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Preseason IDP Roundtable #1
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Posted 8/14 by FBG Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Our IDP staff takes a look at the latest happenings on the defensive side of
the ball.
Question: There were
reports this week that Buffalo LB Takeo Spikes has been lining up over the tight
end most often leaving Angelo Crowell on the weak side of the defense. Will
this remain true all season? What impact will this have on both players
fantasy prospects?
John Norton: I
haven't seen much elaboration on that situation. Some Tampa-2 teams like to
use right and left OLB as opposed to strong weak. I'm wondering at this point
if maybe the Bills are going that route. If Spikes gets stuck on the strong
side full time it will surely knock his production down considerably. Likewise
Crowell's value would jump. It's really too early to tell what is going on here.
We need to see a little preseason action to get a better feel.
Sigmund Bloom: The
WLB is required to chase a lot of plays down, and Spikes may have trouble doing
that in his first year back from an Achilles tear. Crowell played well enough
last year to make me think that he could make it difficult for the Bills to
get him out of that spot. Right now, I think Spikes is going entirely too high
on name recognition. I would not recommend taking him based on this risk alone.
Crowell can be had for a song - he's a solid late round pick in leagues with
large rosters, but I wouldn't count on him.
Aaron Rudnicki: This
certainly could wind up hurting Spikes fantasy value in the short-term and may
be an indication that the team is more concerned about his recovery from a torn
Achilles than they are letting on. Both players are athletic and versatile so
the Bills may just go with a right-side LB and left-side LB this year and the
weak/strong distinction may not be that significant. That being said, a key
factor to watch for is who plays in the team's nickel package. If Spikes winds
up being just a 2-down LB this year, it is hard to imagine him putting up numbers
that would warrant starting him in most leagues. If Crowell winds up as a 3-down
LB in the Bills new system, he could easily post top-20 numbers. Last thing
to watch out for here is any update on when Spikes plans to return as there
was a recent report that suggested he might not play until week 3 of the regular
season when the Bills have their home opener. If Spikes can recover and play
like his old self, I would think the Bills would want him on the field as much
as possible though as he is an elite playmaker and team leader. He's the type
of player who will probably be productive no matter where he plays.
Jene Bramel: That
alignment has been confirmed in a couple different places this past week. It
probably bumps Spikes' value down and Crowell's value up but maybe not as much
as one might think. The alignment will probably be a LOLB/ROLB setup rather
than a defined SLB/WLB and, if he's healthy enough to play, Spikes is almost
certainly a three down backer. Until we see how it plays out on the field, this
is a tough linebacker corps to handicap. My guess is that both Spikes and Crowell
produce as LB2-3 this season, but consistency may be an issue for both.
Bob Magaw: It
is uncertain if the current deployment will remain in effect the entire season.
Crowell (brother of once promising former DET WR Germane) has great athleticism,
as does Spikes. They could both probably play all three positions (though MLB
is of course in good hands with London Fletcher), so that doesn't really give
us a clue and in the Tampa Bay Cover Two, which the new DC is installing as
the base defense, they basically start three WLBs. After being buried behind
Pro Bowler Spikes, the ex-Bengal's torn Achilles tendon injury thrust Crowell
into the spotlight and he was nothing less than a revelation. He brought some
of the same explosiveness and playmaking attributes to the table as Spikes,
with multiple big plays (3 sacks, 2 INTs & 1 FF). He also finished on a
roll, with his second half split projecting to close to 100 tackles. An Achilles
injury is tough to bounce back from immediately. Sam Cowart was never really
the same after his, and Pro Bowler Julian Peterson didn't quite look the same
in 2005 (though he is said to have regained the freakish burst in his second
season back). WLB is very demanding in terms of requiring the speed and quickness
to run and chase from the backside, so having Spikes at SLB could easily be
the best permutation of BUF LBs, at least for this season. If Crowell remains
on the field for third down it is very possible he could surpass Spikes in production.
In this scheme, the WLB holds a feature role. Derrick Brooks has been a Pro
Bowler for about a decade in it and is a certain HoFer.
Q: What kind of ripple
effect will the four week suspension of LB Odell Thurman have on the Bengals'
defense? Where will Ahmad Brooks play in the short and long term?
