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Projection Tweaks Explained
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Updated 8/21 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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In order to understand more why we are moving people up and down, we offer the following explanation. This is a comprehensive list on all movement +/- 5 fantasy points for players that project to have at least 40 FP this season.
Sorted by Overall Draft Position
| Pos |
Name |
Team |
New FP |
Old FP |
Diff |
Reason |
| RB |
Lundy, Wali |
Hou |
82.4 |
3.0 |
79.4 |
Making a case to be the starting RB. |
| QB |
Griese, Brian |
Chi |
128.9 |
55.9 |
73.1 |
Fully expect him to be the starting QB soon. |
| RB |
Bell, Mike |
Den |
146.9 |
98.9 |
48.0 |
Didn't
fumble and scored two TDs. |
| QB |
Losman, J.P. |
Buf |
129.5 |
82.0 |
47.6 |
Should win the starting job now. |
| RB |
Robinson, Michael |
SF |
42.0 |
5.9 |
36.1 |
Increased role after Barlow exit. |
| RB |
Morency, Vernand |
Hou |
72.1 |
39.5 |
32.6 |
Also in the mix for carries if Dom Davis can't go. |
| RB |
Hicks, Maurice |
SF |
50.0 |
26.7 |
23.3 |
Will backup Frank Gore |
| WR |
Reed, Josh |
Buf |
48.0 |
26.4 |
21.6 |
Somebody has to catch the passes. |
| RB |
Gore, Frank |
SF |
161.7 |
142.3 |
19.4 |
Now the starting RB |
| RB |
Green, Ahman |
GB |
123.1 |
105.8 |
17.3 |
Back on the practice field. |
| TE |
Sheffler, Tony |
Den |
50.6 |
34.4 |
16.2 |
Impressive in both preseason games |
| RB |
Haynes, Verron |
Pit |
78.2 |
63.4 |
14.8 |
Primary backup and increased goal work likely. |
| WR |
Williams, Mike |
Det |
49.2 |
35.6 |
13.6 |
Starting to have some role in the offense. |
| RB |
Maroney, Laurence |
NE |
122.6 |
109.5 |
13.1 |
Would vault up the board if Dillon went down. |
| RB |
Davenport, Najeh |
GB |
82.5 |
69.6 |
12.9 |
Running well in camp. |
| WR |
Wayne, Reggie |
Ind |
165.4 |
152.5 |
12.9 |
Looks to have an equal role with Harrison this season. |
| RB |
Westbrook, Brian |
Phi |
191.5 |
179.1 |
12.4 |
Injury does not look serious. |
| RB |
Barlow, Kevan |
NYJ |
107.3 |
95.8 |
11.5 |
New team should be increased opportunity |
| RB |
Taylor, Fred |
Jac |
114.7 |
103.6 |
11.1 |
Still the starter if he can stay healthy |
| WR |
Crayton, Patrick |
Dal |
46.1 |
36.0 |
10.1 |
Cowboys don't acquire a new WR |
| RB |
Foster, De'shaun |
Car |
177.1 |
167.7 |
9.4 |
He looks way ahead of Williams at this point |
| QB |
McNabb, Donovan |
Phi |
284.3 |
276.9 |
7.4 |
In mid-season form right now |
| WR |
Edwards, Braylon |
Cle |
90.2 |
82.8 |
7.4 |
Miracle recovery time.
