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Projection Tweaks Explained
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Updated 8/29 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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In order to understand more why we are moving people up and down, we offer the following explanation. This is a comprehensive list on all movement +/- 5 fantasy points for players that project to have at least 40 FP this season. These are the changes made since 8/21 (sorted by FP moved).
Sorted by Overall Draft Position
| Pos |
Name |
Team |
New FP |
Old FP |
Diff |
Reason |
| RB |
Portis, Clinton |
Was |
194.2 |
134.3 |
59.9 |
Overstated
Duckett trade and Portis injury before. |
| RB |
Buckhalter, Correll |
Phi |
76.5 |
22.3 |
54.2 |
Has emerged as big back behind Westbrook |
| RB |
Blaylock, Derrick |
NYJ |
76.0 |
39.8 |
36.2 |
Has surpassed Houston for carries. |
| WR |
Henderson, Devery |
NO |
72.8 |
38.2 |
34.6 |
Steps into the #2 role. |
| RB |
Harrison, Jerome |
Cle |
54.5 |
21.9 |
32.6 |
Has shown play-making ability in preseason. |
| QB |
Pennington, Chad |
NYJ |
201.6 |
170.6 |
31.0 |
Has won the starting job. |
| RB |
Toefield, Labrandon |
Jac |
47.6 |
19.4 |
28.2 |
Should get some goal work. |
| TE |
Conwell, Ernie |
NO |
45.6 |
18.5 |
27.1 |
Bigger role in offense post-Stallworth. |
| WR |
McCareins, Justin |
NYJ |
47.7 |
20.9 |
26.8 |
Back from death. |
| WR |
Brown, Troy |
NE |
59.0 |
33.3 |
25.7 |
Veteran will be needed if Branch does not return. |
| RB |
Drew, Maurice |
Jac |
56.8 |
31.1 |
25.7 |
Picks up the slack created by loss of Greg Jones. |
| QB |
Palmer, Carson |
Cin |
268.1 |
242.7 |
25.4 |
Looked very sharp |
| RB |
Lundy, Wali |
Hou |
85.0 |
61.0 |
24.0 |
Now the starting RB. Huge upside if Davis does not return. |
| RB |
Brown, Chris |
Ten |
126.9 |
103.4 |
23.5 |
Best runner on Titans right now. |
| QB |
Simms, Chris |
TB |
254.0 |
231.1 |
22.9 |
Playing very good. His
receivers and coach believe. |
| QB |
Culpepper, Daunte |
Mia |
278.9 |
257.5 |
21.4 |
No issues with injury. |
| QB |
Grossman, Rex |
Chi |
76.8 |
55.8 |
21.1 |
Still starter somehow. |
| RB |
Taylor, Fred |
Jac |
134.3 |
114.7 |
19.6 |
Increased workload without Greg Jones around. |
| WR |
Edwards, Braylon |
Cle |
109.6 |
90.2 |
19.4 |
Medical miracle. I'm
not betting against him. |
| WR |
Jennings, Greg |
GB |
73.9 |
57.0 |
16.9 |
Now the #2 WR. |
| QB |
Losman, J.P. |
Buf |
144.5 |
129.5 |
15.0 |
Has locked up the starting job for now. |
| RB |
Green, Ahman |
GB |
137.5 |
123.1 |
14.4 |
Looking very good.Could surprise this year. |
| RB |
McAllister, Deuce |
NO |
138.9 |
125.1 |
13.8 |
Looking good despite ACL surgery. |
| WR |
Glenn, Terry |
Dal |
140.3 |
126.8 |
13.5 |
On a mission this preseason.In mid-season form. |
| QB |
McNabb, Donovan |
Phi |
297.7 |
284.3 |
13.4 |
Stallworth gives him legitimate WRs now. |
| WR |
Clayton, Michael |
TB |
134.0 |
120.7 |
13.3 |
Rebounding nicely from injury year. |
| WR |
Horn, Joe |
NO |
130.8 |
118.1 |
12.7 |
Clear #1 WR now. |
| WR |
Price, Peerless |
Buf |
76.9 |
64.4 |
12.5 |
Emerged as #2 WR. |
| RB |
Norwood, Jerious |
Atl |
83.1 |
72.5 |
10.6 |
Kid has another gear.Backup now that Duckett is gone. |
| RB |
Rhodes, Dominic |
Ind |
150.8 |
141.5 |
9.3 |
Distancing himself from Addai. |
| RB |
McGahee, Willis |
Buf |
199.5 |
190.3 |
9.2 |
Has looked solid.Increased TDs. |
| WR |
Wayne, Reggie |
Ind |
174.4 |
165.4 |
9.0 |
Playing at avery high
level right now. |
| WR |
Driver, Donald |
GB |
170.1 |
161.4 |
8.7 |
Offense is going to run through him. |
| WR |
Evans, Lee |
Buf |
136.4 |
128.2 |
8.2 |
Legitimate homerun threat in every game. |
| QB |
Manning, Peyton |
Ind |
325.3 |
317.3 |
8.0 |
Looks very sharp in preseason.Increased TDs by 2. |
| RB |
Harris, Arlen |
Det |
50.4 |
42.4 |
8.0 |
Will get some looks as #2 RB in Detroit. |
| TE |
Smith, Alex |
TB |
74.3 |
66.6 |
7.7 |
HC Gruden plans to feature him more. |
| RB |
Jordan, Lamont |
Oak |
203.7 |
196.0 |
7.7 |
