My personal selection here would be to target Brett Favre. He usually can be drafted at the end of the ninth round and represents excellent value in leagues that don't have huge penalties for interceptions.

The biggest risk/reward pick is likely Kurt Warner. With the weapons he has at wide receiver, he could easily be a top 5 quarterback for the games he plays this season. If you can handcuff him with a reasonable backup at QB, you should get excellent production from this position all season. The obvious downside with selecting Warner is his ability to stay healthy.

After you have selected your starting quarterback within this "sweet spot" look to target either Jon Kitna or Philip Rivers as your backup. Both are running high-powered offenses that could yield excellent fantasy production. And both can be drafted around the 12th round.

The upside regarding Jon Kitna is he now is running the Mike Martz offense in Detroit. That same offense has yielded great QB play in St. Louis for years (Warner MVP, Bulger, even lofty stats for the QBs in relief). Martz likes to pass to setup more passing. He is a quarterback's best friend. Make no mistake about it, the QB in this offense will put up huge fantasy statistics. He represents outstanding value drafted anywhere near his ADP of 134 (11th/12th round).

Philip Rivers is an unknown commodity. But the offense isn't. Drew Brees put up lofty numbers the last two years in San Diego throwing to Gates, Tomlinson and McCardell. Everyone else is back. The praise for Rivers out of the San Diego training camp is glowing. He has looked great in the preseason games. He is a very smart player who understands defenses very well. But he is unknown. And because he has never played, his stock is at an all-time low. Grab him now while the risk/reward is the best it will ever be. He also represents outstanding value drafted anywhere near his ADP of 125 (middle of 11th round).

One last note on QBs. With the departure of TD vulture TJ Duckett, Michael Vick could see a lot of goal line action this year. Don't reach for him, but he represents very good value around his ADP of 86 (8th round).

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. Every owner wants three or four quality backs. In 12-team leagues this creates huge demand with limited supply.

My strategy for the perfect 12-team draft is to try and secure two of the top 14 elite backs this season and use some controversial team situations to secure a team with great RB depth.

Here are the elite 14 RBs according to my rankings (feel free to move them around to your liking):

1. Larry Johnson, KC
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
3. Shaun Alexander, Sea
4. Tiki Barber, NYG
5. Steven Jackson, StL
6. Rudi Johnson, Cin
7. Ronnie Brown, Mia
8. Carnell Williams, TB
9. Edgerrin James, Ari
10. Lamont Jordan, Oak
11. Willie Parker, Pit
12. Willis McGahee, Buf
13. Reggie Bush, NO
14. Reuben Droughns, Cle

Your ideal goal is to get two of these players and let the other owners fight over the table scraps that are left at the position. To get two from this list, an owner will likely need to pick RBs with their first two selections. It's possible that Bush, Parker and/or Droughns could slide to the third round, but I would not count on it.

There is not a single player from another position that I would take before these elite 14 players. Not Manning. Not Steve Smith. No one. Even though selecting Bush or Droughns this early might be considered a slight reach, every RB taken after these 14 will be even bigger reaches. That's the supply and demand curve at work here. Sure Peyton Manning's VBD number shows he is better value than Bush. But as I have outlined above, a quality QB can still be had after round 10. That is definitely not the case at the running back position.

Note one back (who will likely go in round 1 or 2) is missing. That is Clinton Portis. We were expecting great things from him this year. That could still be the case, but his recent shoulder injury puts a cloud over his whole season to me. It's pretty much an unknown situation. The fact that his team gave up a third round draft pick to trade for TD vulture TJ Duckett also tells us to stay away. I think Portis workload is going to be reduced a lot and I expect him to be lifted at the goal line. The problem I see with this injury is Portis could start virtually every game, but get lifted after a tough hit and Betts or Duckett finishes. With painkillers, Portis then starts again the following week, but without taking any hits in practice. So this situation could just be ugly every single week until he has surgery in the offseason. I believe someone will assume this risk though and Portis will be drafted in the top 12 in most leagues this year. Personally I would pass unless I could get him in the 4th round (very unlikely).

Another player noticeably absent from my elite list is Brian Westbrook. I think he has incredible talent and will no doubt do great things in every game he plays. I just don't feel comfortable that Westbrook can stay healthy. He always seems to be nicked. In the late second, he represents good value, but he will likely already be drafted then (His ADP is 13).

The good news is everyone won't be drafting to this plan. Expect Portis, Westbrook, some of the elite receivers plus Manning to go in the second round (if not earlier) in most drafts across the country. What if one of the elite 14 RBs (likely Bush or Droughns) is still available when you draft again in the third? Don't even hesitate. Draft the last one proudly. You can use this strength later to pick up value at WR while others are taking fliers at risky RBs.

But two backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.

