In recent years, with the increase of dynasty and keeper leagues, more and more fantasy players are looking for "long term investment" when they draft each season. But the question remains, how long do I keep a first rounder on the bench in hopes that he will finally come true? Larry Johnson anyone?

Objective: With that in mind, I wanted to look at the possible correlation of a player's NFL draft round, the probability that he will ever become an "elite" fantasy performer and the number of years (NFL experience) it took before he attained that status.

Setup: Beforehand, some specifications have to be explained. Here is the setup of the study:

1. I have looked at every QB/RB/WR/TE season from 1996 on
2. I have used the FBG scoring system
3. I assumed a 12 team league, starting requirement: 1QB / 2RB / 3WR / 1TE;

From this, I was able to define the "starter" category - defined as the 12QBs / 24RBs / 36WRs / 12TEs that scored the most points each year. Furthermore, I wanted to look at the "elite" players for each year. I chose to define it as the best 25% of starters. Thus, each year 3QBs / 6RBs / 9WRs / 3TEs have an elite season. This represents roughly the best 4.04% performances each year.

Example: In order to illustrate the way I have crunched the numbers (from www.pro-football-reference.com) - let's look at Corey Dillon's career so far:

From this, although we can see that Dillon's career has been stellar - he only attained the elite status in 2001 - where he ranked 6th amongst the RBs that particular year.
You can look at 2004 where Alexander, Barber, Tomlinson, Martin, Davis and James finished above him even though he had a wonderful season.

The results drawn from Dillon's career are that a 2nd round RB (43rd pick in 1997) has attained the elite status for the first time in his 5th year - and never re-attained it afterwards.

The Matrix

The table, for every position, is showing the number of elite status seasons, since 1996, by NFL draft round (vertically) and by NFL experience (horizontally);

Quarterbacks

Analysis

1. The most evident conclusion is that nearly half of the elite seasons (13 out of 30) came from QB that were selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft - Daunte Culpepper, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb account for a few of those seasons
2. Also, most of the elite seasons come for guys having less than 7 years of experience in the NFL (at the time of their elite season) - Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner helping in that category
3. Free agents and late picks gems can be found - Mark Brunell, Tom Brady and Jeff Garcia to name a few
4. Overall, QBs taken in the first 4 rounds of the draft are those that will survive in the NFL - but if they have not reached their potential prior to their 4th season, they never will

Notes / Outliers

1. Rich Gannon is really the only exception to the rule - recording 3 elite seasons after having played 10 seasons in the league
2. Peyton Manning was the only rookie ever to have ranked in the top 10 in 1998 where he came in 7th that year
3. Tim Couch, Joey Harrington, Chad Pennington, Akili Smith - being a 1st round pick helps a lot (as we have seen above) but it does not guarantee success.

Conclusions

When you draft a QB in a dynasty league - make sure he was selected in the 1st round of last year's draft - Charlie Frye, Matt Schaub and Bradie Croyle chances to become elite are very slim, as evidenced by the Chris Weinke, Chris Redman and Danny Wuerffel before them. Only few outliers: Tom Brady, Kurt Warner will enjoy success and they will be available after your dynasty draft. Grab a guy that's selected at the top of the draft (ala Carson Palmer, Eli Manning or Jay Cutler) and if he has not panned out after 4 seasons - drop him (if you have not done it already!), Kyle Boller is a good example.

Elite seasons

You will find the complete list of quarterbacks elite seasons since 1996 annexed to this document.

Running Backs

Analysis

1. This is the only position where players can contribute right off the bat, as shown by Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis and Mike Anderson
2. But, they don't last long, not more than 7 years - only Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin and Emmitt Smith enjoying elite status late in their careers
3. Over 50% of the elite seasons (33 out of 60) have come from 1st rounders - Shaun Alexander, James, LaDainian Tomlinson to name a few - Eddie George, Marshall Faulk, Deuce McAllister, Barry Sanders are others - grab the studs!
4. Being at the top is not long lived - Alexander, Terrell Davis, Faulk, Holmes and Tomlinson are the only one that enjoyed 3 straight elite seasons - and we all know that it can drop quickly after those years, just ask Terrell on the NFL Network;

Notes / Outliers

1. Davis and Holmes (6th round and free agent) are the only outside guys to have enjoyed any long term success
2. Terry Allen, a 9th rounder! finished 1st in 1996 and Jamal Anderson ended 2nd , as a 7th rounder in '98

Conclusions

Grab the young studs early, very early. They will help your team right off the bat (clearly the only position where this is possible) and you will have to turn your team over quickly. Look to ship Barber, James - even Alexander for very early dynasty draft picks and grab the next ones: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush and/or Adrian Peterson and be prepared to do the same with Portis and Tomlinson soon enough to continue the cycle with those that will after the immediate rookies. Don't wait until George, Green, Faulk, Dillon hit the wall to deal them - everyone knows that they're were/are cooked when approaching 10 years in the league. Always have plenty of young promising RBs and deal them, if needed, for even younger ones.

Elite seasons

You will find the complete list of running backs elite seasons since 1996 annexed to this document.

