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Who Do I Keep? Keeper League Pre-Draft Strategy
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Posted 8/23 by Will Grant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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As draft day quickly approaches, keeper league owners need to designate which
players they want to retain from last season. This decision can set up a fantasy
owner to crush the competition before the draft even starts or put them so far
in to the hole that a 'perfect draft' may not even save them. Here's a simple
way to make that decision easy, and give you a huge jump start on the competition
for this season.
Note: For the purposes of this article, let's assume that each team in your
league has to protect three players. If you protect more or less than that,
simply adjust your calculations accordingly.
Step 1: Project Each Player's Average Draft
Round (ADR)
Your process begins with a game: Pretend that your league is really a redraft
league. Print out your current roster and the Footballguys.com cheatsheet that
matches your scoring system and lineup requirements. Using the overall column
from your cheatsheet and the number of teams in your league, try project which
round each player on your roster would be drafted in. For example: If Randy
Moss is ranked #28 on your cheatsheet, and your league has 12 teams, you can
project that Moss would be a 3rd round pick (3.04) if your league were a redraft
league. If Chad Johnson is ranked #17 on your cheat sheet, you can project that
he is worth a 2nd round pick (2.05). Do this for everyone on your roster, or
at least the ones would be drafted in the first five or six rounds. Not only
will this help you with your keeper list, but it will also give you an idea
of what players you might be able to trade.
Step 2: Select Your Initial Keeper List
This is the easy part. Take your list of players and order it from highest
round (round 1) to lowest, regardless of position. Now highlight the top three
guys as your initial keeper list. Don't worry if you overload at one position,
you can even it out in the draft or with trades. Consider these guys your 'worst
case' scenario and assume this would be your core team if the draft started
in 10 minutes.
In leagues that allow you to keep a flexible number of players, assume for
now that you will protect the maximum number allowed. If you league allows you
to protect up to five players, highlight your top five players. You can decide
if you really want to protect them in the next step.
Step 3: Evaluate and Adjust Your List
Now comes the hard part: determining if your list is any good. Start with the
three guys on your initial keeper list from step 2 above. If your top three
guys are all projected to go in the first three rounds, your team is in great
shape. Consider trading away some of your unprotected players for draft picks.
Remember that these guys are going to be cut loose, so anything that you can
gain in the draft would be better than letting them go for nothing. If your
roster has a lot of talent, try offering two of your good players to one of
the weaker teams in the league for one of their stronger players. The more players
that you can protect that are first or second round value, the stronger your
team will become before the draft even starts.
If you can't land stronger players to protect, but you still have a lot of
good players that you don't want to give up, try to move up in the regular draft.
Consider packaging a player and your 4th or 5th round pick for a 2nd or 3rd
round pick of another team. Remember, something is better than nothing in this
case. If you can swap a player that you were going to dump and move up two rounds
in the process, you really set yourself up for a strong draft. Not only do you
go in with three strong players, but you also front load as many draft picks
as possible, giving you the best available players to complement your team and
possibly finding you a keeper for next season.
If your potential keeper list has players that would not be drafted in the
first three rounds of a redraft league, you still have plenty of options. The
key is not to panic. If you protect a WR with a 4th round projection, at least
you know that your WRs are weak and you can address that in the draft. Don't
rush out to trade away your talented players or your high draft picks because
you have one or two weaker players. Use the draft and early free agency to turn
your team around.
You can also approach the stronger teams in your league and offer to swap mid
round draft picks for one of the players that they will have to cut loose. If
you can trade a 3rd round draft pick for a 5th round draft pick and a player
with third round redraft value, your team will be stronger and it won't cost
you a 1st round draft pick. The key here is not to give up too much. Negotiate
with the strong team using a 'something is better than nothing' approach. If
the other owner is asking too much, walk away and address your weaknesses in
the draft.
Step 4: Project Your First Two Picks
Once every team has announced their keepers, and the other players are thrown
back into the player pool, it's time to prepare for the draft. Using the cheatsheet
from Step 3, the initial rosters of each team and the initial draft order, try
to project how the first round or two of your keeper draft. You can bang out
24 picks in a couple of minutes, so try several different approaches to your
mock draft. (Best case scenario, worst-case scenario, rookie RB run, QB run,
that sort of thing.) See how many different ways that the first two rounds can
shake out. Each time you run a simulation, compare your roster with the cheatsheet
to see what your team needs are and who will be available at the time that you
pick. Are you week at RB and hoping that Reggie Bush will fall to you? Do you
have a bye week problem week 9 that you could address early by drafting a solid
WR who is off week 3? Your first two picks, combined with the keepers that you
retained from last season, will build your core team for this season and generate
the majority of the keepers that you'll use for next season as well. You can't
be too prepared at this point in the draft.
Step 5: Fill in the Gaps and Have FUN
Once you're into the third round of the draft, your team core is set. Settle
back, open a cold one, and clean up the place. With just a little prep time,
you've set yourself up for this season, given yourself a strong core to build
on for next season, and put yourself in a great position to dominate your league.
Enjoy the benefits of your work and start looking for a place to display your
championship trophy in January. Good luck!
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