|
Kick It Up A Notch
|
|
Posted 8/23 by Scott Conrad, Freelance Submission to Footballguys.com
|
I think there are a few good strategies to use when choosing a kicker. Some
people like to choose a kicker on a good offensive team. If they move the ball,
then you will get points. Then again, if the offense is too good, will you end
up without many field goals.
Another theory is to look at the defense. Look for a great defense paired with
an offense that struggles scoring touchdowns. This probably means that your
defense will set up the offense but the offense will settle for field goals.
A third theory is to look at the schedule. If your kicker kicks in a dome or
in nicer weather, then the cold winter won't affect his length and accuracy.
Or maybe you look at altitude? If you get bonus points for longer field goals,
should you look at the Denver kicker?
Which theory holds the most water? Or should you just draw a kicker out of
the hat as the last pick in your draft and not put any thought into it?
In 2002, the top kicker was Jay Feely. Atlanta's defense was #2 in causing
turnovers, its offense was #5 in points per game, and they played in a dome.
Akers was #2 with the 4th ranked defense (yardage), #5 defense for turnovers,
and #4 ranked offense. I would call that the ideal ratio. Then again, you had
Jeff Reed for Pittsburgh who had a defense at #7 (yardage) and #6 (turnovers)
and the number 9 offense in terms of points. How was he the 28th best kicker
in terms of points scored? Maybe it was his crappy field?
I decided to take ranks for each category (best defense yards/game, best defenses
at causing turnovers, best offense pts/game, and field conditions rank. For
field condition rank, I counted all domes as ranking number 1, good weather
places as having 8 (like Tampa), normal field conditions as having 16 (Kansas
City), and bad weather places as 24 (Buffalo) (or bad fields like Pitt and Cincy).
I then added up these ranks putting a little extra weight towards offensive
production.
For 2002, this worked relatively well. The top 5 kickers ended up with the
top 5 best scores. I would have expected Olindo Mare and Jeff Reed to do better
than they did. Adam Vinatieri outperformed his rank.
2002 Preseason Numbers
| Place Kicker |
FPTs Rk
|
YdsAll Rk
|
TO Rk
|
Off Rk
|
Fld Rk
|
Tot
|
| Sebastian Janikowski |
4
|
11
|
8
|
2
|
8
|
33
|
| Jay Feely |
1
|
19
|
2
|
5
|
1
|
37
|
| David Akers |
2
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
16
|
37
|
| John Carney |
3
|
27
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
40
|
| Ryan Longwell |
5
|
12
|
1
|
6
|
24
|
55
|
| Olindo Mare |
11
|
3
|
11
|
12
|
8
|
58
|
| Morten Andersen |
8
|
32
|
8
|
1
|
16
|
59
|
| Jeff Reed |
28
|
7
|
6
|
9
|
24
|
64
|
| Martin Gramatica |
5
|
1
|
3
|
18
|
8
|
66
|
| Jason Elam |
7
|
6
|
27
|
7
|
16
|
70
|
| Gary Anderson |
22
|
26
|
25
|
8
|
1
|
76
|
| Mike Vanderjagt |
16
|
8
|
18
|
17
|
1
|
78
|
| Joe Nedney |
12
|
10
|
13
|
13
|
16
|
78
|
| Jose Cortez |
24
|
14
|
18
|
14
|
8
|
82
|
| Rian Lindell |
14
|
28
|
11
|
16
|
1
|
88
|
| Adam Vinatieri |
8
|
23
|
13
|
10
|
24
|
90
|
| Mike Hollis |
10
|
15
|
30
|
11
|
24
|
102
|
| Jeff Wilkins |
21
|
13
|
21
|
23
|
1
|
104
|
| Phil Dawson |
17
|
21
|
13
|
19
|
16
|
107
|
| Shayne Graham |
30
|
2
|
7
|
28
|
16
|
109
|
| Matt Bryant |
13
|
9
|
22
|
21
|
16
|
110
|
| Matt Stover |
19
|
22
|
8
|
22
|
16
|
112
|
| Steve Christie |
23
|
30
|
18
|
20
|
8
|
116
|
| John Hall |
14
|
24
|
25
|
15
|
24
|
118
|
| Billy Cundiff |
28
|
18
|
13
|
29
|
8
|
126
|
| Jason Hanson |
17
|
31
|
24
|
24
|
1
|
128
|
| Bill Gramatica |
26
|
29
|
22
|
27
|
8
|
140
|
| Paul Edinger |
20
|
25
|
17
|
25
|
24
|
141
|
| Kris Brown |
27
|
16
|
28
|
30
|
8
|
142
|
| Neil Rackers |
25
|
17
|
29
|
26
|
24
|
148
|
For 2003, Wilkins, Vanderjagt, and Stover were right at the top where expected.
