Question: What's the story with the Atlanta Falcon LB unit? Why has Michael Boley produced so well from the strong side? Will Ed Hartwell immediately return to a starting role when healthy?

Shawn Culcasi: Michael Boley's solid production from the strongside in Atlanta is certainly a head-scratcher. It leads me to believe that the Falcons have been getting creative with their formations to compensate for both John Abraham and Ed Hartwell missing from the lineup. Aside from the Arizona game, Atlanta's schedule hasn't been particularly LB-friendly, which could've been a factor to point to. A team placing a developing player in spots to make plays. Will it continue? Both Abraham and Hartwell have targeted an October 15th return, which gives Boley one more week to shine in their absence. After that, don't be surprised if Boley reverts back into his traditional level of production (mediocre and inconsistent). Although, with John Abraham and Ed Hartwell being very familiar with the injury report, Boley's opportunity could resurface at any time.

Jene Bramel: The Falcon LB unit (and defense overall) has made an about-face against the run this year, stiffening up from 4.7 ypc to 3.1 ypc thus far in 2006. While free agent signee Grady Jackson has been a big part of this by clogging up the middle and freeing up WLB Demorrio Williams to make plays around the line of scrimmage instead of around the first down marker, SLB Michael Boley has been a big part of the transformation too. He's routinely getting off blocks and making tackles from the strong side. He's also been a big part of the Falcon nickel package, both in coverage (on pace for four picks and 16 PD) and at times as a pass rushing DE with John Abraham out with a groin injury. The concern with Boley has to be how he'll produce when Abraham returns. In week 1, Boley was not a part of the nickel package and put up the dreaded 0-0-0 in the boxscore.

No matter what happens with Boley's production, he is not coming out of the lineup when Hartwell is deemed healthy enough to play. It remains to be seen what will happen, but the Falcons will very likely revert to their preseason plan of moving Demorrio Williams to a hybrid nickel backer/safety role (similar to what the Eagles are trying to do with Brian Dawkins) should Hartwell rejoin the first team on rushing downs.

Bob Magaw: I still think Brooking is the man. His versatility is a little bit of a curse in that he is probably best positioned for IDP production from his preferred WLB spot, but he began his NFL career at MLB for the first few seasons, and with multiple injuries keeping prized free agent MLB but suddenly brittle-looking Edgerton Hartwell out of the lineup (early season-ending ruptured Achilles tendon in 05 followed by twin knee scopes to start 06), he has been shunted to MLB on an interim basis. In some systems MLB is the money position, but from the weak side he doesn't have to wrangle with blockers as much and can more fully leverage his elite combo of athleticism, speed, quickness, strength and instincts to fly to the ball carrier and be a sideline-to-sideline playmaker. If Hartwell doesn't have a setback, he could be back in a few weeks, but at present it is unclear if the ATL coaching staff will ease him back into the starting lineup gradually. Even when healthy last year, Hartwell had been hit and miss in the box score, and somewhat of a disappointment relative to the huge expectations from his stint in BAL. The addition of massive two-gab block-eater Grady Jackson could be a boon to him in 06, though, but I am in wait and see mode with Hartwell, and not just because of the medical issues that have clouded his future (though Achilles tendon injuries have been known to rob players of their explosiveness -- Sam Cowart most notably in recent seasons, and multi-Pro Bowler Julian Peterson in 05, though he seems close to all the back with SEA). Boley's SLB job should be safe regardless of Hartwell's status, but like some of my FBG IDP teammates, I'm a little skeptical that he will maintain his current elevated tackle levels once Hartwell and John Abraham return to health and the starting lineup. Perhaps in a best-case scenario he could be like a poor man's Leroy Hill and compensate for a lack of consistent tackle numbers with above average, Marcus Washington-like sack numbers. Monitor the Hartwell situation closely, because if for any reason he suffers complications and is slow to return, the player that could benefit the most is "interim" WLB Demorrio Williams. He looked like a future star as a rookie, compensating for a lack of prototypical size (he reportedly struggled to maintain even a SS-like 220 in season) with an electric first step, innate sense of pursuit angles, outstanding speed and open field tackling ability. He regressed in 05, though, often getting pushed around by smash mouth attacks, abandoning his gap assignments by running around blocks, over-pursuing and generally underwhelming and being one of the chief culprits when the Falcons were painfully and repeatedly gashed by opponents in the run game. This season he looks more like the 04 iteration, in which the arrow looked pointed up on his career. If Hartwell returns to some semblance of his prior form, however, Williams is expected to be relegated to nickel LB detail, which should severely mute his production and temper enthusiasm for his near to intermediate-term prospects.