JN: The Bengals
probably hope that they don't have to fit Brooks in for the short term but between
Odell's suspension and Pollack's hamstring, they may have no choice. He hasn't
been with the team long enough to know the defense very well so if he plays
it will likely be at SLB until Pollack returns. The Thurman situation is real
interesting. There have been rumors that he may not play at all this year though
the people who were printing those didn't give any reason why that would happen.
For the first four games Brian Simmons will play in the middle with Landon Johnson
on the weak side. Simmons can be a productive fantasy option in that position
but there is no real reason to believe he will hold it beyond maybe mid-October.
SB: Losing Thurman
may short circuit the big play defense the Bengals thrived on last year. Odell
was responsible for 5 forced fumbles and 5 INTs, and Brian Simmons is just not
that kind of difference maker, although he is a quality LB. Ahmad Brooks could
easily join Thurman in the middle long term (assuming the switch to the 3-4)
if he returns to his 2004 form at Virginia - he has the talent of a first round
pick, but like many recent Bengals picks, he carries character concerns. In
the short term, Brooks should be battling for the backup MLB job. I don't see
him being an LB of any fantasy import in the 2006 season.
AR: Odell Thurman
was being drafted like a top-12 LB in most leagues this year, just like his
sophomore counterpart Lofa Tatupu. Although Thurman didn't rack up a ton of
tackles, he demonstrated his potential as a playmaker and was poised to join
the elite fantasy linebackers this year. As long as he only misses 4 games,
he could still help out your team but I wonder if he'll reclaim his starting
spot as soon as he returns. He's not exactly an established star yet, and Marvin
Lewis may have to get tough on these guys at some point before he loses control
of the team. The plan is to move Brian Simmons inside and let Landon Johnson
start at WLB. If that setup works well early on, perhaps they stick with it
for awhile even after Thurman returns. If not, then Simmons probably shifts
back outside once Thurman returns and Johnson returns to a backup/nickel back
type role. Ahmad Brooks is a talented player, but I expect he'll have more of
a backup role for this season and would only get a shot if things fell apart
in front of him. He could be a key building block if the team tries to switch
to a 3-4 defense next year though, which has been rumored as a possibility for
a little while now.
JB: The Bengal
coaching staff has decided to move WLB Brian Simmons to the middle. Simmons
has some experience as a middle backer having played there earlier in his career.
His understanding of the scheme and his responsibility will be a plus and it
will allow the Bengals to use the smaller, quicker Landon Johnson at the Will
where he won't have to deal with as much traffic. Simmons gets a pretty nice
boost in value, from a LB4 in most leagues to a solid LB2 at minimum while Johnson
should match Simmons' WLB numbers, then return to the bench when Thurman returns.
Brooks is the wildcard here. He's already impressing the coaching staff with
his speed and power and has shown decent cover skills as well. It's not inconceivable
that he could work his way into the mix at MLB sooner than later but expect
the Bengals to use their established vets against a tough first month's schedule.
Long term, Brooks projects to be an important piece in future 3-4 looks and
could work inside or outside depending on where the Bengals prefer to slot Simmons.
Think Mike Vrabel with a much higher ceiling.
BM: They should
be OK. They will miss the explosive, big play element Thurman brings (or brought)
- he was tied for first among LBs in INTs (5) with Cato June and led all LBs
in FFs (5). But Simmons played there earlier in his career, and though he may
not be as fast as he used to be, he compensates with his experience and vet
football smarts. He is an excellent athlete who is fast enough to play WLB well
as well as big and stout enough to man the middle for an extended stint if needed.
