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Eyes of the Guru - Week 1
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Posted 9/6 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Welcome to the Eyes of the Guru weekly IDP
report. This column will touch on anything from injury pickups to important
match up notes. If I see something that can have an effect on the IDP side of
the game I'll pass along the news and my best interpretation of what effect its
likely to have. The EOTG will appear on Thursday in most instances but I do my
best to have it done in time for Wednesday evening posting when there are
Thursday games. There is a lot to cover this week so lets get to it.
Arizona Cardinals
Over the past couple of years we have heard the Cardinals coaches say how much
they like Gerald Hayes but he's never been on the field enough for the rest of
us to see it. I had never been very high on him in the past but after paying
particularly close attention to a healthy Hayes during the pre-season, my
opinion has changed. He's 253 pounds, plays physical against the run and is
surprisingly strong in coverage. In pre-season action he was seemingly in on or
near every tackle that happened within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Hayes
has struggled with injuries for the past three years but comes out of the
pre-season healthy for the first time in his career. I can't help thinking of
Keith Brooking when I watch Hayes. Brooking spent much of the early part of his
career in the trainers room or on IR but has been a perennial top 15 guy for the
past few years. Don't wait until after week one to try and pick Hayes up or you
are going to have a lot of competition for his services. .. Calvin Pace has
settled in as the starter on the strong side which pretty much ensures that
Karlos Dansby will make the move to WLB when he returns. He is expected to
practice this week after sitting out the entire pre-season with a toe injury.
Toe problems are often slow healing and Dansby's was apparently pretty serious
even though it didn't require surgery. This could be a problem for him all
season and as such could seriously hamper his box score production. Chances are
he won't play full time right out of the gate and there is no guarantee he'll
even play at all in the first couple of games. There are two very important
factors that we need to watch here. The first obviously being Dansby's health,
the second being what the club does with their linebackers in nickel and dime
packages. Throughout the preseason Hayes remained on the field full time and
worked with James Darling in the nickel package. A healthy Dansby would likely
be the team's best cover LB and should replace someone. The question being who?
If everyone is 100% I would expect to see Hayes and Dansby in the nickel with
Dansby in the dime. Only time will tell... For those in leagues that require
corners Antrell Rolle is looking strong. He's showing no ill effects of last
year's injury. In the third pre-season contest when team play their starters the
most, Rolle tallied 5 tackles and a pick in about two and a half quarters of
action.
Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy owners got off the Demorrio Williams bandwagon over the off-season like
it was a sinking ship. The few who weren't in such a hurry just might have the
last laugh. No one made a big deal of the news that hit on August 28th about Ed
Hartwell having "minor surgery" on both of his knees. When it's a week before
the regular season opener there is no such thing as "minor surgery". The Falcons
reportedly have not ruled Hartwell out for the opener just yet but the initial
reports were that he could miss 2-4 weeks of action. Last season it was an
injury to Hartwell that opened the door for Williams. In that situation Keith
Brooking was moved inside while Williams took over at WLB and went on to have a
huge season. The Falcons didn't play their starters in the final pre-season game
so we can't use it to get a read on what they will do if Hartwell doesn't play
but four weeks from the time of the surgery would be the end of September, three
weeks into the regular season. This could become a significant situation and we
need to keep an eye on it... Don't underestimate the effect that the addition of
Grady Jackson will have on the Falcons DL. He is a huge road grader who will
command double teams on a regular basis. Jackson doesn't have great fantasy
potential but he certainly be a plus for Rod Coleman and John Abraham who play
beside him.
Buffalo Bills
Takeo Spikes made his '06 debut late in the pre-season and made a tackle on his
very first snap. Spikes has proclaimed himself 100% healthy but that doesn't
shed any light on what we can expect from the box score breakdown. Until we see
who lines up in the nickel package, both Spikes and Angelo Crowell are very
risky starts... The injury that kept Matt Bowen out for much of the pre-season
allowed Donte Whitner to work with the first team on a full time basis and
solidify himself as the opening day starter at SS. Prior to Bowen's injury there
was some speculation that he would take a few situational snaps away from the
rookie but at this point it looks like Whitner will be the guy in every
situation.