Q: Mario Williams and Tamba Hali finally broke into the sack column this week. What are the prospects of both for the rest of the year in redraft leagues?

Shawn Culcasi: After his performance to open the season, I'd be surprised if anyone was relying on Mario Williams in redraft leagues (let alone wasting a roster spot). Even with 1.5 sacks in week 4, he's just not involved in enough plays to justify consideration. Guys like Dwight Freeney and Julius Peppers opened their careers with similar tackle production, but both offered more to the boxscore and you felt optimistic about their prospects. I don't feel as optimistic with Williams.

Unlike Williams, Tamba Hali has been active through his first three games (8 solo tackles, 6 assists, 1.5 sacks, one FF) and, while he lacks Williams' physical attributes, he makes up for it with nonstop desire. I'd feel much more comfortable relying on Hali on a weekly basis based on what we've seen to this point. It's been reported that Hali's mother, whom he hasn't seen in 12 years, is moving to the United States from Liberia. It'll be interesting to see if this effects his play at all, you'd think that her presence would help him ease into the NFL.

Jene Bramel: Mario Williams took some of the heat off himself by getting to Daunte Culpepper twice (awarded 1 1/2 sacks in the boxscore) last week. Although he did look better collapsing the pocket against Miami, what the boxscore doesn't tell you is that his rookie counterpart DeMeco Ryans was primarily responsible for disrupting the play on both sacks on blitzes but didn't finish the play. Williams should still be a desirable target in dynasty leagues as he is showing flashes of his freakish talent, but until the Texans surround him with something other than replacement level talent on the defensive line, he's going to struggle in all phases of the game as opposing offenses gameplan against him.

Tamba Hali is a different story. After more than holding his own against two solid pass blocking RT in Cincinnati's Willie Anderson and Denver's George Foster, Hali broke through with 1 1/2 sacks against another reasonable RT in 49er Kwame Harris. Hali, though not nearly as well sized as Williams, plays with excellent leverage and pursuit against the run (12 total tackles less sacks in 3 games) and has the benefit of elite pass rusher Jared Allen on the other side of the KC line. I've shared the chauffeur's license on the Hali bus with a couple of others on staff; in my opinion his time is now.

Bob Magaw: Long-term, I still like the upside of Mario Williams freakish athleticism and movement skills for his size (and he will fill out and get bigger and stronger under year round, NFL-style weight training, nutrition and conditioning regimens). But getting back on point, in redraft leagues, Hali appears to have a more NFL ready game. It may not have helped with Super Mario's initial development to move him all over the DL and force a rookie with an already steep and daunting learning curve to learn multiple positions, responsibilities and assignments... a good credo and maxim for rookies is KISS (keep it simple, stupid!). If the HOU coaching staff can keep from outsmarting themselves and just let Williams get comfortable in one position and allow his formidable natural tools to come to the fore, he could eventually become the monster that many predicted of him (though it takes some DEs a few years for the light to come on... see first three to four seasons for Michael Strahan, Leonard Little and Jason Taylor). Williams flashed rare talent on film, but he did come with some questions about his motor. The vast majority of his sacks were in the last few games of the season, when his coaches at N.C. State reportedly had to challenge him to fulfill his potential and had to resort to lighting a fire under him... he also wasn't even the best defensive player on his own team in the estimation of some scouts (they also had the highly regarded DE/OLB/track star Manny Lawson and MLB Stephen Tulloch). Hali is almost the complete opposite in that he has far from prototypical physical traits and lacks elite measurables, but he possesses off-the-charts intangibles, work ethic, character, leadership, passion for the game, desire to be great, motor, hustle and consistent, snap-to-snap intensity. Hali ran a pedestrian 40 time at his workout, but so did Terrell Suggs and he turned out more than OK (almost certainly one of the top 5 young DEs in the game for dynasty purposes). BAL HC Brian Billick once wryly noted in the wake of selecting Suggs that when DEs had to run 40 yards to catch the QB and get a sack, he would start worrying about his inability to clock a scorchingly fast 40 time. In retrospect, I may have have under-appreciated Hali and underestimated his ability to make a sudden impact (I was under the impression that he would get pushed around and struggle initially far more than he has proven to so far). Hali's best traits may be his relentlessness and tenaciousness, which are outstanding attributes for a DE. He has nice versatility in his background, and was a converted DT at Penn State who takes pride and devotes considerable attention and effort to run support. So even if he hits some dry patches in the sack department through a 16 game season, he looks capable of racking up consistent, above average tackle numbers for a DE. He is also superbly conditioned for a DL, which may make him more impervious and refractory to the effects of the dreaded rookie wall, which typically hits sometime around midseason. Anybody who knows even the bare minimum about Hali's background and improbable trek from his war-torn African homeland to college stardom and potential future NFL greatness knows there can be no doubt that he has supreme appreciation for the rare gift it is to be a professional athlete in America, and there is virtually zero risk that he will ever succumb to an Odell Thurman- type meltdown. You've gotta like that attitude and mind set.