Apart from Thurman, who was easily one of the top three LBs from last year's
stellar class that included DROY Shawne Merriman and runner up Lofa Tatupu,
an even bigger problem was that the team was soft against the run and fielded
a rush defense that was near the bottom of the league. If free agent Sam Adams
has anything left in the tank he could help a lot, as will the return of FS
Madieu Williams (went on IR early in 2005), a talented DB equally adept making
plays on the ball or coming up in run support. Brooks is an enigma. Many scouts
insisted he could have been a top 5-10 overall LB based on his showing at Virginia
in 2004. If the CIN coaching staff can get him scared straight and becomes born
again hard, there is little doubt that he has the kind of rare athleticism and
talent for a big man to be dominant (ex-Cav HC Al Groh used him as a kick returner
as an indication of his freakish skills... that is Urlacher-like). Longer term,
Brooks could be an excellent fit as an ILB in a projected 3-4 Marvin Lewis may
be gradually moving towards... or he could be the MLB of the future (with Simmons
returning to WLB) if Thurman disappoints and proves unable to rid himself of
the negative influences in his life. If so, Brooks will look like one of the
steals of the 2007 draft a year early.
Q: Are there any
rookies having a major impact already in camp that could be flying under the
radar in many leagues.
JN: One guy I
really like is Danieal Manning in Chicago. He came from a division II school
and didn't get much fan fare but the kid can flat play. He's looked good and
there are whispers that he is pushing Chris Harris for the FS job already. The
safety positions in Chicago can be pretty productive and then there are the
injury issues with Mike Brown. If Manning somehow lands at SS he could be special.
SB: Abdul Hodge
is at the top of the 3rd tier of LBs in rookie drafts, lasting into the 30s
of rookie drafts. As a natural MLB, he's got big fantasy potential. As the positive
buzz on him grows, he could easily be worth nearly the same as D'Qwell Jackson
and DeMeco Ryans - who are often going 10 or more picks earlier. He's a great
value pick in dynasty leagues and a player to watch in redraft.
AR: Still pretty
early for this, but DeMeco Ryans in Houston looks like he could begin the year
as a starter at MLB ahead of veteran Sam Cowart. He looks like the player most
likely to have a big impact right away, similar to what Lofa Tatupu and Odell
Thurman did last year. Abdul Hodge is also making an impact for the Packers
and has looked better than top-5 pick A.J. Hawk thus far. His play could force
the team to make a very tough decision and move Nick Barnett to SLB. If that
happens, Hodge instantly becomes a viable fantasy linebacker this year and Barnett's
value would take a significant hit. Clint Ingram is also pushing for a starting
job in Jacksonville that was opened up by the departure of Akin Ayodele to the
Cowboys this offseason. Thomas Howard is penciled in as the starting WLB in
Oakland with veteran Danny Clark possibly being reduced to a backup role.
JB: Atlanta cornerback
Jimmy Williams looks like he may start opposite DeAngelo Hall over Jason Webster.
Claude Wroten has been impressive so far in St. Louis and might have value in
leagues that use DTs by midseason.
BM: KC second
round pick SS Bernard Pollard has already been stoning ball carriers with his
signature trauma-inducing collisions. He will push incumbent SS Sammy Knight
HARD for the starting job, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise at all to see
him emerge very early this season with the job. Knight is heady and used to
be one of the best playmaking safeties in the game, but he was never that fast
to start with and has lost a step, and his coverage skills are eroding faster
than Mo Clarett's driving privileges. Pollard won't be mistaken for Troy Polamalu
in coverage any time soon but he can be a force in the box where he could have
a Bob Sanders-like impact blowing up RBs, and his secondary coaches think his
coverage skills, such as they are, will suffice to play SS in the Cover Two.
SS Donte Whitner hasn't been in camp long due to one of the lengthier first
round holdouts in the class of 2006, but he is very smart, dedicated, in excellent
physical condition and a gifted, well rounded athlete that should get acclimated
quickly. He is a hybrid DB that was one of the best open field tacklers in the
draft, but has the skills to handle the coverage responsibilities he is given.
He could really surprise this year. FS Jason Allen (another late reporting stud
DB with hybrid talents), despite his own holdout, should be a lock to start
soon if not by the season opener. In the Dolphins scheme, the FS and SS are
fairly interchangeable. He is a physical specimen with freakish speed that broke
the TEN record for tackles by a non-LB. DE Daryl Tapp has been getting mixed
reviews (typical of a rookie), but has been getting a lot of time in camp and
it is pretty clear that he will see a lot of snaps once the season begins and
figure prominently in mix for the SEA DE rotation. Independent scout Mike Mayock
recently reiterated that DT Claude Wroten has looked as good as advertised,
and if he can put his troubled past behind him, has the kind of talent to become
one of the most dominant young players in the league at the position. He has
the rare combo of size, power, leverage, speed & quickness, explosiveness
& rushing instincts of a young John Randle, Warren Sapp and La'Roi Glover.