Elling of Minnesota and Todd Peterson of San Fran should have been near the
top and yet were far away. Maybe as young players, their coaches just didn't
trust them enough. Kasay and Akers were not expected to do as well as they did.
However, 4 of the top 5 fit the score.
2003 Preseason Numbers
| Place Kicker |
FPTs Rk
|
YdsAll Rk
|
TO Rk
|
Off Rk
|
Fld Rk
|
Tot
|
| Jeff Wilkins |
1
|
16
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
27
|
| Mike Vanderjagt |
2
|
11
|
12
|
2
|
1
|
30
|
| Matt Stover |
3
|
3
|
2
|
8
|
16
|
45
|
| Aaron Elling |
16
|
23
|
7
|
6
|
1
|
49
|
| Gary Anderson |
5
|
12
|
8
|
5
|
16
|
51
|
| Morten Andersen |
12
|
29
|
4
|
1
|
16
|
52
|
| Todd Peterson |
30
|
13
|
6
|
9
|
8
|
54
|
| Josh Brown |
9
|
19
|
14
|
7
|
1
|
55
|
| Ryan Longwell |
7
|
17
|
10
|
4
|
24
|
63
|
| Adam Vinatieri |
10
|
7
|
3
|
12
|
24
|
70
|
| Olindo Mare |
20
|
10
|
5
|
17
|
8
|
74
|
| Jason Elam |
6
|
4
|
28
|
10
|
16
|
78
|
| John Carney |
15
|
18
|
17
|
14
|
1
|
78
|
| Martin Gramatica |
26
|
5
|
9
|
19
|
8
|
79
|
| John Kasay |
4
|
8
|
18
|
15
|
16
|
87
|
| Billy Cundiff |
19
|
1
|
20
|
21
|
8
|
92
|
| David Akers |
8
|
20
|
19
|
11
|
24
|
96
|
| Jay Feely |
24
|
32
|
11
|
20
|
1
|
104
|
| Seth Marler |
23
|
6
|
16
|
25
|
8
|
105
|
| Shayne Graham |
11
|
28
|
23
|
13
|
16
|
106
|
| Jeff Reed |
18
|
9
|
21
|
18
|
24
|
108
|
| Steve Christie |
27
|
27
|
31
|
16
|
8
|
114
|
| John Hall |
17
|
25
|
13
|
22
|
16
|
120
|
| Jason Hanson |
22
|
24
|
15
|
27
|
1
|
121
|
| Doug Brien |
13
|
21
|
30
|
23
|
16
|
136
|
| Sebastian Janikowski |
21
|
30
|
22
|
26
|
8
|
138
|
| Paul Edinger |
14
|
14
|
29
|
24
|
24
|
139
|
| Phil Dawson |
29
|
15
|
25
|
28
|
16
|
140
|
| Rian Lindell |
28
|
2
|
32
|
30
|
24
|
148
|
| Kris Brown |
25
|
31
|
27
|
29
|
8
|
153
|
For 2004, the top 7 in my scoring system were all top 10 performers. It was
mostly incorrect about Longwell who is had a terrible defense and a field which
can have bad weather but did have a top 5 offense.