Q: Will anyone in the Dallas 3-4 defense have a consistently good fantasy season?

Shawn Culcasi: Not likely. Through the first three games we've already seen the peaks and valleys that come with Cowboys defense. The one guy that you'd think could be a consistent performer is middle linebacker Bradie James, but with just 8 solo tackles that idea is shot. The OLBs will have great games and then disappear, the defensive linemen are pretty much useless. Terrence Newman is even off a bit with only 2 passes defended on the year and he's been one of the leagues most consistent performers over the last three seasons.

Jene Bramel: I wouldn't count out DB Roy Williams yet, but he's not having the breakout year many thought he might. The ILB in this defense have been a HUGE disappointment. Parcells' ILB in 3-4 defenses have been stud options everywhere but Dallas (Pepper Johnson, Marvin Jones, et al) but Bradie James just can't keep it together despite a very good three man front. And hopes that Akinola Ayodele would thrive in the 'Jack' LB role that is usually the money position in this 3-4 are fading. Demarcus Ware is probably an excellent buy low candidate in big play leagues, but he's yet to translate his improvement as an all-around LB to the boxscore to give him value in standard scoring setups. Don't give up on this scheme yet, it should provide some good fantasy points. Unfortunately, Parcells will probably take his scheme into the sunset with him before they get the talent to play well both on field and in the boxscore.

Bob Magaw: Working systematically through the positions in Parcells' favored 3-4 defense...

Marcus Spears and Chris Canty are outstanding 3-4 DEs and have almost perfect skill sets as far as meshing with what they are asked to do in this system. But lets face it, much of the time they are blocking sled dummies that free up the OLBs to make plays, and are rarely afforded the opportunities to make plays in their own right within the confines of the scheme. On to NT Jason Ferguson, do we even need to go there. Just as a cursory dismissal and IDP public service announcement, Norton's seminal defensive positional analysis hips us to the fact that the 3-4 NT is to IDP scoring potential what Larry Storch and Steven Seagal are to great American dramatic actors and Rosie O'Donnell and Kathy Bates are to hotness quotient. Among the LBs, although ILB Bradie James has made strides towards becoming more consistent (and was rewarded with a recent long-term contract extension), he remains somewhat of an enigma and too up and down for my taste. DeMarcus Ware is likely the most interesting LB option. He could be an ascendant player and emergent star, but as talented as he is, it remains to be seen if he can overcome the stigma of uneven production that seems to plague even the best 3-4 OLBs (see Willie McGinest), with erratic tackle numbers punctuated by the occasional flashes of dominance and multi-sack game outbursts which overall and on balance presents the unfortunate uncertainty and week-to-week unpredictability that is the antithesis of how to construct championship IDP rosters. In some respects, the scheme is reminiscent of Belichick's in NE (unsurprising since he spent his formative years with Parcells as a mentor), where it is hard to find many rocks of consistency, as part of the point is to use the inherent flexibility of the 3-4 as an advantage, opting to attack from different places and in different ways, exploiting matchups as they change literally from game to game... sometimes even WITHIN GAMES (depending on adjustments of opposing offenses... or lack thereof)! Except in this case, DAL doesn't seem to have even a Tedy Bruschi-like analogue in the front seven that offers a semi-consistent and dependable scoring option. The Cowboys best IDP scoring options may well be in the secondary. Newman and Henry are among the more talented and well-rounded CB tandems in the NFL. Both are solid in run support, with Newman having superior coverage chops. This might make Henry the more attractive option (especially in mandatory start CB leagues that break out DB scoring separately), as defenses would be expected to try and pick on him more than the nearly unbreachable Newman. Rookie FS Pat Watkins has been a very pleasant surprise. He wasn't necessarily -counted on or expected to start so quickly, but he has gotten off to a very good start. I agree with some of my IDP compadres that star SS Roy Williams probably has the most upside, but it is contingent on how he is used within the scheme. If he is turned loose and allowed to do what he does best, attacking the LOS and playing in fast forward mode, he has the talent to be one of the top playmaking DBs in the game. With Watkins looking promising in a center fielder capacity, the hope is that his presence will be conducive to more fully unleashing the full fury that is Roy Williams and better enable bringing to bear the full scope of his talents in attacking offenses. To extend the Pats comparison evoked above, Williams has a chance to be the top IDP option in DAL as Rodney Harrison was in NE. Ultimately, though, the face of the Cowboys doesn't likely have the upside of his even more versatile, well-rounded and talented Pro Bowl counterpart. While both are monster hitters, Williams isn't nearly as reliable an open field tackler and has far more severe limitations in coverage.