Also keep an eye out for ILB D'Qwell Jackson, who has the talent to beat out
former OLB Chaun Thompson with superior instincts, and keep the job for the
next decade. He should ring up a few tackles in the run-friendly AFC North,
even next to the voracious Andra Davis.
Q: How are the post
NFL draft consensus big three LBs (A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Chad Greenway) looking
in camp so far?
JN: It's been
relatively quiet on all fronts with those guys. Abdul Hodge has been more impressive
than Hawk so far in Packers camp, all the talk out of Detroit has been about
Bailey playing in the middle and the Vikings seem to have motivated Henderson
by drafting Greenway.
SB: Hawk has not
blown anyone away in camp and has been making some typical rookie mistakes but
he is still on track to start at WLB. Sims has been knocking heads and making
plays just as he did at Florida State. He's currently behind Alex Lewis at WLB
for the first preseason game, but don't expect that to last. Greenway is firmly
behind a sharp, motivated E.J. Henderson at WLB and may not make an impact until
later on in the season.
AR: Hawk was pretty
quiet in the Packers scrimmage and has been overshadowed by 3rd round pick Abdul
Hodge thus far. Ernie Sims signed late but made an impact soon after signing
with some big hits in practice. He'll bring some much needed toughness to the
Lions LB group. Chad Greenway was considered the early favorite to start at
the playmaking WLB spot in the Vikings new Cover 2 defense, but E.J. Henderson
has reportedly been the best defender in camp and appears to have a solid grip
on the starting job for now.
JB: Hawk and Sims
are working with the first team and reports are that both are as good as advertised.
Greenway is still behind E.J. Henderson at WLB in Minnesota. He still has time
to earn the job, but it's looking like he may not have an immediate impact this
season.
BM: Its
still very early. It was surprising to hear that third rounder Abdul Hodge has
actually looked more impressive than fifth overall pick and more high profile
Hawk. But based on his body of work in college, Hawk has a very bright future
and should still emerge as one of the top two LBs from the class of 2006, along
with Ernie Sims. Greenway is not coming along as fast. If he doesn't dislodge
a re-energized E.J. Henderson (the top MLB prospect from the 2003 class, who
has been slow to emerge) from WLB soon, he may not have the kind of impact this
season as his owners had hoped. He was not as highly regarded as the above two
LBs, and many scouts were divided on him. While he is a tremendous athlete,
his instincts and physicality at shedding blocks were questioned at times. He
is superb in coverage, where he moves like and has ball skills of a FS. Regardless
of if he is slow out of the blocks to start his career, it is hard to envision
him not starting by 2007 at the latest, but Henderson may have something to
say about that and he could be shunted to MLB if Napoleon Harris disappoints
again as he has in the past.
Q: It looks like
Texans' LB DeMeco Ryans will start at MLB. How high is his ceiling? How might
the rest of the starting lineup line up on opening weekend?
JN: The sky is
the limit for Ryans, especially in that target rich environment. He's one of
those guys who doesn't have eye popping measurables but when he puts on the
pads the kid is every bit as good as any linebacker in this year's draft.
SB: Ryans could
easily be a top 20 LB as the MLB on a team that should be playing from behind
a decent amount.
AR: The Texans
got great value with Ryans on draft day. He's not quite as athletic and may
not have the measurables that the "big 3" guys do, but he's a smart,
instinctive, tough linebacker who could have a Tatupu-like impact for the Texans.
Cowart is nearing the end of his career and is probably better suited to a reserve
role at this point anyway. Ryans could become the focal point of the Texans
defense and has a very high ceiling. Morlon Greenwood looks like he will start
at WLB and he should put up solid numbers as an everydown linebacker. The SLB
spot looks like it will be held by Shantee Orr with Kailee Wong still recovering
from a devastating knee injury.
