Value Based Drafting (VBD) is our claim to fame here at Footballguys.com, and we strongly advocate using it throughout your fantasy draft. But are there times when VBD might not be the best solution to your current situation? Consider the following:

Imagine you are the coach of your favorite NFL team. It's the 4th quarter of a Monday night game and your team has the ball. You're winning 27-23 and you have the ball on your opponent's 15-yard line with just 1:57 left in the game. It's fourth and seven.

Conventional wisdom says to kick a FG and put more points on the board. But what will that give you? With a four-point lead, your opponent already needs a TD, and a seven- point lead won't guarantee you a victory if they score. However, if you float a pass into the end zone where your #1 WR can battle it out with a DB, you could end up scoring a TD and putting the game out of reach. Do you take a shot?

So how does this apply to your fantasy league? Simple. If you have dominated your draft, and you have solid depth at all of your key positions, you will probably have a draft pick or two to burn at the end. While the guppies in your league are drafting backup kickers and backup defenses, you have a couple different options.

Conventional wisdom suggests that you continue to follow the VBD model and draft players who will outperform their draft position. But what if you want to take a shot at the end zone? What if you want to wrap up the league championship in the last two minutes of the draft? Here are some suggestions for those of you want to go for it all.

Drafting Stud Backups

OK, I admit it. Drafting a backup to a stud running back isn't going to win you any popularity contests, but it could win you a championship. Ask anyone who had Larry Johnson or Donald Driver last season how bad they felt watching these guys take over for Priest Holmes and Javon Walker. Ask the guys who had Reuben Droughns or Muhsin Muhammad back in 2004. Sometime this season, a starter is going to go down to injury and a backup or lesser-ranked player is going to catapult to the top of the waiver wire list that week. If you have a draft pick or two to burn at the end of the draft, why not take a shot and target a player who would leap up the draft chart if the stud player were injured?

Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander are the consensus top three selections in this season's draft. So it goes without saying that their backups Michael Bennett, Michael Turner and Maurice Morris would be great candidates for this type of picks. In fact, most guys who are lucky enough to land one of the top three picks in the draft are smart enough to pick up their respective backup early. However, if you catch an owner waiting until the end of the draft to pick up a stud handcuff, feel free to snap up the backup a round or two early. At the minimum you'll generate some trade offers right out of the gate, and if not, you'll have a great candidate to explode of the starter goes down.
Other possible candidates for this type of pick include Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Moats, and Jerious Norwood.

Shaky Starters

Rex Grossman is the starting QB in Chicago right? Sure. Except his backup Brian Griese has more experience, more starts, more confidence and is having a great preseason compared to Grossman. Now the Chicago passing attack might not be the best place to put your fantasy hopes this season, but there are plenty of other offenses that are run by a QB looking over their shoulder. Rookie QBs are a good place to look for this type of picks, as Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler could all replace their starting counterparts before the season is over.

Other backups who could start if the #1 guys plays poorly include: Tony Romo, Patrick Ramsey, Jason Campbell and Andrew Walter.

Changing Of The Guard

Each year there are several starting WRs who fall just a little farther down the depth chart and eventually are overtaken by a younger guy who is hungry to play. Guys like Donte' Stallworth, Kevin Curtis and Lee Evans finished with more fantasy points that players like Joe Horn, Isaac Bruce and Eric Moulds who were ranked higher than they were in the preseason and who were higher on the depth chart as well. Injuries played a part in some cases, but there are always guys who are buried in the depth chart who are just bursting to get a chance once they are on the field. These guys are dirt cheap to draft but pay huge dividends when they finally get their shot.

Look at guys like Jerricho Cotchery, Vincent Jackson, and Greg Jennings to have a chance to move up on the depth chart and finish in front of other guys who will be taken well before the last rounds in your draft.

Everyone enters their fantasy draft with a 'sleeper pick' or two that they keep their eyes on throughout the draft. The problem is that many people have the same idea, and once someone snags their sleeper, they simply draft a backup QB or 6th WR and look to the waiver wire for their next big break. The key to realize here is that with a little research, you can walk in with five to ten 'sleeper' picks in your pocket, with plenty of options should the top two or three be taken before you get a chance to draft them. Who knows, your 'sleeper pick' might just get the right opportunity and turn that late round flyer pick into a championship caliber selection.