Finally looked OK in a game. |
| RB |
Alstott, Mike |
TB |
66.2 |
58.6 |
7.6 |
Goal line vulture. |
| RB |
Dunn, Warrick |
Atl |
184.3 |
176.8 |
7.5 |
Increased role at goal line. |
| RB |
Barber, Marion |
Dal |
116.1 |
108.6 |
7.5 |
Third down + hot back possibilities. |
| TE |
Watson, Ben |
NE |
98.0 |
90.8 |
7.2 |
Wow. He is on a
mission. |
| WR |
Jackson, Chad |
NE |
73.8 |
66.7 |
7.1 |
Could get on the field soon if Branch leaves. |
| RB |
Barlow, Kevan |
NYJ |
114.1 |
107.3 |
6.8 |
Should be #1 back eventually. |
| WR |
Taylor, Travis |
Min |
104.7 |
98.0 |
6.7 |
Piossibly the #1 WR with the Vikings. |
| RB |
Gore, Frank |
SF |
168.0 |
161.7 |
6.3 |
Barlow is out and Gore looks ready. |
| TE |
Anderson, Courtney |
Oak |
41.4 |
35.3 |
6.1 |
Should do well in this Art Shell offense. |
| RB |
Williams, Deangelo |
Car |
88.0 |
82.0 |
6.0 |
Just needs a chance. Very fast. |
| TE |
Miller, Heath |
Pit |
84.0 |
78.0 |
6.0 |
Increased redzone targets. |
| TE |
Cooley, Chris |
Was |
94.9 |
88.9 |
6.0 |
See bigger role with less than 100% Portis. |
| WR |
Reed, Josh |
Buf |
54.0 |
48.0 |
6.0 |
Offense is a bit better than I thought |
| WR |
Hagan, Derek |
Mia |
44.2 |
38.2 |
6.0 |
Rookie will see time this year. |
| WR |
Moss, Randy |
Oak |
188.8 |
182.8 |
6.0 |
Teasing us with big game in the preseason. |
| RB |
Parker, Willie |
Pit |
196.4 |
190.7 |
5.7 |
Rising up the ADP charts with a great preseason. |
| WR |
Engram, Bobby |
Sea |
87.3 |
81.6 |
5.7 |
Neck to neck with Burleson now. |
| RB |
Bell, Tatum |
Den |
143.6 |
138.0 |
5.6 |
Explosive in his limited carries. |
| WR |
Henry, Chris |
Cin |
56.7 |
51.5 |
5.2 |
Solid player if he can stay out of jail. |
| RB |
Bell, Mike |
Den |
152.0 |
146.9 |
5.1 |
Not wowing anyone, but no fumbles. |
| QB |
Brady, Tom |
NE |
293.8 |
288.8 |
5.0 |
Looks solid even without Branch playing. |
| WR |
Burleson, Nate |
Sea |
87.2 |
92.2 |
-5.0 |
Being outplayed by Engram. |
| WR |
Branch, Deion |
NE |
115.5 |
120.9 |
-5.4 |
Holdout deepening.Needs to get some reps. |
| WR |
Walker, Javon |
Den |
134.4 |
140.0 |
-5.6 |
Looks good, but likely #2 WR. |
| RB |
Haynes, Verron |
Pit |
72.6 |
78.2 |
-5.6 |
Team plans to use Parker more. |
| RB |
Droughns, Reuben |
Cle |
174.7 |
180.3 |
-5.6 |
Harrison is going to cut into his carries a little. |
| WR |
Dwight, Tim |
NYJ |
64.6 |
70.8 |
-6.2 |
One of many in the mix for WR2. |
| WR |
Williams, Mike |
Det |
42.0 |
49.2 |
-7.2 |
Falling fast. |
| RB |
Benson, Cedric |
Chi |
96.1 |
103.4 |
-7.3 |
Still not able to practice. |
| RB |
Morency, Vernand |
Hou |
63.7 |
72.1 |
-8.4 |
Likely the third down back. |
| WR |
Jurevicius, Joe |
Cle |
85.8 |
94.5 |
-8.7 |
Braylon Edwards is now the #1. |
| QB |
Vick, Michael |
Atl |
267.8 |
277.1 |
-9.3 |
Decreased rushing yards with emergence of Norwood. |
| QB |
Brees, Drew |
NO |
236.3 |
246.3 |
-10.0 |
Loss of Stallworth hurts. |
| WR |
Cotchery, Jerricho |
NYJ |
52.6 |
63.3 |
-10.7 |
Has not been impressive in the games. |
| WR |
Ward, Hines |
Pit |
150.5 |
162.1 |
-11.6 |
Still not practicing with hamstring problem. |
| RB |
Betts, Ladell |
Was |
48.5 |
61.2 |
-12.7 |
Odd mad out for carries |
| WR |
Baskett, Hank |
Phi |
48.1 |
61.2 |
-13.1 |
Stallworth pushes him to WR3. |
| WR |
Ferguson, Robert |
GB |
65.5 |
78.9 |
-13.4 |
Surpassed by Greg Jennings for the #2 role. |
| QB |
Roethlisberger, Ben |
Pit |
243.2 |
256.8 |
-13.7 |
Doesn't look very sharp yet. |
| WR |
Owens, Terrell |
Dal |
161.5 |
176.0 |
-14.5 |
Lingering hamstring issues.Has not practiced. |
| RB |
Anderson, Mike |
Bal |
72.4 |
87.0 |
-14.6 |
Musa Smith looking sharp. |
| QB |
Holcomb, Kelly |
Buf |
44.6 |
59.5 |
-14.9 |
Could end up as the third option at QB. |
| RB |
Davenport, Najeh |
GB |
65.4 |
82.5 |
-17.1 |
Ahman looks like he is 100% back. |
| RB |
White, LenDale |
Ten |
79.0 |
100.0 |
-21.0 |
Not separating himself from Chris Brown. |
| QB |
Griese, Brian |
Chi |
106.4 |
128.9 |
-22.6 |
Grossman has 9 lives with Lovie it seems |
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