There are many drafting strategies involved in Fantasy Football. Some owners like to lock up a top quarterback early in the draft, while others prefer to wait until the middle rounds and then draft two or three in close proximity. Dynasty and keeper leagues may see an even wider variety of strategies being employed. But whatever your preference, you will likely end up with two or more starting quarterbacks on your team. There may be times when you face a tough decision on which player to start.

The purpose of this article is to compare the home and road performances of twenty of the most prominent starting quarterbacks for the coming season. Some weekly plays will be clearer than others. If one of your starters is playing a defense that is weak against the pass, it would be easy to start him. But what if your two main starters face similar strength of opposition? An extra few points could mean the difference between a win and a loss, so I am aiming to spot trends in order to help identify the weekly starter that has the most in their favor. Some of the results may surprise you.

The following data was largely obtained from the Footballguys Player Profiles and it shows the statistics from the last four seasons at home and on the road. The scoring is based on 1 point per 20 yards passing, 4 points per passing TD, 1 point per 10 yards rushing, 6 points per rushing TD and –1 point per interception thrown.

Manning’s figures have been slightly skewed in the last two seasons because the Colts have ended both seasons with meaningless games. In 2004, Manning played just one series in Week 17 at Denver. If he had played a full game, there would not have been a 5.2 points per game difference between home and road games that year. It would have been just over 2 points per game if he played an average game. Last year, Manning was used sparingly in the final two games. One was on the road and the other at home so they balance out, but it should be noted that his average points per game were artificially low because of that. His overall record sees very little difference in home or road games. In any case, he is so effective that you would not want to bench him against any opponent whether at home or on the road.

There seems to be slight increase in Brady’s fantasy numbers when he plays on the road. The Patriots have been dominant at home but are sometimes forced into chasing the game when on the road. Brady is far more efficient at home; boasting a healthy 50:13 TD/INT ratio. His road numbers are 55:41, but he has thrown for an additional 1354 yards in those games. Over four years, Brady has averaged 2 points per game more in road games.

Hasselbeck does not have an appreciable difference in his home and road numbers over the last four years. He has two seasons of producing bigger numbers on the road, but has recently balanced it with two strong home seasons.

McNabb had a 2.7 points per game road advantage in 2002, but those numbers are less reliable due to the six games he missed. 2003 showed very little difference at home or on the road, but his two most recent seasons show a big preference for home games. I will reserve judgement on McNabb as he has had success wherever he plays. The 1.9 points per game advantage in home games is not something I would rely on because it has not happened every year. He is a good start wherever he plays.

With just one point per game difference in Manning’s home and road performances, and with such a small sample size, I am not going to attempt to read anything into his production.

Bulger is another with an injury history, but I believe there is some useful information obtained within his limited appearances. His 2002 road performances can be ignored as he only played one full game and attempted one pass in the other. What really stands out over the last four seasons is the TD/INT ratio. Bulger is 44:21 in home games but is only 27:30 when on the road. An average of 18.9 points per game on the road is still good for fantasy purposes, but he is even better at home, averaging 2.6 points per game more. If your league rewards TDs more heavily, or subtracts more points for interceptions, be aware of the difference in Bulger’s performances.

Bledsoe is another that tends to perform better in home games. His 40:20 TD/INT ratio is impressive, but road games have not been so productive at 38:40. He has also thrown for more yardage at home. Bledsoe averages an extra 2.2 points per game when at home, and 4.6 points higher in his first year with the Cowboys.

Delhomme was far more productive at home during the 2003 season, and that may have had something to do with it being his first full year as the starter. The last two years have seen him put up very similar numbers whether at home or on the road.

Palmer has not started many games thus far, and his performances look fairly balanced.

Plummer saw similar production at home and on the road during his last season in Arizona, but there has been a significant change since he was acquired by Denver. Even allowing for the 2002 season, Plummer still shows a distinct preference for playing at home. His home TD/INT ratio of 45:23 is a lot different from his 33:31 on the road. He also tends to gain a lot more yardage at home. This all leads to a big difference in fantasy points, and Plummer averages 3.5 points per game more when he plays at home.

Green is another that is far more efficient at home, boasting a 50:20 TD/INT ratio. His road games see that drop to 44:32, but he throws for more yardage. The overall result is that there is very little difference between Green’s home and road fantasy points totals.

Michael Vick is one of the hardest players to predict from one week to the next. The main reason is that he relies so much on his rushing ability. It is hard to judge when Vick will run in a TD. He did well in 2002 but his road totals were boosted by 440 yards rushing and 6 TDs. He was hurt for most of 2003. The last two years have seen Vick perform much better when he is at home. He has run in 9 TDs in the last 15 home games, compared to none on the road over the same period. So while his overall numbers show that he averages an extra 1.9 points per game at home, that figure is around 4 points per game over the last two seasons. I would feel much happier starting Vick if he were playing at home.

Brooks has been very efficient on the road, and has a 44:23 TD/INT ratio  in those games. That is significantly better than in his home games but overall his fantasy points totals are similar whatever the venue.

Roethlisberger performed better on the road in 2004, and significantly better at home in 2005. But the number of games played is too small to draw any definite conclusions as yet.

Brees will have a new home this year, but while with the Chargers he performed better at home in three of his four seasons. Last season saw him average 5.2 more points in home games. His overall record shows a 2.7 points per game advantage when he is playing at home.