2004 Preseason Numbers
| Place Kicker |
FPTs Rk
|
YdsAll Rk
|
TO Rk
|
Off Rk
|
Fld Rk
|
Tot
|
| Mike Vanderjagt |
7
|
29
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
39
|
| Nate Kaeding |
10
|
18
|
9
|
3
|
8
|
47
|
| Adam Vinatieri |
1
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
24
|
52
|
| Rian Lindell |
8
|
2
|
1
|
7
|
24
|
55
|
| Jeff Reed |
3
|
1
|
11
|
11
|
16
|
72
|
| David Akers |
4
|
10
|
17
|
8
|
16
|
75
|
| Shayne Graham |
4
|
19
|
4
|
10
|
16
|
79
|
| Morten Andersen |
18
|
28
|
26
|
6
|
1
|
79
|
| Josh Brown |
11
|
26
|
6
|
12
|
1
|
81
|
| Jason Elam |
2
|
4
|
28
|
9
|
16
|
84
|
| Lawrence Tynes |
11
|
31
|
29
|
2
|
16
|
84
|
| John Kasay |
27
|
20
|
2
|
13
|
16
|
90
|
| Jay Feely |
20
|
14
|
12
|
16
|
1
|
91
|
| Doug Brien |
14
|
7
|
8
|
17
|
16
|
99
|
| John Carney |
15
|
32
|
10
|
14
|
1
|
99
|
| Matt Stover |
8
|
6
|
7
|
20
|
8
|
101
|
| Ryan Longwell |
6
|
25
|
32
|
5
|
24
|
101
|
| Gary Anderson |
25
|
27
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
118
|
| Jeff Wilkins |
24
|
17
|
31
|
19
|
1
|
125
|
| Kris Brown |
26
|
23
|
14
|
21
|
8
|
129
|
| Steve Christie |
18
|
13
|
18
|
22
|
16
|
135
|
| Neil Rackers |
20
|
12
|
13
|
26
|
8
|
137
|
| Sebastian Janikowski |
13
|
30
|
30
|
18
|
8
|
140
|
| Jason Hanson |
16
|
22
|
24
|
24
|
1
|
143
|
| Olindo Mare |
30
|
8
|
23
|
27
|
8
|
147
|
| Billy Cundiff |
23
|
16
|
25
|
25
|
8
|
149
|
| Josh Scobee |
22
|
11
|
21
|
29
|
8
|
156
|
| Phil Dawson |
16
|
15
|
19
|
28
|
16
|
162
|
| Todd Peterson |
28
|
24
|
27
|
30
|
8
|
179
|
| Paul Edinger |
29
|
21
|
16
|
32
|
24
|
189
|
For 2005, Vanderjagt had the most factors going for him and he ended up 6th.
It thought Josh Brown (Sea) and Josh Scobee (Jax) would have done better and
it did think Rackers would have had his great year. Of the top 7 scores, all
ended up in the top 9 of points (except Scobee).
2005 Preseason Numbers
| Place Kicker |
FPTs Rk
|
YdsAll Rk
|
TO Rk
|
Off Rk
|
Fld Rk
|
Tot
|
| Mike Vanderjagt |
6
|
5
|
7
|
2
|
1
|
19
|
| Shayne Graham |
3
|
10
|
1
|
4
|
16
|
39
|
| Lawrence Tynes |
4
|
9
|
8
|
6
|
16
|
51
|
| Josh Brown |
13
|
28
|
20
|
1
|
1
|
52
|
| John Kasay |
5
|
11
|
2
|
8
|
16
|
53
|
| Jason Elam |
9
|
13
|
3
|
7
|
16
|
53
|
| Jay Feely |
1
|
30
|
4
|
3
|
16
|
59
|
| Josh Scobee |
15
|
7
|
15
|
12
|
8
|
66
|
| Nate Kaeding |
12
|
17
|
28
|
5
|
8
|
68
|
| Jeff Reed |
8
|
16
|
12
|
9
|
16
|
71
|
| Jeff Wilkins |
7
|
20
|
18
|
11
|
1
|
72
|
| Todd Peterson |
17
|
18
|
14
|
14
|
1
|
75
|
| Neil Rackers |
2
|
1
|
21
|
17
|
8
|
81
|
| Matt Bryant |
24
|
4
|
11
|
20
|
8
|
83
|
| Paul Edinger |
16
|
23
|
5
|
19
|
1
|
86
|
| Olindo Mare |
14
|
31
|
10
|
16
|
8
|
97
|
| Adam Vinatieri |
20
|
14
|
31
|
10
|
24
|
99
|
| Rob Bironas |
21
|
6
|
27
|
21
|
16
|
112
|
| Jason Hanson |
28
|
19
|
9
|
28
|
1
|
113
|
| David Akers |
30
|
27
|
19
|
18
|
16
|
116
|
| Ryan Longwell |
27
|
8
|
26
|
22
|
24
|
124
|
| Matt Stover |
10
|
15
|
23
|
25
|
16
|
129
|
| Sebastian Janikowski |
26
|
24
|
30
|
23
|
8
|
131
|
| Rian Lindell |
11
|
25
|
13
|
24
|
24
|
134
|
| Robbie Gould |