Here are other situation that I think represent value this year:

Joseph Addai, Ind (Value = 56, ADP = 49) / Dominic Rhodes, Ind (Value = 49, ADP = 69) handcuff - The value of these picks is getting both players in the high-powered Colts offense. Rhodes will likely start the year, but has shown to have injury problems in the past. As soon as Addai shows he can pick up the blitz schemes, his talent should make him the starter. Getting them both should represent great value. To get them both, look to get Addai late in the 4th round and follow up with Rhodes no later than the sixth.

DeShaun Foster, Car (Value = 27, ADP = 41) - The Panthers' HC John Fox loves to run the ball. And with a great overall team, the Panthers will be using the run to hold on to leads late in ball games. They drafted their future in Deangelo Williams. The question is when does the future start? From what I have seen from DeAngelo this preseason, I think he is a year away. Deshaun Foster is running with purpose and if he can stay healthy should remain the unquestioned starter this year. The staying healthy part is a big IF though.

Frank Gore, SF (Value = 35, ADP = 59) - Even before the 49ers moved Barlow to the Jets, we loved Gore's situation. Unfortunately now his stock is rising fast. He still represents solid value late in the 4th round (or later). The 49ers will likely struggle offensively, but Gore should still put up decent numbers.

Thomas Jones, Chi (Value = 53, ADP 60) - I don't believe for a minute that Cedric Benson is a better runner than Thomas Jones. I think Benson is soft, still doesn't know the blitz pickups and now has an injured shoulder. The buzz around the league is his teammates don't care much for him. The Bears are too good in my opinion, to run this as full-blown RBBC. I expect Jones to win the job and be the starter this season. If it plays out that way, Jones offers tremendous value before the end of round 5.

Tatum Bell, Den (Value = 50, ADP = 76) - First Ron Dayne and now Mike Bell are the starters. The reason stated by HC Shanahan is that Tatum wears down as the game goes on. But what if that were to change? What if Tatum looked good just once in a 4th quarter? I don't believe for a minute that Mike Shanahan actually thinks Mike Bell offers more upside than Tatum Bell as the starting tailback. We have all seen the Bell explosive runs. But whatever reason, Bell has not been given much of a chance to be the #1 this year. That fact though has kept his value very low. Even if Tatum never wins the starting job, he will likely put up enough stats to justify a low ADP of 76. I feel that is his floor. His ceiling? If he were to win the starting job sometime this year, he could be the steal of the draft.

Laurence Maroney, NE (Value = 66, ADP = 77) - This is all about whether Maroney will get his chance this year. Corey Dillon has looked a step slow to me for years now. If Dillon were to get injured or benched, Maroney's stock would explode. He represents a nice swing for the fences in the seventh round. I have seen enough in the preseason to KNOW this kid is MONEY.

Wali Lundy, Hou (Value = 113, ADP = 171) - Domanick Davis is having serious knee issues. He might not even see the field this year. That opens the door to Antowain Smith, Wali Lundy, and Vernand Morency. With this team not in serious contention for the playoffs, I am souring on them using Antowain Smith. Rookie Wali Lundy has been impressive in the preseason and is still flying below the radar in a lot of leagues. He represents solid value around the 11th round.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is implementing the QB and RB strategies from steps one and two above. By waiting at QB until round seven or later and grabbing two or three RBs early, you have the fourth, fifth and sixth or seventh rounds (and possibly the third round) to grab quality WRs. And this is exactly what you should do.

By the end of round four, you should have at least two quality RBs and one or two quality wide receivers.

Although a team constructed like this won't have a horse like Steve Smith or Larry Fitzgerald, it should end up with a great team full of players in very secure situations. These players are also great for trading after the draft.

There is almost always great value late in a draft at wide receiver too, and this year is no exception. But you will want the core talent to build around (especially in start 3 WRs leagues - which this article is based on).

Here are the WRs I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

Donald Driver, GB (Value = 39, ADP = 44) - He is the one stable piece (besides Favre) in Green Bay. Expect him to get a lot of balls again. He could challenge the top WRs in the league for most receptions. Target him in the 4th round or later.

TJ Housmandzadeh, Cin (Value = 44, ADP = 55) - Chad Johnson gets all the press, but TJ is a fine receiver in his own right. Target him in the 5th round or later.

Eddie Kennison, KC (Value = 55, ADP = 85) - I am amazed every year how everyone writes this guy off. He has represented solid value for many years in a row now. Target him in the 7th or 8th round for exceptional value. Because of the huge disparity of value vs ADP, he should be on all of your rosters in leagues that I am not playing in.

Laveranues Coles, NYJ (Value = 67, ADP = 91) - Yes I know he plays for the Jets. And no I do not expect big things from this offense this year. But who else is going to catch the ball? Coles will get a lot of receptions by default. Target him in the 8th round.