Favre’s statistics show that he played much better in road games in 2002 and 2003. But over the last two seasons, he has been more effective when playing at home. The last four years show that he has averaged an extra 2.6 points per game when playing on the road. That seemed unusual so I dug deeper and looked at his entire career. I found that he averaged 19.7 points per game at home, and 19.6 when on the road. So I would say that there is very little difference in performance overall.

Warner has been either hurt or benched for much of the last four years. Even with the small sample size it seems that there is very little difference in his performances. I would not draw any conclusions from this data.

In three of the last four seasons, Culpepper has produced more fantasy points when on the road. His 2004 season showed an incredible difference of 6.2 points per game and he threw for 2678 yards and 23 TDs in his eight road games. Last season was cut short by injury, but he was scoring more than double the fantasy points in his few home games. Overall, he seems to favor road games but I would simply watch him this year as he is with a new team and will be trying to come back from an injury.

Leftwich has scored more points at home every year since he joined the league in 2003. His first year showed the biggest variance, perhaps because he was playing as a rookie and felt more comfortable in a familiar situation. The last two years have seen the gap narrow but he is still clearly a better start when playing at home. His overall career shows that he averages an extra 2.7 points per game at home.

Carr began his career with two seasons in which his road production was much higher than his home production. The last two years have seen exactly the opposite. His overall figures give him a 2.4 points per game advantage in home games, but his 14.7 average makes him a weak start in any case.

Conclusions

The top quarterbacks each season will usually average around 20 points per start. The objective is to get within two or three points of that number if possible. That is somewhat easier if you are starting a top five performer, but it is also possible using a committee if the correct opponents are targeted.

Peyton Manning averages over 21 points per game whether at home or on the road. He should be started unless it is clear that the Colts have clinched their best possible playoff position and plan to sit him early.

Daunte Culpepper also has a great average and has exceeded 20 points per game at home and on the road apart from his four home games in 2005. The two big questions are will he be healthy and what effect will changing teams have on his production? Those doubts aside, Culpepper is a proven performer. Chris Chambers will probably not make up for the loss of Randy Moss, but he is certainly a capable target.

Donovan McNabb is the only other quarterback to have averaged over 20 points over the four year period in both road and home games. Some will be wary of him with Terrell Owens gone, but his 2002 season proves that he is capable of good production without a star receiver.

Marc Bulger has played very well in home games and has averaged 21.5 points in 24 starts. I would be very confident starting him against any opponent at home. The Rams have an excellent receiving corps. The only slight doubt is whether Linehan will change things enough to affect Bulger, but Culpepper certainly thrived in his system so I am not too worried. Although Bulger is far less effective on the road in terms of TD/INT ratio, he still averages 18.9 points and should be started. Bulger’s points per game averages make him a great start when healthy. He would be ranked a lot higher if he were projected to last a full 16 games.

Tom Brady is the odd man out. He averages a full 2 points more when on the road. That is probably partially due to the dominance the Patriots have shown at home, and the ability of the running game to kill the clock late in the game. Brady is still a good start at home, but be aware that his production may suffer unless the Patriots have a challenging opponent.

I would suggest using quarterbacks in the following situations if possible.

Home

Elite Starts

Peyton Manning (average 21.2 points)

Donovan McNabb (22.3 average but Owens gone)

Marc Bulger (21.5 average)

Carson Palmer (18.5 average but still improving, rehabbing from an injury)

Good Starts Against The Appropriate Opponent

Daunte Culpepper (22.6 average, changed teams, lost Moss, recovering from a serious injury)

Michael Vick (19.6 average)

Trent Green (19.0 average)

Matt Hasselbeck (18.3 average)

Tom Brady (17.3 average, often sees less production at home)

Eli Manning (15.1 average but can be expected to keep improving)

Drew Bledsoe (16.7 average but Owens should provide a spark)

Aaron Brooks (18.1 average, new team, now has Randy Moss to throw to)

Kurt Warner (18.1 average)

Jake Delhomme (17.0 average, Keyshawn Johnson will be another target in 2006)

Jake Plummer (19.0 average and Walker added)

Drew Brees (17.6 average, new team, recovering from injury)

Brett Favre (16.2 average but has done better over his whole career)

Less Than Ideal Starts

Ben Roethlisberger (16.1 average but 18.1 in 2005, recovering from injury)

Byron Leftwich (16.6 average, lost Jimmy Smith)

David Carr (14.7 average, Moulds added, new offense)

Road

Elite Starts

Peyton Manning (21.3 average)

Donovan McNabb (20.4 average)

Tom Brady (19.3 average, 2 points more than in home games)

Marc Bulger (18.9 average)

Carson Palmer (17.9 average)

Good Starts Against The Appropriate Opponent

Daunte Culpepper (24.0 average)

Trent Green (18.5 average)

Matt Hasselbeck (18.1 average)

Eli Manning (14.1 average but 19.6 in 2005)

Brett Favre (18.8 average)

Aaron Brooks (18.7 average)

Michael Vick (17.7 average)

Kurt Warner (16.8 average)

Drew Bledsoe (14.5 average)

Less Than Ideal Starts

Jake Delhomme (16.3 average)

Jake Plummer (15.5 average, 3.5 less than in home games)

Drew Brees (14.9 average)

Ben Roethlisberger (14.4 average)

Byron Leftwich (13.9 average, 2.7 less than in home games)

David Carr (12.3 average)

I hope this article helps you identify the best possible starter for your team. A point or two could be the difference, so be aware of the trends.