JB: If Ryans starts
at MLB from Week 1, he should become the most productive rookie IDP. The planets
are aligned -- well rounded, instinctive player, relatively poor defense with
no other major tackle producers, questionable offense that could keep the defense
on the field -- for Ryans to become a stud in all leagues. Morlon Greenwood
would have a near lock on the WLB job with Ryans in the middle and could have
good value picking up the scraps. After making a surprisingly quick recovery
from a knee injury, Kailee Wong will apparently line up on the strong side when
he's fully healthy ahead of Shawntee Orr. Neither will have much value.
Q: Have there been
any new developments in the Viking linebacker situation?
JN: I wrote in
my EOTG that I expected Greenway to start right away but Henderson seems to
have different plans. He shed a few pounds and is looking much quicker. Word
out of Minnesota is the Harris will start in the middle with Leber strong, Henderson
weak and Greenway on the sideline. It's still a long time before opening day
and I still believe Greenway will find his way onto the field. I just don't
know who, if anyone here, is going to have a full time role.
SB: Napoleon Harris
has taken a considerable lead over Dontarrious Thomas at MLB and E.J. Henderson
has been a standout at WLB.
AR: E.J. Henderson
has apparently been the best defender in training camp thus far and may finally
be living up to the expectations many had for him when he entered the league.
It appears as though he will hold off Chad Greenway for the starting WLB job.
At MLB, Napoleon Harris is the front runner and appears happy to be back at
the position he played early in his career with the Raiders. He'll be backed
up by Dontarrious Thomas, who has been in and out of the starting lineup throughout
his brief career. No changes at SLB with Ben Leber expected to take over after
signing a 5-year, $20 million deal this offseason.
JB: Things are
beginning to firm up -- for now. It appears that Napoleon Harris is emerging
as the probable Week 1 MLB. Greenway has yet to displace E.J. Henderson as the
first team WLB. The longer Henderson gets the bulk of his snaps at the Will,
the less likely it is that he'll be able to make a smooth transition to the
Mike in the Tampa-2 scheme. It's a tough spot for E.J. owners because Greenway
will play as soon as he's ready, which should be soon. Ben Leber is pretty much
inked in at the SLB position. Dontarrious Thomas looks to be an afterthought
at this point.
Q: The Saints' LB
situation continues to be a mess. Colby Bockwoldt was demoted to the third string,
Anthony Simmons retired unexpectedly, and Nate Wayne was signed off the scrap
heap -- will anybody on the roster become a reliable fantasy option?
JN: There are
certainly no sure things here but I like both Alfred Fincher and Scott Fujita.
Fincher was slow to pick up the pro game as a rookie but has a lot of upside.
Fujita will never make a Pro Bowl but he's a solid dependable type player and
the situation could be golden.
SB: No. Alfred
Fincher and Scott Fujita are worth late round fliers/FA pickup watch list status,
but that is it. I wouldn't be shocked to see Donnie Edwards end up there.
AR: Alfred Fincher
looks like he could take over the MLB job and Tommy Polley is the current starter
at WLB, so both of those guys are worth a roster spot in most leagues. Fincher
was a good college linebacker who could surprise with a new system and coaching
staff. Polley has starting experience and was very productive in Baltimore last
year after Ray Lewis was lost to an injury.
JB: I'm still
on the Albert Fincher bandwagon. Unless he flops, he's a near lock to start
at MLB at this point as his primary competition (Bockwoldt and Polley) are probably
fighting over the spot left vacant by Simmons. Fincher will be a reliable fantasy
producer in that role. If Scott Fujita stays on the weak side, he'll probably
have reasonable value as well.
BM: If Fincher
maintains his tentative hold on MLB (free agent and former Texan stalwart Jay
Foreman could get a crack if he falters) he could be one of the sleepers and
major surprises to emerge from the 2006 season at any defensive position. He
had a great career in college but flew under the radar as his alma mater UConn
is more known for being a basketball powerhouse. With the interior DL being
a bit iffy (Will Smith and Charles Grant should be among the league's best DE
tandems on the edge), he may see a lot of action come his way. With the abrupt
departure/retirement of Anthony Simmons due to personal and injury reasons,
Tommy Polley could put up some serious points at WLB. Always a gifted athlete
(one of top basketball players in the nation as a highly recruited prep), he
had a rep as being a "finesse" player while with the Rams, but appeared
to be coached up into a better tackler in a 2005 stint with the Ravens. He is
still fairly young, and could flourish with a fresh start.