Carolina Panthers
With the release of Keith Adams the competition at WLB has been narrowed to
Na'il Diggs and rookie James Anderson. Diggs was actually named the starter a
couple of weeks back but a knee sprain may have sidetracked that plan. Diggs
missed 9 games with injury over the past two seasons including 7 last year with
a similar injury. He is officially day to day heading toward the opener which
doesn't sound very promising. The coaching staff likes Anderson and believes he
may be the long term replacement for Will Witherspoon. Experience factored
heavily in the original decision to go with Diggs but if Anderson gets an
opportunity it may be tough for Diggs to get back on the field. The Panthers WLB
position has never been exceptionally productive but it if Anderson gets the
call and plays well, he may be worth picking up.
Chicago Bears
SS Mike Brown skipped most of the pre-season while resting a sore Achilles but
he has returned to practice and is expected to start in the opener. The Bears SS
is a box score goldmine so if Brown can stay healthy he should be a top 10 DB.
Staying healthy has been a problem for him recently so tuck this away in your
memory bank. While Brown was out Chris Harris moved over to SS with rookie
Danieal Manning taking over at FS. If Brown's injury flares up, don't hesitate
to leap on Harris.
Cleveland Browns
Many of us picked up Sean Jones and/or Brodney Pool late in our drafts figuring
we had at least a 50/50 shot at having the Browns starting SS. Jones has held
the title of starter since late in training camp but Pool was given a chance to
work with the first team in the
third pre-season game and played very well. So well in fact that Romeo Crennel had this to say "Sean still had a slight edge but he (Pool) made
the battle closer. All of those guys are going to play. It's like I have three
starters there". The third guy being Brian Russell. Russell missed the
final pre-season contest with an elbow injury. In that contest Jones started at
FS with Pool at SS. I've said all along that
Russell could end up the odd man out here and he is questionable for week one
with the injury. There is still a real chance that this could end up being a 3 man rotation, probably based on the various defensive packages. This
would be the IDP equivalent to running back by committee. There is a lot of box score
potential here so if you have Jones and/or Pool, sit on them for a couple of
games and see how it pans out... D'Quell Jackson got the majority of the the
work with the first unit over the first three preseason games while his
competition for the ILB job (Chaun Thompson) was held back by a calf injury.
Thompson returned to action late in August and quickly closed the gap until he
earned a start in the final pre-season contest. The Browns have not announced
who will start the opener but my money is on Thompson at this point.
Dallas Cowboys
When Bobby Carpenter was drafted in round one this year everyone anointed him
the starter opposite Demarcus Ware at OLB. Everyone except the Dallas coaching
staff that is. Carpenter worked at OLB for a while but has now been settled in
at ILB. For the past few weeks he's been working behind Akinola Ayodele at the
right inside linebacker position. Carpenter is likely the long term answer at
one of the ILB positions but may not get the call for a while yet. Ayodele has
played pretty well, maybe even better than Bradie James. The bottom line here is
that we need to keep a sharp eye on this situation. Parcells likes dominating
play from his linebackers and thus far he hasn't gotten it from the ILB
positions. Sooner or later he will want to see if Carpenter can provide it.
Carpenter did see some work with the first team during the final pre-season
game... Keith Davis is at the top of the depth chart at FS but he's been
sidelined with an injury. Meanwhile rookie Pat Watkins has been making an
impression on the coaching staff. It looks like he will get the call in the
opener at least and may have a shot at keeping the job... Greg Ellis and
Demarcus Ware were the starters but Kevin Burnett saw extensive action at OLB
against Minnesota. It looks like the club may play all three of their outside
linebackers on a rotation basis.
Detroit Lions
It's only a few days before the season opener and the Lions LB situation is no
more clear than it was a month ago. Teddy Lehman will open the season on the PUP
list so he is out until at least week 6 and may be headed to IR at that point.