Wide Receivers

Analysis

1. Again, we clearly see that NFL 1st rounders have enjoyed most of the success - but contrary to the RBs, there are a few gems that can be commonly found in the second and third rounds: Anquan Boldin, Isaac Bruce, Chad Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Terrell Owens and Hines Ward are the best known of that bunch
2. Also, we can see that only 1st rounders have enjoyed a constant elite career, beyond the 9th or 10th NFL seasons: only Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison, Michael Irvin and Jerry Rice have accomplished that feat - we'll see if Owens and/or Derrick Mason can break this streak this year
3. The well known "Third year breakthrough theory" is validated by the table above - jumping from 5 to 15 elite seasons between the sophomore and junior years - that number being relatively stable afterwards: only Torry Holt and Randy Moss were able to breakthrough in their second season and keep that production level for a few years - Larry Fitzgerald can continue this trend this year - not surprisingly, all 1st rounders
4. Clearly, WR is the best position for elite longevity: Chris Carter, Harrison, Holt, Joe Horn, Moss and Owens enjoying at least 4 elite seasons, most of them in a consecutive manner

Notes / Outliers

1. Randy Moss is clearly a phenomenal talent - recording 17 TDs in his rookie season - the next closest total: Eddie Kennison, 9 in '96
2. Brown, Carter and Jerry Rice have enjoyed at least two elite seasons after having played for 10 years in the league - a scarcity that Joey Galloway and Harrison can accomplish this year

Conclusions

As with the other positions, a clear cut indication of success is the 1st round of the NFL draft - Fitzgerald, Harrison, Holt, Irvin, Moss, Rice - those guys didn't last long in the draft - nor should they in any Fantasy league. If Santonio Holmes doesn't excite you that much this year - in your next year's dynasty draft, be sure to pick one of Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Jarrett, Ted Ginn Jr or Jeff Samardzija (assuming the juniors declare for the draft). If you want to go out and grab a WR that lasted for a while at the draft - try and pick one with phenomenal talents from a lesser know school - Horn and Owens are good examples.

Elite seasons

You will find the complete list of wide receivers elite seasons since 1996 annexed to this document.

Tight Ends

Analysis

1. Elite tight ends enjoy Fantasy success pretty much from the beginning of their career, they were not drafted for the blocking abilities and are able to contribute after having learn their team schemes for a year: Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey and Jason Witten are examples
2. Most elite seasons come from guys that were drafted early: Gonzalez, Heap and Shockey are again present in that category
3. Not many tight ends from the 2nd, 3rd or 4th round have enjoyed a lot of success - if a guy was not highly touted, he's probably a blocking tight end

Notes / Outliers

1. Shannon Sharpe defied the common knowledge with 6 elite seasons from his 7th year in the league, the only player attaining that status other than Wesley Walls
2. Ben Coates was the only another guy that lasted long in the draft and had "experienced" success in the NFL.

Conclusions

Pass catching TEs help their teams early in their career and are usually drafted very early. Those that might step in this year are Ben Troupe, Ben Watson and/or Kellen Winslow Jr. No rookie TE have enjoyed much Fantasy success (other than Shockey in '02) this is why I wouldn't expect much from Vernon Davis before '07. Contributors can be found late: Antonio Gates, Coates and Sharpe are the best examples - they are the "converted physical freaks" oddities though. If your league requires you to start a TE (or offers premium for that position), grab a highly touted one early in your dynasty draft - if not, don't even bother.

Elite seasons

You will find the complete list of tight ends elite seasons since 1996 annexed to this document.

Overall conclusions

As we have seen with every position, NFL guys know their stuff (even though, we always seem to disagree on Sundays!) and the future NFL Fantasy elite players will come off the board early on the last weekend of April. Don't try to outsmart yourself by choosing with the 10th overall pick in your dynasty draft, the guy that just started to play WR for the Division III Semi-private Unknown State University Warriors that the Dolphins invited at their camp simply because he's 6'5", 215lbs and runs a 4.30 40. If the Dolphins didn't use a third round pick on him, nor should you. The best evidence of this is the chart below, listing the average fantasy ranking for each position, by NFL draft rank:

Clearly an upward slop, for every position, as a function of the NFL draft rank.

Also, rookies (other than for RBs) rarely help your Fantasy team - You need a long term plan when you draft Matt Leinart in your dynasty draft - You need him to be your 3rd QB for a while. Same goes for Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards and Cedric Benson or anyone drafted with the first 10 picks - they mostly will become studs - just don't expect them to do it in their first 20 NFL games.

Conversely, if your 1.06 pick of 4 years ago didn't pan out, he probably never will (just look at the chart for every position to convince yourself) - cut him loose, no prenuptial agreement required. Bye Kyle Boller, William Green, Michael Bennett, Rashaun Woods and Bryant Johnson.

Finally, since our initial question was "how long do I keep a first rounder on the bench in hopes that he will finally come true?" the answer is: not too long - a few years at the maximum. But, the more precise answer is "keep him on your bench a lot longer if he was drafted early in the NFL draft". As evidenced by all the chart in this article, there is a clear cut correlation between Fantasy elite status and draft rank. Give Kevin Jones and Michael Jenkins a break, don't do the same with Alvin Pearman and Mewelde Moore.

You will find the "elite season averages" at the end of the article - showing the average NFL draft rank, average NFL experience and the relative important statistics for every positions for all elite seasons - at the end of the annex.

Annexes

Quarterbacks elite seasons since 1996

Running backs elite seasons since 1996

Wide receivers elite seasons since 1996