Q: The Raiders announced
that rookie Thomas Howard would start camp as the starting WLB, moving Kirk
Morrison to the middle, and Danny Clark to the bench. How does this affect the
outlook of both Howard and Morrison? Will Clark have any value at all this season?
JN: For the most
part Clark's value was gone when the club drafted Morrison last year. To this
point I've not been too high on Howard but he looked pretty good in the first
preseason game. It piqued my interest to say the least. Morrison is a tackling
machine. If he can pick up just a few big plays here and there he could become
a perennial top 10 LB.
SB: Morrison has
a chance to be a stud LB in the middle and should be a top 25 LB even if he
still lacks the big plays like he did last year. Clark is not enough of a standout
player that he *must* be playing, so his fantasy value is minimal right now
- close to a guy like James Darling in Arizona - a competent player who can
put up decent numbers when he plays, but not one of the most talented LBs on
his team.
AR: Morrison was
one of last year's bigger surprises and showed a lot more athleticism and cover
ability than expected. Coming out of college, he was thought of as more of a
2-down linebacker who would struggle in coverage or at OLB, but the Raiders
used him in their base 2-LB defense along with Danny Clark and he had a great
season. This year, it appears the Raiders want to make him the focal point of
their defense so they will shift him inside to MLB. Thomas Howard is an unproven
rookie but has excellent speed and played well in the hall of fame game. Sam
Williams is listed as the current starter at SLB but he's never been able to
stay healthy and I suspect Danny Clark will move into the starting lineup there
at some point. Clark's value will definitely take a big hit if he winds up at
SLB and loses his spot in the team's nickel package too.
JB: Howard looked
good in the Raiders' first preseason game. He made some typical rookie errors,
but was quick and often in position to pick up tackles downfield and certainly
played well enough to keep Clark on the second team. Morrison was hindered by
some pretty terrible play by the interior defensive line but should still easily
be the most valuable fantasy defender. One preseason game probably isn't enough
to make an informed decision, but it appears that Howard and Morrison (and Sam
Williams) have settled in enough to keep Clark out of the lineup. He's got no
value unless he starts in the middle of this defense. If he is cut, which is
unlikely but has been rumored, it's very doubtful that he'll catch on in a productive
role anywhere else.
BM: This is huge
for Morrison. In what some dubbed "The Year of the LB", Morrison was
overshadowed by the likes of Merriman, Tatupu, Thurman, and Ware, despite leading
all rookies in tackles. While he didn't have any big plays (sacks or INTs),
he could amass a LOT of tackles in his new role. He also flashes deceptive speed
and athleticism, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him add a few (especially
FFs) as he becomes more comfortable with the speed of the game. Howard was one
of the three fastest LBs at the combine (ran a 4.4 with Manny Lawson and Jon
Alston) and thus a classic Raiders pick. If there was a criticism it was that
he was very raw due to his lesser level of competition (UTEP), and worse, his
instincts (lack of which can be a death blow to a LBs career... sort of like
a RB... either you got 'em or you don't). He was impressive, though, in the
Hall of Fame exhibition game. Realistically, OAK doesn't have the look of a
team that is ready to compete for the playoffs this season. Though HC Al Davis...
uhhm, I mean Art Shell might not want to admit this is a rebuilding year, that
is the reality and it makes sense to see what the club has in their talented
youngsters, as they will be the leaders of the defense in the near future. Clark
does not look like a good proposition on draft day at this point.
Q: Are we any closer
to knowing how the Charger safety battle will play out?
JN: No, if anything
it got even cloudier with the news that Jue is working with the first team at
FS early on. I'm not a McCree fan at all so this comes as no surprise in my
eyes but it sure doesn't help us when it's time to draft.
SB: Expect Marlon
McCree to occupy one of the two spots, likely free safety. The battle for SS
is still open, with the coaches shuffling the safety units to see which combos
and alignments work best. This battle could easily go down to the wire and change
early in the season if the starter struggles.
