3.9
ATL       27    45.8%       32    54.2%     59      3.7
JAX       34    57.6%       25    42.4%     59      3.7
NYJ       30    51.7%       28    48.3%     58      3.6
DAL       30    61.2%       19    38.8%     49      3.1
NE        26    57.8%       19    42.2%     45      2.8
========================================================
Total   1375    53.6%     1191    46.4%   2566    160.4

Philadelphia looks like the main outlier here, but teams like Miami and San Francisco gave out about twice as many PDs as New England and Dallas did.

Same thing for solo tackles:

                  SOLO TACKLES
Stadium     Home              Road        Total   P/Game
========================================================
BAL      346    44.9%      424    55.1%    770     48.1
SEA      373    48.8%      391    51.2%    764     47.8
HOU      375    49.3%      385    50.7%    760     47.5
STL      390    51.5%      367    48.5%    757     47.3
IND      395    52.6%      356    47.4%    751     46.9
SD       355    47.8%      387    52.2%    742     46.4
OAK      379    51.4%      359    48.6%    738     46.1
NYJ      395    53.6%      342    46.4%    737     46.1
KC       354    48.6%      375    51.4%    729     45.6
ARI      333    45.7%      395    54.3%    728     45.5
ATL      356    49.1%      369    50.9%    725     45.3
CLE      368    50.9%      355    49.1%    723     45.2
NYG      362    50.3%      357    49.7%    719     44.9
TB       344    48.3%      368    51.7%    712     44.5
NE       376    53.0%      334    47.0%    710     44.4
CHI      366    51.6%      343    48.4%    709     44.3
NO       344    49.0%      358    51.0%    702     43.9
JAX      343    49.3%      353    50.7%    696     43.5
GB       335    48.4%      357    51.6%    692     43.3
PHI      330    47.8%      361    52.2%    691     43.2
TEN      334    48.5%      354    51.5%    688     43.0
WAS      317    46.7%      362    53.3%    679     42.4
MIN      345    51.9%      320    48.1%    665     41.6
BUF      351    53.1%      310    46.9%    661     41.3
CAR      335    50.8%      324    49.2%    659     41.2
PIT      322    49.4%      330    50.6%    652     40.8
DEN      293    45.0%      358    55.0%    651     40.7
SF       337    52.2%      309    47.8%    646     40.4
DAL      265    41.4%      375    58.6%    640     40.0
DET      336    53.5%      292    46.5%    628     39.3
CIN      286    47.0%      322    53.0%    608     38.0
MIA      291    51.1%      278    48.9%    569     35.6
========================================================
Total  11031    49.5%    11270    50.5%  22301   1393.8

Not much difference, although it is interesting that Miami and Pitt show up on the low side here while showing up at the top of the assists list. That's a pretty clear indicator that they aren't simply inflating stats across the board but rather are just using a different standard when determining who gets credit for a tackle. Looks like they are more likely to give out multiple assists instead of trying to identify the one person who should be credited with a solo stop.

Here's a table of overall numbers to try and get a sense of the big picture here.

                      OVERALL NUMBERS
Stadium       Solos      Assist        PD      Points      Pts/G
================================================================
HOU             760         276        89       987.0       61.7
BAL             770         231        76       961.5       60.1
IND             751         268        72       957.0       59.8
PHI             691         120       201       952.0       59.5
SEA             764         228        74       952.0       59.5
CLE             723         301        70       943.5       59.0
NYG             719         252        92       937.0       58.6
SD              742         224        80       934.0       58.4
TEN             688         330        81       934.0       58.4
NYJ             737         273        58       931.5       58.2
NE              710         318        45       914.0       57.1
GB              692         289        72       908.5       56.8
BUF             661         329        80       905.5       56.6
PIT             652         359        74       905.5       56.6
TB              712         210        88       905.0       56.6
ARI             728         165        93       903.5       56.5
NO              702         226        85       900.0       56.3
OAK             738         134        76       881.0       55.1
MIA             569         386       112       874.0       54.6
STL             757          79        70       866.5       54.2
CHI             709         132        91       866.0       54.1
SF              646         218        97       852.0       53.3
KC              729         108        65       848.0       53.0
DEN             651         178        94       834.0       52.1
CAR             659         189        78       831.5       52.0
DET             628         233        87       831.5       52.0
MIN             665         180        67       822.0       51.4
ATL             725          75        59       821.5       51.3
WAS             679         147        62       814.5       50.9
CIN             608         268        70       812.0       50.8
JAX             696         110        59       810.0       50.6
DAL             640         156        49       767.0       47.9
================================================================
TOTAL         22301        6992      2566     28363.0     1772.7

So, what can we conclude from all this? Not completely sure. I would really like to find out if these differences are consistent from year to year, and also want to try and break things down by play at some point to see how much of these differences can be explained by simple differences in the number of plays being run. I also hope to compare these numbers with the 2006 data and also to eventually compare them to 2004 and maybe earlier years as well.