May start opener. |
| WR |
Johnson, Keyshawn |
Car |
110.7 |
104.7 |
6.0 |
Redistributed TDs, Keyshawn got another |
| QB |
McNair, Steve |
Bal |
248.4 |
242.8 |
5.6 |
Looks in control with Mason around. |
| WR |
Wilford, Ernest |
Jac |
112.9 |
107.8 |
5.1 |
Locking up the #2 job. |
| RB |
Johnson, Rudi |
Cin |
224.1 |
219.1 |
5.0 |
Chris Perry hobbled. |
| QB |
Pennington, Chad |
NYJ |
170.6 |
175.7 |
-5.1 |
OL issues, sketchy WR play, weak arm. |
| RB |
Anderson, Mike |
Bal |
87.0 |
92.4 |
-5.4 |
Likely to be used more as a FB |
| RB |
Pearman, Alvin |
Jac |
40.6 |
46.2 |
-5.6 |
Greg Jones and Fred Taylor keep him down |
| WR |
Jurevicius, Joe |
Cle |
94.5 |
100.5 |
-6.0 |
Braylon getting some of Joe's targets |
| TE |
Shockey, Jeremy |
NYG |
115.3 |
121.3 |
-6.0 |
One less passing TD. |
| RB |
Tomlinson, Ladainian |
SD |
297.9 |
303.9 |
-6.0 |
One less rushing TD. |
| WR |
Jackson, Chad |
NE |
66.7 |
72.7 |
-6.0 |
In logjam behind other WRs right now. |
| WR |
Harrison, Marvin |
Ind |
176.5 |
183.3 |
-6.8 |
Closer distribution between Wayne and Harrison |
| QB |
Smith, Alex |
SF |
216.4 |
223.5 |
-7.1 |
Improving, but SF offense is still a big work in progress. |
| QB |
Rivers, Philip |
SD |
248.2 |
255.5 |
-7.3 |
Tempered expectations a tad. |
| TE |
Gonzalez, Tony |
KC |
112.5 |
120.0 |
-7.5 |
Will need to stay in and block more this year with holes on
the OL. |
| RB |
Droughns, Reuben |
Cle |
180.3 |
189.5 |
-9.2 |
Lowered TD expecttaions. |
| RB |
Bush, Reggie |
NO |
188.8 |
198.3 |
-9.5 |
Enthusiasm brought back in check. |
| QB |
Palmer, Carson |
Cin |
242.7 |
254.3 |
-11.6 |
Big unknown as to his mobility. Will get upgrade if he looks good next
week. |
| RB |
Addai, Joseph |
Ind |
126.9 |
139.4 |
-12.5 |
Runs strong, but seems lost in blocking schemes |
| RB |
Faulk, Kevin |
NE |
55.1 |
67.7 |
-12.6 |
Maroney is going to need extra carries. |
| WR |
Henry, Chris |
Cin |
51.5 |
64.4 |
-12.9 |
Could face 4 game suspension. |
| WR |
Owens, Terrell |
Dal |
176.0 |
189.5 |
-13.5 |
Lingering hamstring issue could be with him all year. |
| RB |
Johnson, Larry |
KC |
320.9 |
334.8 |
-13.9 |
Roaf retirement looks legit and not just a training camp play. |
| WR |
Davis, Andre' |
Buf |
48.8 |
67.0 |
-18.2 |
Likely limited role. |
| TE |
Stevens, Jerramy |
Sea |
59.8 |
78.2 |
-18.4 |
Out until October. |
| WR |
Branch, Deion |
NE |
120.9 |
140.4 |
-19.5 |
Nasty holdout continues. |
| RB |
Lewis, Jamal |
Bal |
165.1 |
186.2 |
-21.1 |
Will miss next two weeks |
| RB |
Bell, Tatum |
Den |
138.0 |
160.2 |
-22.2 |
Mike Bell holds off Tatum for now. |
| QB |
Bledsoe, Drew |
Dal |
245.8 |
272.1 |
-26.4 |
Age, mobility makes us a bit cautious. Romo also looks sharp. |
| RB |
Williams, Deangelo |
Car |
82.0 |
109.3 |
-27.3 |
Has upside, but Foster and Goings will get the carries early
this season. |
| RB |
Gado, Samkon |
GB |
43.5 |
75.1 |
-31.6 |
Ahman is back and Gado isn't even 2nd string right now. |
| RB |
Perry, Chris |
Cin |
57.8 |
90.6 |
-32.8 |
Major health issues. |
| RB |
Staley, Duce |
Pit |
43.3 |
81.9 |
-38.6 |
Age catching up to him.
I see a reduced role. |
| RB |
Houston, Cedric |
NYJ |
63.9 |
114.4 |
-50.5 |
Signing of Barlow pushes him from top spot |
| QB |
Holcomb, Kelly |
Buf |
59.5 |
110.2 |
-50.8 |
JP Losman emerging as the #1 QB |
| RB |
Davis, Domanick |
Hou |
91.7 |
150.0 |
-58.3 |
Biggest unknown going into drafts. My gut tells me to avoid
him. |
| QB |
Grossman, Rex |
Chi |
55.8 |
127.7 |
-71.9 |
Don't see him holding off Griese all year. |
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