AR: McCree was
a linebacker in college and played well at strong safety for the Panthers last
year after filling in for rookie Thomas Davis, but he's likely to start at free
safety with the Chargers this year. The battle for the starting SS job appears
to still be a 3-way competition. Kiel is the best run defender of the three
and began training camp as the starter. Bhawoh Jue ended last year as a starter
and may get a chance to reclaim that job once he's recovered from an offseason
knee procedure. Clinton Hart began camp as the backup and appears to have the
longest way to go to win the starting job. The Chargers struggled to make plays
in the secondary last year and Jue has shown the most ability in that area with
3 interceptions last year so that could help put him over the edge.
JB: Not really.
While the coaches haven't formally confirmed it, Marlon McCree is pretty much
assured of the FS job. He's the best cover safety on the roster and has the
veteran leadership qualities the front office wants. The battle royale continues
at strong safety. Clinton Hart got the buzz for most of the offseason, but it
was Terrance Kiel who ran with the first team to start camp. And this week there
were reports that Bhawoh Jue, who is returning from knee microfracture surgery,
would get first team reps under the "you can't lose a starting job to injury"
rule. I still think Kiel winds up with this job and produces solid numbers in
the boxscore.
Q: There were reports
that Julian Peterson was lining up as the weak side linebacker the majority
of the time early in camp? Do you expect that to be the case all season? How
will the prospects of Peterson and Leroy Hill be affected?
JN: In the past
Seattle has been one of the clubs that goes right/left rather than strong/weak
at OLB. They love Hills speed and pass rush ability. The fantasy value
here will likely come down to who takes a seat when the nickel package is on
the field. What's real interesting to me is that with all the speed and ability
they have at OLB, Seattle could often stay in their base defense against 3 receiver
sets. Both Peterson and Hill can rush the passer, both are very fast and both
have excellent cover skills for linebackers.
SB: Peterson should
line up all over the formation all season with his versatility. Leroy Hill will
be third in the pecking order of the LBs when it comes to tackles.
AR: Peterson is
one of the most versatile players in the league so the Seahawks can do a lot
of different things with him to take advantage of his unique abilities. In addition
to being one of the best linebackers in the league, he can also line up as a
pass rushing defensive end or drop back to cover a slot WR. Regardless of whether
he lines up on the strong side or the weak side, I expect the Seahawks will
use a nickel defense less frequently than most teams. They don't have much depth
at CB and that will allow them to keep both Hill and Peterson on the field more
often. Peterson's fantasy value will likely continue to be inconsistent and
highly dependent on big plays like interceptions and sacks. If Hill becomes
a 2-down linebacker and plays on the strong side, he will have a hard time reaching
last year's numbers.
BM: Peterson reportedly
looks all the way back after a down year in 2005 while he was still feeling
the residual effects of the usually tricky torn Achilles tendon recovery. Before
the injury, he was a multi-Pro Bowler and many scouts graded him as one of the
most talented OLBs in the game. He is a physical specimen and one of the top
athletes in the NFL at any position (along with Julius Peppers). He is the only
player in modern history known to have lined up at DE, LB, S & CB... IN
THE SAME GAME! A bummer for his owners was he was always one of those players
that was better in terms of his actual football skills, which didn't necessarily
translate to massive IDP scoring (most leagues don't heavily reward coverage
ability). SEA did sign him to a monster, bank-breaking contract in line with
one of the top LBs in the game (or any defender, for that matter), so you have
to think the Seahawks brain trust of GM Tim Ruskell and HC Mike Holmgren will
want to squeeze out all the bang for their buck they can by maximizing the formidable,
multifaceted array of skills possessed by their new WLB. If he starts to rack
up tackles commensurate with an above average WLB on top of his big play ability
(he could take a run at double digit sacks and add some INTs & FFs), top
20 numbers are well within his reach. The fact that rock solid Tatupu is holding
down the middle will allow the SEA defensive coaches to get creative and use
him in a variety of ways to keep offenses guessing and off balance. I don't
like Hill for IDP purposes as much as I did before Peterson was signed but he
could still rack up a lot of sacks. The team led the NFL in that department
last season without Peterson and they have a nasty DL rotation.
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