Q: Can Stuart Schweigert keep up his recent production? Or is he a two week wonder?

Shawn Culcasi: I wouldn't call Schweigert a two-week wonder because he's shown in the past that he capable of producing a handful of solo tackles per game, but whether or not he's able to keep his current pace will likely be determined by the Raiders offense. Currently they sit at next-to-last in time of possession (behind Tennessee) with their defense being on the field for an average of 34:58 per game. Last week was even worse (37:06) and Schweigert was able to take advantage of the opportunity with 10 solo tackles. If the offense in Oakland can find any sort of ball control ability, the overall stats for their defenders should come down.

Jene Bramel: It's probably a little harsh to call Schweigert a two week wonder as he's been very productive when starting for the Raiders. However, it is a little surprising that Schweigert is continuing his solid performance outside the "Big Nickel" defense this year behind two solid tackling options at LB (Kirk Morrison/Thomas Howard) and alongside highly regarded rookie SS Michael Huff. But Morrison has struggled at times behind a weak DT corps at a new position and Huff hasn't impressed at all, leaving Schweigert to fill up the boxscores again. He's a solid option until those two issues get resolved. Playing for a Raider defense likely to be on the field a significant portion of every game, he may have solid value even when Morrison and Huff settle into their new roles.

Bob Magaw: I'll take the cop-out answer of maybe somewhere in-between. I think it was FBGs Bob Henry that informed me Stu actually beat Charles Rogers in a sprint as a Michigan prep. On the other hand, the trampling he received at the feet of Greg Jones in a memorable Senior Bowl run left an indelible image of the wrong kind. I wasn't that high on him before this season, but many players have surprised me in the past and taken off after a few seasons in the league. For now, there are a lot of safeties I would rather have in dynasty leagues, though. The most important point made earlier, in my opinion, was that the prospects of continued and sustained elevated numbers is probably best thought as a function of and tightly connected with the state of the OAK offense. If they continue their bumbling ways, opposing offenses will dominate in time of possession, affording many more tackle (and big plays such as sacks, FFs & INTs) opportunities. If only because in these situations with horrifically skewed time of possession numbers they will tend to be on the field so much more often than their more fortunate counterparts with competent offenses. A creepy and spooky pre-Halloween thought is that if Count Chocula had his head cryogenically frozen like Walt Disney, he could continue to haunt the Raiders franchise and cast a dark pall over their future prospects, not just for years or even decades... but CENTURIES... MILLENNIA!!

Q: Close starting lineup calls are becoming more of an issue during the bye week portion of the schedule? Are there one or two primary matchup keys you use to decide on close lineup decisions regardless of scoring system?

Shawn Culcasi: I play close attention to time of possession differential and how long each defense is "expected" to be on the field. If it's a close call, going with the player who will have more opportunities to make plays is a good bet.

If your league uses My Fantasy League, they have a great option that shows you how many points have been allowed by each team to each position...with your scoring system. Makes life pretty easy, as do the Strength of Schedule and Fantasy Points Scored/Allowed reports provided by Clayton Gray at Footballguys.

Jene Bramel: Not really. We're just now starting to get enough data to use Clayton Gray's fantasy points against charts, which are helpful in pointing out matchups that aren't as good as you thought they might be and vice versa. I also like to look at the game logs on our player pages and find similar players that faced the same matchup for a player you're questioning for your current lineup. But weekly variance is a fact of life in football. You're going to err on close decisions. Otherwise, we'd all be millionaire sports bettors. Oftentimes, I'll make an effort to trade a couple of second tier guys for a clear every week starter even if it means overpaying a little just to rid myself of the frustration.

Bob Magaw: I'll do the impossible and try and limit myself to a few things...

One thing would be to exhort others to not limit yourself to one thing (attend to as many important factors you can think of when making lineup decisions)...

If forced to restrict to just a few factors most important... three words already mentioned above can have massive importance... TIME OF POSSESSION. Study this concept, understand it, apply it & win more.

Matchups are also huge. It is hoped in future FBG can amass more specific data about patterns and tendencies related to tracking points offenses allow to different IDP positions (broken down by team on offense and defense). This will create a better statistical/empirical foundation with which to extract broader principles and provide better data for feeding probability engines we try and make better and more accurate predictions with.