Muhsin Muhammad, Chi (Value = 69, ADP = 94) - Another quality receiver playing for a sub-par offense. But at this price there is no downside. Scoop him up in the 8th round.

Terry Glenn (Value = 73, ADP = 95) - I won't be shocked at all to see Terry Glenn have a HUGE year. With Terrell Owens in the game, Glenn will be facing single coverage all year. Seeing how Glenn has ALWAYS faced double teams and the best defenders and still put up stats....well you see where this is going. Factor in the possibility of a TO blowup or lingering hamstring issues and Glenn offers exceptional value this year. He also knows the playbook better than Owens and has an outstanding relationship with Bledsoe. Target Glenn in the 8th round.

Troy Williamson (Value = 87, ADP = 158) - Just pencil this guy on your roster right now. Unless you are drafting against other Footballguys, Williamson represents the homerun for pennies this season. Koren Robinson is going to be suspended for the year. He already had two strikes in the drug program and was pulled over for a DUI. Forget his day in court. The team will likely cut him before it even gets to that. Williamson, by default vaults to the #1 WR in Minnesota. Don't let this one get away. Grab him and laugh anytime after the 10th round.

Ernest Wilford (Value = 89, ADP = 127) - Here is another guy that is flying below the radar. He is very slow. But having watched him play a lot last year, he finds a way to get separation. He is a very good in the redzone. I think he has an excellent chance to be the main receiver for the Jaguars this season. Target him in the 11th round or later.

Samie Parker, KC (Value = 105, ADP = 184) - Yes, someone other than Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez have value on the Chiefs. Samie represents excellent value in the 13th or later.

Cedric Wilson, Pit (Value = 122, ADP = 237) - He emerged last year and now gets no respect. The Steelers drafted a highly touted rookie (Santonio Holmes), but I fully expect Cedric to keep him on the pine this year. Target Wilson in the 16th round or later.

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap, grab one or two solid receivers in your first four rounds and add at least one more in rounds five and six. Then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.

Antonio Gates is in a class by himself. But with an average draft slot at 26, he should be avoided. In fact, most of the big names at this position should be avoided due to the depth at the position.

Go ahead and scratch off these names: Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, Jason Witten, Randy McMichael and Chris Cooley. Only Todd Heap represents value this year.

But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position late in a draft.

It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

This year there is one tight end that I expect to have on nearly every one of my teams this season. That tight end is New England's Ben Watson.

Ben Watson, NE (Value = 98, ADP = 110) is in a perfect situation to vault into elite status this year. The New England receiving core has been thinned due to the departure of David Givens to free agency. The Patriots defense looks to be significantly weaker which should yield to more shootouts. The Patriots' Corey Dillon appears to have lost a step and the team may have trouble running the ball in 2006. Enter Ben Watson, the strong, fast and athletic tight end that was drafted at the bottom of round 1 in 2005. Ben showed that he could take over a game in the first round of the playoffs last season. He led all Patriots with 10 targets, 91 receiving yards, and the longest reception of the game. With an ADP of nearly 110, Ben can be drafted around the 10th rounds of most drafts.

Here are the other TEs I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

Place Kickers

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 14 this season. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 14. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

I only see one PK that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken.

I suggest you wait until round 13 to assess what to do about this position. If Chicago, Carolina or Pittsburgh are on the board when you pick in round 13, grab one, and be done with this position. If those three teams are gone, I would wait until six to eight defenses have been drafted and then see where the value is.

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

A winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing San Francisco, Buffalo, Oakland or Houston, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against sub-par competition. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

Putting It All Together

Look to draft two of the elite 14 RBs with your first two picks. Make these backs the centerpiece of your team. Look to add De'shaun Foster, Frank Gore, or the Indianapolis handcuff for depth in rounds three through nine. Avoid taking mid-round fliers that mostly bust.

QB value is available throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Look to grab your first QB after 10 or 11 have been taken. Add Philip Rivers or Jon Kitna late.

Grab at least one quality WR (in rounds two through four), and then add at least one more solid contributor in rounds five and six. Then wait for value to emerge. It always does. Stockpile value wide receivers. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. In start 3 WR leagues, allocate 8 roster spots for wide receivers.

Sluff TE and target Ben Watson in the 10th round.

Sluff defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second one in round 13. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense. Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.

Sluff kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second on your list in round 14. If kickers go early, take the fifth to eighth kicker off the board.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Note: I know there is more than one way to have a great draft. I have seen teams take players like Manning and Chad Johnson with their first two picks and run away with titles by picking undervalued players the rest of the way. I am not going to state that this article is the ONLY way to be successful in your twelve team draft. It's simply one way to end up with a very competitive team.

One of the hardest things about writing this "generic" solution is it does not take in the tendencies of the people you are drafting against. In leagues where RBs slide later than most, I would advocate grabbing one of the elite WRs in round two. This way you are able to take advantage of these RBs going later than normal.