29
|
26
|
6
|
26
|
24
|
134
|
| Kris Brown |
18
|
21
|
32
|
27
|
8
|
142
|
| John Carney |
23
|
3
|
29
|
31
|
24
|
149
|
| Mike Nugent |
25
|
29
|
17
|
29
|
16
|
149
|
| Joe Nedney |
22
|
32
|
24
|
30
|
8
|
154
|
| Phil Dawson |
19
|
22
|
25
|
32
|
16
|
159
|
So can we use this system to predict this coming year? I hope so or I did a
lot of work for nothing! Using the Football's projections, I ranked defenses
based on number of yards predicted and number of turnovers predicted. Then I
took the QB and RB projections and pulled out number of TDs predicted. I ranked
offenses based on this number. My numbers came out to these kickers with their
scores:
2006 Preseason Numbers
| Place Kicker |
FPTs Rk
|
YdsAll Rk
|
TO Rk
|
Off Rk
|
Fld Rk
|
Tot
|
| Adam Vinatieri / Ind |
7
|
7
|
15
|
3
|
1
|
32
|
| Jeff Reed / Pit |
3
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
16
|
40
|
| John Kasay / Car |
1
|
2
|
2
|
9
|
16
|
47
|
| Jason Elam / Den |
19
|
11
|
12
|
4
|
16
|
51
|
| Lawrence Tynes / KC |
24
|
11
|
24
|
1
|
16
|
54
|
| Josh Brown / Sea |
30
|
7
|
32
|
1
|
16
|
58
|
| Shayne Graham / Cin |
16
|
1
|
25
|
6
|
16
|
60
|
| Nate Kaeding / SD |
17
|
26
|
14
|
5
|
8
|
63
|
| Matt Bryant / TB |
4
|
11
|
1
|
15
|
8
|
65
|
| Jay Feely / NYG |
11
|
5
|
22
|
9
|
16
|
70
|
| Mike Vanderjagt / Dal |
12
|
23
|
10
|
11
|
8
|
74
|
| Michael Koenen / Atl |
13
|
11
|
20
|
16
|
1
|
80
|
| Josh Scobee / Jac |
6
|
11
|
6
|
19
|
8
|
82
|
| John Hall / Was |
9
|
19
|
9
|
13
|
16
|
83
|
| David Akers / Phi |
20
|
19
|
21
|
11
|
16
|
89
|
| Matt Stover / Bal |
5
|
7
|
5
|
21
|
16
|
91
|
| Ryan Longwell / Min |
14
|
5
|
17
|
23
|
1
|
92
|
| Olindo Mare / Mia |
18
|
11
|
18
|
19
|
8
|
94
|
| Stephen Gostkowski / NE |
29
|
28
|
26
|
6
|
24
|
96
|
| Jeff Wilkins / StL |
28
|
23
|
30
|
16
|
1
|
102
|
| Jason Hanson / Det |
21
|
11
|
23
|
23
|
1
|
104
|
| Sebastian Janikowski / Oak |
31
|
32
|
27
|
13
|
8
|
106
|
| Dave Rayner / GB |
10
|
28
|
8
|
16
|
24
|
108
|
| Neil Rackers / Ari |
8
|
22
|
7
|
26
|
8
|
115
|
| Robbie Gould / Chi |
2
|
3
|
4
|
29
|
24
|
118
|
| Mike Nugent / NYJ |
15
|
11
|
13
|
27
|
16
|
121
|
| Rob Bironas / Ten |
22
|
28
|
19
|
21
|
16
|
126
|
| John Carney / NO |
27
|
26
|
16
|
23
|
16
|
127
|
| Phil Dawson / Cle |
23
|
23
|
11
|
30
|
16
|
140
|
| Kris Brown / Hou |
32
|
31
|
31
|
27
|
8
|
151
|
| Joe Nedney / SF |
26
|
21
|
29
|
31
|
8
|
151
|
| Rian Lindell / Buf |
25
|
7
|
28
|
32
|
24
|
155
|
How does this list differ from Footballguys' kicker projections? My system
does not like Akers (neither offense or defense is top 10) and Stover (offense
is not top 20). It also likes Kaeding and Bryant more than FBGs. Then again,
I do not agree with their projections that Cincinnati will give up 500 more
yards than last year and that Pittsburgh has both a top 3 defense and a top
6 offense.
One final note, the Washington Redskins have had a top 30 kicker (yes THIRTY)
only once in the last 4 years. As a result, I would strongly recommend ignoring
their kicker!
| 
Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players