Boss Bailey was activated from the PUP on August first and inserted at MLB. That
lasted just a few days before hamstring and then ankle injuries struck and kept
him out of the starting lineup for the remainder of the pre-season. Bailey saw a
little action during the final pre-season contest but his appearance was short
and didn't come with the starters. The Lions were forced to go with Paris Lenon
at MLB and Alex Lewis at SLB leaving rookie Ernie Sims as the only "starter" to
work with the rest of the first team defense. Bailey will likely be active for
week one but there is no word about his role. At this point we should play the
"show me" game with Bailey. Show me that you will be productive and I'll pick
you up... One important note that hasn't been talked about much is the fact that
DE Kalimba Edwards worked as a starter in the final two pre-season contests.
Cory Redding missed multiple practices during August reporting an array of
injuries that included groin, hamstring, rib and wrist problems. The injuries
undoubtedly contributed to the additional playing time for Edwards but he is a
far superior pass rusher and in the new scheme, may prove a better full time
option at the position. Meanwhile Redding could see a lot more playing time at
tackle. It's another situation to watch this weekend.
Green Bay Packers
The announcement that Brady Poppinga has won the starting job at SLB doesn't
carry much fantasy impact in its own rite but it does pretty much signal the end
of speculation about Nick Barnett being moved over to make room for Abdul Hodge.
Barnett let it be known early on that he was not a fan of the idea and he was
never asked to take a snap on the strong side. All that remains to be seen now
is how much impact AJ Hawk will have on the box score distribution... Keep an
eye on rookie SS Tyrone Culver. He saw a lot of playing time with the first team
during the pre-season while Marquand Manuel was banged up, and made a good
impression. There is speculation that he could be the long term answer at the
position so if the season goes south for the Packers or if Manuel continues to
struggle with the calf injury, Culver could get a lot of playing time at a
position that has traditionally been very fantasy friendly.
Indianapolis Colts
Looking for a sleeper or a taxi squad addition at DB? Consider rookie SS Antoine
Bethea. Mike Doss sat out basically the entire pre-season with a calf injury
allowing Bethea to get on the field a lot and he certainly made the most of the
opportunity. Bethea started the second pre-season game and made a strong
impression when he led the club in tackles with a 7-1-0. In pre-season week 3
the Colts took a look at their other rookie safety Matt Giordano at SS but he
failed to impress. In that game Bethea came off the bench to go 1-2-0 but made
an impressive interception. In the final pre-season contest Bethea was back with
the starters where he again led the team in tackles with a 5-1-0 and forced a
fumble. Doss returned to practice this week and is expected to play on Sunday
but as of Monday Bethea was still working with the starters. Doss has a long
history of being banged up and has yet to play a full schedule in his three pro
seasons. Even when healthy he's fallen well short of expectations. If you have
the roster space take a look at the kid.
New England Patriots
The addition of Junior Seau was absolutely huge for a Patriots club that was
very thin at linebacker. He's a major improvement over Monty Beisel who was
subsequently sent packing. Prior to the Seau addition the club was so thin at
the position that they were reportedly considering a 4-3 base defense. The
outlook is much brighter now that Junior is on board and Tedy Bruschi is
expected to be available for week one. All we need to know now is who will line
up where? A healthy Bruschi is a lock at left ILB as is Rosevelt Colvin at right
OLB. Seau has been working at right ILB since joining the team and is likely to
get the starting nod there which would allow Mike Vrabel to move back outside
sending Tully Banta-Cain to the bench. Don't expect a lot of production from
Seau. The RILB is generally the less productive of the inside positions and Seau
hasn't been working in the nickel package. If Bruschi doesn't play look for
Vrabel to move inside and Banta-Cain to get the call... One thing we can count
on with New England is that everyone will have a role but no one will have
enough of a role to be a stellar fantasy option. The only exception to that rule
in the past has been Rodney Harrison. Coming of major knee reconstruction it's
amazing that Harrison will even be in uniform but he is expected to start. That
said, I'll believe he is healthy when I see him produce. With that in mind, it
would be a big risk to have Harrison in your opening day lineup.