For now though, there are some things that I think we can take away from these numbers:

• Defensive backs who play in Philadelphia are generally going to be good starting options because they seem to hand out PDs like candy there. Home and road teams combined for 12.6 PDs/game last year, which was 2.5 times the league average of 5. In contrast, DBs who play in New England look like weak plays as they only handed out 2.8 PDs/game last year.



• Players who have games in Miami, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Buffalo, and New England are probably more likely to be credited with assisted tackles when they are involved in a play than players in Atlanta, St. Louis, Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Philadelphia. These differences may be offset by a reverse trend in solo tackles, however, so be careful not to rely too much on any individual statistic.



• Overall, it looks like some of the more fantasy-friendly stadiums last year were Houston, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and Seattle. In contrast, places like Dallas, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, and Minnesota seemed a little unfriendly to fantasy owners.

Based on all of the above and a general impression of how I expect the games to go this week, the following players look like relatively strong and/or weak plays:

Strong Plays

• DL Terrell Suggs, Baltimore (Vs Oakland) - We just saw the Chargers pass rush terrorize Aaron Brooks and the Raiders passing game, so this should be a great match-up for Suggs and the Ravens pass rush.



• DL Luis Castillo, San Diego (Vs Tennessee) - The Titans didn't face a tough pass rush from the Jets last week but their offensive line is in for a long day on Sunday this week. Kerry Collins is a statue in the pocket, and the Chargers should be able to put a lot of pressure on him.



• LB Eric Barton, NY Jets (Vs New England) - The Patriots are going to be a run-heavy offense this year with Dillon, Maroney, and even Faulk all joining in the fun. Barton shouldn't have too much trouble building on his solid 6 solo, 3 assist game against the Titans last week.



• LB Kirk Morrison, Oakland (@ Baltimore) - The Ravens have a nice collection of weapons in the passing game but if their defense dominates this game like they should, they will be running out the clock in the second half and that should lead to a lot of tackle opportunities for Morrison.



• DB Sheldon Brown, Philadelphia (Vs NY Giants) - With Lito Sheppard out of the game with a sprained ankle, Brown should see a lot of time matched up against Plaxico Burress. Any DB from this game is a pretty reasonable starting option since both teams will likely be throwing the ball pretty often.



• DB Donte Whitner, Buffalo (@ Miami) - Whitner had an impressive debut last week against the Patriots even though he didn't start the game. Look for him to see a lot of action this week against a Miami team hoping to rebound after their loss to Pittsburgh in the opener.

Weak Plays

• DL Mario Williams, Houston (@ Indianapolis) - Mario didn't make much of an impact against the Eagles last week and things probably won't be much better this week against the Colts since Peyton is consistently the least sacked QB in the league. Hard to imagine Williams having much success against this team when Strahan and Umenyiora struggled.



• DL Jevon Kearse, Philadelphia (Vs NY Giants) - The Eagles plan to rotate their entire defensive line on alternating series so that should wind up limiting the total number of snaps for their starters. The Giants offense hasn't been too friendly for opposing defensive linemen anyway, but it will be even harder for the Eagles players to make an impact given the lack of playing time.



• LB Marcus Washington, Washington (@ Dallas) - Dallas seemed to be the least fantasy-friendly stadium in the tables above so if those numbers are indicative of a real trend, this looks like it could be a tough match-up for IDPs. Washington is one of the few SLBs around the league who is actually productive enough to be a reliable fantasy starter, but he figures to put up some low tackle numbers this week.



• LB Gary Brackett, Indianapolis (Vs Houston) - The Texans running game never got going last week against the Eagles and we can probably expect a similar result this week. Brackett had a decent game last week, but the drop-off from Tiki Barber to Wali Lundy is huge. If the Colts get out to a big lead early, the Texans won't be able to run the ball much at all in this game either.



• DB Erik Coleman, NY Jets (Vs New England) - Coleman missed a lot of training camp after having an appendectomy and he may take a little while to get back up to full speed. He didn't do much against the Titans last week, and the Patriots figure to be running the ball a lot this week instead of throwing it deep where Coleman will be as the team's free safety.



• DB Terrence Kiel, San Diego (Vs Tennessee) - Kiel had a disappointing statline in the week 1 blowout of the Raiders, and things probably won't be too much better this week. Kiel's strength comes from his ability to stop the run, but the Titans aren't likely to be running much against the Chargers this week.