New Orleans Saints
Many were surprised when the Raiders outright released Danny Clark but it came
as no surprise that the linebacker needy Saints plucked him off the waiver wire.
The club will likely give Alfred Fincher a chance to prove himself over the
first week or two while Clark gets used to the scheme but Fincher had better
make good use of the opportunity or we will see Clark at MLB by week three. He's
not a great player by any stretch but Clark may well be the best option of a
very questionable group. He helped the Raiders get by for a couple of years
until they could address the position and he can do the same for New Orleans.
Clark is a hard working smart football player who gets the most of what talent
he has. He is a team player and a positive locker room presence that the club
needs desperately. Clark led the Raiders in tackles two years ago and he could
do the same for the Saints. If you are in need at the position or if you are
sitting on Fincher, it would be a good idea to grab Clark and sit tight for a
couple of weeks... The safety situation became much more clear over the final
two pre-season game. Josh Bullocks has shifted to FS with rookie Roman Harper
stepping into the SS position and Bryan Scott serving at the top backup to both.
This is the way the Saints opened each of the last two preseason games and any
questions were put to rest with the release of Jay Bellamy. Harper doesn't bring
a lot of fan fare and didn't do anything to draw a bunch of attention to himself
during the pre-season. He did however manage to quietly play solid football and
made very few mistakes. The Saints SS position has traditionally been a
productive one and with the situation at LB it would be no surprise to see
Harper lead the club in tackles. He's flying under the radar right now so grab
him if you can... The Saints parted ways with Darren Howard which finally gives
Will Smith the opportunity he deserves. As Smith steps up the ladder the role he
previously held will fall to surprising rookie Rob Ninkovich. The Saints seem to
have found a gem in this 5th round pick who has been nothing short of impressive
during the pre-season. In the last three games he racked up 14 solo tackles, 3
sacks and forced 2 fumbles. He likely won't get enough playing time to be a
serious fantasy factor this year but if Smith or Charles Grant are injured, leap
on this guy.
New York Giants
Carlos Emmons is 33 years old and has been unable to stay out of the trainers
room this summer. LaVar Arrington is expected to start week one but is still not
100% recovered from his knee problem and Brandon Short was limited to one
practice a day during training camp due to a sore knee. All this has opened the
door for third round pick Gerris Wilkinson. The rookie has turned heads all
summer and got the call to start the all important 3rd preseason game. He and
Short have both seen extensive action at WLB and Emmons managed to play in the
final warm up game. The club has yet to announce who will get the call in week 1
but the general consensus is that Wilkinson is the long term answer. In the end
Short is more suited to backup LaVar Arrington at SLB and Emmons is a short
timer at best.
San Diego Chargers
If your scoring system is weighted toward sack production and quality 3-4
outside linebackers have a lot of value, don't hesitate to snatch up Shaun
Phillips. Most of the media is spinning the story that the loss of Steve Foley
is some sort of huge blow to the Chargers and they are going to be forced to
turn to this young unproven Phillips guy yadda yadda. Apparently they weren't
paying attention last season when Phillips replaced an injured Foley and racked
up 7 sacks while playing very well. The Chargers already considered Phillips the
eventual replacement for Foley and he would likely have been starting by next
season anyway. The loss of Foley does create a depth problem for the Bolts as
the next guy in line at this point is either second year undrafted free agent
Marques Harris or transplanted inside linebacker Carlos Polk. From the fantasy
perspective the direct effect will be that neither Phillips nor Shawn Merriman
are going to get many plays off. Phillips and Foley combined to go 61-12-11.5
last season and the majority of that production will now fall to Phillips... The
safety situation has been resolved and it turned out basically as expected.
Terrence Kiel will retain the SS job and free agent addition Marlon McCree will
get the call at FS. Kiel played gimpy much of last season but prior to the
injury he was very productive. In fact he tallied 31-2-1 over the first 4 games
in '05 and was on pace for a monster season when he was hurt.
That about does it for week one. Best of luck
to everyone this week!
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